NIL Money Affecting NBA Draft

This year’s drop is significant when compared to the years before anyone had heard of COVID-19. There was a spike of college players jumping into the draft in the pandemic’s aftermath, when they were granted a free eligibility year to temporarily make even a fourth-year senior an “early” entrant.

But those numbers had fallen as those five-year players cycled out of college basketball, and they’re now below pre-pandemic levels. That decline coincides with NIL’s July 2021 arrival, from athletes doing paid appearances or social-media endorsements to boosters forming collectives offering NIL packages amounting to de facto salaries.

As a result:

— Eighty-two players appeared on the NBA’s list of early entrants primarily from American colleges with a smattering of other teams, down 49% from 2024 (162) and nearly 47% compared to the four-year average from 2016-19 (153.5);

— Thirty-two remained after withdrawal deadlines, down from 62 last year and 72.0 from 2016-19;

— Adding international prospects, 109 players declared for the draft, down from 201 last year and 205.0 from 2016-19;

More college players weighing options

Duke coach Jon Scheyer understands draft dynamics, both for no-doubt headliners and prospects facing less clarity. He sees college athlete compensation as a “legitimate gamechanger.”

“Hopefully it allows players to decide what’s truly best for their game,” Scheyer told the AP. “It allows them to analyze: ‘Am I actually ready for this or not?’ Where money doesn’t have to be the deciding factor. Because if money’s the deciding factor, that’s why you see kids not stick. The NBA’s cutthroat. It just is.”

The Blue Devils are expected to have three players selected in the first-round Wednesday, including presumptive No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg alongside top-10 prospects Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach. They also had players sorting through draft decisions.

Freshman Isaiah Evans — a slender wing with explosive scoring potential — withdrew instead of chasing first-round status through the draft process. Incoming transfer Cedric Coward from Washington State rapidly rose draft boards after the combine and remained in the draft.

“There’s no substituting the money you’re going to make if you’re a top-15, top-20 pick,” said Scheyer, entering Year 4 as successor to retired Hall of Famer Mike Krzyzewski. “But if you’re not solidified as a first-round pick, why risk it when you can have a solid year and a chance to go up or be in the same position the following season?”

College compensation is re-shaping the draft pool

Langdon, himself a former Duke first-rounder, sees that evolution, too.

His Pistons had their first playoff appearance since 2019, but lack a first-round selection and own a single pick in Thursday’s second round. Fewer candidates could make the already imperfect science of drafting even trickier in this new reality.

According to the NBA’s 2024-25 rookie scale, a player going midway through the first round would make roughly $3.5 million in first-year salary. That figure would drop to about $2.8 million at pick No. 20, $2.3 million at No. 25 and $2.1 million with the 30th and final first-round draftee.

AP Basketball Writer Tim Reynolds and AP Sports Writer Larry Lage contributed to this report.

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AP NBA: https://apnews.com/nba