NIL
North Carolina vs. TCU score prediction by expert football model


Bill Belichick makes his anticipated college football debut on Monday night as North Carolina welcomes Big 12 hopeful TCU in this Week 1 matchup. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.
All eyes are on Bill Belichick, the eight-time Super Bowl champion considered the single-most accomplished coach in NFL history, as he takes on a brand new challenge for himself, never having coached in the collegiate ranks in his career.
And his roster is something of a mystery, undergoing considerable turnover all over the field, and debuting South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez at the quarterback position, a player who brings a reputation as a dual-threat playmaker behind center.
In the Tar Heels’ way in Belichick’s debut is TCU, three years removed from playing for the national championship, just 14-11 overall since then, but coming off an improved 9-4 outing last season and returning a key piece at the most important position.
Josh Hoover reprises his role at quarterback for the Horned Frogs, a year after leading college football’s eighth-ranked passing offense, achieving career-highs with 3,949 passing yards on nearly 66 percent of his pass attempts, throwing 27 touchdowns, and averaging more than 8 yards per pass.
What do the analytics suggest as the Tar Heels and Horned Frogs meet on the same field?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how North Carolina and TCU compare in this Week 1 college football game.
As with most projections, this model is siding with the visiting team against Belichick’s squad in the opener, but by a pretty narrow margin.
SP+ predicts that TCU will defeat North Carolina by a projected score of 32 to 27 and to win the game by an expected margin of 5 points in the process.
The model gives the Horned Frogs a decent 62 percent chance of outright victory.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.
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Along with the models, the sportsbooks are also giving a slight edge to the Horned Frogs over their ACC counterparts in this road game.
TCU is a narrow 3.5 point favorite against North Carolina, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup.
And it set the moneyline odds for TCU at -166 and for North Carolina at +138 to win the game outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors heading into this matchup.
TCU is getting a slight majority of bets to take care of the Tar Heels in this Week 1 opener, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
A majority 56 percent of bets are siding with the Horned Frogs to beat Belichick’s team by at least four points and cover the narrow point spread.
The other 44 percent of wagers project North Carolina will either defeat TCU outright at home in the upset, or keep the margin to a field goal or less in a loss.
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Most other analytical football models are also siding with the Horned Frogs over the Tar Heels.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.
TCU is the favorite over North Carolina on the index, coming out ahead in the majority 58.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.
That leaves the Tar Heels as the presumptive winner in the remaining 41.3 percent of sims.
How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?
TCU is projected to be 5.9 points better than North Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that would also be enough for the Frogs to cover the spread against the Heels.
How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.
Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.
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Despite the lull from the national title game season, Sonny Dykes is still very successful at TCU overall, winning 27 of 40 games since taking over the program, and his current team is expected to finish convincingly in the better half of the competitive Big 12 this year.
Hoover’s return bodes extremely well for TCU, which will want to get its receivers out in the open early against a Carolina secondary that could let them.
Plenty of college football programs undergo roster changes every year, especially in the transfer portal era, but what UNC has gone through is another animal, with 70 newcomers to the program by transfer or from high school.
Even with continuity, the Tar Heels’ defense left something to be desired last season, ranking 89th in scoring, 80th against the pass, and 72nd in total production.
Belichick is known as a great defensive strategist, and his ability to build something out of this unit, combined with Lopez’s mobility, should keep Carolina within striking distance, but the Horned Frogs have more proven firepower moving the ball.
College Football HQ picks: TCU beats North Carolina and covers the spread.
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When: Mon., Sept. 1
Where: North Carolina
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
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NIL
Dylan Stewart, top 2027 NFL prospect, stays with Gamecocks, lands major NIL deal
COLUMBIA, S.C. (WCIV) — One day after South Carolina received word that star quarterback LaNorris Sellers was staying in town, another star said he plans to return to the fold.
Dylan Stewart, the Gamecocks’ star edge rusher, announced he is returning for his true junior season in 2026, according to Pete Thamel, ESPN’s college football insider.
Stewart has 11 sacks in his two seasons at South Carolina and has forced 6 fumbles. Among ESPN’s draft projections, he appears to be a top prospect for the 2027 NFL Draft.
READ MORE | “South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers stays put, vows stronger return for 2026 season.”
The former five-star recruit and rising SEC pass rusher chose continuity over the transfer portal, agreeing to an NIL deal that places him among the highest compensated non-quarterbacks in college football, according to ESPN’s reporting.
South Carolina’s defense is back in reliable hands, as the Gamecocks ready themselves to bounceback from a 4-8 season.
After the pitiful finish, South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer shook up his coaching staff.
South Carolina is also expected to hire Penn State defensive line coach Deion Barnes as the defensive end and outside linebacker coach.
He’s been Penn State’s defensive line coach the past three years and worked with the line there since 2020. He coached Abdul Carter, Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac.
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READ MORE | “South Carolina to kick off 2026 football season at home against Kent State.”
NIL
Minnesota Football: Kerry Brown and three other Gophers to return for 2026
Safety Kerry Brown, cornerback John Nestor, and offensive linemen Greg Johnson and Nathan Roy all announced their return to Minnesota next season through the NIL collective Dinkytown Athletes on Tuesday. All four were starters this season and represent key returnees for the Gophers next season.
The announcements are part of Cub Foods’ contribution to Dinkytown Athletes.
These types of announcements have become commonplace in college football today, driven by the introduction of NIL and revenue-sharing agreements, as well as the transfer portal.
More announcements are expected in the coming days and weeks, so stay tuned.
NIL
Unexpected college football program among favorites for $2 million transfer QB
Florida quarterback DJ Lagway, a former five-star recruit and two-year starter, is now in the transfer portal after a 2025 season defined by inconsistency and organizational change in Gainesville.
In 2025, Lagway completed 213 of 337 passes (63.2%) for 2,264 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, while adding 136 rushing yards and a rushing score.
However, the turnovers and a string of uneven performances contributed to a 4–8 season (2-6 SEC) for Florida and intensified scrutiny on the program’s direction.
Florida dismissed fourth-year head coach Billy Napier on October 19 following a 3–4 start and later hired Tulane’s Jon Sumrall to lead the program forward, a change that has prompted several top players to explore fresh starts.
Several Power Five programs have emerged as early fits for Lagway, with Baylor, LSU, and Miami frequently mentioned by national outlets.
Recently, On3’s Pete Nakos singled out Baylor, noting that home-state proximity and family ties to Waco could make the Bears an appealing landing spot.

A five-star dual-threat quarterback from Willis, Texas, Lagway entered college as one of the top prospects in the 2024 class, ranking as 247Sports’ No. 1 quarterback before signing with Florida in December 2022.
Lagway threw for 4,605 yards and 59 touchdowns as a senior, adding 953 rushing yards and 16 scores on the ground to earn Gatorade National Player of the Year honors.
He drew more than 30 offers from several Power Five programs, including Baylor, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Clemson, before committing to the Gators.
From a marketplace standpoint, Lagway arrives in January’s portal with considerable commercial value.
On3’s NIL tracker lists Lagway with an estimated valuation near $2.0 million, and the quarterback already has multiple reported brand partnerships, including Hollister, Red Bull, and Mercedes-Benz of Gainesville.
For Baylor, Lagway would offer a marketable, high-upside option who can start right away, with 2025 starter Sawyer Robertson expected to enter the 2026 NFL Draft.
Read More at College Football HQ
- Major college football team reportedly does not have ‘any interest’ in $2.4 million QB
- No. 1 college football team predicted to sign $2.1 million transfer QB
- Major college football program loses 15 players to transfer portal
- College Football Playoff team has ‘significant interest’ in 4,000-yard QB
NIL
$2.4 million transfer QB reportedly down to three college football programs
Bevies of college football players have made the decision to enter the NCAA transfer portal in the 2026 offseason.
In the weeks leading up to the portal’s opening, quarterbacks have dominated the headlines surrounding the entrants in the 2026 offseason. DJ Lagway, Brendan Sorsby, Dylan Raiola and Josh Hoover are among the most recent entries into the portal at quarterback.
The first well-known entry into the portal at quarterback was Sam Leavitt of Arizona State. Leavitt is entering the portal with two seasons of eligibility left.
The next school Leavitt transfers to will be his third in his college football journey. The 6-foot-3, 225-pounder began his collegiate career at Michigan State for his redshirt freshman season in 2023.
He has passed for 4,652 yards, 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while rushing for 810 yards and 10 touchdowns in three seasons. He earned Second Team All-Big 12 distinction and Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2024.
While the portal has not officially opened, three schools have begun to separate themselves in the race for Sam Leavitt. Below is a look at the three schools that appear to be the final choices for Leavitt in the coming weeks.
LSU

Only two of the four quarterbacks to start for Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss were recruited by the Rebels out of high school. Both Jaxson Dart (USC) and Trinidad Chambliss (Ferris State) arrived in Oxford via the transfer portal.
LSU also has a strong track record with quarterbacks transferring in over the last decade, as both Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels won Heisman Trophies two years after transferring in. As it relates to Leavitt, Daniels came to Baton Rouge by way of Arizona State in the 2022 offseason.
Oregon
Oregon has established itself as a destination for quarterbacks out of the transfer portal. Anthony Brown (Boston College), Bo Nix (Auburn), Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma), and Dante Moore (UCLA) have all transferred to the Ducks and have each won 10 or more games in each season.
Adding to Leavitt’s interest in Oregon is its proximity to his hometown. He is from West Linn, Oregon, a suburb located just south of Portland.
Indiana

Indiana is the final school Leavitt is eyeing. The transfer portal has been crucial to Indiana fielding successful quarterbacks under Curt Cignetti.
The Hoosiers grabbed Kurtis Rourke from Ohio in the 2024 offseason and immediately went to a College Football Playoff the following season. California transfer Fernando Mendoza immediately won a Big Ten Championship and a Heisman Trophy and clinched the No. 1 seed in the 2025 College Football Playoff.
NIL
Missouri DE Damon Wilson II countersues Georgia, setting up a potentially major NIL legal battle
A messy player-school NIL dispute just got messier.
Less than a month after Georgia sued Damon Wilson II for transfer damages, Missouri’s star pass rusher filed a countersuit against Georgia, setting up a potentially precedent-setting NIL legal battle between an athlete and school.
“Recent court decisions have changed the landscape of college football and paved the way for NIL payments,” Bogdan Susan, one of Wilson’s attorneys, told PowerMizzou.com. “What has not changed is that college football players still have only four years of competition to realize their potential and try to achieve their dreams of playing in the NFL. A lot of trust is put into the colleges and coaching staffs. Coaches are not limited to four years of competition. The University of Georgia has been playing football for over 133 years. Damon has four years to play and he spent half of that time at Georgia. Decisions to transfer are not always about money. Stopping a young man from pursuing his dreams by forcing him to pay money that he has not received is just wrong.”
Wilson filed a 42-page complaint in Boone County, Mo. on Tuesday morning, an action first reported by The Athletic, alleging a civil conspiracy involving Georgia and its collective for trying to “penalize Wilson for his decision to transfer.” The defendants named in the suit are the University of Georgia Athletic Association, the Classic City Collective and former Classic City CEO’s Matt Hibbs and Taylor Potts.
The suit alleges Georgia didn’t immediately put Wilson’s name in the transfer portal last January and also lied about his buyout, telling multiple unnamed Power 4 programs that they’d owe Georgia $1.2 million if Wilson transferred to their school.
“UGAA’s actions signal that it is stuck in its old ways. The era of universities exerting total control over the career trajectories and rights of their student-athletes has been dead for nearly half a decade. Nonetheless, UGAA has demonstrated that, left to its own devices, it will attempt to exploit every loophole to deprive student-athletes like Wilson of the ability to reap the benefits of full and fair competition for their NIL rights. 23. No longer willing to endure UGAA’s harassment campaign and ready to hold UGAA and CCC accountable for their tortious interference with his business expectations when he entered the portal and chose to transfer, their breach of the Term Sheet’s Confidentiality Agreement, and UGAA’s efforts to tarnish his reputation as he pursues his lifelong dream of playing in the NFL, Wilson brings this action.”
Wilson’s claim hinges largely on the document signed by the player, the Classic City Collective and Hibbs and Potts. The involved parties signed a term sheet. Wilson’s suit claims the term sheet is not binding.
“The Term Sheet stated that it ‘preced[es]’ a ‘full License and Option Agreement,’ and specifically provided: ‘In the event the parties agree to this Term Sheet, then they shall work cooperatively to set forth these terms in a full legal contract including all the standard provisions of NIL licensing agreements.’ The Term Sheet further stated that Wilson ‘should seek legal counsel before finalizing the full License and Option Agreement.'”
The suit claims that Wilson, as part of a group of Georgia players, “without counsel present and with UGAA employees telling him that time was of the essence.” The suit alleges not only that Wilson signed the term sheet under pressure, but that the full binding contract was never presented, much less signed.
“The parties thus never executed a legally binding agreement containing any of the provisions in the Term Sheet,” the suit states.
The suit further claims that UGAA and the Classic City Collective violated the term sheet’s confidentiality agreement “by disclosing one or more of the Term Sheet’s provisions to sympathetic news outlets and affiliates to tarnish Wilson’s reputation.”
This is believed to be the first time a school and an athlete have taken each other to court over an NIL issue. The resolution could depend on whether or not Wilson’s NIL agreement with Georgia’s collective was a binding contract.
The UGAA lawsuit against Wilson recently filed seeks liquidated damages of $390,000. Wilson’s countersuit claims those funds are not liquidated damages, but instead penalties for transferring from Georgia.
“A penalty provision masquerading as a “liquidated damages” provision is unenforceable,” the filing reads. “It makes no effort to reasonably quantify damages that are difficult to ascertain, and it serves only to penalize Wilson for his decision to enter the transfer portal.”
Wilson’s suit also alleges defamation against UGAA, referencing a statement from Chief Marketing Officer Steven Drummond made to ESPN: “When the University of Georgia Athletic Association enters binding agreements with student-athletes, we honor our commitments and expect student-athletes to do the same.”
The suit clams “UGAA’s statement implies that Wilson is dishonest in his business dealings and his profession, impairing his ability to enter into future NIL agreements, and harms his reputation.”
Wilson was one of the top edge defenders in the SEC in 2025, recording 9 sacks, tied for third-most in the SEC, and 49 total pressures, second-most in the SEC. He is currently expected to play for Missouri in the Taxslayer Gator Bowl on Saturday. He has not declared his intent for next season. He has until January 14 to enter his name into the NFL Draft as an underclassman.
This story will be updated as more information becomes available.
Cody Goodwin covers the Missouri Tigers for PowerMizzou and 247Sports. Follow him on Twitter/X at @codygoodwin.
PowerMizzou.com publisher Gabe DeArmond contributed to this report.
NIL
Georgia, Ex-Football Player Suing Each Other in NIL Dispute
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