Policy evolution in China’s campus football: a mixed-methods analysis of policy documents (2009–2025)

Text selection

The policy documents for this study were collected from official sources, including the Ministry of Education’s website and authoritative legal and policy platforms such as the Peking University Law Database. Given the large number of policy texts related to campus football, three screening criteria were applied: (1) issued by authoritative institutions such as the Ministry of Education and the General Administration of Sport; (2) representative of China’s campus football policies; and (3) containing substantive content suitable for policy coding. Based on these criteria, 71 valid policy documents were selected as the data foundation for this study’s analysis of campus football policies (Bowen, 2009; Qin et al., 2020) (See Table 1).

Three-dimensional analysis framework

This study proposes a three-dimensional analytical framework encompassing policy tools, policy actors, and policy themes to comprehensively examine the evolutionary characteristics of China’s campus football policy (see Fig. 1). It employs content analysis, SNA, and the LDA2Vec topic modeling technique to quantitatively analyze these dimensions, with the results subsequently visualized using curve charts, river diagrams, Gephi software, and the pyLDAvis visualization toolkit.

The three-dimensional analysis framework.

X dimension: policy tools

Drawing on policy tools theory, this study adopts the tripartite classification of policy tools proposed by Rothwell and Zegveld and incorporates findings from existing Chinese research, categorizing policy tools into supply-oriented, environmental, and demand-oriented types (Rothwell, 1985). The details are as follows (See Table 2). In addition, given the large volume of policy documents involved in this study, the analysis of extensive textual content renders traditional analytical methods insufficient (Liu et al., 2024). However, content analysis is a systematic, objective, and quantitative method for describing text content, and it is widely used in policy text analysis (Downe-Wamboldt, 1992). This approach relies on clearly defined coding rules to reduce large volumes of textual information into smaller, more meaningful content categories (Weber, 1990). It enables a more accurate and comprehensive interpretation of textual data (Wei and Li, 2024).

This study employed two independent coders to perform content coding using NVivo 14.0 software. The selected policy documents were coded and categorized using a hierarchical structure denoted as “policy number–clause number–policy tool sequence number” (e.g., “7-1-7” indicates the seventh policy tool in the first clause of policy document number 7). After node coding was completed, the two datasets were imported into the NVivo system, and the built-in Kappa coefficient function was used to calculate intercoder reliability. A Kappa value above 0.81 indicates an optimal level of consistency between coders (Song et al., 2021). After multiple tests, all Kappa coefficients across the nodes were found to exceed 0.81. Finally, any coding discrepancies were resolved through expert consultation to determine the appropriate classification, thereby finalizing the coding table for the content analysis of campus football policy documents (See Table 3).

Y dimension: policy actors

Grounded in governance theory, this dimension examines the interactions and influences of policy actors in the implementation of campus football policies. Policy actor refers to an entity involved in the formulation, implementation, evaluation, and monitoring of policies. It is responsible for designing policy themes, selecting appropriate policy tools, and coordinating the resources and actions of various stakeholders to achieve the intended policy objectives (Wang and Minawar, 2024). Accordingly, in the context of campus football, central government agencies, football associations, and related organizations are identified as policy actors. This study employs statistical bubble charts to visualize the frequency of policy actors’ involvement in campus football policy documents. Furthermore, by integrating SNA with Gephi visualization, the study constructs a policy actor network. Mapping nodes (e.g., organizations such as GASC and CFA) and edges (e.g., relationships or interactions) reveals interaction patterns, thereby enabling the assessment of coordination levels among policy actors in campus football governance(Otte and Rousseau, 2002; Springer and De Steiguer, 2011).

Z dimension: policy themes

This dimension, underpinned by policy process theory, analyzes the thematic evolution of campus football policies. As core elements of the policy system, policy themes reflect the problems addressed and objectives pursued by policies. Their dynamic adjustments across different stages of campus football development further reveal shifts in policy priorities and goal orientations (Hua et al., 2022). To capture these evolutionary trajectories, this study employs the LDA2vec thematic model—an extension of the LDA model. While traditional LDA (a three-layer Bayesian probabilistic network comprising vocabulary, themes, and documents) demonstrates efficiency and scalability in identifying policy themes (Blei et al., 2003; Chauhan and Shah, 2021; Alkan et al., 2023), its reliance on one-hot encoding overlooks semantic relationships. LDA2vec enhances clustering accuracy and thematic identification by integrating Word2Vec technology to optimize word, topic, and document vector representations (Li et al., 2018). This study combines LDA2vec with the confusion coefficient and the pyLDAvis visualization tool to identify the number of themes and associated keywords across different policy phases. In addition, a Sankey diagram is constructed to visualize the evolution of policy themes in campus football, allowing for a deeper analysis of thematic characteristics and their evolutionary trajectories, with the aim of revealing the shifting policy focus and goal orientation throughout the development process.

This study utilizes the Jieba Chinese text segmentation tool in Python to tokenize 71 campus school policy documents. To improve segmentation accuracy, domain-specific terms in the field of campus football—such as “campus football” and “Mantianxing Training Camp”—are incorporated into a customized dictionary. The text data were further cleaned using Chinese stop word lists, including the HITU Deactivation Thesaurus. After preprocessing, the LDA2vec model is trained iteratively to extract topics and associated keywords for each stage of campus football development. The optimal number of topics for each stage is determined based on the Perplexity and pyLDAvis visualization tool, with manual intervention used to eliminate semantically incoherent topics (Omar et al., 2015; Farea et al., 2024). The final topic modeling results are presented in Table 4.

Stages of campus football development

This study categorizes the development of campus football into four major phases, primarily based on the time point of significant policy enactments.

Start-up development stage (2009–2014)

In 1992, the Chinese Football Association (CFA) convened a working meeting in Hongshankou, a western suburb of Beijing, to set the direction for the professionalization of Chinese football (Fang and Yang, 2024). At that time, professional football clubs and football schools became the main pathways for cultivating reserve talent. However, this model emphasized competition while neglecting academic education, forcing young players to choose between professional training and general education. As a result, the number of football schools—once exceeding 4000—dropped sharply due to declining enrollment (Li et al., 2022). In 2009, to enhance the role of schools in developing youth talent, promote broader youth participation in football, and address the shortage of reserve talents, the GASC and the MOE jointly issued the Notice on the Development of National Youth Campus Football Activities. This policy called for the widespread implementation of campus football programs in regular primary and secondary schools, the establishment and refinement of a four-tier league system (covering primary schools, junior high schools, senior high schools, and colleges), and the systematic development of youth football reserve talent. This initiative marked the official launch of China’s campus football. According to statistics, from 2009 to 2014, over 100,000 school football matches were held annually, involving 5161 participating schools and resulting in the training of 2608 competitive football reserve talents (Qiu and Qin, 2021).

Development of the incremental stage (2015–2019)

In November 2014, the State Council convened a national video and teleconference on youth campus football, during which Vice Premier Liu Yandong emphasized that the development of campus football was a major and urgent strategic task (China Government Website, 2014). Subsequently, in March 2015, the Overall Program of Chinese Football Reform and Development, issued by the General Office of the State Council, elevated campus football to the level of national strategy. The plan proposed promoting the widespread adoption of campus football and set targets of establishing 20,000 campus football-specialized schools by 2020 and 50,000 by 2025. In the same year, the MOE issued the Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Youth Campus Football, outlining the primary objectives and future development trajectory of campus football (Ministry of Education, 2015). According to statistics, from 2015 to 2019, the number of campus football-specialized schools grew from just over 5000 to 27,059, surpassing the target of 20,000 schools set for 2020 ahead of schedule (Miao et al., 2020). During the same period, the four-tier league system (covering primary schools, junior high schools, senior high schools, and colleges) attracted approximately 12.55 million participants, trained approximately 350,000 teachers, and constructed or renovated 32,432 campus football fields (Ministry of Education, 2019).

Development deepening stage (2020–2023)

In December 2019, the MOE held a press conference, where the then Director of the Department of Physical Education, Health, and Arts Education proposed the development of an “upgraded version” of campus football (Ministry of Education, 2019). This initiative aimed to optimize the existing development system and further accelerate the advancement of campus football. Subsequently, in September 2020, the MOE issued the Action Plan for the Construction of the Eight Major Systems of National Youth Campus Football, which emphasized deepening the implementation of both the Overall Program of Chinese Football Reform and Development and the Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Youth Campus Football(Ministry of Education, 2020). The plan focused on optimizing and enhancing systems related to popularization and promotion, teaching and training, competitions and leagues, teacher development, and publicity and guidance. According to statistics, from 2020 to 2023, 5701 new schools with campus football-specialized were added, bringing the total to 32,760, which has played an important role in supporting the comprehensive development of campus football in China (Ministry of Education, 2024b).

Efficiency and quality improvement stage (2024–present)

Currently, the MOE has selected and recognized 37,261 schools with campus football-specialized, falling short of the 50,000 target set by the Overall Program of Chinese Football Reform and Development (Ministry of Education, 2025). Meanwhile, after nearly 15 years of large-scale and wide-ranging experimental work in campus football, signs of fatigue—both material and psychological—have inevitably emerged. Compared to the initial stage of its implementation, the nationwide enthusiasm for campus football has evidently declined (Mao, 2024). In response, in February 2024, the MOE issued the Implementation Opinions on Strengthening and Improving Youth School Football in the New Era, aiming to address the prominent issues facing the reform and development of campus football. Meanwhile, the document seeks to promote the healthy, sustainable, and high-quality development of campus football, and it also calls on campus football practitioners to commit to sustained efforts, remain grounded in present realities, and work steadily to elevate the development of campus football to a new level (Ministry of Education, 2024a).