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Ranking Every NASCAR Driver’s Playoff Chances With 10 Races To Go

Ten races left, and the pressure is suffocating. With the NASCAR playoffs looming, jobs, millions, and legacies are on the line — and some of the sport’s biggest names are hanging by a thread. From champions clinging to hope, to winless drivers quietly building momentum, this updated breakdown of the Cup Series playoff picture might […]

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Ten races left, and the pressure is suffocating. With the NASCAR playoffs looming, jobs, millions, and legacies are on the line — and some of the sport’s biggest names are hanging by a thread. From champions clinging to hope, to winless drivers quietly building momentum, this updated breakdown of the Cup Series playoff picture might surprise you. The field is tightening. The chaos is coming. Who’s in, who’s out, and who’s just praying for a Daytona miracle?

  • Which former champions may miss the playoffs entirely?
  • Why Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick should be swinging for stage wins now
  • Carson Hocevar and Ryan Preece as legit wildcard spoilers? Believe it.
  • And could Darlington be Daniel Suárez’s last stand with Trackhouse?

From consistent grinders to win-it-or-go-home road course ringers, this playoff field isn’t just competitive, it’s volatile. One lucky break or one blown strategy call could change everything. Whether you’re rooting for the underdog or the dynasty, this video dives deep into every bubble battle and ticking time bomb on the path to the postseason. Watch the full breakdown, then hit the comments. Who do you think sneaks in, shocks the system, or watches it all slip away?

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NASCAR at Sonoma results: Shane van Gisbergen remains ‘King of the Road’ with third straight road course win

In another performance that put all other drivers’ road racing skills to shame, Shane van Gisbergen dominated by leading 97 of 110 laps to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway on Sunday for his third straight win in the past month of NASCAR’s slate of road course races. Van Gisbergen’s fourth career Cup […]

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In another performance that put all other drivers’ road racing skills to shame, Shane van Gisbergen dominated by leading 97 of 110 laps to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway on Sunday for his third straight win in the past month of NASCAR’s slate of road course races. Van Gisbergen’s fourth career Cup Series victory continues a historic pace for him to start his NASCAR career, as his fourth win in 34 career starts makes him the fastest driver to earn four wins to begin his career since Parnelli Jones earned his fourth win in 1967 in just his 31st Cup start.

After dominating from the pole and having done the same at both Mexico City and Chicago, van Gisbergen also becomes the first driver to win three consecutive road course races from the pole since NASCAR Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon did so between 1998 and 1999 as part of a streak of six straight from 1997 to 2000. His three wins also tie him for the most this season, as he now stands alongside Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell among winning drivers atop the playoff standings.

NASCAR 2025 race schedule, results: Complete list of Cup Series race dates, winners, tracks, locations

Steven Taranto

NASCAR 2025 race schedule, results: Complete list of Cup Series race dates, winners, tracks, locations

After winning in his Cup debut at Chicago two years ago, van Gisbergen left a successful career racing V8 Supercars in Australia — where he earned 80 career victories and three championships — to move to the United States and a full-time NASCAR career. Now, the 36-year old from Auckland, New Zealand, is raising the bar for stock car road racing, and has quickly staked a claim to being one of the best road racers NASCAR has ever seen.

“It means everything. That’s why I race cars, you know,” van Gisbergen told TNT Sports. “I had an amazing time in Australia, and then to come year, the last couple years have been a dream come true. I’ve really enjoyed my time in NASCAR. Thanks everyone for making me feel so welcome, and I hope I’m here for a long time to come.”

Chase Briscoe would be best of the rest of the field in second, followed by Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell and Bell completing the top five. Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, William Byron, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch comprised the rest of the Top 10.

Gibbs, Keselowski crews have pit road confrontation

Though much of it occurred in van Gisbergen’s rearview mirror, Sunday’s race saw its fair share of action and dustups, including one on pit road. During a round of green flag pit stops, Gibbs and Brad Keselowski came to their pit stalls together, with Gibbs driving through Keselowski’s stall into the No. 54 stall, but coming perilously close to Keselowski’s crew already over the wall in the process. Gibbs came close enough to the No. 6 crew to clip a tire being held by crewmember Telvin McClurkin, twisting his wrist in the process.

An incensed McClurkin went over to confront Gibbs’ pit crew immediately after both crews finished their stops, which led to a brief shoving match that was broken up by NASCAR officials. Officials would later rule that Gibbs did nothing to warrant a penalty, with Gibbs himself explaining that he had been following pit road procedures.

“By NASCAR’s rules, I’m the lead car because I’m the pit box past where the 6 is, and I’m in front of him as well,” Gibbs told TNT Sports. “We have these orange lines … where if I’m behind him, I have to go around those orange lines for it to be a rule (sic). And going in, I have the right of way.

“They’re on the wall for a reason, they jump for a reason, they kind of get out of the way. Those guys like to push it, and that’s kind of the consequence you pay. That’s unfortunate for them that they had a penalty. Nothing malicious, it’s my right of way.”

Drama all the way to the end

Meanwhile, the race to advance in NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge came all the way down to the final corner, as Ty Dillon put the bump-and-run on Alex Bowman for 17th spot, allowing him to continue his improbable run as the No. 32 seed entering the tournament. 

Dillon will face No. 12 seed John Hunter Nemechek in the semifinals at Dover Motor Speedway, while No. 23 Tyler Reddick will go up against No. 6 Ty Gibbs on the other side of the bracket. 

The top two finishers in each matchup next week at Dover will move on to the championship round to determine the In-Season Challenge winner in the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 results

  1. #88 – Shane van Gisbergen (R)
  2. #19 – Chase Briscoe
  3. #9 – Chase Elliott
  4. #71 – Michael McDowell
  5. #20 – Christopher Bell
  6. #45 – Tyler Reddick
  7. #54 – Ty Gibbs
  8. #24 – William Byron
  9. #22 – Joey Logano
  10. #8 – Kyle Busch
  11. #6 – Brad Keselowski
  12. #60 – Ryan Preece
  13. #21 – Josh Berry
  14. #99 – Daniel Suarez
  15. #7 – Justin Haley
  16. #17 – Chris Buescher
  17. #10 – Ty Dillon
  18. #16 – A.J. Allmendinger
  19. #48 – Alex Bowman
  20. #11 – Denny Hamlin
  21. #3 – Austin Dillon
  22. #34 – Todd Gilliland
  23. #41 – Cole Custer
  24. #1 – Ross Chastain
  25. #35 – Riley Herbst (R)
  26. #23 – Bubba Wallace
  27. #38 – Zane Smith
  28. #42 – John Hunter Nemechek
  29. #43 – Erik Jones
  30. #2 – Austin Cindric
  31. #78 – Katherine Legge
  32. #77 – Carson Hocevar
  33. #47 – Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  34. #51 – Cody Ware
  35. #5 – Kyle Larson
  36. #12 – Ryan Blaney
  37. #4 – Noah Gragson





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Shane van Gisbergen is Somona race winner

Jeff Gordon reflects on how to grow NASCAR’s popularity Jeff Gordon discusses the popularity of NASCAR and how the sport can continue to grow. Sports Seriously Shane van Gisbergen won his third consecutive NASCAR Cup Series road course race. The NASCAR In-Season Challenge bracket is down to four drivers: Ty Dillon, John Hunter Nemechek, Tyler […]

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  • Shane van Gisbergen won his third consecutive NASCAR Cup Series road course race.
  • The NASCAR In-Season Challenge bracket is down to four drivers: Ty Dillon, John Hunter Nemechek, Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs.
  • The Cup Series heads to Dover Motor Speedway next, marking a break from road courses until mid-August.

There is no doubt.

You know, if any existed before NASCAR headed to Sonoma Raceway.

With his victory in the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on July 13, Shane van Gisbergen continued to solidify his title as the best road-course racer in the Cup Series. At this point, he’s vaulting up the all-time list.

Check out this note.

Van Gisbergen became the first driver since Jeff Gordon in 1998 and 1999 to claim three straight road races from the pole.

“I just have to thank these guys,” van Gisbergen said, acknowledging his No. 88 Trackhouse team. “It builds up all year. Got better and better. Now, we need to keep getting better on the ovals and start proving some people wrong.”

Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott followed him to the stripe and filled out the top three.

Let’s break it down.

1. SVG is Michael Jordan on road courses? Ask Chase Briscoe

Minutes after the race, Briscoe joined the TNT crew and offered this.

“I obviously never played basketball against Michael Jordan in his prime,” he said, “but I feel like that’s what it was probably like.”

Yes, SVG was that good Sunday.

He led 97 of the 110 laps. After securing a Stage 2 win, the second of the day for Trackhouse after teammate Ross Chastain grabbed Stage 1, van Gisbergen overcame a pair of cautions in the final 12 laps and held Briscoe at bay.

Final margin: 1.128 seconds.

The 36-year-old from New Zealand joined Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell as drivers with multiple victories this season. All four of those gentlemen have three.

SVG also triumphed in Chicago last week and Mexico City last month.

“I’ve really enjoyed my time in NASCAR,” he said. “Thanks everybody for making me feel so welcome. Hopefully, I’m here for a long time to come.”

2. NASCAR In-Season Challenge bracket update

The 32-driver bracket is down to four.

Ty Dillon will take on John Hunter Nemechek and Tyler Reddick will square off with Ty Gibbs in the semifinals of the inaugural NASCAR In-Season Challenge next week.

Sonoma served as the third of five rounds. Here’s how it shook out:

  • 32-seed Dillon (17th) beat 8-seed Alex Bowman (19th)
  • 12-seed Nemechek (28th) beat 20-seed Erik Jones (29th)
  • 23-seed Reddick (sixth) beat 15-seed Ryan Preece (12th)
  • 6-seed Gibbs (seventh) beat 14-seed Zane Smith (38th)

3. NASCAR schedule: Cup Series exits road courses for now with Dover race

Here’s some good news for the rest of the Cup Series.

The drivers won’t hit another road course until mid-August. Van Gisbergen’s dominance of the last few weeks will be hard to sustain.

Next week, the circuit turns to the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. The race is set for 2 p.m. on July 20. It will air on TNT.



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2025 NASCAR Sonoma odds, Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks, props: Expert who nailed 17 winners likes 80-1 longshot

Kyle Larson will look to get back into the winner’s circle when he takes part in Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Larson has had a lot of success at Sonoma and won last year’s event as well as in 2021. He placed eighth at the 2023 race. Larson already has three wins on […]

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Kyle Larson will look to get back into the winner’s circle when he takes part in Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Larson has had a lot of success at Sonoma and won last year’s event as well as in 2021. He placed eighth at the 2023 race. Larson already has three wins on the season and 12 top-10 finishes in 2025.

Larson is at +600 to win the race, while Shane van Gisbergen is the +140 odds-on favorite. Other contenders include Michael McDowell (+1000), Chase Elliott (+1200) and Tyler Reddick (+1400) in the latest 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway odds, from DrafKings Sportsbook. Sunday’s race is scheduled to start at 3:30 p.m. ET. Before making any 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks or NASCAR at Sonoma predictions, you need to see what NASCAR insider Steven Taranto has to say.

Taranto, who moonlights as a sim racer and has 20 career wins in iRacing, is the lead NASCAR writer for CBSSports.com. He has an annual NASCAR media credential and also publishes a popular weekly NASCAR predictions column, famously calling Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez’s breakthrough wins in 2022.

Taranto was red-hot for SportsLine in 2024 as he nailed 17 winners, including 16-1 longshot William Byron at the Daytona 500 and 14-1 longshot Chase Elliott at Texas. He correctly picked the Straight Talk Wireless 400 winner in Larson on March 23. Anyone following his NASCAR picks at their favorite sportsbooks could have seen huge returns.

Now, Taranto has analyzed the starting lineup and odds for Sunday’s 2025 NASCAR Save Mart 350 in Sonoma . He’s only sharing his best bets at SportsLine. You can also use them to take advantage of the latest FanDuel promo codeDraftKings promo code or BetMGM promo code.

2025 NASCAR Save Mart 350 expert picks

For the 2025 Save Mart 350 in Sonoma, Taranto is high on road specialist van Gisbergen at +140. He has dominated road courses this year, winning two of them and placing sixth at the other. He led the most laps (60) en route to the win at the Viva Mexico 250 in June and claimed the win at last week’s Grant Park 165.

At the March 2 Echo Park Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, he finished sixth. Van Gisbergen also won the 2023 Grant Park 220, for his only other NASCAR Cup Series victory. He is a three-time season champion in his Supercars Championship career. He earned wins in 2016, 2021 and 2022. See which other drivers he’s backing at SportsLine.

Top NASCAR props for Sonoma

Head-to-head: Taranto sees Ryan Preece (+175) finishing ahead of Tyler Reddick (-240). Although Preece has yet to finish in the top-10 at Sonoma, he has five top-10 finishes over the past eight Cup Series races. He was seventh a week ago at Chicago, and was eighth at Pocono last month. His best finish this season was at Las Vegas in March, when he placed third.

Reddick, meanwhile, is coming off back-to-back top-five finishes. He took fourth at Atlanta and third in Chicago. Prior to that stretch, however, Reddick struggled a bit, finishing 32nd at Pocono, 20th at Mexico City and 13th at Michigan. He has seven top-10 finishes in 2025. See all of Taranto’s picks at SportsLine. 

How to make 2025 Save Mart 350 predictions

Taranto has also identified four other drivers in his 2025 NASCAR Save Mart 350 best bets. He’s also high on a huge NASCAR longshot who’s going off around 80-1, potentially netting any backer a huge payday. You can only see who they are here.

So who wins the 2025 Save Mart 350 in Sonoma and which massive longshot could stun NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the 2025 NASCAR Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway picks and best bets from a NASCAR insider who nailed a colossal 17 winners last year, and find out.

2025 NASCAR Save Mart 350 odds, lineup

See full 2025 Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway picks at SportsLine

(odds subject to change)

Shane Van Gisbergen +140
Kyle Larson +600
Michael McDowell +1000
Chase Elliott +1200
Tyler Reddick +1400
Ty Gibbs +1400
Chris Buescher +1400
William Byron +1800
Christopher Bell +1800
AJ Allmendinger +2200
Kyle Busch +2700
Ross Chastain +3000
Ryan Blaney +3400
Chase Briscoe +3700
Alex Bowman +3700
Daniel Suarez +5500
Ryan Preece +5500
Carson Hocevar +5500
Joey Logano +5500
Denny Hamlin +6000
Austin Cindric +7500
Bubba Wallace +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000
John Hunter Nemechek +15000
Todd Gilliland +20000
Noah Gragson +25000
Zane Smith +25000
Cole Custer +30000
Justin Haley +30000
Erik Jones +36000
Katherine Legge +42000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +42000
Cody Ware +42000
Ty Dillon +42000
Austin Dillon +42000
Riley Herbst +42000
Josh Berry +42000





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Shane van Gisbergen wins Cup race

Jeff Gordon reflects on how to grow NASCAR’s popularity Jeff Gordon discusses the popularity of NASCAR and how the sport can continue to grow. Sports Seriously Another week, another win for Shane van Gisbergen. The Trackhouse Racing driver made it back-to-back wins for the first time in his young NASCAR Cup Series career with a […]

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Another week, another win for Shane van Gisbergen.

The Trackhouse Racing driver made it back-to-back wins for the first time in his young NASCAR Cup Series career with a dominating victory at Sonoma Raceway.

Van Gisbergen took the pole position for Sunday’s race in Sonoma after sweeping the pole positions and the race wins in both the Xfinity and Cup Series events last weekend in Chicago.

This weekend was a similar story with even more dominance on race day. In all, van Gisbergen led 97 of the 110 laps of the race. He’s by far the top driver on road courses this year with three wins (Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma) out of four races.

“Trackhouse Racing gave me a great Chevrolet again. What a great couple of weeks!” van Gisbergen said after the race. “Just to execute, make no mistakes, have great pit stops, great strategy and be able to hold them off there at the end – it’s incredible. Chase (Briscoe) was driving really well. We had a lot of fun there.” 

The New Zealander started Sunday’s race from the pole and kept in front early. He pitted just before the end of Stage 1, ceding the stage win to fellow Trackhouse Racing driver Ross Chastain, and re-took the lead soon after his stop to win Stage 2.

Another pit stop dropped him down the order during Stage 3 but he quickly recovered to take the lead once again by lap 90. He kept control through late caution periods to secure the win.

Chase Briscoe came home second – exactly where he started the race. Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell and Christopher Bell rounded out the top five.

“I don’t know if I really saw everything (van Gisbergen) had, truthfully,” Briscoe said after the race. “I felt like every time I would get close; he would just start driving back away. We were definitely the second-best car. I don’t really know what more I need – maybe a little bit a grip. But even if I had a little more grip, I don’t know if I’m going to be able to gain the speed that he had.

“But overall, great day for the Bass Pro Shops Toyota. This is by far my worst race track, so to run second to him, it definitely means a lot, so proud of the day.”

Round three of the in-season challenge saw the 32-driver field whittled down once again. Four drivers remain: Ty Dillon, John Hunter Nemechek, Ty Gibbs and Tyler Reddick.

Dillon and Nemechek square off next week in the top half of the bracket, while Gibbs and Reddick face off to decide the bottom half of the bracket.

The rest of the Cup Series field will have a much better chance at victory next weekend in Dover. That’s also the penultimate round of the NASCAR in-season challenge that will leave two drivers in contention for the $1 million prize.

Thirty-two drivers entered the in-season challenge. After three rounds, just four remain, including just one driver from the top 10 seeds. Here’s the bracket entering Round 4 in Dover:

Top half of bracket

  • No. 32 Ty Dillon vs. No. 12 John Hunter Nemechek

Bottom half of bracket

  • No. 23 Tyler Reddick vs. No. 6 Ty Gibbs

The USA TODAY app gets you to the heart of the news — fast. Download for award-winning coverage, crosswords, audio storytelling, the eNewspaper and more.



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Shane van Gisbergen Clinches Dominant Victory at Sonoma Raceway – Speedway Digest

In a masterclass of road course racing, Shane van Gisbergen powered his No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet to victory in the Toyota/Save Mart 350, leading a staggering 97 of 110 laps to secure his third NASCAR Cup Series win of the season. Starting from pole position, van Gisbergen controlled the pace from the outset, winning […]

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In a masterclass of road course racing, Shane van Gisbergen powered his No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet to victory in the Toyota/Save Mart 350, leading a staggering 97 of 110 laps to secure his third NASCAR Cup Series win of the season.

Starting from pole position, van Gisbergen controlled the pace from the outset, winning Stage 2 and fending off late-race challenges from Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott, both of whom surged forward on fresher tires during a flurry of late cautions. Despite the pressure, SVG held firm, showcasing precision and poise through Sonoma’s technical turns.

Race Highlights:

  • Lead Changes: 12 among multiple drivers
  • Cautions: 6 for 17 laps
  • Margin of Victory: ~1.3 seconds
  • Stage Winners: Ross Chastain (Stage 1), Shane van Gisbergen (Stage 2)

Top 10 Finishers:

  1. Shane van Gisbergen (Trackhouse Racing)
  2. Chase Briscoe (Joe Gibbs Racing)
  3. Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports)
  4. Michael McDowell (Spire Motorsports)
  5. Christopher Bell (Joe Gibbs Racing)
  6. Tyler Reddick (23XI Racing)
  7. Ty Gibbs (Joe Gibbs Racing)
  8. William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports)
  9. Joey Logano (Team Penske)
  10. Kyle Busch (Richard Childress Racing)

Van Gisbergen’s win marks his third consecutive road course victory, further cementing his reputation as one of NASCAR’s elite road racers.

“We had an amazing car. Chase Briscoe, what a great racer and gave me respect. Jumped the last one a little bit and it was pretty tense, but amazing. So stoked for Red Bull, Trackhouse, Chevy. I believe we had a really fun weekend here, some great races, and I hope everyone enjoyed that.” Said Gisbergen

“It means everything. That’s why I race cars. I had an amazing time in Australia, and then to come here and the last couple weeks or years actually has been a dream come true. I’ve really enjoyed my time in NASCAR. Thanks, everyone, for making me feel so welcome. I hope I’m here for a long time to come.” Continued Gisbergen

The Cup Series now heads to Dover Motor Speedway on July 20, where van Gisbergen will look to extend his hot streak on a very different kind of track. But for now, Sonoma belongs to SVG.



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NASCAR results: Full finishing order of Toyota/Save Mart 350 race at Sonoma Raceway

And so it continues. For the second straight week and third straight road-course race, Shane van Gisbergen is your winner. He captured the checkered flag during the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Somoma Raceway on Sunday, July 13. Advertisement It is the fourth career Cup Series victory and third this season for the driver of Trackhouse’s […]

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And so it continues.

For the second straight week and third straight road-course race, Shane van Gisbergen is your winner. He captured the checkered flag during the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Somoma Raceway on Sunday, July 13.

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It is the fourth career Cup Series victory and third this season for the driver of Trackhouse’s No. 88 car. All of them have come on road courses.

He, of course, already had a playoff spot wrapped up.

Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell and Christopher Bell rounded out the top five. Let’s check out the full finishing order.

NASCAR standings: Results of Cup Series race at Sonoma Raceway

  1. Shane van Gisbergen, No. 88

  2. John Hunter Nemechek, No. 42

  3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., No. 47

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR today: Results, winner of Cup Series race at Sonoma Raceway



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