We are one month away from having college football back, with Iowa State and Kansas State kicking things off from Dublin on Aug. 23.

With games so close at hand, we asked our reporters to single out one contest for each of our post-spring Top 25 teams that could swing their season one way or the other. On paper, what is the one game that will play the biggest role in determining whether the season is a success or a dud?

Some will come in major nonconference battles over the first couple of weeks, some are more traditional league games that could set the tone for the things to come. But they’re all worth circling on your calendars and contemplating as the season nears.

Other Top 25 lists: X factors | Areas of concern | Sleepers

Swing game: vs. Oregon, Sept. 27

Among the national title contenders, Penn State will provide the fewest clues during the first portion of the schedule, which includes nonleague games against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova. But after an open week, the Lions will face their first mega test, as they host Oregon in a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten championship game. The Ducks ran the table during their first season as a league member, but they didn’t face a road test like Beaver Stadium at night. Coaches and quarterbacks are always linked, but Penn State’s James Franklin and Drew Allar will be under an especially bright spotlight as they try to reverse their big-game trend lines. A win stamps Penn State as the team to beat in the Big Ten this season, about a month before it heads to Ohio State on Nov. 1. — Adam Rittenberg

Swing game: vs. LSU, Aug. 30

This one is fairly obvious. The Tigers open the season at home against LSU, a huge game that will serve to show whether all the hype surrounding Clemson is warranted. Clemson has lost three of its past four season openers, including two to another SEC school in Georgia. Winning is hugely important, but so is the way Clemson looks right out of the gate with an experienced team that returns its best playmakers on offense and some of its best defenders from a year ago. Here is why that “eye test” matters to perception: In those three season-opening losses to Georgia (2021, 2024) and Duke (2023), Clemson managed to score a combined 13 points and just one total touchdown. That simply cannot happen with QB Cade Klubnik entering Year 3 as the starter. — Andrea Adelson

Swing game: vs. Oklahoma at Cotton Bowl, Oct. 11

As is pretty much always the case, Texas-Oklahoma will have huge implications on the seasons of both teams. Andrew Dieb/Imagn ImagesIt’s always Oklahoma. It’s early October. The SEC schedule is getting under way. And no matter what, this game ends up being unpredictable and usually a dogfight. Like when the 0-4 Sooners were 22-point underdogs in John Blake’s first season in 1996, or in 2013 and 2015 when unranked Texas teams beat No. 12 and No. 10 OU teams. The last three years show the swings. In 2022, Texas won 49-0. In 2023, No. 12 Oklahoma stunned No. 3 Texas in the final seconds 34-30, then the Longhorns bounced back to crush the Sooners 34-3 last season. — Dave WilsonSwing game: at Tennessee, Sept. 13After hosting Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay to start the season, the Bulldogs will play an early SEC road game at Tennessee on Sept. 13. It will be a significant road test for starting quarterback Gunner Stockton and the offense playing in one of the most intimidating road environments in the SEC. The Volunteers dominated the Bulldogs throughout the 1990s, but Georgia has flipped the script, winning eight in a row and 13 of the past 15 contests in the series. The Bulldogs won each of their past four games at Neyland Stadium by at least 24 points. With a home game against Alabama coming next on the schedule, coach Kirby Smart will be looking for a similar performance at Rocky Top. — Mark Schlabach

Swing game: vs. Texas, Aug. 30

In 2006, the Buckeyes throttled Texas in Week 2 in Austin 24-7, setting the tone for Ohio State’s undefeated regular season and trip to the national title game. The Buckeyes face Texas again, this time in the opener in Columbus. The Longhorns are loaded, led by unproven but ultra-talented quarterback Arch Manning. Texas will also be aiming for revenge after falling to Ohio State in dramatic fashion during last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal. Even without so many key players from last year’s team, the Buckeyes can announce to the rest of college football that they remain a serious national title threat with a Week 1 victory over Manning and the Longhorns. Such an impressive nonconference win would also give Ohio State an early inside track to one of the four coveted playoff byes. — Jake Trotter

Swing game: at Clemson, Aug. 30

LSU is 0-3 in season openers under Brian Kelly. If there was a year to change that and set the table for the season, this is it. Cade Klubnik is expected by many to be among the best quarterbacks in college football this season, with Clemson primed for another run into the CFP. LSU looks just about as talented and ready to make a national championship push as any team in the country, but the Tigers need to look closer to their final form from the jump than they have in recent years. — Harry Lyles Jr.

Swing game: at Miami, Aug. 31

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman won’t have to wait long to learn if his team is a CFP national title contender. The Fighting Irish open the season at Miami on Aug. 31, then host Texas A&M two weeks later on Sept. 13. The opener against the Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, will be a tremendous test for Notre Dame’s new starting quarterback, presumably redshirt freshman CJ Carr. The Hurricanes have CFP aspirations of their own after adding former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, LSU receiver CJ Daniels and a plethora of defensive backs from the transfer portal. The Irish lost to Miami 41-8 in their last trip to South Florida in 2017. Notre Dame’s 23-13 victory at Texas A&M in the 2024 opener gave Freeman’s team belief it could be a CFP contender. It was a physical heavyweight fight until the Irish scored twice in the final two minutes to break open a 13-13 tie. — Mark Schlabach

Swing game: at Penn State, Sept. 27

The Ducks’ matchup in Happy Valley against Penn State in late September may just be the biggest game of their entire season. Both Oregon and Penn State are not only top-10 ranked teams heading into the year (if not top-5), they are also both legitimate national title contenders. This is also a rematch of last year’s Big Ten title game, which the Ducks won in convincing fashion. Round 2, this time in a hostile environment for the defending conference champions, will have plenty of juice. — Paolo Uggetti

Swing game: Alabama at Georgia, Sept. 27

Alabama closes the month of September by traveling to Georgia on Sept. 27, and it doesn’t figure to be a cushy first month for the Tide. They open the season at Florida State on Aug. 30 and face Wisconsin at home two weeks prior to the trip to Georgia. A loss at Georgia wouldn’t necessarily be a crippling blow, especially since Georgia hasn’t lost a game at home in five years, but winning in Athens would afford Alabama a mulligan (or two) if the Tide were to trip up the rest of the way against somebody they shouldn’t lose to. — Chris Low

Swing game: vs. West Virginia, Oct. 3

Editor’s Picks2 RelatedThe Big 12 opener against Colorado on Sept. 27 is one to circle but it’s the next week — at home against West Virginia — that could really swing momentum one way or the other. If the Cougars start 4-0 (they play Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina in nonconference), a win here to move to 2-0 in conference play would be huge — especially since they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback and that early-season experience will matter. And if they lose to Colorado, they’ll need a win over the Mountaineers to avoid an 0-2 start, which would essentially end any hopes of building off of last year’s brilliant campaign before the season even has a chance to really get going. — Kyle BonaguraSwing game: at Indiana, Sept. 20The Illini face two September road tests that could shape how the rest of the season goes. Picking between Duke (Sept. 6) and Indiana (Sept. 20) is difficult, but the visit to the Hoosiers jumps out because they made the CFP last season and return several stars from a very stout defense. Cal quarterback transfer Fernando Mendoza will provide a good test for an Illinois defense that was susceptible against the pass last year, finishing 78th nationally. The Illini also have struggled lately in Bloomington, dropping their last two games there and three of the past four. A win in the Big Ten opener could propel Illinois entering a pivotal stretch that includes home games against USC and Ohio State, and a trip to Washington. — Rittenberg

Swing game: at Baylor, Sept. 20

The nonconference schedule should allow ASU to ease into 2025 a bit — the Sun Devils will likely be double-digit favorites or close to it in each of their first three games. But starting with their Week 4 trip to Baylor, things get awfully tricky. Baylor is among many aspiring Big 12 contenders, and the Bears will already be battle-tested, having begun the season with Auburn and SMU. The Big 12 spoils go to the teams that win super-close games, and on paper this one is likely to be super close. Beginning a conference title defense with a loss would be awfully ominous. — Bill Connelly

Swing game: at Texas A&M, Nov. 15

South Carolina has an absolute gauntlet of a five-game stretch in the middle of the season that starts with a trip to LSU before hosting Oklahoma and Alabama, then going on the road to Ole Miss and Texas A&M. If the Gamecocks want to make a playoff run, they’ll likely need to win at least two of those five — and maybe three, given that Missouri and Clemson are also on the docket — which could be a big ask. So what’s the pivot point? If we assume the Gamecocks can take care of business at home — a big assumption, to be sure — that means they’ll need to steal at least one on the road. Ole Miss smoked South Carolina in Columbia last year, so that could be a tall order, and winning in Baton Rouge is never easy. So that puts the focus squarely on Texas A&M. A big win on the road over the Aggies in mid-November could be a statement to the playoff committee and put South Carolina squarely in the mix for a top-12 position. — David Hale

Swing game: vs. Arizona, Sept. 27

The Hawkeyes have a Big 12 game to open the season against Kansas State, so there is no easing into the season — and that’s before factoring in Iowa coming to town Sept. 6. So Cyclones fans won’t have to wait long before having a decent sense of what to expect this year. Let’s go ahead and assume they beat South Dakota and Arkansas State and could be 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0 headed in the fifth game against Arizona. The result of that game against the Wildcats would significantly shape expectations for the rest of the way. — Bonagura

Swing game: at Clemson, Oct. 18

Connelly’s conference previewsBill Connelly gets you ready for the 2025 season by breaking down a different conference every week of the summer. Previews

SMU’s schedule for the first half of the season is manageable, with home dates against Baylor and Syracuse and a road trip to TCU providing the toughest matchups. The Mustangs won’t be at a serious talent disadvantage in any of them, making a strong start to the season imperative. The back half of the schedule, however, gets much tougher, starting with the clear swing game — and a chance for revenge from last year’s ACC championship — when the Mustangs travel to Death Valley to take on Clemson on Oct. 18. That game kicks off a gauntlet that sees SMU hosting Miami and Louisville and making tough road trips to BC and Cal in the season’s final weeks. Whether SMU was a one-hit wonder in the ACC or is a power ready to compete will be determined down the stretch in 2025, with no game looming larger than the date with the Tigers. — Hale

Swing game: at Arizona State, Oct. 18.

The Red Raiders’ game in Salt Lake City against Utah could be a challenge, facing a revamped team that is always a tough out in Rice-Eccles Stadium. But Texas Tech and Arizona State are viewed as two of the clear-cut favorites in the Big 12. This game comes two weeks before the Red Raiders have to go to Manhattan and face another conference contender in Kansas State. As we learned in 2024, this new-look Big 12 can be quite unpredictable. — Lyles

Swing game: at Iowa, Sept. 27

After what should be a straightforward start to the season with some manageable nonconference matchups, the season ramps up with the Hoosiers first road trip to Iowa. While the Hawkeyes aren’t projected to be a surefire Top 25 team this season, playing at Kinnick is never easy. Going into that environment and emerging with a victory could be a tone-setter for Indiana’s season in large part because of the game that precedes that matchup and the one that follows it. The conference opener against Illinois a week prior will be a tough first hurdle, while a road trip to Eugene to face Oregon after the Iowa game will be even tougher. Playing that stretch 2-1 instead of 1-2 (or even 0-3!) will be imperative. — Uggetti

Swing game: vs. Iowa State at Dublin, Aug. 23

Kansas State’s Farmageddon clash with Iowa State kicks off the season in Dublin. Reese Strickland/Imagn ImagesWeek 0 swing games are rarely a thing, but wow, is Farmageddon big this season. The Wildcats’ battle with Iowa State in Dublin on Aug. 23 will make the winner an automatic Big 12 front-runner and will leave the loser on wobbly ground before the official first Saturday of the 2025 campaign. With Avery Johnson entering his second year as the Wildcats’ starting quarterback, K-State has a bit more upside, and is facing a bit more pressure than usual. Starting the season 0-1 would double that pressure. — Connelly

Swing game: at LSU, Sept. 13

Florida once again didn’t get any favors from the schedule makers, and the Gators will get an early test in Baton Rouge against LSU. On paper, this feels like a year that Brian Kelly is going to have things put together in the Bayou, in part because he has the coveted returning starter at QB in Garrett Nussmeier. Along with the incumbent talent, Kelly and his staff did a really good job in the transfer portal and will be a tough out every Saturday this fall. If Florida wins this game, or even loses a close one, it will bode well for the rest of the season. — Lyles

Swing game: at Oklahoma, Sept. 6

The Wolverines head to Oklahoma in Week 2 to face Sherrone Moore’s alma mater. Beating Ohio State for a fourth straight time salvaged last season for the Wolverines, who had to surge late in the year just to secure a winning record in Moore’s first full season as head coach. Michigan will have bigger expectations in 2025, especially with the arrival of five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. If the Wolverines can knock off the Sooners in Norman, they’ll be sending a statement that they’re potentially ready to contend for a playoff spot again. But if the Wolverines fall to Oklahoma, they could then have to weather a proposed two-game suspension for Moore, which includes a trip to Nebraska on Sept. 20, just to keep their postseason hopes afloat early. — Trotter

Swing game: vs. Notre Dame, Aug. 31

I am going to put a caveat on my answer here because of the way last season turned out. The season opener against Notre Dame is going to tell us plenty about where Miami stands in 2025. That starts at quarterback, where Georgia transfer Carson Beck is expected to be fully recovered from an elbow injury he sustained in the SEC championship game. Will he be able to bring the same dynamic play to the table that Cam Ward did last year to set the tone? How will the new-look receivers and revamped defense look? So much about Miami is unknown headed into this game because of the complete roster revamp, which was much needed on the defensive side. Having said that, we all thought the season would go differently for Miami a year ago after its trouncing of Florida in the season opener. For the most part, it went well, with 10 wins. But the Canes fell short of playing for a title, and that has to change sooner rather than later. — Adelson

Swing game: at Miami, Oct. 17

Louisville took Miami to the wire last year in front of the home fans, and only a disastrous performance by the secondary against Cam Ward allowed the Canes to escape with a win. This year’s rematch in south Florida will be a chance for a little revenge and, likely, an opportunity for the Cardinals to establish their playoff bona fides in a big way. While there are no guarantees, the early part of Louisville’s slate sets up nicely for the Cards to enter the Oct. 17 date with Miami at 5-0, and if they can add a win against the Canes to that résumé, there’s a good chance Louisville would be flirting with a top-10 ranking. Just as important, it would set the stage for a stretch run in November that includes games against Clemson, SMU and Kentucky. — Hale

Swing game: at Notre Dame, Sept. 13

The Sept. 13 trip to Notre Dame should be a slugfest akin to last year’s 23-13 shoving match at Kyle Field. The Aggies’ offensive line has morphed from a weakness under Jimbo Fisher to a strength in two years and the Notre Dame D-line is one of the best in the country. It’s likely to be the only game in the first seven weeks of the season in which the Aggies will be an underdog, and in Year 2 of the Mike Elko era, it’s a key test to measure how ready they are to push the rest of the SEC. — Wilson

Swing game: vs. LSU, Sept. 27

Ole Miss has games before this that they shouldn’t sleep on — in Lexington in Week 2, then against Arkansas and Tulane the following weeks. But LSU appears to be one of the three best teams in the SEC heading into the season, and having this game at home is big for Ole Miss. Down the road, a more difficult task awaits on the road in Athens against Georgia, so building up a callus against the Tigers will be key. — Lyles

Swing game: vs. Michigan, Sept. 6

Four of Oklahoma’s first five games are at home, and the only road contest is at Temple on Sept. 13. But in Week 2, the Sooners could build some serious momentum when Michigan comes to town for a prime-time game. A win against the Wolverines would give the Sooners a real chance at a 5-0 start entering the Red River Showdown against Texas on Oct. 6. The back end of Oklahoma’s schedule is especially difficult (Texas, South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama all away from home, plus Ole Miss and LSU at home), so getting off to a good start will be critical for the Sooners. — Low