“You forget that lying is a struggle for survival. Little puny man’s way of dragging circumstance about to fit his preconception of himself as a figure in the world. Revenge on the sinister gods.”
— “Flags in the Dust,” William Faulkner
The Mets have never scored more runs in a month than they just did in August. Yet New York went just 11-17 over those 31 days.
So yes, it’s the pitching that’s top of mind.
Though inconsistent, the Mets’ offense has shown itself capable of being a juggernaut. (Only the Dodgers in May averaged more runs per game in a month in the majors this season.) It is an offense good enough to carry a team to a championship, the way Los Angeles’ did last fall.
But like those Dodgers, the Mets will need to get something from their pitching staff. And thus the most crucial task for New York in September — beyond turning its 93.2 percent playoff odds into 100, of course — is curating a glut of similar-looking options into the best, most adaptable pitching staff it can be for the postseason.
That mainly means figuring out what to do with the starters. The Mets are currently running a six-man rotation, and Tylor Megill will also be an option off his minor-league rehab assignment in the next 10 days. That’s seven starters, none of whom would look totally out of place starting a postseason game. (Before you roll your eyes, think back to who started Game 7 — Game 7! — of the 2006 NLCS for New York.)
But those options all possess some pretty big strengths and weaknesses. In most cases, it can easily be reduced to a battle between stuff and experience — and not postseason or big-game experience, but major-league experience, full stop. The best stuff on the roster probably belongs to Nolan McLean. He’s made three major-league starts — three damn good major-league starts, of course, but three major-league starts, all the same. It would be helpful for the Mets to see McLean endure some level of failure this season and respond positively to it before putting him into that October cauldron.
The next-best stuff on the roster? It might be Jonah Tong, who’s made one big-league start.
Had you sketched out a Mets’ postseason rotation three weeks ago, you likely would have penciled in Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Sean Manaea into the top three spots, in some order. But those starters produced unsightly ERAs of 6.18, 6.68 and 7.13, respectively, in August. Senga, in particular, is in danger of losing his spot in the regular-season rotation after another dud Sunday.
“We’re going to have some discussion about what’s next for him,” manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters postgame Sunday. That’s generally not something you say when a guy is going to make his next start.
Both Mendoza and president of baseball operations David Stearns have called the situation “fluid” with the rotation on a turn-by-turn basis. And the Mets should keep in mind how postseason baseball is different from regular-season baseball. For instance, is Peterson’s ability to provide length as meaningful in October as it is in July? Are Manaea’s profound issues in the fourth inning and beyond less significant because you won’t be asking him to go much farther? Can enough of the rotation’s flaws be mitigated by shortening those outings with a kind of piggyback system?
The Mets have toyed with piggybacking at various junctures this season, most notably with Paul Blackburn back in early June. They’ll soon have enough starting options — and enough distinct looks among those starting options — to make piggybacking palatable again. Again with a series of questions: Does Tong’s funkiness play up if he’s following Peterson in a game? Does Megill’s four-seam fastball play up if he’s coming in after Clay Holmes’ sinker-heavy arsenal? Did the poor experience in June sour the Mets on the concept entirely?
Just last fall, in using Senga to start a pair of Game 1s, the Mets prioritized a higher ceiling over a reliable floor. That same approach this season would point to significant October roles for McLean and Tong, provided they handle the next month reasonably well.
The postseason is a puzzle to get to 27 outs, and with each passing year, that puzzle requires more and more creativity. The Mets may very well have the pieces necessary for it, but orienting them properly remains one heck of a challenge.
The exposition
The Mets wasted all of the momentum from their series sweep of the Phillies by losing three of four to the Marlins at home over the weekend. New York is 73-64, six games behind first-place Philadelphia (79-58) and four ahead of Cincinnati (69-68) for the final wild-card spot.
The Tigers rebounded from a sweep in West Sacramento to take two of three in Kansas City. Detroit’s 80-58 record is the best in the American League by a half-game over the Blue Jays. The Tigers have a 4 1/2 game lead on a first-round bye into the ALDS.
The Reds salvaged at least one win last week by beating St. Louis on Sunday. Since reaching a season-best seven games over .500 at 67-60 on August 19, Cincinnati is 2-8, failing to put any legitimate pressure on the Mets for that final wild-card position. The Reds host Toronto Monday through Wednesday before the Mets come to town.
The pitching possibles
at Detroit
LHP Sean Manaea (1-2, 5.01 ERA) vs. RHP Charlie Morton (9-10, 5.25 ERA)
RHP Nolan McLean (3-0, 0.89) vs. RHP Keider Montero (4-3, 4.66)
RHP Clay Holmes (11-6, 3.60) vs. RHP Casey Mize (12-5, 3.95)
at Cincinnati
RHP Jonah Tong (1-0, 1.80) vs. LHP Andrew Abbott (8-5, 2.65)
LHP David Peterson (8-5, 3.61) vs. RHP Brady Singer (12-9, 4.08)
RHP Kodai Senga (7-6, 3.01) vs. RHP Hunter Greene (5-4, 2.81)
We go over this every year, but …
… anyone who’s in the Mets organization this morning is eligible to be on their postseason roster. They do not have to be on the 40-man roster yet.
Injury updates
Mets’ injured list
|
Player
|
Injury
|
Elig.
|
ETA
|
|
UCL sprain in right thumb
|
Now
|
September
|
|
Lower back inflammation
|
Now
|
September
|
|
Right elbow sprain
|
Now
|
September
|
|
Fractured left tibia
|
Now
|
September
|
|
Right elbow inflammation
|
Sept. 7
|
September
|
|
Ruptured left Achilles tendon
|
Now
|
2026
|
|
Left lat strain
|
Now
|
2026
|
|
Tommy John surgery
|
Now
|
2026
|
|
Elbow surgery
|
Now
|
2026
|
|
Tommy John surgery
|
Now
|
2026
|
|
Tommy John surgery
|
Now
|
2026
|
|
Left shoulder fracture
|
Now
|
2026
|
|
Tommy John surgery
|
Now
|
2027
|
|
Right elbow UCL injury
|
Sept. 28
|
2027
|
Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL
- In Triple A to rehab the torn ligament in his right thumb, Francisco Alvarez suffered a broken pinky finger on his left hand on Tuesday. He was back on the field by Saturday, and he caught all nine innings for Syracuse on Sunday. Alvarez has to show that he can tolerate the pain in each hand now — the right one more while swinging, the left one more while catching — but he could be back pretty soon. He and the Mets have obviously been aggressive with his rehab assignment to this point.
- Megill will make at least one more rehab start this week. The Mets have enough time on his rehab clock for an additional one beyond that if they decide it’s worthwhile.
- Jose Siri and Jesse Winker each started rehab assignments on August 27. The rehab clock for position players is 20 days, so the Mets would have to feel confident in their returns to the majors by September 16. They should get a sense on Winker relatively soon, as he’s trying to tolerate stiffness in his back. Since Siri has been out since April, he’s likely to use most of those 20 days to get his timing down.
- Reed Garrett has a chance to be back as soon as he’s eligible.
Scoreboard watching
Philadelphia (79-58): at Milwaukee3, at Miami3
Cincinnati (69-68): v. Toronto3, v. New York (NL)3
San Francisco (68-69): at Colorado3, at St. Louis3
St. Louis (68-70): v. Athletics3, v. San Francisco3
Arizona (68-70): v. Texas3, v. Boston3
Minor-league schedule
Triple A: Syracuse at Buffalo (Toronto)
Double A: Binghamton at Akron (Cleveland)
High A: Brooklyn at Jersey Shore (Philadelphia)
Low A: St. Lucie at Fort Myers (Minnesota)
A note on the epigraph
I feel bad for “Flags in the Dust,” which is a really solid novel that happened to come out the same year as “The Sound and the Fury,” which is more than a really solid novel. In the moment right now, it’s kind of like Tong’s debut compared to McLean’s.
Trivia time
In Mets history, what pitcher had the fewest career major-league starts before taking the mound as a postseason starter?
(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)
(Photo of Nolan McLean: Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)
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