NIL
Three Bold Predictions For This College Football Season


Merry Christmas Eve, college football fans!
That’s right, around this time tomorrow, we will have actual, live college football on our TV screens (and phone screens too, if you’re into that sort of thing, I won’t judge).
In honor of this momentous occasion, I thought I’d whet your appetite for pigskin with three bold predictions ahead of the 2025 college football season.
1. An “Off-The-Radar” Player Will Win The Heisman
Let’s be honest, the odds-on Heisman favorite to start the season rarely ends up hoisting the Heisman trophy.
To give you a refresher course, last August the preseason Heisman favorites were Dillon Gabriel and Carson Beck.
Cue the “Price Is Right” loser horn.
Sure, Travis Hunter had the best odds of a non-quarterback to start the season last year, but he was still a household name as a two-way dynamo at Colorado (he was on the cover of EA Sports’ College Football ’25, for crying out loud).
Ashton Jeanty, however, wasn’t on anyone’s radar outside the great state of Idaho, and he came within a nosehair of winning that bronze trophy in December.
Someone of a similar profile to Jeanty will not only be invited to NYC, but win the whole thing this year.
A few names to watch would be Kansas State QB Avery Johnson, Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons, and Arizona State WR Jordan Tyson.
2. Texas Tech Makes A Cinderella Run To The College Football Playoff Semifinals
They say money can’t buy happiness, but the fine folks out in Lubbock, TX, are about to find out if a ton of money can buy you a College Football Playoff appearance.
It’s no secret that I am fairly high on Texas Tech, and for good reason.
The Red Raiders spent a ton of money in the transfer portal, particularly in the trenches, to help beef up their roster.
It’s still a line of scrimmage league, at the end of the day, and Texas Tech is making sure they’re equipped to make a run at a wide-open Big 12 in 2025.
Regardless of seeding, the Red Raiders will not only have to win their conference, but they will also have to win at least one playoff game to make this bold prediction come true.
If anyone can be this year’s Cinderella Story in college football, it’s Joey Maguire and his merry band of billionaire oil barons.
Three cheers for the little guy!
3. LSU Misses The CFP, Fires Brian Kelly
I saved what is, potentially, my most scalding-hot take for last, and it is a doozy.
As our very own Trey Wallace wrote about earlier, LSU and Brian Kelly have pumped a ton of money into this roster to make a run at a College Football Playoff berth in 2025.
It’s been three years since Kelly arrived on the Bayou with his family, and although he was hired to keep the gravy train rolling in Baton Rogue, the Tigers don’t have a single playoff appearance to show for it.
With the expectations at an all-time high, LSU missing the CFP would spell doom for Kelly’s tenure in the state of Louisiana.
The Tigers will face a brutal first half of the season, having to travel to Clemson and Ole Miss, while hosting Florida and South Carolina in Death Valley.
Should they stumble out of the gate and drop two or three of those games, the team of transfers could fracture and the season might slip out of Kelly’s grasp.
Think 2024 FSU.
Kelly isn’t the most well-loved personality, so his leash could be a lot shorter than past coaches like Ed Orgeron and Les Miles.
When you’re winning, no one cares how much of a jerk you are, but if Kelly fails to produce a season worthy of the nearly $20 million dollars this roster is reportedly commanding, his days at LSU will be numbered.
NIL
College football’s leading passer seen as match for SEC program in transfer portal
Drew Mestemaker finished this season as the most-productive single passer in college football, and now the former North Texas quarterback is poised to enter the transfer portal, setting off a bonanza to secure one of the nation’s most consequential players.
What college football programs are expected to be involved in the bidding? When considering an ideal matchup pairing, one major SEC program currently sticks out.
On3 Sports analyst Kaiden Smith outlined what he thinks is the best destination for both parties.
Mestemaker to Rocky Top?
“If you’re Tennessee, you have this excellent track record with this offense, with transfer quarterbacks. Why not get a guy who you can get a couple years out of, as well?” Smith said.
“Parlay your offense and your transfer success with a guy who apparently is very early on his football journey in general,” he added.
What Mestemaker has done
Mestemaker led the FBS with 4,129 passing yards and was third in passer rating, placing behind just Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and finalist Julian Sayin.
He completed 70 percent of his pass attempts with 31 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions, being named the American Conference Offensive Player of the Year, leading North Texas to an appearance in the league title game.
But head coach Eric Morris left the school and took the same position at Oklahoma State, so that program could emerge as a contender for the quarterback.
Tennessee’s recent success
Recruiting transfer quarterbacks is something Tennessee has done well over the last several seasons, bringing on Hendon Hooker and then Joey Aguilar to lead productive offenses.
But both those players didn’t get to suit up for the Vols for too long. Bringing on Mestemaker would represent a longer-term investment in a very promising player.
“I think this is a guy that not only would fit perfectly with the scheme, with how quickly players have been able to understand the scheme,” Smith said.
He added: “You get a full offseason with him. But he can maybe build on that and build on that for years to come as just a redshirt freshman.”
Where the Vols are at QB
Aguilar is about to exhaust his NCAA eligibility and with precious little experience remaining on its quarterback depth chart, Tennessee is very much in the market for a signal caller with proven experience as a starter.
Aguilar is likely on the way out and redshirt freshman Jake Merlinger is planning to enter the transfer portal.
That leaves George MacIntyre and Faizon Brandon on the Volunteers’ expected quarterback depth chart heading into 2026.
MacIntyre has played in just two games, going 7 of 9 passing with 69 yards, and Brandon was a five-star commitment in the 2026 class, but with no NCAA experience.
Tennessee could look at Mestemaker as a proven commodity worth going after now rather than waiting for their prospects to develop.
Mestemaker is only a redshirt freshman with three seasons of NCAA eligibility remaining. Tennessee going after him could potentially inspire both MacIntyre and ultimately Brandon to leave the program.
So the question for the Vols would be if he’s worth that risk.
How the college football transfer portal works
College football’s transfer portal officially opens on Jan. 2, but that hasn’t stopped a flurry of players from entering their names for consideration at a new school right now.
The new 15-day transfer portal window from Jan. 2-16 and the elimination of the spring transfer period has condensed the timeline for players and programs to make their moves.
The NCAA Transfer Portal is a private database that includes the names of student-athletes in every sport at the Division I, II, and III levels. The full list of names is not available to the public.
A player can enter their name into the transfer portal through their school’s compliance office.
Once a player gives written notification of their intent to transfer, the office puts the player’s name into the database, and they officially become a transfer.
The compliance office has 48 hours to comply with the player’s request and NCAA rules forbid anyone from refusing that request.
The database includes the player’s name, contact information, info on whether the player was on scholarship, and if he is a graduate student.
Once a player’s name appears in the transfer portal database, other schools are free to contact the player, who can change his mind at any point in the process and withdraw from the transfer portal.
Notably, once a player enters the portal, his school no longer has to honor the athletic scholarship it gave him.
And if that player decides to leave the portal and return to his original school, the school doesn’t have to give him another scholarship.
(On3)
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NIL
Selecting ASU Alum That Can Change NIL Outlook
TEMPE — The NIL sphere has created a seismic shift in the world of college athletics – the ways in which Arizona State has been impacted are very real in the midst of the changes to the structure of athletics.
ASU football head coach Kenny Dillingham has been quite vocal in finding avenues for the football program to improve in that sphere – most recently making a plea for a mega-donor to make a program-changing contribution – much in the same way that Texas Tech’s fortunes were changed nearly overnight.
Arizona State on SI selects four power brokers who are affiliated with the school and have the potential to become folk heroes in Tempe.
Phil Mickelson

Mickelson – an Arizona State graduate in 1992 – is considered one of the best golfers of all time, ranking 8th in PGA Tour victories (45) and earning six major victories.
The legendary golfer has frequently shouted out the football program in social media posts over the last two seasons as well, confirming that he still associates with the university.
Mickelson is also reportedly boasting a net worth of $350 million, making the golfer one of, if not the prime candidates, to commit a hefty check to not only improve the football infrastructure, but university athletics as a whole.
Jon Rahm
Rahm, 31, is a native of Spain who played at Arizona State from 2012-2016, becoming one of the top amateurs in golf during those four years.
Rahm continues to maintain a residence in the Phoenix area and has seemingly stayed connected with the university over the years – he has the potential to be another heavy-hitting contributor alongside Mickelson.
Jimmy Kimmel
Kimmel, 58, is an outside-the-box addition to the equation here, as he attended, but didn’t graduate from Arizona State.
Still, it’s fascinating to bring up the possibility of a late-night show host contributing to the program and becoming immortalized amongst the fanbase despite not holding a diploma from the school.
James Harden
Harden is another clear option that is out there for a mega-donor.
The 36-year-old NBA star has built up multi-generational wealth over his career, and has never shied away from continuing to proudly display his affiliation with the program – even openly donating in the high-six figure totals to the basketball program’s NIL efforts, as well as returning to interact/practice with Sun Devil teams that are incoming each summer.
Regardless of what happens in NIL efforts of the university moving forward, there are options that could surely fulfill Dillingham’s desires.

Read more on why the Arizona State men’s basketball team will exceed expectations in the 2025-26 season here, and on why the bright future of the football program isn’t dimmed by the loss to Arizona here.
Please let us know your thoughts when you like our Facebook page when you click right here.
Please follow us on X when you click right here, as well as @khicks_21 for nonstop Arizona State coverage!
NIL
Who’s leaving Duke football as transfer portal opens Jan. 2
Duke’s Peyton Jones runs the ball during the second half of the Blue Devils’ 45-17 win over Elon on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025, at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, N.C.
The News & Observer
With roster management and player retention a big part of coaches’ jobs, Duke’s Manny Diaz had some good news to share at Christmastime: Quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Cooper Barkate are both returning for the 2026 football season.
Mensah, a redshirt sophomore this season and the ACC’s leading passer, had talked with Diaz and others about his NFL possibilities. But the former Tulane transfer decided to come back for a second year with the Blue Devils, where he again is expected to receive one of the top NIL packages in college football.
Barkate, who transferred to Duke from Harvard before last season, had 68 catches for 1,069 yards for the 2025 ACC champions, averaging 15.7 yards a grab, and scored six touchdowns.
The Blue Devils, who face Arizona State in the Dec. 31 Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, had just three players miss bowl practices, according to Diaz. One was offensive tackle Brian Parker II, who announced he would leave Duke early to enter the NFL Draft. Cornerback Chandler Rivers and defensive end Vincent Anthony Jr., also are preparing for the 2026 draft.
Duke also has another departure: running backs coach Chris Foster, who has joined the Florida staff after one year on the Diaz staff.
“The situation is always fluid, but I expect our retention rate to be very good, again,” Diaz said. Here’s a look at who the Devils will have leaving when the NCAA transfer portal opens Jan. 2:
Entering the portal
RB Peyton Jones: Became something of a forgotten man in the offense in 2025 with the emergence of Nate Sheppard and power running of transfer Anderson Castle. Played in four games after being Star Thomas’ backup in 2024 and rushing for 317 yards.
TE Vance Bolyard: The redshirt sophomore from Greensboro was used primarily on special teams in 2025. Played in 10 games in 2024.
OL Jack Small: A redshirt freshman this year, the 6-6, 300-pounder was used in just two games.
S Kenzy Paul: Redshirt junior saw little action in the secondary this season, playing in one game, the win over Clemson.
S Maliki Wright: Did not play as a freshman this past season.
CB Kyren Condoll: The California native played in one game in 2024 and again saw little action this season.
CB Vontae Floyd: Limited to three games because of injury in 2025, the sophomore played in 11 games in 2024 and was one of four true freshmen to letter for Devils.
DT Terry Simmons Jr.: The redshirt sophomore, a 6-2, 305-pounder, played nine games in 2025 as a backup defensive tackle and was at Duke for three seasons.
NIL
OU lineman Danny Okoye face of NIL deal to tout life-saving Narcan
Dec. 26, 2025, 5:40 a.m. CT
NORMAN – For University of Oklahoma defensive lineman Danny Okoye, his current spot – as the face of a social media campaign seeking to spread awareness of a life-saving drug for those who have overdosed on opioids – was a case of fortuitous timing.
Okoye is the first of a series of OU student-athletes who will participate in an NIL (name, image and likeness) deal with the nonprofit HarborPath of Charlotte, North Carolina, to promote Narcan, the brand name under which the generic drug naloxone is distributed.
NIL
Taylor column: Wyoming’s Wicks not using NIL as an excuse | University of Wyoming
NIL
How to make college football worse
Dec. 26, 2025, 5:03 a.m. ET
- Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn has proposed the HUSTLE Act to create tax-deferred savings accounts for college athletes’ NIL income.
- The need for congressional intervention is questionable, given that other wealthy groups, like NFL players, do not receive similar legislative protection.
If the hollowness of the bowl season or the irrationality of the playoff system has you saddened by the state of college football, it could always be worse. Congress could get involved.
It’s already bad enough that NCAA apologists want Congress to grant college athletics an antitrust exemption. Now Tennessee Senator (and gubernatorial candidate) Marsha Blackburn, in a timely act of pandering, wants to give college athletes special tax-advantaged savings accounts – “for their own protection.”
Blackburn’s comically named “Helping Undergraduate Students Thrive with Long Term Earnings (HUSTLE Act) would allow certain college athletes to create tax-deferred accounts for their Name Image and Likeness (NIL) income.
Don’t get me wrong; I’m a big fan of saving and investing, especially in a tax-deferred vehicle. But the aim of this act ‒ somehow protecting young people from squandering their NIL riches ‒ raises an obvious question: Where exactly is the constitutional mandate (or even suggestion) for Congress to pass laws discouraging 19-year-old millionaires from buying expensive cars and jewelry?
If Blackburn is genuinely concerned about young, wealthy athletes squandering their money, why didn’t she start with the NFL? A widely cited 2009 Sports Illustrated article claimed that 78% of NFL players “face financial stress or bankruptcy” within two years of retirement. This figure was likely exaggerated, but a statistically sound study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that 15.7% of NFL players file for bankruptcy within 12 years of retiring. Yet this hasn’t prompted any urgent Congressional push to save professional athletes from themselves.
If age is really the determining factor in financial responsibility, why is the fastest growing demographic of bankruptcy filers over 65? Why is the median age of someone filing for bankruptcy 49 and not 29?

Blackburn could, of course, propose legislation allowing college athletes to participate in the existing tax-deferred retirement accounts at their respective universities, but that would concede that the players are employees ‒ something universities want to avoid at practically all costs.
Not to be outdone by the Senate, the House of Representatives proposed the SCORE Act, which would grant NCAA institutions exemptions from antitrust laws – essentially codifying the illegal wage collusion the schools practiced for decades ‒ while also legally declaring that players are not employees of the universities that pay for their athletic services. Too many old timers simply can’t accept the end of decades of illegal (and in my opinion, immoral) athletic department business practices, so they are begging Congress to protect them.
Even if you concede the premise that 20-year-olds are incapable of making wise financial decisions and require assistance, why would Congress be the entity to turn to for financial wisdom?

David Moon, president of Moon Capital Management, may be reached atdavid@mooncap.com.

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