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We’re not far away from Bill Belichick’s head coaching debut at North Carolina.
So many questions, so little time.
The Tar Heels host TCU on Monday, Sep. 1, under the lights, as the 73-year-old coach, with 333 NFL victories and six Lombardi Trophies, aims to elevate a Carolina roster that’s essentially brand new.
Belichick’s team has 70 new players, including 40 or so from the transfer portal.
UNC won six games last season, and its 2025 win total is set at [O/U] 7.5. Expectations might be naturally unfair given Belichick’s résumé, but Indiana’s run to last year’s College Football Playoff has Chapel Hillians excited.
Remember, the Hoosiers went from 3-9 to 11-1 in one swoop.
“It’s very difficult to do what [Curt] Cignetti did at Indiana,” legendary Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White told me. “It’s almost impossible to change everything that quickly in one year and have that much success.”
White focuses on his power ratings, a system he learned from his father Pete around the fifth grade. A “100” rating is an average team. He creates his point spreads by subtracting the lower team’s score from the higher team’s score.
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So, if a 107-point team is facing a 101-point team on a neutral field, the line is -6.
“I ended last season with North Carolina at a 109,” White said. “I’ll start in the low 100s this year and pay close attention to the talent level over the first couple of weeks. If the potential is there, Belichick should improve that team from week to week faster than any coach in the ACC aside from Dabo.
“I try not to downgrade teams too much in the first couple games unless it’s blatantly obvious something is very wrong,” he continued. “But if a team plays really well the first two weeks, I’ve gotta be quicker to move their number at that point more than any other time during the season.”

White vividly remembers tinkering with the New England Patriots’ defensive numbers during Belichick’s Hall of Fame run in Foxboro. Even if he was relatively high on that side of the ball in Week 1, the defense usually improved.
“I upgraded the Patriots defense almost every year throughout the season,” White admitted. “He was such a lethal defensive mind, and he figured out how to maximize his players and scheme over the course of five months.
“On offense, Belichick likes the strategy of passing to take the lead and running to melt the clock. That led to a bunch of Overs in first halves and Unders in second halves. It was that way for years.”
After dominating young quarterbacks and rookies at the NFL level, Belichick’s staff must now help nurture a young quarterback of their own.
South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez is currently QB1 for the Heels, and he threw for 2,559 yards and 18 touchdowns in 11 games last year. Lopez can boogie, too, evidenced by his 463 rushing yards and seven ground scores.
Carolina fans are hopeful Lopez will develop under Belichick, as is the case with most of the players. Development is one of the most common words you hear from anybody close to the Tar Heels football program.
Multiple sportsbooks are reporting that North Carolina Under 7.5 wins is one of the most popular tickets across the country. Bettors don’t believe Belichick can balance a roster with question marks, not to mention some of the off-the-field distractions.
Time will tell.
“He should be able to demoralize young quarterbacks,” White cracked. “They’ll take some licks, for sure, but I’m more optimistic than most people that he can turn this thing around pretty quickly.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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As Fernando Mendoza put the finishing touches on a Heisman Trophy-winning season, he signed an NIL deal with adidas. Shortly after he won college football’s highest honor, the brand paid tribute.
Adidas released a video honoring Mendoza after he won the Heisman on Saturday night. The brand paid homage to his viral quote following the Big Ten Championship when the IU quarterback told FOX Sports’ Jenny Taft, “The Hoosiers are flippin’ champs.”
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Throughout the year, Mendoza not only became one of the biggest stars on the field, but one of the top names in the sport. He has a $2.6 million On3 NIL Valuation as Indiana soon prepares for the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 seed.
Just before IU took on Ohio State in Indianapolis, Mendoza announced his high-profile NIL deal with adidas. He is the latest college football star to partner with the Three Stripes, joining Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith and Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola, among others.
“Excited to share that I’ve accepted an opportunity to join adidas!” Mendoza wrote in a LinkedIn post. “I’m very grateful for everyone who has supported me along the way and excited to bring my passion for sport, leadership, and work ethic to the Three Stripes. Let’s get to work.”
Mendoza led the nation with 33 touchdown passes this year while completing 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 yards, to just six interceptions. Additionally, his $2.6 million On3 NIL Valuation ranks No. 5 in college football and No. 7 in the On3 NIL 100, the first of its kind and defacto NIL ranking of the top 100 high school and college athletes ranked by their On3 NIL Valuation.
Fernando Mendoza beat out Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia for the award, garnering 643 first-place votes and 2,362 points. Pavia got 189 first-place votes and 1,435 points. It’s the latest chapter in a special season for the former Cal star, who helped lead Indiana to its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
After the announcement, Mendoza delivered a passionate speech. As he wrapped, he had a message for young athletes who think they’re not getting enough attention or are ranked high enough.
“The truth is, you don’t need the most stars, hype or rankings,” Mendoza said. “You just need discipline, heart and people who believe in you. And you need to believe in your own abilities. I hope this moment shows you that chasing your dreams are worth it, no matter how big or impossible they seem.”
NBA legend Charles Barkley has not been shy about his thoughts on NIL and the transfer portal. During Saturday’s Kentucky vs. Indiana broadcast, he candidly discussed the landscape again.
Barkley called the game on ESPN alongside Dick Vitale, the first of two games they will work together. Vitale called for “stability” in college basketball – and college sports as a whole – because of the amount of player movement via the portal. He used Indiana as an example since new coach Darian DeVries virtually built the program from scratch.
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While Barkley acknowledged he’s in favor of athletes making money through NIL, he also called out players staying more than their four years of eligibility. In addition, he disagreed with the idea of athletes being allowed to seek better offers after every season.
“No. 1, I’m not opposed to players getting paid,” Barkley said on the broadcast. “I always want my players to get treated fairly. But I can’t remember the last time I heard the word, COVID. Some of these guys have been in college for six or seven years. If you’re in college for six or seven years, your name better be, ‘Dr. Somebody.’ You should not still be playing college basketball after six or seven years.
“But you should not have the ability to get a better offer every year. That’s not fair to any school that you are affiliated with because I can’t even do that. None of us can do that, take a better – Amazon, anybody or FOX Sports can come and say, ‘Well, we’ll give you more money and you can leave after every year.’ That’s not fair. … We’ve got to put some guardrails on these sports.”
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One of the other new parts of the college basketball landscape is G-League players seeking eligibility. The NCAA has changed its approach regarding players who played in the G-League, arguing they were not professional athletes in a way the old rule said. Instead, if those players are within five years of their high school graduation, they could become eligible unless they went through the NBA Draft process or signed an NBA contract.
To Charles Barkley, that’s another area that needs fixing. He does not think former G-League players should be able to play college basketball.
“We’ve got guys playing in the G-League coming back to college sports now,” he said. “I don’t think that’s fair.”
Hall of Famer and ESPN basketball analyst Charles Barkley has an opinion on most everything, and that includes the College Football Playoff committee’s decision to leave 10-2 Notre Dame off of the 12-team bracket.
Barkley and ESPN college basketball analyst Dick Vitale discussed the Fighting Irish’s CFP snub while calling the Indiana-Kentucky game on Saturday night.
“I was disappointed, but you could see it coming in the last couple polls,” Barkley said. “They were creeping up on Miami. And my biggest problem with the whole thing, everybody’s talked about head-to-head. First of all, that was in August.
“They were very close games [against] A&M and at Miami, but your team is not the same in August as it is in December. Notre Dame is playing as well as anybody in the country other than Indiana and probably Ohio State. And I don’t want to leave out the [Georgia] Bulldogs. Kirby Smart, that man can really coach.”

Notre Dame’s exclusion from the bracket after winning its final 10 games all by double-digit margins and being ranked ahead of Miami (10-2) in every CFP poll until the final one, even though neither the Irish nor Hurricanes played in that final week before the bracket was set, will go down as one of the biggest playoff controversies.
Ultimately, it came down to Miami’s 27-24 home win over Notre Dame in Week 1, a field goal with 1:04 remaining.
Miami supporters clamored and complained all along that the Hurricanes should have been ranked ahead of the Irish, given the same record, well before the final bracket was set. But the teams’ seasons went very different directions after that Week 1 meeting.
Notre Dame lost its first two games by a combined four points, including a 41-40 Week 2 loss to Texas A&M (another CFP team), before reeling off those 10 straight wins, most in dominant fashion.
Miami lost twice in a three-game span to unranked Louisville and SMU before regrouping and finishing strong.
The first CFP rankings came out after that second loss, with Miami landing at No. 18 and Notre Dame at No. 10. Because the teams weren’t close in their overall ranking, the head-to-head result didn’t factor in at the time, and that remained the CFP committee’s explanation even as the teams moved closer and closer in the rankings.
Ultimately, they were two spots apart at No. 10/12, separated by BYU, entering last weekend, when the Cougars got blown out by Texas Tech, essentially forcing the committee to consider Notre Dame and Miami side by side. Others have suggested that both teams deserved to be in over 10-3 Alabama, which lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Notre Dame has not taken the snub well and declined to participate in a bowl game as a result.
No. 10-seed Miami will play at No. 7 Texas A&M in the first round of the playoffs on Dec. 20.
President Trump this weekend noted the “current state of NIL is simply not sustainable and could cause serious damage to college athletics, and even the Olympics.” Trump during an event hosting members of the 1980 Miracle on Ice team said, “I think that it’s a disaster for college sports. I think it’s a disaster for the Olympics.” Trump: “The colleges are cutting a lot of their — they would call them sort of the ‘lesser’ sports, and they’re losing them like at numbers nobody can believe. They were really training grounds, beautiful training grounds, hard-working, wonderful young people.” Trump added, “A lot of these sports that were training so well would win gold medals because of it. Those sports don’t exist, because they’re putting all their money into football.” Trump: “Colleges cannot afford to be paying the kind of salaries that you’re hearing about” (OUTKICK, 12/13). Trump said of overhauling NIL in college sports, “Something ought to be done, and I’m willing to put the federal government behind it. And if it’s not done fast, you’re going to wipe out colleges” (USA TODAY, 12/12).
If you can’t pick one favorite, maybe it’s wise to pick two. That certainly seems to be the logical play with ESPN, as their FPI rankings give two teams an even chance to win the national title– even beyond the tenth of a percent. FPI is a slightly controversial prediction index that ties past performance into a mathematical attempt to predict future results.
Throughout the 2025 season, ESPN not only ranked the teams, but forecast their chance to win their respectives leagues, to earn a CFP berth, and even to win the CFP title. But heading into the opening week of CFP play, two teams are in exactly the same shape on top of ESPN’s ranking of most likely teams to win the national title.
Both Ohio State and Indiana are given a 25.9% chance to win the CFP title. Interestingly, Ohio State is slightly more likely to reach the title game, in ESPN’s reckoning (a 45% chance for the Buckeyes against a 43.1% chance for Indiana). The two are massive co-favorites, as ESPN’s third team in terms of title likelihood is Georgia, with an 11.6% shot at winning the title.
The only other teams with a better than 10% chance at the championship are Texas Tech and Oregon. The Red Raiders are rated at a 10.9% chance to win the title. The Ducks are rated with a 10.3% chance to grab the title.
No team outside of those five has a greater than 4.8% chance at winning the title– with that particular figure being linked to Ole Miss’s title chances. ESPN’s computers certainly don’t think well of the two Group of Five teams, as ESPN gives both Tulane and James Madison a 0.1% chance at winning the CFP crown. James Madison is rated with an 0.5% chance of reaching the title game, while Tulane’s chance is 0.4%.
The math-related details behind the CFP can be complicated. 6-6 Penn State is still FPI’s No. 17 team in the nation, while 5-7 Auburn is No. 26. FPI also greatly appreciated Notre Dame, ranking the Irish third nationally. That’s comfortably ahead of the Miami and Alabama teams that grabbed the last CFP spots instead of the Irish (Miami ranks seventh and Notre Dame eighth at all. But when it comes to title chances, the FPI is all in on two teams in an exactly equal measure.

NBA legend Charles Barkley has not been shy about his thoughts on NIL and the transfer portal. During Saturday’s Kentucky vs. Indiana broadcast, he candidly discussed the landscape again.
Barkley called the game on ESPN alongside Dick Vitale, the first of two games they will work together. Vitale called for “stability” in college basketball – and college sports as a whole – because of the amount of player movement via the portal. He used Indiana as an example since new coach Darian DeVries virtually built the program from scratch.
SUBSCRIBE to the On3 NIL and Sports Business Newsletter
While Barkley acknowledged he’s in favor of athletes making money through NIL, he also called out players staying more than their four years of eligibility. In addition, he disagreed with the idea of athletes being allowed to seek better offers after every season.
“No. 1, I’m not opposed to players getting paid,” Barkley said on the broadcast. “I always want my players to get treated fairly. But I can’t remember the last time I heard the word, COVID. Some of these guys have been in college for six or seven years. If you’re in college for six or seven years, your name better be, ‘Dr. Somebody.’ You should not still be playing college basketball after six or seven years.
“But you should not have the ability to get a better offer every year. That’s not fair to any school that you are affiliated with because I can’t even do that. None of us can do that, take a better – Amazon, anybody or FOX Sports can come and say, ‘Well, we’ll give you more money and you can leave after every year.’ That’s not fair. … We’ve got to put some guardrails on these sports.”
One of the other new parts of the college basketball landscape is G-League players seeking eligibility. The NCAA has changed its approach regarding players who played in the G-League, arguing they were not professional athletes in a way the old rule said. Instead, if those players are within five years of their high school graduation, they could become eligible unless they went through the NBA Draft process or signed an NBA contract.
To Charles Barkley, that’s another area that needs fixing. He does not think former G-League players should be able to play college basketball.
“We’ve got guys playing in the G-League coming back to college sports now,” he said. “I don’t think that’s fair.”
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