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Utah State transfer portal player breakdown — Zach Keller

Published

1 week ago

May 6, 2025

Utah State transfer portal player breakdown — Zach Keller

Utah State lost its starting center – the 6-foot-11 Aubin Gateretse – to graduation this offseason and needed to find some size to replace him. Former Utes forward Zach Keller, standing 6-foot-10, is a solid candidate to do the replacing. But a similarity in size is about all Keller shares with the man whose role he’ll try to fill as Keller will bring a much different skillset than the rim-running/rim-protecting Gateretse did. Jerrod Calhoun landed a stretch big with Keller who’s gone toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the country across three seasons in the ACC and Big 12.

Keller’s experience in some of the best conferences in the country is something Calhoun was quick to point out in the press release announcing Keller’s signing. But more important to this breakdown will be what skills he brings to the table, something else Calhoun touched on.

“Zach’s skill set fits our style of play perfectly, as a player who can be impactful both inside and out,” Calhoun said. “We look forward to seeing Zach thrive in our system.”

So let’s go through how that skill set fits the Aggies style and what to look out for with Keller’s game. There some great stuff, and some things he’ll need to work on, but Keller should be a good addition to Utah State’s roster.

A note on source for stats in this piece. Basic averages (points, rebounds, etc.) come from Sports Reference, as do the advanced stats of Win Shares and Box Plus/Minus. Bayesian Performance Rating comes from EvanMiya.com as does any lineup data used. All stats referencing specific shot types (i.e. shots at rim or jump shots) along with play-specific shot attempts (such as post-ups or spot-up shooting) come from Synergy Sports.

Biographical Info

Height: 6’10”
Weight: 235 lbs
Class: Senior (1 year of eligibility)
Hometown: Highland Ranch, CO
High School: ThunderRidge
Previous Colleges: Wake Forest (2022-23 & 2023-24), Utah (2024-25)

Keller was a pretty promising recruit coming out of high school in Colorado. He was a McDonalds All-American and the top-ranked recruit in the state, easily projected as a future starter for a high-major school. Wake Forest landed the young forward and he saw sparing minutes in 17 appearances as a true freshman. In his second season with the Demon Deacons, Keller got a glimpse of being a full-time player. Early in the season, injuries and eligibility issues among his frontcourt teammates led to him starting eight games over the course of about a month. He didn’t play major minutes, but in 19.5 minutes per game he averaged 4.0 points and 3.9 rebounds. That run ended when teammate Elfton Reid was granted eligibility to play and Keller’s minutes tanked, going from nearly 20 a game down to just eight the rest of the season.

At Utah, Keller’s minutes didn’t really improve all that much, though a preseason injury may very well have contributed to his fall in the rotation. Keller only missed three games, but missed a chance to become a frontcourt staple with fellow transfer Ezra Ausar earning the other starting forward spot instead. The most minutes Keller played in a game all season was just 17, in a blowout loss to Texas Tech.

Statistics

Zach Keller Career Per-Game Averages

Season	Team	GP / GS	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	FG%	3P%
2022-23	Wake Forest	17 / 6	2.3	1.5	0.2	0.4	0.1	36.1	20.0
2023-24	Wake Forest	27 / 8	1.6	2.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	34.8	29.2
2024-25	Utah	28 / 0	2.8	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	56.4	40.0

Here’s a summary of King’s advanced catch-all metrics, with context of his rank within his team, Utah, and his conference (Big 12).

Box Plus/Minus (BPM): -0.7 (11th on team / 130th in Big 12)
- Offensive BPM: -1.4 (11th / 124th)
- Defensive BPM: 0.7 (11th / 133rd)
Win Shares (WS): 0.6 (10th / 127th)
- Offensive WS: 0.3 (10th / 113th)
- Defensive WS: 0.3 (11th / 135th)
- WS per 40 Minutes: 0.085 (11th / 102nd)
Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR): 0.31 (10th / 133rd)
- Offensive BPR: -0.50 (10th / 137th)
- Defensive BPR: 0.81 (6th / 104th)

Strengths

Smooth jump shot
Size and athleticism to play both PF and C
Good touch around the basket
Defends well against physical bigs in the post

Weaknesses

Poor rebounder
Consistently struggles in pick-and-roll defense
Inconsistent in perimeter defense against guards or bigs

Scouting Report

After a season where Calhoun lamented a lack of scoring punch from his frontcourt, the Aggies have landed another big man that can put the ball in the bucket, though in different ways than some of his peers in the USU locker room. Keller has the makings of being a very skilled big, one that has great touch around the rim, catches the ball very well (even in traffic), can step out and shoot the three and even put the ball on the floor and attack the closeout. Finding all of those skills in a 6-foot-10 college big can be a difficult task, but it’s one Calhoun seems to have pulled off.

Keller has showcased three types of scoring that he can be highly effective at. In no particular order, those three are 1) Scoring as the roll man in the pick-and-roll, 2) Getting to the dunker’s spot and finishing after getting drop-off passes and 3) Stepping outside the arc and hitting 3-pointers.

Starting with the first of those, it’s really easy to spot the skill Keller possesses, even at his size, when seeing how he moves and makes plays in the pick-and-roll. When either setting a hard screen or slipping the screen, he’s able to quickly turn and catch the ball. But he’s capable of doing more than being a lob threat. Plenty of times when Keller got the pass out of the pick-and-roll, he still had some work to do and was able to dance around defenders and finish strong a the rim and with a buttery-smooth touch.

His roll man duties flowed right alongside his work as a cutting big, and he found a decent amount of offense in finding an opening in the defense where he could receive an easy pass and either throw down a dunk or finish a layup around a too-late challenge.

Keller can pair this skilled scoring in the lane with the ability to hit shots from the outside. His jump shot is very solid with a good release and fluid motion.

A minor hesitation on this 3-point shooting is that his percentages are a tad questionable despite how good the shooting form looks. His career percentage on 3-pointers in college sits at just 28.8 percent (including high school it’s 29.3), though it’s been steadily moving up. As a freshman he hit just 20 percent in sparing minutes but then upped it to 29.2 percent as a sophomore — with an important note that in his eight starts in 2023-24, the only time he got decent playing time, he shot 35.3 — and then shot an even 40 percent as a junior at Utah last year. The trend, at least as an optimist will hope, is that Keller is not only improving but he clearly shoots better when he’s given some time to get in the flow of the game.

Something Keller has not showcased in his career is post scoring. Synergy tracking credits him with nine career post-up possessions. Total. Even in what will surely be an increased role at Utah State, Keller’s rate of post-up scoring attempts is not likely to see a drastic increase. He may get a look in the post here or there, especially if he gets switched onto a guard, but the post is not going to be a place where Keller gets a notable amount of his points or looks. It’s just not in his bag of tricks.

Turning to some of the weaknesses of his game, one of the biggest concerns for Keller is his rebounding. For starters, his rebounding percentage of 7.8 is not so much a red flag as it is a tornado siren. Last year there were only 12 players listed at 6-foot-10 or taller who had a rebounding percentage under 8.0. And the film very much backs this up. It’s hard (though not impossible) to find an instance where Keller wins a contested rebound or creates a rebounding opportunity for himself or his team. His instincts for when to jump and where to be for box-outs is lackluster at best and it really works against his impact on the court. In four games where I was specifically tracking his rebounding efforts, there were no less than 13 cases where Keller had a pretty reasonable (or better) shot at getting a rebound and failed to do so.

This fact about Keller’s game has to change when he comes to play in Logan. The Aggies already had a bit of an issue with size, physicality and rebounding last year and Keller will be the tallest and potentially the bulkiest player on the team. Garry Clark and Karson Templin are the only other veteran bigs on the roster and they can’t carry the rebounding weight all by themselves (though maybe incoming freshman David Iweze can pick up some of the slack as well). If Keller isn’t physical on the glass and fighting hard for rebounds, or at least boxing out at a high level to let wings and guards pick up the board, it’s going to be a long season for the Aggies.

Another aspect that features a lot of red flags is Keller’s defense. There’s a few particular areas, but most of them involve times where Keller has to venture out onto the perimeter. The footwork and athleticism he shows on offense translates somewhat well to his defense out near the 3-point arc, but things just don’t seem to come together enough for Keller to be an impactful player. Most concerning is how he handles pick-and-roll defense. Whether team defensive schemes called for him to hedge the guard or play drop coverage, Keller struggled regardless. He’s not a natural rim/paint protector, which made his drop coverage less-than-stellar. And while he should be athletic enough to hedge, so many times he didn’t pull it off, leading to an easy dump-off pass and an easy score.

To put it bluntly, if there’s one area that Keller has to improve in to be a good player at Utah State, it’s his pick-and-roll defense. Even in the context of his rebounding struggles. The biggest hope is that the matchup zone scheme clicks with Keller and its pick-and-roll coverage principles fit better with his skills and mindset (check in later in this article as we’ll dive into some clips of his pick-and-roll defense with Utah and Wake Forest vs what it’ll look like at USU).

One area of defense where there isn’t as much concern is when he goes one-on-one in the post. Keller did a bit more in terms of post defense when he was at Wake Forest, but there are a few cases of him bodying up guys while at Utah. I’ve put together around a dozen clips, both the good and not-so-good, which will give you an idea of his overall post defense.

It’s worth noting some of the guys Keller went toe-to-toe with and won on multiple occasions. You have All-American forward JT Toppin whom he stonewalled twice into less-than-ideal post shots. There’s also Lynn Kidd (with Virginia Tech in those clips) who ranked 16th in the nation in post-up efficiency (min 100 post-ups) in the year in which Keller faced him. These were no scrubs that Keller stood up to. Now, it wasn’t all sunshine and daisies as he got punked in a couple of those clips, but by and large, Keller made it tough on post scorers. The main points of improvement for him will be to work on not yielding as much real estate in the post and having better balance and footwork to defend against finesse moves, which is something he clearly struggled with a bit more than those going for raw power.

Fit with Utah State

Keller’s role with Utah State will, by necessity, be pretty big. With the final addition to the roster made late last week, the Aggies will be carrying just four players who can be classified as bigs (i.e. centers and more traditional power forwards). Those four being Keller himself, along with Garry Clark, Karson Templin and the incoming freshman David Iweze. That’s a pretty thin frontcourt numbers wise. Keller will have to perform or the Aggies will end up relying on a true freshman for significant production (which may not be a bad thing, it’s just a risky endeavor).

As promised, let’s call back to Keller’s pick-and-roll defense and look at how he can try and improve that within Utah State’s scheme. I mentioned his struggles in both of the most common ways in which teams choose to deal with high pick and roll. First, we have the hedge, where the big comes above the screen to keep the ball-handler from going anywhere. In an ideal world, this gives the trailing guard to get back to his man and backside help from the defense gives the hedging big time to recover to the man he left alone in the paint. But, as in this clip, Keller gets it wrong by not reacting quick enough and truly hedging the guard, making it easier for the pass to the big.

The second major type of coverage is drop coverage. Keller had his struggles in these cases, but a bit more successful. It requires a bit more balancing as the dropping big has to fend off a drive while also not straying too far from the rolling big. This next clip also featured a failure, but it wasn’t as much on Keller since the trailing defending guard could maybe have done a bit more to deny the pass back to the big. Keller deterred the shot from the guard and can’t be everywhere.

Utah State’s pick-and-roll coverage, which Keller will now have to learn, is a bit of an in-between of these two. The big will kind of hedge the ball-handler, but doesn’t jump all the way outside to directly impede and/or double-team the guard, but it also isn’t true drop coverage. Slappin’ Glass referred to it as a “lateral hedge.”

It’s hard to say without seeing him try it, but there’s a decent chance this is a system that could help shield Keller from his own struggles in pick-and-roll defense. Something that also really helps is just how much the zone defense is built to not leave the big in no-man’s land as can very often happen to man defensive schemes in the pick-and-roll. The trailing guard quickly gets back to his man to let the big return to his mark, with the backside defense shifting over to deter any lob pass to the roll man. Keller will need some coaching and some significant work in this area, but it’s his chance to turn over a new leaf in this area of his game.

Shifting toward something more fun than sugar-coating a player’s weakness, I hinted at this in the breakdown of Kolby King. Keller has the chance to become a significant threat in the pick-and-pop game, especially if he ends up playing center a decent amount or shares the court with Garry Clark a lot. Utah State has several players who can be threats going downhill, Mason Falslev, Kolby King, Drake Allen and MJ Collins, and using ball screens to create opportunities for those guys to get downhill is common. When a big-man screens, he usually rolls to the rim and we’ve seen how Keller can excel there. But his 3-point shooting can create even more chaos as defending bigs usually don’t handle 3-point shooting bigs very well in these actions. Just look at Air Force trying and failing to account for Isaac Johnson in a simple pick-and-pop.

Beyond the obvious impact of being able to hit 3-pointers as a pick-and-pop center, there’s a knock-on effect this can have with teams that desperately don’t want to have their center leave the paint. Looking back on that same Air Force game you see how much the Falcons didn’t want 7-footer Wesley Celichowski to leave the paint. They ended up switching a smaller player onto Johnson to guard him on the perimeter. This allowed Celichowski to stay in the paint to deter shots at the rim without having to follow Johnson to the perimeter.

But this only works if the center can stick to a non-shooter, which is why the caveat about Keller playing center or being on the court with Clark (also a decent 3-point shooter) was made earlier. Because if you have five shooters on the court, you can do what Utah State did a couple of plays after the above clip. To facilitate keeping Celichowski in the paint, Air Force was switching the man guarding Dexter Akanno — in this next clip it was coincidently the future Aggie wing Luke Kearney — to guard Johnson. So when that switch occurred, the Aggies reversed the ball over to run a pick and roll with Akanno as the screener. Celichowski had nowhere to run at that point and it was an open 3-pointer for Akanno.

When you are able to throw out five-out lineups, you can drag opposing rim-protecting centers kicking and screaming onto the perimeter which in turn makes more room for guys like Falslev, King, Allen, Collins etc. Keller is a prime candidate to be a serious pick-and-pop threat if he’s able to shoot at least in the 34-35 percent rage from three. And he’s shown that capability at times in his career.

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Nick Saban downplays need for college sports commission, urges unified NIL rules

Published

2 minutes ago

May 15, 2025

Your Sports Nation

During an appearance on the SEC Network’s “Paul Finebaum Show” yesterday, former college football coach Nick Saban said that he “doesn’t believe there needs to be a commission to resolve the issues of college athletics,” which President Donald Trump reportedly “wants him to co-chair,” according to John Leuzzi of USA TODAY. Saban noted, “I don’t know a lot about the commission. Secondly, I’m not sure we really need a commission … the key to the drill is getting people together so that we can move it forward.” Saban: “I’m not opposed to players making money. I don’t want anybody to think that. I just think the way it’s going right now, it’s not sustainable and probably not in the best interest of the student athletes across the board or the game itself. So I think we need to protect the brand and the competitive advantages and disadvantages that are being created right now. And I think we can fix all that” (USA TODAY, 5/14). THE ATHLETIC’s Khan Jr., Vannini and Williams write while Saban’s comments “raised doubts,” sources said plans for the commission are “still moving forward.” The commission “is not official and still in the preliminary planning stages” (THE ATHLETIC, 5/15).

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The Leading Voice: Mit Winter On Hoops, Life, And The Future

Published

3 minutes ago

May 15, 2025

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On Jan. 24, 2001, in Williamsburg, Virginia, the Tribe of William & Mary opened up a 32-11 lead at halftime. Although James Madison closed the gap, the Tribe held on for a 71-58 victory. For most in attendance, it was just another win. Yet, for the Tribe’s leading scorer that evening, it was another moment in a basketball journey that would later be mirrored in his legal career—a career that would see him leading another ‘tribe,’ this time in the complex world of college sports law and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rights.

That leader?

Mit Winter.

The 6’7″ forward/wing combo, who finished his career at William & Mary with his name etched in the record books for three-point shooting and free throw percentage. Oh, and that game in 2001? Winter scored a then-school record 36 points and went 17-17 from the charity stripe. He is now one of the nation’s leading voices in NIL, House settlements, and student-athlete advocacy. His smooth jumper and knack for doing the dirty work are now replaced with sharp legal arguments and in-depth analysis of the evolving college sports landscape.

“I loved being a college athlete,” Winter reflects.

Now, as a seasoned lawyer specializing in the collegiate sports landscape, he’s protecting the student-athlete experience and, more importantly, ensuring that the future of college athletics remains a viable path for aspiring athletes.

Winter currently represents universities, collectives, agencies, college athletes, and college sports-related businesses.

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Russo on the potential of a presidential commission on college sports

With the House v. NCAA settlement still pending approval, The Athletic senior writer Ralph Russo joined us on Thursday’s edition of TexAgs Live to talk NIL and the transfer portal. Russo also delved into the Aggies’ offensive line entering Mike Elko’s second year as head coach. Key notes from Ralph Russo interview The idea of […]

Published

7 minutes ago

May 15, 2025

Your Sports Nation

Key notes from Ralph Russo interview

The idea of a presidential commission on college sports seems to have happened after Nick Saban and Donald Trump had a conversation in Tuscaloosa. It’s important to explain what a commission is not. It’s not a law-making body. It’s almost a think tank with the President’s power and approval. Why do we get together and talk about these issues and find solutions? Hopefully, they are actionable, it’s a good idea, and the power of the Presidency can push things along. It’s important enough to have a commission by the president. Maybe it will motivate people to have a solution and give lawmakers in Congress the motivation to cover and talk about this issue.
Think about this perspective. They need college legislation, whether a settlement passes or not. Still, there is a lot of stuff going on in this country right now. The public loves the idea that we have immigration and tax cuts, but Congress is taking on college sports. Maybe a presidential commission is the President’s signing off on tackling the issue. None of those things can be more symbolic than they are tangible solutions that come out of the commission. They can produce ideas, but not a law.
It’s not the President’s job to understand what is going on in college sports. If you can understand at a surface level, things are not great here. Even the people who are only dipping into it — not at the level like us, but fans — understand things don’t seem to be working here the best way for fans and athletes in schools. Understanding that, then getting to experts, this is where a commission comes in great. It’s only as good as the people sitting on a commission. Bringing experts together, some diverse thoughts and expertise and different ways of looking at this subject seems to be a good idea. It’s probably an idea that would have been effective seven to eight years ago. We are beyond college sports and the curve. It’s been a trend for two decades.
We don’t have enough people within the space working in collegiate sports. It’s a byproduct of the way the whole enterprise is set up. Everybody is concerned about their thing. If you work in the SEC, you worry about the SEC. If you work at A&M, you worry about A&M. Everyone is most concerned about their space, hence there’s a blind spot protecting the entity at large in college football.
With Saban being away from Alabama, it’s good to have him and others who are thinking about the entirety and not prioritizing what’s in their backyard. Is Saban the right guy? He’s outdated. What is progress? We can’t dial back on this stuff, but people need to understand that players are getting paid now. It’s a starting point. It’s figuring out now how to pay them properly in an unfair market and allow movement without infringing their rights. I worry that what Saban envisions is outdated and standing in the way of the progress that’s been made.
NIL became the de facto salary. That’s what it transitioned into. The idea now is that revenue sharing is the salary. We are going to have a salary structure for players. The question becomes, is there NIL in third parties and collectives that are available to these athletes, can that be regulated and is not, “Here’s $500,000, sign this football.” I don’t know the answer. Can it be regulated? I think the first part is super important.
I believe it’s not simple to fix, but I think you can rein in the movement, transfer and get it to the players with more freedom. Now they have too much. If we can regulate the transfer movement and get that down to a manageable level, then we bring the free agency market down, and they can’t renegotiate every six months. I wonder if the core of all of this is getting the transfer rules under control, the money flows with it, and it settles and is regulated to a more reasonable system.
If we keep moving on a linear path from where we came when A&M joined the SEC, we have moved in the direction you mentioned. Whether it’s a few conferences or a super league of 60 teams, maybe the Big Ten and SEC are the paths we are moving along. Talking about someone in the industry, about the idea, the reason I’m so sure we are going that direction is that there are so many factors outside that may change the trajectory. Maybe it’s federal legislation. They say we can keep doing this with the conferences, maybe the government steps in and says it’s ridiculous. You’re hurting other schools. Maybe it’s wherever the media industry goes into a degree and bursts or plateaus.
Higher education is in a weird spot, and many factors that affect the future of college sports are and aren’t directly tied to the future.
I do think Mike Elko seems like his career is short enough that No. 1: Yes, the jury is still out as to what he will do at A&M. You’re more than welcome to still be cautious and optimistic. In the short term, you nailed it. They overachieved last year, and then the record became familiar. But it felt a little better from others. It felt like a good beginning.
The O-line is huge. They didn’t go portal shopping, and Marcel Reed is the guy. It’s an interesting statement about who he is and his talent. You bring in portal receivers, who hopefully create explosive plays that were lacking last year. The running back is healthy. The defensive front is not as good, but A&M is better in the back end. I think it adds up with what you said, it’s progress, and the roster is great. But compared to the top of the SEC, you need one more full recruiting class and a freshman class to develop. They’re still a year a from banging heads with the top of the SEC.
Texas is at the top of the SEC, and that creates an angst for the Aggies to hit a fast-forward button. We can’t be 9-3 and satisfied when Texas is competing for a national championship. I think the dynamic of what happened in Austin and College Station is interesting and accelerates the angst in College Station.

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College Baseball Coach Takes Shot at Tennessee’s Transfer Portal Acquisitions

College baseball coach Paul Mainieri took a shot at some of Tennessee’s recent transfer portal acquisitions. It’s no secret that college sports have changed a lot of the years and perhaps the two biggest reasons for it are the transfer portal and NIL. In a recent interview, South Carolina baseball head coach Paul Mainieri was […]

Published

36 minutes ago

May 15, 2025

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College baseball coach Paul Mainieri took a shot at some of Tennessee’s recent transfer portal acquisitions.

It’s no secret that college sports have changed a lot of the years and perhaps the two biggest reasons for it are the transfer portal and NIL. In a recent interview, South Carolina baseball head coach Paul Mainieri was discussing some things that have changed since he left baseball, and the NIL was something he hit on.

“When I first got here last summer, we lost a lot of recruiting battles because other schools were giving a more, shall I say, appealing package to kids,” Mainieri said. “That’s the reality of the world we live in now. The schools that have a lot of money and are willing to give it to the players are getting the best players.”

Mainieri took it a step further though and specifically singled out two players that Tennessee acquired from the transfer portal last offseason and how they ended up in Knoxville.

“We were playing Tennessee, for example, and the first baseman (Andrew Fischer) and the No. 1 starting pitcher (Liam Doyle) both played for Ole Miss last year, and both had a lot of success for Ole Miss last year. Why would they change schools from Ole Miss to Tennessee? Because they like the color orange? I mean, let’s be honest.”

Fischer and Doyle have been crucial additions for Tennessee this season and regardless of how they got here, it’s become part of the game in college sports.

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Where the top 10 small forwards are committed for 2025-26 season

The college basketball transfer portal is closed following a record-setting 2025 cycle that saw more than 2,500 players enter during the 30-day window this spring. Most of the top prospects already committed elsewhere as rosters continue to take shape with programs finalizing key additions for the 2025-26 season. The 247Sports scouting team unveiled its final top 150 […]

Published

53 minutes ago

May 15, 2025

Your Sports Nation

The college basketball transfer portal is closed following a record-setting 2025 cycle that saw more than 2,500 players enter during the 30-day window this spring. Most of the top prospects already committed elsewhere as rosters continue to take shape with programs finalizing key additions for the 2025-26 season. The 247Sports scouting team unveiled its final top 150 transfer portal prospects in April, with a number of talented small forwards featured.

Of the 31 small forwards listed in the top 150, only three remain available in mid-May with the NBA Combine likely affecting those decisions. While the deadline has passed for undergraduates to enter the portal, there is no set timeline for when transfers must make their final decisions.

So, who are the top-rated college basketball transfer small forwards and where are they committed for the 2025-26 season?

RELATED (VIP): Auburn, Kentucky, Michigan headline winners of 2025 college basketball transfer portal cycle

Below is a look at the 10 highest-rated small forwards from the current college basketball transfer portal cycle and where they committed.

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100 days to college football: Top storylines, Heisman contenders, games

May 15, 2025, 07:15 AM ET One hundred days from now, the college football season will officially begin. Week 0 will kick off on Aug. 23 with an international edition of Farmageddon as Big 12 hopefuls Iowa State and Kansas State meet in Dublin. While we’re counting down days until the season starts, it’s never […]

Published

1 hour ago

May 15, 2025

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May 15, 2025, 07:15 AM ET

One hundred days from now, the college football season will officially begin. Week 0 will kick off on Aug. 23 with an international edition of Farmageddon as Big 12 hopefuls Iowa State and Kansas State meet in Dublin.

While we’re counting down days until the season starts, it’s never too early to look at storylines, players and coaches who should define 2025. We’ll even make some wild predictions.

This year, we’ll see six-time Super Bowl-winning coach Bill Belichick make his college football coaching debut at North Carolina and star QB Nico Iamaleava debut at UCLA after a dramatic transfer portal exit from Tennessee.

We’ll see former Georgia QB Carson Beck at Miami (if he’s healthy) and Arch Manning-mania officially kicks off at the Horseshoe when SEC favorite Texas travels to face Ohio State, the reigning College Football Playoff national champions.

Our ESPN college football reporters have put together 10 lists of 10 things to know (100 in total!) ahead of the college football season.

10 must-know storylines

10. The House settlement’s impact on walk-ons: Walk-on success stories have always been among the most compelling college football has offered, but as the sport evolves toward a more professional model, those slots are in jeopardy. Federal judge Claudia Wilkin delayed approval of the multibillion-dollar antitrust settlement last month largely because of the negative impact it was set to have on walk-on opportunities. The settlement included a proposal to limit football rosters to 105, which means that some programs would be cutting 20-plus spots designated for walk-ons athletes. We’ll have to wait to see how things are finalized before being able to draw specific conclusions but it’s hard to see a scenario where walk-on programs can be as robust as they have been. From the outside, it will be hard to see much of a difference, but for those on the inside, this rips away part of the sport that has been central to what makes it special. — Kyle Bonagura

9. Can Lincoln Riley and Mike Gundy bounce back? Just four years ago, these two were facing off in a top-10 Bedlam matchup, with Gundy’s No. 7 Oklahoma State team beating Riley’s No. 10 Oklahoma 37-33. Then Riley stunned everyone by departing for USC the next day, where he’s gone 26-14, including 4-5 in conference games in his first Big Ten season. Gundy, meanwhile, has gone 20-19 over that span, including 0-9 in the Big 12 last year. Gundy has always bounced back over a stellar career (including a 10-win season in 2023 after going 7-6 the season before), and last season’s 3-9 disaster was his first losing season since his first in 2005. But losing ground in the new Big 12 without Texas or OU has him squarely on the hot seat. Riley, meanwhile, has leeway because of the monstrous 10-year, $110 million contract USC gave him in 2022. — Dave Wilson

8. Diego Pavia and the fight for more eligibility: Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia won a landmark injunction in federal court that determined his junior college football should not have counted toward his four-year NCAA eligibility clock. The decision granted Pavia additional eligibility and led to a quick decision from the NCAA to issue a waiver for anyone else in his position. It was yet another court-mandated decision that has the potential to have a strong ripple effect through the sport. The most obvious change could be in recruiting. The option to go the junior college route looks a lot more appealing if it doesn’t count against an NCAA eligibility clock because many high school football players would benefit from another year of physical development at that age. It could allow players to become more sought-after recruits, increase their earning potential and ability to earn playing time early at a four-year school. The interesting part, though, is to think about where this could lead. Because it seems like it’s only a matter of time before someone else — or a group — goes to court to challenge the four-year eligibility cap or the existence of a cap on eligibility at all. — Bonagura

7. Is this NIL’s last big hurrah? Schools like Texas Tech have leaned into the NIL era, with 20 incoming football transfers and standard deals for all players in multiple sports. But once the $2.8 billion House v. NCAA settlement is approved by the judge, the NCAA says it will begin new oversight of NIL compliance. With distribution of up to $20.8 million in revenue sharing allocated to be paid directly to players, the NCAA says it will take a closer look at NIL enforcement, with all deals of $600 or more subject to independent review, along with new tech platforms to monitor payments. Part of the settlement provides for the creation of a new enforcement entity for Power 4 schools. While the NCAA’s record on enforcement in the past has been wildly inconsistent, many administrators still feel this will be the end of the pay-for-play deals that we’ve seen thrown around as a last gasp before the potential for the settlement and revenue sharing. — Wilson

6. Coaching encores: A lot can change in one college football season. Just ask Mike Norvell. Or Ryan Day. Two years ago, Norvell was hurting as his team was bypassed for the College Football Playoff, then watched the bottom fall out of Florida State’s 2024 season, going from 13-1 to 2-10. Ryan Day, meanwhile, lived both lives in a matter of months, losing on Nov. 30 to Michigan with calls for his head before getting in the first 12-team playoff field and beating Notre Dame to win the title on Jan. 20. So the theme for many coaches is what will they do for an encore? Day gets to replace quarterback Will Howard and running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Norvell convinced his old mentor, Gus Malzahn, to leave the head coaching job at UCF to focus again on just offense as coordinator at FSU. Meanwhile, Rich Rodriguez, who became a rising star by going 60-26 at West Virginia, returns to try to bring the Mountaineers back. And Scott Frost, who fell from grace back at his alma mater and got fired at Nebraska after going 16-31, returns to UCF, where he went 19-7, including going 13-0 in 2017. — Wilson

5. The Iamaleava dominoes: Tennessee transfer Nico Iamaleava and his brother, Arkansas transfer Madden Iamaleava, aren’t officially enrolled at UCLA yet. But during UCLA’s Spring Showcase, they watched as Luke Duncan took first- and second-team reps while Nick Billoups, who is in the transfer portal, also took some snaps, according to the Los Angeles Times. Meanwhile, Joey Aguilar, who is still taking classes from App State while he is enrolled at UCLA, where he transferred before Nico’s arrival, is now transferring to Tennessee to replace Nico. By this fall, Aguilar will be in Knoxville and the Iamaleava brothers could be Nos. 1 and 2 on the Bruins’ depth chart. Coach DeShaun Foster said “it’s just comforting” having Nico around, which is not the way Tennessee felt after a dispute over NIL money. He heads to Los Angeles after throwing for 2,616 yards with 19 TDs and 5 INTs. The soap opera will continue into the fall. — Wilson

4. Deion without Hunter and Shedeur at Colorado: The Colorado Buffaloes proved a lot of the skeptics wrong last year by posting a nine-win season and losing out on a chance to play in the Big 12 title game due to a tiebreaker. It was a remarkable improvement over the previous season, when Colorado finished in last place in the Pac-12. But for Deion Sanders, here’s where the real test probably begins. Even with a generational talent in Travis Hunter and a dynamic quarterback with his son, Shedeur Sanders, the Buffaloes were still just 13-12 over the past two seasons. They masked a lot of issues. Without them, the team’s on-field identity will inevitably evolve. And with that, we’ll also likely get a better understanding of how committed Coach Prime is to the job long-term. — Bonagura

3. DeBoer at Alabama, Year 2: Replacing Nick Saban at Alabama was always going to be a unique conundrum because it’s completely unfair to expect anyone to replace the greatest college football coach of all time. The coach who came after Saban was going to be measured against him. That’s just how this works. While that dynamic is probably unfair, that doesn’t make DeBoer’s task any easier. He left a place where the external pressure would be relatively nonexistent for the foreseeable future after leading Washington to a national title game appearance in his second season. The Crimson Tide were disappointing last year, but it also made sense that Year 1 was transitional as Saban’s shadow still loomed quite large. That will be the case for a long time, to varying degrees, but now that there has been adequate time to shape the roster into his own vision, it will be interesting to see how Alabama looks in Year 2 under DeBoer. — Bonagura

2. Manning, Mateer and Texas’ and Oklahoma’s offensive makeovers: The Red River Reboot is afoot. Quinn Ewers is gone after three years as Texas’ starter, giving way to Arch Manning, the Heisman favorite who has two starts and 28 career pass attempts under his belt. Meanwhile, at Oklahoma, the Sooners have imported an offense under new coordinator Ben Arbuckle and junior quarterback John Mateer, who arrived from Washington State, along with Cal running back transfer Jaydn Ott. The Longhorns, coming off two straight College Football Playoff semifinal appearances, lost star receivers Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond and tight end Gunnar Helm. The Sooners, meanwhile, are replacing Nic Anderson, Brenen Thompson and tight end Bauer Sharp while trying to bounce back from a 6-7 season and the departure of former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold to Auburn. — Wilson

1. Belichick goes to school: Let’s try to set aside the sideshow that is Bill Belichick’s personal life and return our attention to why anyone is fascinated with him in the first place. Arguably the greatest football coach who has ever lived, a man who won six Super Bowls as the head coach of the New England Patriots but has never coached at the college level, will begin his reign at North Carolina. There have been all sorts of outside-the-box coaching experiments in recent years, but this one — strictly from a football standpoint — might be the most interesting. His arrival in Chapel Hill comes with so many questions. Can he relate to college-aged players? Does his style translate to the college level? How long will he stay? But they really all boil down to one: Will he win? The last time North Carolina won a conference title (1980), the millennial generation had yet to arrive. — Bonagura

10 best games to watch

10. Ohio State at Michigan, Nov. 29: The Buckeyes couldn’t lose a fifth straight to the Wolverines … right?

9. Texas A&M at Notre Dame, Sept. 13: Notre Dame isn’t easing into 2025. After a Week 1 trip to Miami, the Irish open their home schedule against an ambitious A&M team that returns starting quarterback Marcel Reed and starts the season with a couple of pretty easy tune-ups. This one will speak volumes about either team’s potential CFP prowess (and about Notre Dame’s new starting QB of choice).

8. South Dakota at North Dakota State, Sept. 27: Yes, that’s South Dakota, not South Dakota State. With SDSU losing its head coach and quite a few transfers to Washington State, and with NDSU itself rebuilding a solid amount, South Dakota might never have a better chance to make a big splash. Can new head coach Travis Johansen and star running back Charles Pierre Jr. make an early splash in the Fargodome?

7. Montana State at Montana, Nov. 22: It’s hard to beat Brawl of the Wild under any circumstances, but after dropping three of its past five games (and watching rival MSU storm to the national title game), Montana went big in the portal, adding four FBS power-conference transfers. This one could determine a top FCS playoff seed.

6. Boise State at Notre Dame, Oct. 4: Aside from maybe Tulane-Ole Miss (Sept. 20) or Memphis-Arkansas (Sept. 20), this is the best chance for an aspiring Group of 5 playoff team to score a statement win in 2025. Boise State must replace Ashton Jeanty but returns plenty of key players from last year’s CFP squad, and after a tricky September slate, Notre Dame might be facing a must-win here.

5. Oregon at Penn State, Sept. 27: On the same day as Bama-Georgia, two Big Ten teams with massive expectations face their first huge tests of the season. Penn State has had just about the best offseason a team can have and will probably be a slight favorite in a rematch of last year’s Big Ten championship.

4. Texas at Georgia, Nov. 15: Texas went 0-2 against Georgia and 13-1 against everyone else in 2024. The Longhorns’ first-ever trip to Athens should pack major stakes for the SEC title, CFP seeding and, if Arch Manning (or Gunner Stockton?) lives up to hype, the Heisman. Who could ask for anything more in mid-November?

3. Penn State at Ohio State, Nov. 1: The ultimate existential Penn State hurdle. Penn State hasn’t beaten Ohio State (or won the Big Ten) since 2016 but will bring massive experience and national title potential to Columbus for this status check. Meanwhile, Ohio State might be looking at its first major challenge since Texas. We’ll learn loads about each team heading into the stretch run.

2. Alabama at Georgia, Sept. 27: We’re including a trio of enormous Week 5 games here, but even though Bama and Georgia have gone, gasp!, two straight years without one of them winning a national title, it’s still hard to create a bigger college football matchup than this one. Likely starting QBs Gunner Stockton (UGA) and Ty Simpson (Bama) have a high bar to clear after last year’s amazing 41-34 Bama win.

1. Texas at Ohio State, Aug. 30: Two of the richest programs in the country, playing in a rematch of a down-to-the-wire CFP semifinal, with two former all-world recruits at quarterback — Texas’ Manning and, potentially, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (if he can hold off Lincoln Kienholz)? Is it even possible to have a bigger opening-week showdown? — Bill Connelly

10 coaches to watch

Thamel: UNC still getting used to Belichick’s publicity

Pete Thamel joins “SportsCenter” to break down the latest headlines surrounding North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick.

10. Dabo Swinney, Clemson: He’s seven years removed from his last national title and has taken heat for largely stiff-arming the transfer portal and digging in on certain philosophies. After a surprise ACC title in 2024, Swinney has one of his best rosters, filled with homegrown players like quarterback Cade Klubnik, wide receiver Antonio Williams and defensive linemen Peter Woods and T.J. Parker, but he also integrated a few transfers. He aims for his third national championship doing it his way.

9. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State: After winning Big 12 Coach of the Year in 2021 and 2023, Gundy had the Pokes positioned to contend annually in the reshaped league. Coming off his worst season, though, Gundy needs a turnaround with a reshaped coaching staff and a transfer-laden roster to keep his job. Oklahoma State has questions at quarterback and just about everywhere else. Gundy has won too many games to be counted out, but he will need one of his best coaching jobs to stabilize things.

8. Mike Norvell, Florida State: Norvell is entering his sixth year at FSU, but doesn’t it feel like longer? He started off with two losing seasons and then won 10 games before a 13-0 start to the 2023 season that culminated with an ACC championship. But the CFP snub sent Florida State into a tailspin, as the team went 2-10 last fall. Norvell hired notable coordinators Gus Malzahn and Tony White to help engineer a turnaround, which he’ll need to reach Year 7 in Tallahassee.

7. Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame: He entered 2024 with questions about his readiness, amplified after a Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois, but ended the season in the national title game. After getting everything he could out of his team, Freeman has a younger but arguably more talented squad in 2025. Notre Dame will ride with an unproven quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey, but returns stars on both sides of the ball. Another CFP appearance will cement the 39-year-old Freeman as one of the sport’s best coaches.

6. Brian Kelly, LSU: Kelly came to the Bayou with the expressed purpose of winning a national title, just like the three Tigers coaches before him (Ed Orgeron, Les Miles, Nick Saban). Instead, he watched his former team, Notre Dame, make a CFP run while he sat home again. Kelly could have his best team as quarterback Garrett Nussmeier stayed, and LSU made a strong transfer portal push. He needs a good start at Clemson, though, after dropping his first three season openers with the Tigers.

5. Deion Sanders, Colorado: The spotlight has been on Sanders since he arrived in Boulder, and Year 3 will be no different. What will be new: He no longer will be coaching his sons Shedeur Sanders and Shilo Sanders, or 2024 Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. Phase 2 of Coach Prime at CU will feature a team trying to build on a nine-win season and challenge for the Big 12 title. A quarterback competition featuring Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter, decorated incoming freshman Julian Lewis and holdover Ryan Staub adds intrigue.

4. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama: DeBoer followed a coaching icon in Nick Saban and went through a turbulent first season, as Alabama missed the CFP despite the expanded field. He has had a full offseason to shape and develop the roster, and reunited with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who was integral to the Washington Huskies’ surge. It must pick a quarterback, likely Ty Simpson or Austin Mack, and get more overall consistency. Another CFP miss won’t be received well in Tuscaloosa.

3. Brent Venables, Oklahoma: His return to OU momentarily dulled the pain and anger surrounding coach Lincoln Riley’s abrupt departure. But the Sooners’ results under Venables have been painful, too: 22-17 overall, 2-6 in OU’s inaugural SEC season and an offense that plummeted to 119th in passing and 97th in scoring last season. Oklahoma had a strong offseason, adding transfer quarterback John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State, and other notable transfers like Cal running back Jadyn Ott. Venables now must win or face significant job pressure.

2. James Franklin, Penn State: He led Penn State to its first two CFP wins last season and will have quite possibly his best overall team, led by quarterback Drew Allar. But Franklin still faces the perception that he can’t win the biggest games consistently. Can he deliver Penn State’s first national title since 1986? The ingredients are there — Allar, running back tandem Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles — but Franklin must now meet the highest of expectations.

1. Bill Belichick, North Carolina: The most talked-about coach entering the 2025 season is a 73-year-old who has never worked at the college level, but guided the New England Patriots to six Super Bowl championships. North Carolina conducted spring practice largely in secret, but Belichick then became the story of the offseason for reasons that had little to do with football. Will his first year be desirable or disastrous? There may be no in-between as he takes over amid so many questions. — Adam Rittenberg

10 early Heisman Trophy contenders

10. Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama: As a 17-year-old true freshman, Williams was one of the most electric playmakers in the country the first part of last season. He had five touchdown catches in his first four games, including the game winner against Georgia, and finished the season with 10 touchdowns (eight receiving, two rushing). Williams has tremendous big-play ability. He averaged 18 yards per catch and is as dangerous catching the deep ball as he is at making things happen after the catch. — Chris Low

9. John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma: Cam Ward won the Heisman Trophy and became the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft after transferring to Miami from Washington State. Mateer, another Wazzu transfer, is coming off of his own breakout season following two years of backing up Ward. If the Sooners can protect him — a big if — Mateer could become the next in a long line of OU transfer QBs (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts) to contend for the Heisman. — Jake Trotter

8. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame: Love ranked second last year in yards after contact per rush (among running backs with at least 150 carries) after averaging 4.41 yards, only trailing Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, the No. 6 overall pick in last month’s NFL draft. Love, who figures to get more touches for the Irish in 2025, could be the first back off the board in next year’s draft. — Trotter

7. LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina: There may not be a more valuable player in the country than the 6-foot-3, 240-pound Sellers, who’s next to impossible to tackle when he breaks out of the pocket. Sellers looks and plays a lot like Cam Newton did when Newton was at Auburn for his 2010 Heisman Trophy season. Sellers, a redshirt sophomore, needs to become a more polished passer. He accounted for 25 touchdowns (18 passing, seven rushing) last season and was one of five Power 4 quarterbacks to pass for more than 2,500 yards and rush for more than 600 yards. — Low

6. Drew Allar, QB, Penn State: Though he tossed a catastrophic late interception in Penn State’s loss to Notre Dame in the playoff semifinals, Allar is coming off a banner 2024 with a QBR of 77.5, which ranked 16th nationally. Allar took a big jump from 2023 to last season and could make another sizable leap in his third year as the starter. — Trotter

5. DJ Lagway, QB, Florida: There was some concern this spring about Lagway’s throwing shoulder, but coach Billy Napier said Lagway should be 100% by June. He was one of the top true freshmen in college football last season and led the Gators to wins in their last four games of the season after Graham Mertz was injured. At 6-3 and 240 pounds, Lagway has elite arm strength and is extremely tough to bring down in or outside the pocket. He threw 12 touchdown passes in 192 attempts last season. — Low

4. Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU: After waiting his turn for three years, Nussmeier had a breakout year in 2024 and enters his redshirt senior season as the starter for the second straight season. Nussmeier was fifth nationally and second in the SEC with 4,052 passing yards a year ago. He threw 29 touchdown passes but was also intercepted 12 times. Nussmeier’s experience and toughness make him one of the unquestioned leaders in the LSU locker room. He engineered fourth-quarter comebacks in wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina last season. — Low

3. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State: Multiple NFL scouts and personnel told ESPN that Smith would’ve been a top-five pick in this most recent draft, had he been eligible. Instead, the 19-year-old phenom, who won’t be eligible for the draft until 2027, will power a retooling Ohio State offense still boasting plenty of talent, albeit inexperienced, around him. — Trotter

2. Arch Manning, QB, Texas: Though he has attempted only 63 career passes, Manning is the current favorite to win the Heisman, according to ESPN BET. With his famous surname, Manning has as much national hype as any first-time, full-time starting QB in recent college football history. He’ll be tested immediately, when the Longhorns travel to Ohio State to face the defending national champion Buckeyes in Week 1. — Trotter

1. Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson: Klubnik has grown tremendously since his first season as a starter in 2023. The 6-2, 210-pound senior ranks in the top five in Clemson history in nearly every passing category and put up huge numbers a year ago when he was one of two FBS quarterbacks with more than 3,600 passing yards and 400 rushing yards. He accounted for 43 touchdowns (36 passing, seven rushing) and threw only six interceptions in 486 passing attempts. What’s more exciting is he has all of his top wide receivers returning for the 2025 season. — Low

10 potential first-time CFP teams

10. Texas A&M: The Aggies are last on the list because of last year’s inconsistency, losing four of their last five games after looking like a potential playoff team for a skinny minute. With all five starters returning on the offensive line and a strong running game, there should be some relief for quarterback Marcel Reed. The Aggies could make a playoff statement early with a Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame.

9. Louisville: USC transfer quarterback Miller Moss might be the most talented quarterback that coach Jeff Brohm has had to work with at Louisville, and he’ll be surrounded by plenty of talent. Louisville has also added 20 players from the portal. Remember, Louisville lost three games by seven points last year. If they can win at Miami and SMU, and beat Clemson at home, they should be in the CFP hunt.

8. Florida: The Gators again have one of the most difficult schedules in the country, but they also have one of the best quarterbacks in DJ Lagway — as long as they can keep him healthy. Lagway went 6-1 as the starter last year, but the Gators are lower on this list because of a gauntlet that includes road games at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. It would be surprising to see Florida win the SEC — but if it finishes with two or maybe even three losses, depending on the games and opponents, it could earn an at-large bid.

7. Texas Tech: This might come as a surprise to those unfamiliar with the program, but coach Joey McGuire has landed one of the top transfer portal classes in the country, and the overall financial backing of the program has been significant in recent years. The Red Raiders reportedly spent more than $10 million to sign 17 players, with a focus on both lines. If they can avoid upsets and earn a winning record against Arizona State, K-State and BYU, the Red Raiders can be a surprise Big 12 — and CFP — contender.

6. Kansas State: If the Wildcats beat Iowa State in their season opener in Dublin, Ireland, they’ll take the early lead as the Big 12’s best playoff hope. The return of quarterback Avery Johnson is significant, as the dual-threat player racked up 3,317 yards of offense and 32 touchdowns. Expectations are even higher in his second season as the starter.

5. BYU: The Cougars were another fringe playoff contender last year, and will have to win on the road to take the next step. They have tough trips to Colorado, Iowa State and Texas Tech, but they return top talent in quarterback Jake Retzlaff, running back LJ Martin, and receivers Chase Roberts and Keelan Marion.

4. Iowa State: In another wide-open Big 12 race, the Cyclones return enough talent to win the school’s first conference title in 113 years. Iowa State is coming off its first 11-win season, and quarterback Rocco Becht is back, along with top tailbacks Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III. Home games against BYU and Arizona State gave it the edge here.

3. Miami: The Canes had a case for playoff inclusion last fall and could guarantee themselves a spot if they can win the ACC — which they’re capable of doing with transfer quarterback Carson Beck from Georgia. Quarterback wasn’t the problem, though, last year — the defense was. If the Canes can avoid the losses to unranked opponents, they’d be in. A win against Notre Dame in the season opener would set the tone early.

2. South Carolina: The Gamecocks were a fringe CFP team last year and could take another step forward as an at-large team this year under the leadership of talented returning quarterback LaNorris Sellers. If they can go 2-0 against the ACC and pull off some SEC upsets along the way, the Gamecocks’ CFP chances will rise.

1. Illinois: The Illini return 18 starters, including quarterback Luke Altmeyer and all five starters on the offensive line. They also don’t play Oregon, Michigan or Penn State. If you’re looking for this year’s version of Indiana, the Illini could be it — dominant enough against a manageable schedule to earn an at-large bid without winning the Big Ten. — Heather Dinich

10 freshmen to watch

10. Gideon Davidson, RB, Clemson: Davidson, ESPN’s No. 3 running back in 2025, rushed for more than 5,000 yards and 80 touchdowns over his final two high school seasons. Coach Dabo Swinney said last month the 5-foot-11 rusher is “physically” ready for first-team snaps but still needs to develop into a complete running back. If Davidson can refine his blocking skills and learn the offense, he stands as Clemson’s most intriguing potential replacement for 1,115-yard rusher Phil Mafah.

9. Jahkeem Stewart, DE, USC: A towering defensive end at 6-5, 290 pounds, Stewart was ESPN’s No. 1 prospect in 2026 before he reclassified into the 2025 cycle last fall. Stewart played only one varsity season, totaling 85 tackles (33 for loss) and 20 sacks as a sophomore in 2023, and might require time to develop. But he should at the very least inject some energy into a Trojans pass rush that finished 91st nationally in sacks (21) last fall.

8. D.J. Pickett, CB, LSU: Previously ranked as ESPN’s No. 1 athlete in the 2025 class, Pickett joins the Tigers as the program’s highest-ranked cornerback recruit since coach Brian Kelly arrived in 2021. Pickett’s combination size and speed at 6-4, 190 pounds should make him a versatile option for LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker, and the Tigers’ lack of experienced cornerback talent behind projected starters Ashton Stamps and Mansoor Delane means Pickett will have an opportunity to compete for snaps on day one.

7. Devin Sanchez, CB, Ohio State: Coveted for his length and sudden speed at 6-2, 185 pounds, Sanchez was the No. 1 cornerback prospect in the 2025 class. ESPN national recruiting analyst Craig Haubert has likened Sanchez to former Buckeyes standout Denzel Burke, and the five-star freshman should challenge junior Jermaine Mathews Jr. as Ohio State works to fill Burke’s starting spot under first-year defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.

6. Julian Lewis, QB, Colorado: Lewis, a long-time USC pledge, ended a lengthy recruiting saga with his flip to coach Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes last November. A 39-game starter in high school, Lewis enters a quarterback battle in 2025 with Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter. Given Salter’s experience and Lewis’ age after reclassifying from the 2026 cycle, Lewis might need to be patient in Year 1, but his time will come at Colorado.

5. Justus Terry, DT, Texas: An explosive interior presence at 6-5, 263 pounds, Terry emerged as perhaps the most disruptive defensive line prospect in the 2025 class. After stiff-arming in-state Georgia to join the Longhorns, Terry should at least challenge for a situational role in 2025 as part of a Texas defensive line replacing its top four defensive tackles from a year ago.

4. Michael Fasusi, OT, Oklahoma: Fasusi’s decision to stick with the Sooners over late pushes from Texas and Texas A&M was a silver lining for Oklahoma last December amid a 6-7 finish. The 6-5, 302-pound player dominated competition at the Under Armour All-America game a month later. If he settles in quickly under Sooners offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh, Fasusi could carve a role up front this fall, similar to Cayden Green in 2023.

3. Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon: Moore, No. 4 in the 2025 ESPN 300, was Keelon Russell’s primary target at Duncanville (Texas) High School, where he accounted for 2,983 receiving yards and 37 touchdowns across his junior and senior seasons. A college-ready playmaker with track speed, Moore is capable of making an impact in Year 1 within a Ducks offense missing four of its top five pass catchers from 2024.

2. Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama: A dynamic playmaker from Duncanville, Texas, Russell dominated one of the nation’s top high school classifications en route to Gatorade National Player of the Year honors in 2024. Similar to Bryce Underwood, Russell — a former SMU pledge — steps into an uncertain quarterback situation behind Ty Simpson and Austin Mack this fall. Whether it’s 2025 or beyond, Russell will get a shot to start for the Crimson Tide sooner rather than later.

1. Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan: Underwood, the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2025 ESPN 300, shook the sport with his flip from LSU to in-state Michigan 13 days before the early signing period. A four-year starter who threw for 11,488 yards and 152 touchdowns in high school, Underwood is the Wolverines’ future under center. Depending on how Fresno State transfer passer Mikey Keene settles in, the gifted, 6-4, 208-pound quarterback could challenge to become the program’s present as soon as this fall. — Eli Lederman

10 transfers to watch

10. Max Klare, TE, Ohio State: The Buckeyes’ passing attack didn’t need any extra help going into 2025 with the star power the team returns at wide receiver, but Klare could end up being a sneaky great addition. The Purdue transfer ranked fourth among all Power 4 tight ends with a team-high 685 receiving yards on 51 receptions last season and should be a dependable target for the Buckeyes’ inexperienced QBs.

9. Nic Anderson, WR, LSU: The Tigers have put together a CFP-caliber roster with an elite portal class this offseason full of proven starters. Anderson sat out almost the entire 2024 season because of injury but showed he can be a big-time playmaker at Oklahoma in 2023, turning 38 catches into 798 yards and 10 TDs. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier should greatly benefit from the arrival of Anderson and Kentucky transfer Barion Brown, two of the top wideouts from the portal.

8. David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: The Red Raiders went all-in for 2025 and assembled an absolutely loaded portal class this offseason. Bailey, a former freshman All-American at Stanford and a projected early-round NFL draft pick next year, is teaming with fellow transfers Lee Hunter (UCF), Romello Height (Georgia Tech) and Skyler Gill-Howard (Northern Illinois) to give Texas Tech one of the most talented defensive lines in the country.

7. Zachariah Branch, WR, Georgia: Adding difference-makers at wide receiver was a huge priority for the Bulldogs this offseason. They landed an explosive playmaker in Branch, a first-team All-America kick returner who produced 1,863 all-purpose yards and six TDs over two seasons at USC. Georgia OC Mike Bobo is going to have a lot of fun finding different ways of getting Branch involved.

6. Isaiah World, OT, Oregon: The Ducks landed lots of proven players via the portal, including running back Makhi Hughes (Tulane) and safety Dillon Thieneman (Purdue), but World is the one who has pro scouts buzzing. The 6-foot-8 left tackle was a three-year starter at Nevada and should be an excellent replacement for first-round pick Josh Conerly Jr.

5. Eric Singleton Jr., WR, Auburn: Singleton, a freshman All-American in 2023, caught 104 passes for 1,468 yards and scored 10 TDs over his two seasons at Georgia Tech, and also ran track for the Yellow Jackets. He’s bringing blazing speed and excellent route running to a Tigers offense that will be led by Oklahoma transfer QB Jackson Arnold and a bunch of high-impact portal additions.

4. Carson Beck, QB, Miami: Beck initially declared for the NFL draft but wisely reversed course and came back to school after Miami made an offer he couldn’t refuse. He brings serious big-game experience to the table for the Hurricanes as a two-year starter with a 24-3 career record and put up more than 8,000 total yards and 63 total TDs at Georgia. He sat out spring practice while he recovered from elbow surgery but is ready to step in as Cam Ward’s successor and prove he’s a first-round talent.

3. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti worked wonders with veteran transfer Kurtis Rourke leading his offense in 2024. If Mendoza can enjoy similar success, he could become a first-round pick next year. Mendoza, a 19-game starter at Cal, threw for 3,004 yards on 69% passing last season while playing behind a line that surrendered the most sacks in FBS. After earning a CFP bid in Cignetti’s debut season, the Hoosiers couldn’t have found a better QB to keep them in the Big Ten race in Year 2.

2. Darian Mensah, QB, Duke: Mensah flew completely under the radar as a two-star recruit and didn’t get much national attention last season as a redshirt freshman starter at Tulane, but coaches absolutely coveted him when he hit the portal. The 6-3, 205-pound passer flashed elite arm talent and potential first-round upside in his debut season. The Blue Devils made him one of the highest-paid players in the sport and are betting Mensah can turn them into an ACC and CFP contender in 2025.

1. John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma: Mateer was one of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the country in his first season as a starter at Washington State, putting up 3,139 passing yards, 1,032 rushing yards (excluding sacks) and 44 total touchdowns. The fact he gets to keep playing with his offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle in Norman sets him up to be even better in 2025. He brings much-needed swagger to the Sooners’ offense and could quickly make Oklahoma a factor in the SEC title race. — Max Olson

10 potential first-round bye teams

10. Boise State: The Broncos could again represent the Group of 5 in the playoff as its highest-ranked conference champion. But they might not earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye like last year when they were seeded No. 3 ahead of the Big 12 and ACC champs, respectively.

9. LSU: Expectations are soaring for the Tigers, especially with the return of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, but are they ready to return to the top of the SEC? LSU doesn’t play Texas or Georgia during the regular season, so we might not know unless they make it to the conference championship game.

8. BYU: The Cougars can earn a top-four seed if they win the Big 12, which is again wide open. Last year’s Big 12 champion (Arizona State) was seeded No. 4 behind Boise State, but the Big 12 is getting the edge this preseason with Ashton Jeanty now in the NFL. The Cougars are ranked ahead of LSU here because their path to a conference title looks easier than LSU’s.

7. Miami: If the Hurricanes can win the ACC, they’ll earn a top-four seed as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. If they beat Notre Dame and Florida, though, en route to a conference title, they’ll make a case for one of the top seeds, depending on how those opponents ultimately fare.

6. Ohio State: The defending national champion is ranked this low only because it’s behind projected champs from other conferences. If Ohio State beats Texas at home in its season opener — and beats Penn State at home on Nov. 1 — the Buckeyes will be at the top of this list and in position for the committee’s No. 1 ranking and seed.

5. Georgia: The Bulldogs and Longhorns will settle this on Nov. 15, when the Longhorns visit Athens, and they could meet again in the SEC championship game, just as they did last season. Georgia won both games and earned a first-round bye as the SEC champion. It can certainly do it again.

4. Iowa State: The Cyclones would earn the fourth and final first-round bye in this projection as the Big 12 conference champion. In the current model, the four highest-ranked conference champions earn the top four seeds, which is why this ranking started this way.

3. Clemson: The Tigers are here as the projected ACC champion and the selection committee’s third-highest ranked conference champion, which would earn them the No. 3 seed.

2. Penn State: The Nittany Lions are ranked here as the projected Big Ten champion and selection committee’s second-highest ranked conference champion, which would earn them the No. 2 seed.

1. Texas: The Longhorns get the top spot here as the projected SEC champ and the selection committee’s highest-ranked conference champion, which would earn them the No. 1 seed. — Dinich

10 wild predictions for the season

10. Juice Kiffin scores for Ole Miss: OK, we need one wild prediction that’s so wild they’d have to make a movie about it — though this one could infringe on “Air Bud” copyrights. But if the tush push is legal for short-yardage dominance, it’s only reasonable to assume someone could hand the ball to a yellow lab in space for some explosive plays, too, right? Well, there’s no better combination of “dog with skills” and “coach willing to think outside the box” than Juice and Lane Kiffin, so why not throw us all a bone and give it a whirl? And honestly, it has been six years since something dog-related has completely upended the Egg Bowl. We’re overdue.

He’s lucky I’m on my leash https://t.co/n6XSwZcq5d

— Juice Kiffin (@JuiceKiffin) November 9, 2024

9. Kent State’s streak reaches 34: Things are bad at Kent State. After the 2022 season, Sean Lewis voluntarily left his head coaching job for a coordinator position at Colorado. His successor, Kenni Burns, proceeded to lose every game he coached vs. an FBS opponent. Burns was then put on leave and ultimately fired in April for multiple alleged violations of his contract. As it stands, the Golden Flashes have dropped 23 straight games vs. FBS opponents, with their lone win over the past two years coming against FCS Central Connecticut. Things aren’t likely to improve in 2025. Kent State’s schedule includes road games at Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma, plus MAC dates with four bowl teams from last year. They do get UMass, Akron, Ball State and Central Michigan — all chances for a rare W — but we’re not holding our breath. Our prediction: By the time 2025 is over, it will have been three years since the Golden Flashes celebrated an FBS win, and their trophy case will be getting awfully full from all those Bottom 10 championship trophies (which, we assume, is just the Civil Conflict trophy with duct tape over the name plate).

8. There’s a new power in Texas: The Big 12 looks to be up for grabs as Utah gets healthy, BYU stockpiles talent, Coach Prime goes into Year 3, and Iowa State and Arizona State look to build on exceptional 2024 seasons with returning stars at QB. But here’s a prediction that none of them are the conference’s champion when it’s all said and done. That honor goes to Texas Tech, which has been lurking for two years under Joey McGuire, and has added a wealth of star power this offseason. In the portal, it found Stanford’s David Bailey and Georgia Tech’s Romello Height to anchor the D-line, netted heft on the O-line with Howard Sampson, Hunter Zambrano and Will Jados, and added speed at receiver, tight end and corner. McGuire has top talent, depth and a manageable path to the playoff. Expectations are high in Lubbock, and we’re betting the Red Raiders live up to the hype.

7. Florida State wins 10 games: The roller-coaster ride in Tallahassee is enough to make any fan lose his lunch. In 2021, the team was dismal, still dealing with the ripple effects of Jimbo Fisher’s departure and Willy Taggart’s ill-fated hire. But by 2023, the Seminoles were on top of the world — winners of 19 straight games and holders of a 13-0 record. Then they were snubbed from the playoff, got routed by Georgia in the Orange Bowl, then went 2-10 in 2024 in what was, perhaps, the most incredible year-over-year decline in modern college football history. But what goes down must go up again, right? A simple regression to the mean on some key luck-based metrics should get FSU back to a bowl game, but if the defense takes a step forward under new coordinator Tony White and the offense is energized by Tommy Castellanos at QB, it’s not absurd to think the Noles regain much of the form they had in 2023, when they finished 10-3 and looked like a genuine contender by year’s end.

6. Riley saves his job: It has been a rough few years in L.A. for Lincoln Riley, who was once touted as the greatest offensive mind of his generation. USC is just 13-14 in its past 27 games vs. power conference competition, and last year’s unit finished sixth in scoring offense in its first year in the Big Ten. But has Riley actually lost his touch? Has the rest of the country figured him out? Is the Big Ten really so old-school that his offense can’t work amid the run-heavy tradition still upheld in places such as Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin? We’re not buying it. Riley knows what’s at stake this season, and with a manageable schedule — at Notre Dame and at Oregon being the biggest hurdles — here’s our official prediction that the Trojans turn things around and finish the regular season at 10-2 or better.

5. Ohio State loses to Michigan … again: The Buckeyes are national champions. Last year’s team was elite, and this year’s could be just as good. There’s no reason to be anything but joyous in Columbus. Only … the fine folks from that state up north do have something of a trump card. Michigan’s four straight wins over Ohio State make for some pretty good bragging rights, even if the playoff trophy resides at the Horseshoe. Last year’s astonishing Buckeyes loss might’ve cost Ryan Day his job had the playoff not expanded to 12 and given Ohio State a second bite at the apple. And so, when this year’s game comes around on Nov. 29, the buzz won’t be about Ohio State’s 2025 championship game win. It will be about the four straight losses, and that’s an awfully big monkey now living on Day’s back. So, we won’t be too shocked if that dark cloud looms so large that the Buckeyes stumble yet again thanks to all of the outside noise. Would the Ohio State faithful be OK with a fifth straight loss to Michigan if it was followed by a second straight national title?

4. Georgia misses the playoff: For the better part of three seasons, the Bulldogs seemed invincible. Only an injury-plagued one-score loss to Alabama in the 2023 SEC title game might have prevented Georgia from winning three straight national championships. And yet, by the end of 2024, it was clear some of the shine was off the once-dominant program. Carson Beck struggled without much help from his skill positions. The Dawgs lost to Alabama, were whooped by Ole Miss, and nearly fell to Georgia Tech before escaping in eight overtimes. By the time Penn State eased past Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, it was pretty clear Kirby Smart didn’t have a championship-level team. So, will 2025 be a return to greatness? It’s possible, but the SEC is stacked, and with games at Tennessee, home vs. Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and the rivalry showdown vs. Florida, there are ample opportunities to stumble. Is 8-4 possible? Would a 9-3 Georgia be a sure bet for the playoff? Could things get worse? When the standard is dominance, it’s hard to maintain the standard for long in today’s college football.

3. Belichick is one-and-done: It’s no secret Bill Belichick wanted an NFL job before landing at North Carolina. His buy-out with the Tar Heels also drops significantly next month. So a quick visit in Chapel Hill before heading back to the pros wouldn’t be a shocker (especially if he can set the stage for his son, Steve, to land the UNC head job afterward). But what if the scenario for his departure is less about moving up than falling down? The Heels are in the midst of a massive makeover in Year 1 under Belichick, who has never coached in college and is already dealing with his share of off-field spectacle. Is a 3-9 type of season possible? It certainly won’t be a good look if that’s where the Tar Heels land.

2. Manning doesn’t win the Heisman: The 1997 Heisman voting is part of college football lore, as Michigan’s Charles Woodson won the prize over the more heavily touted Tennessee QB Peyton Manning. Now 28 years later, Manning’s nephew, Arch, is set to lead Texas — and he probably has even more hype going into the season than Peyton or Eli ever did. We’re believers in Arch Madness, but predicting a playoff run for Texas doesn’t exactly count as a “wild” guess. Instead, how about a little history repeating itself? We’re predicting Arch Manning looks every bit as good as his famous uncle, and he enters December as the Heisman favorite. But when the award is announced, it’ll actually be a surprise winner instead. Who wins it? How about Oklahoma’s John Mateer? Or maybe Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith? Or perhaps Tennessee gets a little revenge and sends its own athletic defensive star to the podium, with Jermod McCoy winning the hardware.

1. Kelly goes ballistic: Brian Kelly has been head coach at LSU for three years. In 2022, he lost in Week 1 to Florida State. In 2023, he lost to the Noles in Week 1 again. In 2024, the Bayou Bengals flubbed away a game against USC and, once more, opened the year 0-1. Each time, Kelly was left … frustrated. (And none of this includes his famed postgame quote after a Week 1 overtime victory against Florida State in 2021 in which he joked about executing his players.) So, what happens if LSU starts 0-1 again this year? It’s entirely possible, as the Tigers draw Clemson in the opener. It’s not hard to envision a scenario in which a late Garrett Nussmeier fumble leads to a Clemson scoop-and-score and a 21-20 LSU loss after which Kelly turns into the red guy from “Inside Out” during his postgame news conference. — David Hale

10 CFP contenders from the Group of 5

10. UTSA: After a slow start in 2024, UTSA won four of five to end the season. Now Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners face an ambitious schedule with quarterback Owen McCown and most of his offensive line and receiving corps returning.

9. Army: After surging from 6-6 to 12-2, Jeff Monken’s Black Knights are rebuilding a bit. But they still have speedsters such as Noah Short in the backfield, and the defense has ranked in the SP+ top 40 for two straight years.

8. Louisiana: The Ragin’ Cajuns started last season 10-2 before a late collapse, and Michael Desormeaux aimed high by bringing in blue-chip transfers such as quarterback Walker Howard (Ole Miss) and wide receiver Shelton Sampson Jr. (LSU). The ceiling is high for the offense. The defense? We’ll see.

7. Liberty: Jamey Chadwell will field his most experienced defense, and while quarterback Kaidon Salter is off to Colorado, the Flames still have a proven offensive system and upside in the skill positions. They’ll host James Madison in Week 4 in a potential eliminator.

6. Memphis: Ryan Silverfield has lots to replace from a team that went 21-5 over the past two seasons, but the Tigers have massive upside at quarterback with either Nevada transfer Brendon Lewis or redshirt freshman Arrington Maiden, and a number of former blue-chippers arriving via the portal.

5. James Madison: After an up-and-down first season in charge, Bob Chesney returns a wonderfully experienced offense led by either incumbent quarterback Alonza Barnett III or UNLV transfer Matthew Sluka. The defense is taking on a rebuild, but Chesney did good work in the portal.

4. Navy: Quarterback Blake Horvath returns to pilot (naval reference!) another potentially excellent offense, and the defense is also pretty experienced. The major hurdle: a schedule that requires the Midshipmen to play their three toughest opponents (Notre Dame, Memphis, Army) away from home.

3. Tulane: The Green Wave have won 32 games over the past three seasons, and though head coach Jon Sumrall has quite a few players to replace from last season, he has done dynamite work in the portal. Few G5 teams have more upside in the trenches.

2. UNLV: Will it be a total collapse after losing head coach Barry Odom? Or will it be a major surge because of a load of blue-chippers? Almost anything is possible in Dan Mullen’s first season in charge in Las Vegas. A Week 2 visit from UCLA will tell us quite a bit.

1. Boise State: The reigning champions of the G5 return quarterback Maddux Madsen, ace pass rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan, tight end Matt Lauter and most of last season’s offensive line, and they’ll probably be underdogs only at Notre Dame in Week 6. — Connelly

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