NIL

What the last 5 years of the NFL Draft tells us about college football recruiting

Published

7 months ago

June 5, 2025

In many ways, the NFL Draft serves as the ultimate finish line in recruiting.

It provides a final tale of the tape in determining which programs delivered on their promise of helping these athletes fulfill their professional dreams.

NIL, the transfer portal and conference realignment have altered the state of college football quite a bit over the last few years. But recruits still typically prioritize getting to the NFL when making their decisions.

So, who has done the best job of that in recent years? We studied the last five years of the draft — all 1,294 picks and where those players came from — to try to figure it out.

Here is a collection of thoughts on various subjects.

Note: All recruiting rankings are from the 247Sports Composite.

Stars still matter

People love to criticize recruiting services, especially when players such as Cam Ward — an unranked prospect coming out of high school in south Texas — become the first pick in the NFL draft.

But the reality is that blue-chip recruits (four- and five-stars) still dominate the draft. Ward is the anomaly.

NFL Draft (2021-25) by recruiting stars

Round	Picks	5-star	4-star	3-star	2-star	Unranked
1st	160	26%	39%	29%	1%	4%
2nd	160	10%	41%	39%	3%	6%
3rd	194	7%	35%	38%	6%	14%
4th	181	6%	27%	43%	7%	18%
5th	197	6%	31%	46%	6%	12%
6th	210	4%	24%	47%	8%	17%
7th	192	2%	29%	43%	8%	19%

In the last five years, only seven players who were not ranked at all in the 247Sports Composite (4.3 percent) were among the 160 players taken in the first round of the draft. An overwhelming majority (80.1 percent) of the players drafted overall (not just in the first round) were ranked as three-stars or better.

On average, there are roughly 32 five-star recruits and somewhere between 300 to 400 four-stars among the thousands of high school prospects per cycle.

In the recent five-year draft window, 65 percent of the first-round picks (104 of 160) and 52 percent of the players taken in the first three rounds (267 of 514) were blue-chip recruits coming out of high school.

State supremacy

Texas, Florida, Georgia and California have long been considered the biggest hotbeds for football talent, and nothing has changed.

Those four states continue to be the biggest producers of NFL players, with Georgia (20) taking a small lead over Texas (19) for first-round selections.

Here’s a look at the top 10 NFL talent producers over the last five years by state, including how many of those total selections were blue-chip recruits.

Top talent-producing states

State	Picks	1st RD.	Blue-chip %
Texas	157	19	42%
Florida	139	16	40%
Georgia	120	20	47%
California	96	17	52%
Louisiana	53	7	49%
Ohio	49	2	39%
North Carolina	48	7	35%
Alabama	43	2	33%
Michigan	41	6	34%
Maryland	40	6	48%

Years in school

One outside factor you have to consider when looking at all data is how the COVID-19 pandemic affected recruiting and draft results. The NCAA granted an extra year of eligibility to all players who participated in the 2020 season.

That certainly didn’t stop the best players in college football from making a quick exit for the draft if they could. Nearly one in five draft picks over the last five years still made the jump to the pros after only three seasons in school.

Here’s a look at where players were drafted by the amount of time they spent in college.

NFL Draft picks by years in college

Years	Picks	1st rd.	Blue-chip %
3	249	91	87%
4	430	45	44%
5	469	22	55%
6	141	2	0%
7	5	0	0%

Big schools vs. small schools

Playing for a Power 4 program — there are currently 69 — still gives a player the best odds of getting drafted.

Just under 84 percent of the NFL Draft picks over the last five years played their last college game for a school that was in a Power 4 league (or Notre Dame) at the time.

The transfer portal has affected those numbers, with many of the Power 4 players drafted having started their careers at a lower level. In all, nearly a quarter of the players drafted over the last five years (26.4 percent) signed with a junior college, FCS, Division II or Group of 5 program out of high school.

Portal powering up

The reality, however, is that three-fourths of the players taken in the draft over the last five years played for only one college program.

That number, however, is decreasing as the number of transfers increases every year.

Of the 257 players selected in this year’s draft, 96 transferred at least once. That’s 37 percent. In 2021, only 10 percent of the draft picks (27 of the 259) were transfers.

Only two first-round picks in both 2021 and 2022 were transfers — quarterback Justin Fields and edge rusher Jaelen Phillips in 2021 and receiver Jameson Williams and guard Zion Johnson in 2022. That number jumped to five in 2023, peaked at nine in 2024 and dipped to seven this year.

Top schools

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the top 50 programs in terms of producing NFL Draft picks over the last five years reside in Power 4 conferences. It also shouldn’t come as a surprise that the four programs that won national titles over the last five years top that list.

NFL Draft picks by college

Picks ▼	1st Rd.	2nd-3rd Rd.	Transfers
55	14	17	6
44	16	15	8
42	8	15	5
40	11	12	5
36	6	9	7
33	7	10	6
33	6	9	6
30	6	7	14
27	2	11	3
25	5	4	7
23	2	7	13
22	5	5	0
22	2	6	8
22	4	6	10
21	2	6	6

The last five drafts include players from the 2015 through the 2022 recruiting cycles. Only one of the top 15 programs in terms of producing NFL talent over the last five years ranked outside of the top 25 when it came to average recruiting class rankings: South Carolina, which still ranked in the top 30.

What’s far more impressive from a development standpoint are the Power 4 programs that ranked outside of the top 40 in recruiting rankings yet produced NFL talent at a top-40 level.

The Pitt Panthers top the list among those schools with 20 draft picks over the last five years, including two first-rounders — second most in the ACC behind Clemson (22). Of those 20 picks, only three were transfers, and among the 17 homegrown talents, only one was a blue-chip recruit coming out of high school (safety Damar Hamlin).

Before he left for Wisconsin in November 2022, Luke Fickel did an equally impressive job stocking the shelves with NFL talent at Cincinnati — and did so before the program joined a Power 4 conference. The Bearcats have had 18 players drafted over the last five years. Four were transfers, including the only three blue-chippers to get drafted from Cincinnati. The rest were rated three-stars or lower, including top-five pick Sauce Gardner, who was the No. 1,605 prospect in the 2019 cycle.

Kansas State, Iowa State, Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota all ranked in the top 40 of NFL talent producers with 13 picks each despite ranking outside of the top 50 in the recruiting rankings.

These are the top non-Power 4 talent producers over the last five years. (Oregon State and Washington State are not on this list since they were both P4 programs during the recruiting cycles. Neither are BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF since they are now in a P4 league.)

Positional U

Schools love to claim they’re the best at producing talent by position.

We’ve gone ahead and done the homework to end the argument, at least for recent history.

Quarterback: Alabama, Florida and Ohio State all have the right to call themselves the best at producing pro talent at the moment, with three draft picks each at the position over the last five years. We’d give the slight edge to the Buckeyes, considering Fields and C.J. Stroud were first-rounders and Stroud is an entrenched NFL starter.

Running back: Michigan and Texas lead the way with five draft picks each over the last five years, with Alabama, Georgia and North Carolina not far behind with four each. You could make the argument that Pro Bowler Bijan Robinson gives Texas the edge with how he’s performed early in his pro career.

Receiver: Ohio State has produced five first-round picks at the position over the last five years, including top-10 picks in Marvin Harrison and Garrett Wilson. And Jeremiah Smith could be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft. But don’t forget about LSU. The Tigers have had six receivers taken in the last five years and have stars Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. doing damage in the league now.

Tight end: Nobody has produced more draft picks in the last five years at tight end than Penn State with four, and that includes 2025 first-rounder Tyler Warren. But it’s hard to ignore the impact of Georgia’s Brock Bowers, and the Bulldogs are one of a handful of programs (Miami, Michigan and Ohio State are the others) to have three tight ends drafted since 2021.

Offensive line: Georgia leads with 11 picks, but only two were first-rounders. Ohio State is next with nine, including three first-rounders. LSU and Michigan have produced eight, with Will Campbell representing the Tigers in Round 1. No O-linemen from Michigan, meanwhile, have been drafted in the first two rounds.

Defensive line: Georgia has had 11 defensive linemen drafted since 2021, including seven first-rounders. LSU, with 10, ranks second, but none of the Tigers have gone in the first round. Alabama, Michigan and Ohio State are next with nine picks each, with the Wolverines boasting five first-rounders — most notably Aidan Hutchinson.

Linebackers: Only nine players classified as linebackers have been taken in the first round in the last five years, and Penn State’s Micah Parsons is one of them. Georgia’s Quay Walker is another and is among the six from the Bulldogs. Clemson, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Washington and Penn State are next, each with four linebackers drafted.

Defensive backs: Why has Georgia been so good? Probably because it keeps producing the most NFL talent at every defensive position. The Bulldogs have had 13 defensive backs picked, including three first-rounders in Lewis Cline, Malaki Starks and Eric Stokes. Alabama is next with nine, followed by Penn State with eight.

Top recruiters

Recruiting sites do a fine job of highlighting the coaches who sign the most high-end prospects, but how much does this really tell us? You mean an assistant coach at Georgia is good at signing top talent? Shocking!

Here are a few recruiters who have done good work at some programs that don’t sign top-10 classes on a consistent basis — and we acknowledge that this can be a bit cloudy considering not every prospect has a clearly defined lead recruiter.

Fresno State head coach Matt Entz: The two-time FCS Coach of the Year had three players from his North Dakota State teams drafted in the last few years, including 2025 first-round pick Grey Zabel and second-rounders Dillon Radunz and Cody Mauch. All three players were either two-star or unranked recruits.

Idaho defensive coordinator Cort Dennison: The former Louisville and Oregon assistant did a fine job plucking quality three-star recruits out of the Southeast, including quarterback Jordan Travis, receiver Tutu Atwell and defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus. Five of his former three-stars were drafted over the last five years.

Kentucky tight ends coach Vince Marrow: The longtime assistant has been the lead recruiter for five Kentucky players who have been drafted in the last five years.

Washington defensive coordinator Ryan Walters: In his time at Missouri, Walters was the lead recruiter for six players who were eventually drafted. All of them were three-star recruits, and four ranked in the 1,000s.

West Virginia special teams coach Chris Haering: The former longtime Wisconsin assistant recruited six Badgers who were drafted, including Super Bowl-winning linebacker Leo Chenal.

(Photo of Bo Nix: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

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Arch Manning takes NIL pay cut to boost 2026 Texas Football roster

Published

7 hours ago

December 20, 2025

Your Sports Nation

There are plenty of examples of a star in pro sports taking less money in order to help the overall roster. But it isn’t something that’s hit college football yet … until now, thanks to Arch Manning. Manning has asked to take a reduced portion of the Longhorns’ direct payout pool.

Manning’s aim at taking less NIL funds is to help improve the roster around him. Just like Patrick Mahomes, who regularly gives up millions to help the Kansas City Chief’s roster. Tom Brady did it with New England. Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Jalen Brunson, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger have all helped the rosters around them by taking less.

In the pros, there are salary caps to negotiate. While college has no salary cap (yet), there is a finite amount in the NIL house pool. Texas can only spend what it has available. And while that pool is one of the biggest in the nation, Texas still follows a budget.

No doubt, Manning will be hoping the Texas coaching staff uses some of the freed up football revenue sharing funds on the offensive line. The line struggled in front of Manning all season and certainly inhibited his development early in the season.

Two offensive linemen are gone after the Citrus Bowl and Texas might lose a third. Left tackle Trevor Goosby was named first-team All-SEC is now contemplating going pro. Running back Jadan Baugh from Florida is also on Texas’ radar. The talented RB won’t be cheap.

Of course, it’s not like Manning will starve. The redshirt sophomore has one of the highest NIL valuations in nation. Manning has NIL deals with Red Bull, Panani, Uber and Warby Parker. Manning made north of $3.5 million in NIL deals in 2025, according to the Houston Chronicle.

With a big name that attracts major brands, Manning doesn’t need his big deals supplemented. But most college athletes are paid by the common pool of funds. Manning frees up some of that money for transfers.

This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Manning Pay Cut: Texas QB asks for less NIL money to help boost roster

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Top 5 transfer portal landing spots for TCU quarterback Josh Hoover

Published

8 hours ago

December 20, 2025

Your Sports Nation

The NCAA Transfer Portal claimed another big name on Thursday night.

TCU star quarterback Josh Hoover has announced he intends to move on from the program. Hoover spent the last four seasons with the Horned Frogs, taking over as the starter midway through the 2023 campaign and putting up big numbers in each of the last two years.

In 36 career games, Hoover has completed 771/1183 passes for 9,629 yards with 71 touchdowns to 33 interceptions. He added eight more scores on the ground. There’s a very real likelihood that Hoover’s the most productive quarterback returning to the sport in 2026.

Hoover ranks in the top 5 in TCU program history in touchdown passes and total offense. He’s expected to be a coveted option in the portal.

Where are five landing spots that make sense for Hoover?

Indiana Hoosiers

Back in the College Football Playoff with a different starter for the second consecutive season, Indiana has put together one of the most impressive runs in the sport since Curt Cignetti took over the program.

The undefeated Hoosiers produced their first Heisman Trophy winner in school history last weekend as star quarterback Fernando Mendoza ran away with the award. Mendoza has another season of eligibility remaining, but is projected to be a top selection in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Indiana has already been linked to Hoover, per CBS Sports’ Chris Hummer.

Miami Hurricanes

Miami has lived in the transfer portal over the past few years, investing plenty of time and money into building a contender for Mario Cristobal. The moves finally worked out in 2025 as a massive financial commitment to secure Carson Beck from Georgia helped power the Hurricanes to the playoffs.

Though the conclusion of the 2024 season was a disappointment, former Miami quarterback Cam Ward was developed into the No. 1 pick in the most recent NFL Draft. Beck will likely get a shot at the professional level as well.

With little proven depth on the roster, it makes sense to bring in another experienced quarterback like Hoover to keep the Hurricanes on the right track. Miami has proven it’s willing to pay up.

Oregon Ducks

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon is a known quarterback factory, sending former stars such as Marcus Mariota and Justin Herbert to the NFL. That hasn’t changed since Dan Lanning took over the program in 2022.

The Ducks have had a quarterback drafted in back-to-back years, with Bo Nix going in the first round in 2024 and Dillon Gabriel being selected within the top-100 picks in 2025. Lanning could do it again next April with Dante Moore, who is nearing the end of a career year.

If Moore does leap to the professional level, Hoover would be a solid fit. Nix, Gabriel, and Moore all began their college careers at different schools and later transferred to Oregon, a similar path Hoover is embarking on.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Suiting up for a playoff contender is pretty cool. Having a chance to win championships and staying home in the process might be even cooler.

Texas Tech has firmly entrenched itself as a program to reckon with in the modern age of the sport. The Red Raiders have plenty of money, and they’ve shown they’re willing to use it to pull in elite talent from the transfer portal and high school ranks.

With Behren Morton exhausting his eligibility following the playoff run, Texas Tech has to decide if it wants to turn the program over to another transfer or a homegrown talent like Will Hammond.

Either way, Hoover is from Texas and he’s already in the state.

Houston Cougars

An outlier among four other programs that have a chance to win it all, Houston is on the come-up. The Cougars haven’t been shy about writing checks, evidenced by the program signing five-star quarterback Keisean Henderson during the Early Signing Period.

Redshirt junior starter Conner Weigman does have one season of eligibility remaining and has stated he intends to return next season. Decisions are quick to change in this era, so never say never.

Would Houston bring in Hoover while Henderson develops for a season? Or should the program stick with Weigman as a veteran leader for Henderson?

Weigman just joined the program as a transfer last year. He was fine, but unspectacular this fall, and an upgrade could help the Cougars break their ceiling.

South Carolina Upstate visits Youngstown State after Carroll’s 31-point outing

Published

9 hours ago

December 20, 2025

Your Sports Nation

South Carolina Upstate Spartans (8-6) at Youngstown State Penguins (7-5, 2-1 Horizon League)

Youngstown, Ohio; Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

BOTTOM LINE: Youngstown State hosts South Carolina Upstate after Cris Carroll scored 31 points in Youngstown State’s 80-77 overtime loss to the Robert Morris Colonials.

The Penguins are 4-0 on their home court. Youngstown State scores 80.2 points and has outscored opponents by 10.9 points per game.

The Spartans are 2-5 on the road. South Carolina Upstate is fifth in the Big South scoring 79.6 points per game and is shooting 46.2%.

Youngstown State averages 10.4 made 3-pointers per game, 3.8 more made shots than the 6.6 per game South Carolina Upstate gives up. South Carolina Upstate has shot at a 46.2% rate from the field this season, 3.3 percentage points greater than the 42.9% shooting opponents of Youngstown State have averaged.

TOP PERFORMERS: Carroll averages 3.0 made 3-pointers per game for the Penguins, scoring 16.4 points while shooting 48.6% from beyond the arc. Rich Rolf is averaging 10.8 points over the last 10 games.

Mason Bendinger is scoring 16.1 points per game and averaging 3.1 rebounds for the Spartans. Carmelo Adkins is averaging 1.9 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games.

LAST 10 GAMES: Penguins: 6-4, averaging 81.3 points, 33.6 rebounds, 15.2 assists, 9.1 steals and 3.3 blocks per game while shooting 49.6% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 67.7 points per game.

Spartans: 5-5, averaging 75.4 points, 33.5 rebounds, 14.1 assists, 6.1 steals and 5.0 blocks per game while shooting 43.9% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 73.2 points.

___

The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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NIL

Arch Manning agrees to reduced NIL share to help Texas build roster

Published

9 hours ago

December 20, 2025

Your Sports Nation

In a college football world where NIL numbers keep climbing, Arch Manning is going the other way.

Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns reacts before the Texas Football Orange-White Spring Football Game

Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

The Texas quarterback has agreed to take a reduced share from the Longhorns’ revenue-sharing pool for the 2026 season, according to Justin Wells of Inside Texas. Manning was entitled to a full portion of the program’s revenue cap but opted to scale it back in an effort to give Texas more flexibility to strengthen its roster.

It is a move that stands out in the current landscape. It is also one Manning can afford to make.

Manning remains one of the most marketable players in college football and has a long list of endorsement deals that will continue to pay handsomely. Even with less money coming directly from the school, he is still expected to earn millions in 2026.

This is not the first time he has shown restraint, either. Manning has consistently been selective with his NIL opportunities since arriving in Austin.

The timing matters. The 2026 season is widely expected to be Manning’s last at Texas before he makes the jump to the NFL. From that perspective, the decision is straightforward. He wants the best possible team around him for one more run at a national championship.

Manning has already demonstrated his commitment to the program. He waited his turn behind Quinn Ewers for two seasons without entertaining a transfer and now is willing to sacrifice a portion of his compensation for the good of the roster.

On the field, the growth showed. After a shaky start in 2025, Manning finished with 2,942 passing yards and 24 touchdowns. Texas rebounded from a 3-2 opening to win six of its final seven games, punctuated by a decisive win over Texas A&M.

It is not a common move. It is a very Arch Manning one.

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Miami WR Malachi Toney inks NIL deal with Hellstar

Published

10 hours ago

December 20, 2025

Your Sports Nation

Ahead of the College Football Playoff opener, Malachi Toney added a notable NIL deal. The Miami wide receiver has inked a partnership with apparel company Hellstar.

Toney is Hellstar’s first NIL athlete, the Los Angeles-based brand said in an Instagram post. He became a crucial part of the Hurricanes’ offense during the regular season, helping lead the program to a College Football Playoff appearance as the last team in the field.

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It was part of a decorated freshman year for Toney, who’s emerging as one of the top young stars in the sport. Repped by NETWORK, he has a $878,000 On3 NIL Valuation.

“We are so proud to announce our first Hellstar Sports College Athlete NIL signing – Malachi Toney,” Hellstar wrote in its announcement. “We had the privilege to coach @malitoney10 while he was apart of our high school 7 on 7 program, so now seeing him shine on the collegiate level we couldn’t be more proud.

“We will continue to do our part to help these young athletes stay on the right path, and shine their light to the rest of the world. From Liberty City to the stars!”

It’s the latest notable NIL deal for Toney amid his freshman season. He also secured a partnership with Leaf Trading Cards in October.

More on Malachi Toney’s freshman season

Through his freshman year at Miami, Malachi Toney emerged as a top target for Carson Beck. He led the Hurricanes with 84 receptions for 970 yards, and his seven touchdown catches put him atop the ACC. Toney also added 89 rushing yards this year, as well as a rushing touchdown against Louisville.

Those numbers helped Toney become an On3 True Freshman All-American this year. In addition, he was a central figure in Miami’s run to the College Football Playoff.

“Toney’s quickness and playmaking instincts make him dangerous after the catch. He accounted for 350 yards after the catch with an average depth of target of 6.6, according to Pro Football Focus,” On3 | Rivals’ Charles Power wrote. “Whether working out of the slot or moving around the formation, the South Florida native has proven nearly impossible to contain. His playmaking ability was pivotal to Miami’s playoff push as he became the focal point of the Hurricanes’ passing attack.

“Given his play as a true freshman, it’s safe to say the Fort Lauderdale American Heritage product will enter next season as one of college football’s premier wide receivers. Toney’s performance as a true freshman is even more impressive considering that he should still be in high school, having reclassified into the 2025 cycle late in the recruiting process.”

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Arch Manning taking pay cut after first Texas season didn’t go as planned

Published

11 hours ago

December 20, 2025

Your Sports Nation

Arch Manning is taking a pay cut.

The Texas quarterback agreed to take a reduced share of the team’s revenue-sharing pool “as part of an effort to help the Longhorn football program do whatever it takes to support a 2026 championship run,” according to On3’s Justin Wells.

The savings “could be used on transfer portal talent or as part of retention efforts” for the Longhorns, per Wells.

This season, athletic programs were capped at $20.5 million in revenue-sharing, although that number is likely to increase next season and beyond.

AUSTIN, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 28: Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns looks on during the third quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 28, 2025 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images) — Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns looks on during the third quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 28, 2025 in Austin, Texas. Getty Images

Manning, the nephew of NFL icons Peyton and Eli Manning and the grandson of legendary quarterback Archie, is one of the most marketable athletes in college sports.

On3 currently gives Manning an NIL valuation of $5.3 million, which leads all student-athletes.

Although he is getting less money from Texas, Manning still holds NIL deals with brands like Red Bull, Uber and EA Sports, among others.

However, Manning sometimes struggled in a season that started with Heisman hype and the Longhorns ranked No. 1 in the nation.

Texas finished the season 9-3 and out of the College Football Playoff, a disappointing midseason loss against a poor Florida team all but ended their chances of being in the 12-team field.

Manning’s season was underwhelming as well, throwing for 2,942 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

The news comes after Manning’s father, Cooper Manning, told ESPN earlier this week that his son would return to the Longhorns in 2026 for his junior season despite previously mulling entering the 2026 NFL Draft.

“Arch is playing football at Texas next year,” Cooper said.

Texas finished No. 13 in the end of season rankings and will be on the sidelines for the College Football Playoff, which kicks off on Friday.

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