CHICAGO – When a minor league prospect is succeeding and the big league player at his position is struggling, it can be easy to jump to conclusions.

Swap them out, some may say. But it’s not quite that simple.

The White Sox are in that position to a certain degree as Triple-A Charlotte Knights first baseman leads all minor leaguers with nine home runs. The 26-year-old also leads qualified Triple-A hitters in slugging percentage (.732), OPS (1.163), isolated power (.378) and wRC+ (197) through 95 plate appearances.

“He’s hitting the ball very hard, actually harder than – he’s always hit the ball hard, he’s actually increased how hard he’s hitting it,” White Sox general manager Chris Getz said before Tuesday’s game.

“And most importantly, how often he’s doing it. He’s certainly leading the organization in home runs, and I think he’s at the top in minor league baseball. Tim’s a special guy, has got tremendous leadership qualities. He impacts others beyond just himself. He was a pretty good defender at first base. He’s putting together all-around quality at-bats. So, we’re really happy with the development of Tim, and know at some point he could join us here in Chicago.”

Meanwhile, White Sox first baseman Andrew Vaughn is off to an unproductive start in his fifth MLB season. He’s slashing .157/.202/.275/.476 with three home runs, 11 RBI, six walks and 23 strikeouts in 109 plate appearances.

So, is Elko a threat to take away at-bats from Vaughn, if his struggles continue?

“We’re more focused on supporting Andrew right now,” Getz answered. “He’s been one of the more unlucky hitters in baseball. I know he wants greater results for the White Sox and for himself, and we expect more out of him. I know he’s working very hard. And our job is to get the most out of each player and we know that there’s more on the tank for Andrew. But we also know there are players throughout the organization that at some point could step up and get that opportunity. And you want to make sure that they’re well-positioned to do so.”

By unlucky, Getz is referring to how Vaughn’s expected stats compare to his aforementioned underwhelming numbers. Vaughn ranks between the 75th and 89th percentile among all MLB hitters in expected slugging percentage (.485), average exit velocity (91.6), barrel percentage (16.3), hard-hit percentage (51.2) and squared-up percentage (31.2).

Put simply, he’s hitting the ball hard, but it’s going directly to defenders. Even his expected batting average – .243, good for the 40th percentile – was 86 points higher than his actual batting average entering Tuesday’s game.

Determining whether expected stats will equate to actual results is something every team considers. Sometimes it’s flipped, where a player may have poor expected stats, but they have a knack for finding gaps, get lucky with soft contact falling for hits or receive fortunate ball-or-strike calls. Sometimes it’s a guessing game.

When it comes to Vaughn, Getz views some of it as bad luck, but he’s also noticed things the 27-year-old needs to fix.

“There’s some areas in which mechanically, the adjustments that need to be made. But the results that he’s gotten at the surface level, we know that it’s a little deceptive,” Getz said. “And so we certainly want him to stay the course and stay hungry, which we know that he will. But we also know that there is some work that needs to be done in terms of improvement. Every stat tells a story. There’s context to every single one, but we know that Andrew’s going to fight, and we know that he’s going to be more productive here and hopefully in the near future.”

The White Sox entered the season with the No. 6 farm system, per MLB.com, and there can be a desire from fans to see those emerging players be called up, especially with the big league club isn’t successful.

But it’s a long season, and Getz explained what goes into determining the right time to make those moves.

“Primarily we’re focused on players in our system that we feel like are going to be part of our future and really their development is the priority. If that means we bring them up, then so be it,” Getz said. “Now we do have players that are on our major league team that have been productive at the major league level and help support this team as we navigate this season. Most importantly we want to put players in the best position to come up here and succeed. Obviously there does need to be opportunity and we’ll wait for the right time to do it. There are different variables that go into making that decision but most importantly it’s if they’re developmentally ready to come up here.”

The White Sox entered Tuesday’s game with a 7-21 record, worst in the American League and 29th in MLB ahead of the 4-24 Colorado Rockies. That’s in line with what this team was expected to do going into the year as its win total over/under was set at 54.5, lowest in MLB.

Getz understands the sentiment from fans that comes with losing, but he also knows turning the team around won’t happen immediately.

“We know that they’re frustrated and they’re hungry for us to stack more wins in the win column. But we need to be disciplined in our process,” Getz said. “We need to develop these guys at an appropriate rate. We can’t just put everyone on the major league club and expect us to get the most out of that group. We certainly understand the frustration. We’re working daily on trying to find ways to improve players and improve this team. We wish that it was an overnight project. It’s not. There’s a lot of good things going on in this organization and we have faith that better days are ahead.”