With less than a week until the trade deadline, the Red Sox are looking for ways to upgrade, which means they’re likely to move prospects in an effort to improve the big league team for 2025. But whom?
While the exact players are hard to predict, recent history offers something of a guide. In nearly 21 months on the job, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has made a wide variety of deals — whether the blockbuster acquisition of Garrett Crochet, prospect-for-prospect swaps to balance the depth of the system (Nick Yorke for Quinn Priester last trade deadline), moves to deal from perceived depth for future value (Priester for prospects and a draft pick this April), rental upgrades, and more. From those deals, it’s possible to identify categories of trade candidates from the Sox system.
A couple of caveats: First, this exercise is focused on players in the minors rather than big leaguers such as Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, who would be deployed only in different sorts of deals. Second, some players fall within multiple categories, something that can increase the likelihood that they might be dealt.
The untouchables
Past examples: Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer
Current examples: OF Roman Anthony, INF Marcelo Mayer
When the White Sox asked about Anthony and Mayer last year at the deadline in talks about Crochet, it was a conversation-stopper. It was only when the teams started working from a different list of players that they were able to find common ground at the Winter Meetings.
Anthony is off limits, and Mayer is close enough for rounding purposes.
Blockbuster centerpieces
Past examples: Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery
Current examples: UTIL Kristian Campbell, SS Franklin Arias, LHP Payton Tolle
These are prospects who could be significant contributors — and likely would not get dealt unless the Sox could get an All-Star-caliber player with multiple years of team control in return. While there’s a very low likelihood the Sox would deal Campbell — particularly given his long-term contract (a case can be made that he’s more valuable because of that contract than he was in the offseason, when he was off limits) — he might now be in more of a never-say-never position than Anthony or Mayer.
Why? There’s an additional measure of uncertainty about Campbell’s future position (first base? second base? outfield? super utility?). Still, as a player who is just two years into his pro career and who ranked among the best prospects in baseball a year ago, any deal involving Campbell is longer than a long shot.
Arias represents a solid bet to emerge as an everyday shortstop with strong defense and the ability to hit for average, with some questions about his on-base skills and power. But he’s a tier below Anthony and Mayer as a prospect, and as the Sox demonstrated in dealing Teel and Montgomery, they’re willing to trade such players if they can get a difference-making big leaguer. The same is true of Tolle, whose considerable improvement in his first full pro season suggests mid-rotation potential.
Upper-levels prospects who are behind others on the depth chart
Past examples: Chase Meidroth, Nick Yorke
Current examples: OF Jhostynxon Garcia, 1B/OF James Tibbs, IF Mikey Romero
Garcia could be an everyday outfielder in the big leagues, but with the Sox — who have Anthony, Abreu, Duran, and Ceddanne Rafaela — his likeliest role would be as a fourth outfielder who succeeds Rob Refsnyder. Tibbs likewise could be blocked by the Sox’ other lefthanded-hitting outfielders. Romero —currently bouncing between second, third, and shortstop — is behind Mayer and Arias on the long-term depth chart. All have potential future value, but none is a cornerstone prospect. Such players can get moved as the headliner in deals for rentals (in Garcia’s case, it would have to be for one of the best rental players on the market) or as second or third pieces in bigger moves for players with more control.
Upper-levels arms
Past examples: Quinn Priester, Wikelman Gonzalez
Current examples: RHP David Sandlin, LHP Connelly Early
For the first time in years, the Sox have upper-level pitching depth and will need to pick and choose whom they keep and develop and those they trade. Tolle likely falls into the former camp. Sandlin, a hard thrower with a vast array of secondary pitch shapes, and Early, who has back-of-the-rotation stuff, are on the fence between those two positions. Had the Sox made a push for Josh Naylor, for instance, Sandlin and/or Early might have had comparable prospect value with the two pitchers the Mariners traded to the Diamondbacks.
As the trade of Priester to the Brewers in April highlights, there’s risk in trading from this pool of players, but deal-making is not a risk-free proposition, and the Sox can continue to make deals involving such players if they’re confident in their pitching pipeline.
High-ceiling lottery ticket
Past example: Ovis Portes
Current examples: LHP Brandon Clarke, RHP Juan Valera
Portes stood out last year as one of the more interesting Sox pitching prospects in the Florida Complex League, showing a burst of high-octane stuff that moved him from a relative unknown. The Sox were able to deal him straight up for Lucas Sims, a rental reliever.
Clarke and Valera have shown dominance in the lower minors, but in a very small sample. Both have considerably more prospect value than Portes did a year ago, and yet there remains uncertainty about whether either will be able to develop into more than a reliever, albeit with back-end potential.
The 40-man roster bottleneck
Past examples: 2B Nick Yorke, UTIL Matthew Lugo, 1B Niko Kavadas, RHP Ryan Zeferjahn, INF Eddinson Paulino
Current examples: RHP David Sandlin, 1B/3B Blaze Jordan, OF Miguel Bleis, OF Allan Castro, LHP Shane Drohan, LHP Hayden Mullins
The Sox have a number of players who could get nabbed in the Rule 5 draft if they’re not added to the 40-man roster this offseason. Many are behind other options on the depth chart or wouldn’t represent near-term depth in 2026. In those instances, the Sox might look to deal those players in order to address short- or long-term needs.
Last year, the Sox did both, dealing Yorke for Priester, and then packaging Lugo, Kavadas, and Zeferjahn (along with a teenage, lottery-ticket arm, Yeferson Vargas) for reliever Luis García. The García trade was a bust, as the righthander struggled with the Sox and Zeferjahn had a strong big league cameo in 2024, but given the lack of defined roles for those players, the idea of getting something for them rather than seeing them depart represents a reasonable construct that the Sox likely will be willing to explore again.
Sandlin is a slam dunk to be protected this offseason, so he might not fit as well into this group. But Bleis — a top-five prospect in the system a couple years ago, but who struggled with injuries and a free-swinging approach — represents a fascinating case of a player with a high-ceiling but little to no path to the big leagues in 2026.
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him @alexspeier.
