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2026 college football national title odds: Texas enters season as favorite, but field appears wide open

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Five of the six national champions from the 2018-23 seasons went undefeated, marking an era filled with dominant teams. Last year’s debut of the 12-team College Football Playoff featured a two-loss Ohio State team as national champion, which could signal that being a dominant champion is now more difficult.

The volume and ease of transfers, NIL spending and a playoff format that is more forgiving of regular-season blemishes appear to have balanced the playing field just enough compared to the recent juggernauts of 2019 LSU and 2020 Alabama. That balance is playing out in the betting odds to win the national title this season.

Texas is favored on BetMGM with +450 odds. The Longhorns are No. 1 in both major preseason polls, so their position at the top of the odds board lines up, but those odds do not display much confidence in Texas as the favorite. The +450 odds imply the Longhorns have roughly an 18 percent chance of winning the national title. That’s the betting way of saying this appears to be a wide-open season.

Seven teams have odds of +1000 (1o-to-1) or shorter. That means the gap between Texas at the top and Alabama in the seventh spot on the odds board is relatively small.

Beyond the fact that 12 teams get into the Playoff, lowering the bar to get into the postseason and giving more teams (like Ohio State last year) a chance to win it all, a lot of top programs enter this season with major question marks, especially at quarterback. Texas is getting some love for having Arch Manning, but his recruiting profile and famous last name are still carrying a lot of weight for a quarterback with only 95 pass attempts at the college level, and barely half of those came against power conference opponents. Manning is also the preseason favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t some level of uncertainty about how he will perform.

Other premier programs like Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia and Notre Dame are also going with first-year starters at quarterback. Despite that, those teams are all in the top eight of the preseason AP Top 25.

Inexperience at quarterback isn’t necessarily a detriment to winning a national title. In recent years, Mac Jones (2020 Alabama), Trevor Lawrence (2018 Clemson), Jake Coker (2015 Alabama), J.T. Barrett/Cardale Jones (2014 Ohio State), Jameis Winston (2013 Florida State), A.J. McCarron (2011 Alabama) and Cam Newton (2010 Auburn) were first-year Division I starters to win national titles (and you can include Tua Tagovailoa on that list, even though he didn’t start most of the season). Teams can win it all with a first-year starter, but having a lot of top programs with new faces at quarterback does make the season harder to project. That’s why the betting odds are relatively balanced among the top contenders.

Defending champion Ohio State just named Julian Sayin, a redshirt freshman and a five-star recruit out of high school, its starter for the season opener against Texas. Headline writers who like puns will be thrilled to be able to play around with QBs named Arch and Sayin, but that game should have an early impact on national title odds with the Buckeyes just below Texas at +525.

Georgia and Penn State follow OSU at +700. The Nittany Lions made the semifinals last year and return quarterback Drew Allar, while Georgia will break in Gunner Stockton. Next up are Oregon and Clemson at +900. Clemson is more in the Penn State category with Cade Klubnik back at quarterback. Oregon has UCLA transfer Dante Moore stepping in after he backed up Dillon Gabriel last season.

Alabama also has a relative unknown at quarterback in Ty Simpson, who was named the starter a week ago. Simpson will be tasked with getting Alabama back into national title contention after the Crimson Tide missed the 12-team playoff last season.

Last year’s championship game loser Notre Dame is +1200. The Fighting Irish haven’t even named a starting QB yet, but remain in the top 10 of both the preseason polls and in the betting odds. The Irish are a bit lower in the betting odds than the polls. ND is fifth in the Coaches’ Poll and sixth in the AP Top 25, but only eighth on BetMGM’s odds board to win the national title.

LSU is the last team before a solid dropoff in the odds. The Tigers are +1400 with returning quarterback Garrett Nussmeier guiding the optimism around Brian Kelly’s team.

Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Quintrevion Wisner: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)



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Ohio State quarterback Lincoln Kienholz commits to Louisville out of NCAA transfer portal

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Ohio State quarterback Lincoln Kienholz is committing to Louisville out of the NCAA transfer portal, On3’s Hayes Fawcett has learned. He does so after spending three years with the Buckeyes.

Kienholz competed for the starting quarterback job heading into the 2025 season. He ultimately lost the gig to Alabama transfer Julian Sayin, who piloted the Buckeyes to a College Football Playoff berth.

The third-year player finished the 2025 season 10-of-14 passing for 139 yards and a score, while avoiding any interceptions. He also ran 11 times for 66 yards and two scores.

In three years at Ohio State, Lincoln Kienholz threw for 250 yards and a touchdown. He ran for 68 yards and two more scores. He has a career completion percentage of 58.3%, though it should be noted he was at 78.6% during the 2025 season.

Prior to enrolling at Ohio State, Lincoln Kienholz was ranked as a four-star prospect and the No. 205 overall recruit in his class, according to the Rivals Industry Ranking. He was also ranked as the No. 15 quarterback in his class and the No. 1 overall player in the state of South Dakota, hailing from Pierre (SD) T.F. Riggs.

Kienholz was decorated as a high school athlete. He was a multi-sport star.

In baseball, he batted .472 with six home runs, while also going 3-0 with a 1.24 ERA as a pitcher, according to his Ohio State biography. He also averaged 19.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game on the hardwood as a junior.

On the football field, Lincoln Kienholz was superb in high school. He helped lead his team to three consecutive state championships, throwing for 3,422 yards and 46 touchdowns as a senior, while also rushing for 1,435 yards and 24 scores.

Louisville coach Jeff Brohm was clearly looking for a player with some upside, and he’s likely found it in Kienholz. It’ll be interesting to see what Kienholz can do with the opportunity in a new spot.



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Cal linebacker Cade Uluave plans to enter NCAA transfer portal

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According to On3’s Hayes Fawcett, Cal Golden Bears linebacker Cade Uluave plans to enter the NCAA transfer portal. Uluave was one of the best players in college football this past season after being a tackling machine during the 2025 season. Now, the plan is to hit the open market and see what is out there moving forward.

Uluave played in 12 games this past season, recording exactly 100 tackles. Of those, 42 were solos, and the remaining 58 were assisted. No matter how you spin it, Uluave usually finds himself around the football and bringing people to the ground.

Elsewhere, 12 tackles for a loss and three sacks also pop up on the stat sheet. Uluave also recorded five quarterback hurries and five pass breakups when dropping into coverage. No interceptions came during the 2025 season but Uluave does have three throughout his career.

“Invaluable,” former Cal head coach Justin Wilcox said of Uluave preseason. “I mean, when you have a guy who’s got the character traits that Cade has, I mean, he is a solid guy. He’s the real deal human being. And then, I mean, that guy’s a baller. He is a baller. I’ve been around a little while now and seen defensive football players.

“He’s had a couple things that kept him out of games last year with some injuries. But when he’s healthy, like, I don’t know that there’s a lot of guys better than him as a defensive football player. He’s incredibly explosive. He’s got great instincts and he’s a great human being. So, yeah, I’m a big believer in Cade.”

In the end, Uluave is another example of Wilcox developing a quality defensive player. Uluave was just a three-star recruit coming out of Herriman (UT) Mountain Ridge. He finished as the No. 926 overall recruit in the 2023 cycle, according to the Rivals Industry Ranking, a weighted average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies.

Cal’s official roster bio for Uluave listed him as a junior during the 2025 season. Wilcox continually used Uluave throughout his tenure in Berkley, meaning no redshirt was ever taken. One year of eligibility is expected to remain at whatever school the linebacker ends up at.

You have to imagine plenty of schools are going to be interested. Uluave might wind up having multiple options at his disposal, while new Cal head coach Tosh Lupoi will work hard to bring him back.



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ESPN analyst mocks SEC for rev-share failures, spares UGA, A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Bama

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Most of the SEC didn’t get their return on rev-share investments over the past two seasons. “Pay-to-play” has been a boon for the Big Ten, which has won the last two College Football Playoff titles and has two teams remaining in this year’s field.

For the “It Just Means More” conference, though, it has evened the playing field in a way the SEC’s elite isn’t keeping up with.

ESPN LA’s Su’a Cravens, who played for the USC Trojans, owners of the No. 1 recruiting class in 2026, celebrated the sport’s massive changes and rubbed it in the SEC’s faces. Cravens did claim that five SEC schools would be able to compete “year in and year out,” though:

The Georgia Bulldogs, Texas A&M Aggies, LSU Tigers, Ole Miss Rebels, and Alabama Crimson Tide.

Cravens blamed it on NIL payments, which are a component of roster-building, but are not direct payments from schools; instead, they come from a third party.

“I absolutely love the correlation between NIL and the immediate parity in CFB! It’s hilarious to see the very theory we all knew was true come to fruition. The moment everybody could pay to play, the SEC’s dominance evaporated. And that doesn’t mean the SEC won’t have good teams, I never said that. I expect UGA, A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, and Bama to be able to compete year in and year out. But being able to compete vs juggernaut dynasties are a VAST DIFFERENCE to what the SEC is accustomed too… It’s almost like once the monopoly vanished, so did the chokehold on college football! I LOVE IT!! Justice has been served,” Cravens said.

Ole Miss, Alabama not guaranteed to be relevant in rev-share/NIL era

Truth be told, Ole Miss and Alabama’s inclusion here may be faulty. Those two programs are not flush with the kind of super-donor alums that the B1G has, and lacks the oil money that Texas A&M and the Texas Longhorns have.

Speaking of which, where is Texas on Cravens’ radar? If there’ a school that could compete when big money is being thrown around, it’s the Longhorns.

In the ever-competitive SEC, teams will shuffle in and out of relevance. Kirby Smart is likely to keep the Dawgs in the hunt, while Lane Kiffin will surely keep program-building his way deep into the CFP.

Other than those two, there are no guarantees for teams in that conference to be competitive year in and year out.

Which may have been the point of rev-share and NIL all along.



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Carius Curne accuses LSU of holding his paperwork, preventing transfer portal entry

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Back in December, LSU offensive lineman Carius Curne revealed his intentions to enter the NCAA Transfer Portal when it opened. However, he hasn’t been able to yet, and he’s blaming the Tigers for that.

In a social media post on X (formerly Twitter), Curne accused LSU of holding his paperwork, preventing his entry into the portal: “Holding my paper work trying to prevent me from opportunity is crazy work (two lagging face emojis),” Curne posted on X. ” I just want to ball out (two laughing face emojis).”

It’s certainly a large accusation from Curne. This past season the offensive lineman played in seven games as a true freshman for the Tigers. He started in five of them, earning starts at both right and left tackle.

Despite the fact that he was one of the more productive players for the Tigers in the trenches, Curne was limited to seven games in part due to injury. He made only one appearance during the month of October.

The lineman was hurt during LSU’s loss to Texas A&M on Oct. 25, suffering a leg injury during the fourth quarter. That came after he went a month without appearing in a game. He was later able to return against Alabama on Nov. 8.

What is clear, though, is that Carius Curne will be a highly sought-after player in the transfer portal, when he’s officially entered into college football’s version of free agency. SEC experience at offensive tackle does not come cheaply.

Prior to enrolling at LSU, Carius Curne was rated as a four-star prospect and the No. 49 overall player in the nation in the 2025 class. He checked in as the No. 2 interior offensive lineman and the top overall player from the state of Arkansas, hailing from Marion (AR) Marion.

To keep up with the latest players on the move, check out On3’s Transfer Portal wire. The On3 Transfer Portal Instagram account and Twitter account are excellent resources to stay up to date with the latest moves.

The 2025-26 college football transfer portal will last 15 days, spanning from Jan. 2 to Jan. 16, the NCAA decided. While players have just over two weeks  to enter the portal, they’re not under a deadline to commit when they enter. Traditionally, the cut-off for committing has been how late a school can enroll a player through admissions, so it varies throughout the sport.

On3’s Thomas Goldkamp contributed to this article..





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Gophers can’t spin Koi Perich’s decision to enter portal – Twin Cities

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Koi Perich has thrown his hat into the NCAA transfer portal and there’s no way to spin this as a positive for the University of Minnesota’s football program.

Or college football.

John ShipleyEven if he wasn’t the Gophers’ best safety this season — that was Kerry Brown — and coach P.J. Fleck can use the money the U was paying Perich on more than one transfer who can help next season, the fact is, the best in-state prospect to buy into P.J. Fleck’s row-the-boat paradigm has taken a long look and decided he’s more interested in the big-time NIL paradigm.

Whether it’s more money, more national exposure or a more likely path to the NFL — debatable — Perich has decided it won’t happen at Minnesota.

As a college football fan, one has to wonder if watching most of your school’s best players go look for the bigger, better thing after every season is palatable. And as a Gophers’ fan, one has to accept that this just doesn’t bode well for the program’s viability as, for all intents and purposes, a small-market professional football franchise.

One could look at what Indiana has done the past two seasons and see a crack under the fence just big enough for those without a ticket to crawl through. We know that, for now, it’s possible for an also-ran Power Four program to genuinely contend for a national championship. But Minnesota appears to be moving the other way at an inopportune time.

The Gophers went 8-5 after beating New Mexico in the Rate Bowl in Phoenix. The Lobos were one of two bowl teams they beat this season, and Minnesota was 0-3 against the best Big Ten teams they played — Ohio State, Iowa and Oregon — and was outscored 123-19.

With talented young quarterback Drake Lindsey under center and what they believed would be a prolific running game — it wasn’t — the Gophers had their eyes on another move up the conference ladder. Instead, it was a typically OK season.

P.J. Fleck and his team run onto the field.
Minnesota Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck leads his team onto the field at the start of an NCAA football game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Friday, Oct. 17, 2025. (John Autey / Pioneer Press)

It’s probably not lost on longtime Gophers fans that Indiana started the season as the only other OG Big Ten school with a Rose Bowl drought (1968) nearly as long as Minnesota’s (1962). And the Hoosiers just humiliated Alabama in Pasadena on New Year’s Day to advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.

This space has been used, fairly recently, to praise the job that Fleck has done in his nine seasons in Dinkytown. A large reason for that is the way he cleaned up an ugly culture fomented by former coach Jerry Kill that later exploded into ugly, and very public, behavior under replacement Tracy Claeys.

What was once a national embarrassment for the Gophers has changed for the better under Fleck. Against most odds, his dedication to teaching his players how to meditate and where to place the salad fork has, in fact, resulted in a program that Minnesota can be proud of off and, largely, on the field.

When, for instance, they were short of the six wins required to earn a berth in one of 41 bowl games in 2023, they became eligible because they had the best graduation rate of available teams. That matters, or used to, anyway.

Further, Fleck’s teams are 7-0 in bowl games, including a victory over a then-Top 10 Auburn team in the 2019 Outback Bowl that pushed them to a program-record 11 wins and No. 10 in the final Associated Press poll. The Gophers also have been sending more players to the NFL, a recruiting point that could help build the talent coffers.

Landing Perich, a four-star recruit from Esko who turned down 2025 national champion Ohio State to stay home, was another positive step. Losing him, as seems inevitable, is two steps back, because whatever the safety and kick returner’s goals are, he’s convinced they will be easier to meet elsewhere.

Even Darius Taylor, a talented but oft-injured tailback, who will no doubt be the Gophers’ starter next season, waited until the last moment — at least publicly — to renew his vows with Minnesota.

Fleck did something smart when this season ended, when he publicly revealed that he was allowing Lindsey to help him target receivers in the next recruiting class. In the absence of the big, big money, giving a promising QB like Lindsey that kind of ownership is the next best thing to the bigger, better thing.

But isn’t it exhausting? Not just for Fleck, or athletics director Mark Coyle, but everyone with an emotional stake in the Gophers’ success.

Fleck has been conspicuously tied to just about every coaching opening that appears to be a step up from Minnesota. If any of that was real, and those offers come again, he might want to finally take one with more money in the slush fund.



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North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker transfers to Oklahoma State in big portal splash

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Oklahoma State just got itself a boost at the quarterback position.

Drew Mestemaker, who led all of FBS college football in passing yards with North Texas this season, will be transferring to Oklahoma State next season, according to multiple reports.

According to On3, Mestemaker also has a “two-year deal” worth $7 million attached to his commitment to Oklahoma State, which is seemingly connected to an NIL contract.


North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) looks to throw during the American Conference championship.
North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) looks to throw against Tulane during the first half of the American Conference championship NCAA college football game in New Orleans, Friday, Dec. 5, 2025. AP

Mestemaker, who just completed his freshman season with the Mean Green, will be joining former North Texas coach Eric Morris, who signed a five-year deal with Oklahoma State to replace Mike Gundy in December.

“I think just the relationships that I’ve built there with Coach Morris, Coach [Sean] Brophy and that whole staff, offense and defense,” Mestemaker said to ESPN. “I think Coach Morris is the best play-caller in the nation. The insight he has, and the way he sees offense, and the way he makes me at quarterback comfortable in everything we are running.

“I feel like sets me up for success in everything that he calls.”

Mestemaker led the FBS by throwing for 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns while completing 68.9 percent of his passes, helping lead North Texas to a 12-2 record and a bowl win over San Diego State.


North Texas Mean Green head coach Eric Morris talks to an official during the 2025 American Conference Football Championship against the Tulane Green Wave.
Head coach Eric Morris of the North Texas Mean Green talks to an official during the 2025 American Conference Football Championship against the Tulane Green Wave at Yulman Stadium on December 5, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Getty Images

The 20-year-old chose to remain loyal to Morris, saying that he is excited to continue playing under him in Stillwater.

“To be the starting point of it all, and the one that’s locked in first, I hope getting that out there will help more name [players] realize how special this staff really is,” Mestemaker added. “If I didn’t 100 percent trust these guys with my career, I’d take longer to see what’s out there and test out the waters.”

The move comes following another underwhelming season for the Cowboys, who finished with a 1-11 record, failing to land a win in the Big 12.

Mestemaker acknowledged that there is a lot of work to do in Stillwater for a potential turnaround.

“I know Coach Morris knows there’s work to do,” he said. “But he’s never shied from that. We knew last year, there was work to do. People thought we’d be struggling to make a bowl game again.

“I know this staff on offense and defense never shied away from a challenge.”



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