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There's hope! Ten SEC teams' percent chance to chase College Football Playoff

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There's hope! Ten SEC teams' percent chance to chase College Football Playoff


The stat nerd has spoken.ESPN’s Bill Connelly sets the industry standard for analytical preview content. His latest batch of metrics includes a look at SEC teams’ percentage chance of finishing the regular season 10-2 or better.

Why 10-2? Well, because of the theory that any SEC team that finishes 10-2 or better is a strong candidate to make the 12-team playoff.

A 9-3 record would give some SEC teams a chance at playoff qualification, but 10-2 is a golden ticket.

Connelly’s latest formula gives 10 SEC teams a 5% chance or better of finishing at least 10-2.

Strictly speaking, these percentages do not represent the chance that a team will make the playoff — only its chance of finishing 10-2 or better.

With that in mind, let’s review the percentage chance of SEC teams to finish 10-2 or better:

My take: Per Connelly’s metric, Alabama has the best chance of any SEC team to go 10-2 or better. My gut, which isn’t beholden to analytics, disagrees. The Crimson Tide’s schedule includes road games at Georgia and Auburn. My bigger reason to dial down this percentage, though, is the unproven starting quarterback.

Texas (61%)

My take: With a loaded roster led by quarterback Arch Manning, I’d be tempted to make Texas my preseason No. 1 team. Nevertheless, this percentage seems spot-on. A schedule that includes road land mines at Ohio State, Georgia and Florida creates the possibility of Texas losing three or more games.

Georgia (61%)

My take: This percentage seems a touch high. Why? Like Alabama, I’m not sold on Georgia’s quarterback situation. Gunner Stockton looked the part of sufficient backup last season. Is he ready for a star turn? I’m unconvinced. The Bulldogs enjoy the benefit of playing at home against their toughest opponents: Texas, Alabama and Mississippi.

[ This column first published in our SEC Unfiltered newsletter, emailed free to your inbox five days a week. Want more commentary like this? Sign up here for our newsletter on SEC sports. It’s free. ]

My take: Count Ole Miss among my playoff sleepers. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels received oodles of playoff hype last summer and came up a victory short. In an overcorrection, the hype machine produced crickets for this Ole Miss squad. Quarterback Austin Simmons headlines my list of potential breakout performers, and although the roster experienced plenty of turnover, there’s enough talent and a favorable schedule to chase 10-2, making this a spot-on percentage.

Tennessee (33%)

My take: Connelly’s metric meter must like transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar a lot to give the Vols this much of a chance. Manageable though the schedule is, Tennessee lost a lot of production from its 2024 playoff team. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava added another hurdle in mid-April by speeding off to UCLA.

LSU (30%)

My take: I’d rank LSU inside the top 10 of my national championship contenders list. The Tigers boast a proven quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, plus talented receivers, and the nation’s No. 1-ranked transfer class, including newcomers who should elevate the defense. So, why do I say this percentage seems about right? Because LSU’s schedule includes Clemson, Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Mercy.

Florida (18%)

My take: Too high. Florida rivals Oklahoma in the toughest-schedule debate. The Gators are one of three SEC teams that will play 10 games against Power Four opponents. They’ll play seven games against teams that will be ranked in the preseason Top 25. And they weren’t particularly active in the transfer portal. I like quarterback DJ Lagway. Don’t like the chance of 10-2, though, with this schedule.

Auburn (13%)

My take: I’ll buy this one. Auburn’s two toughest opponents, Georgia and Alabama, will come to the Plains. Beat one, and there’s a lane to 10-2. The Tigers underachieved last season. They should improve on a 5-7 record. All the way to 10 wins? That’s a long shot, but there’s a chance. Say, about a 13% chance.

Oklahoma (9%)

My take: I agree with this percentage. This is what Florida’s ought to be, considering these two face the nation’s toughest schedules. Transfer quarterback John Mateer offers hope of improvement in Norman, but the schedule tamps down the odds of that improvement reaching 10-2.

Missouri (5%)

My take: Missouri lost a lot of offensive production. Former Penn State backup Beau Pribula stands first in line for the quarterback reins. How he fares will influence Missouri’s fate. Including bowl results, it won at least 10 games each of the past two seasons, so I’ll buy this 1-in-20 shot of going 10-2.

Notable by omission

Connelly did not list South Carolina or Texas A&M among his teams with at least a 5% chance of going 10-2 or better. Their percentages were not listed, along with Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. No objection on that final quartet, but I struggle to understand the Gamecocks and Aggies not checking in with at least a 5% chance of 10 wins. They combined for 17 victories last season.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

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Missouri linebacker Damon Wilson II accuses Georgia of illegal punishment in transfer portal lawsuit

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COLUMBIA, Mo. — Missouri pass rusher Damon Wilson II claims that the athletic department at Georgia is trying to illegally punish him for entering the transfer portal in a lawsuit filed by the linebacker in state court Tuesday in Boone County, Missouri.

Wilson transferred to the Tigers last January after signing a 14-month deal with Georgia’s booster collective to capitalize on his name, image and likeness. He received $30,000 in an initial payment on a $500,000 deal before entering the transfer portal.

Georgia filed a lawsuit last month claiming that Wilson owed its athletic department $390,000 in liquidated damages for leaving the team. Wilson’s countersuit claims that his former school is using such damages to “punish” him for his decision to leave.

Georgia spokesman Steve Drummond said the school had no comment because it involves pending litigation.

“When the University of Georgia Athletic Association enters binding agreements with student-athletes, we honor our commitments and expect student-athletes to do the same,” Drummond said upon the school’s initial lawsuit in early December.

Wilson had nine sacks and an interception this season for the Tigers. They will play Virginia in the Gator Bowl on Saturday.



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Dylan Stewart, top 2027 NFL prospect, stays with Gamecocks, lands major NIL deal

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One day after South Carolina received word that star quarterback LaNorris Sellers was staying in town, another star said he plans to return to the fold.

Dylan Stewart, the Gamecocks’ star edge rusher, announced he is returning for his true junior season in 2026, according to Pete Thamel, ESPN’s college football insider.

Stewart has 11 sacks in his two seasons at South Carolina and has forced 6 fumbles. Among ESPN’s draft projections, he appears to be a top prospect for the 2027 NFL Draft.

READ MORE | “South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers stays put, vows stronger return for 2026 season.”

The former five-star recruit and rising SEC pass rusher chose continuity over the transfer portal, agreeing to an NIL deal that places him among the highest compensated non-quarterbacks in college football, according to ESPN’s reporting.

South Carolina’s defense is back in reliable hands, as the Gamecocks ready themselves to bounceback from a 4-8 season.

After the pitiful finish, South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer shook up his coaching staff.

South Carolina is also expected to hire Penn State defensive line coach Deion Barnes as the defensive end and outside linebacker coach.

He’s been Penn State’s defensive line coach the past three years and worked with the line there since 2020. He coached Abdul Carter, Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac.

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READ MORE | “South Carolina to kick off 2026 football season at home against Kent State.”



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Michigan coaching search: Rece Davis advises Wolverines to keep waiting if they want Kalen DeBoer

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Until Michigan officially hires a head coach, the name Kalen DeBoer is going to be mentioned with the search. Even after DeBoer released statements saying he would stay with Alabama, rumors are out there. Folks in Ann Arbor might have been cheering for Oklahoma on Friday night to potentially speed up the process.

Instead, Alabama is heading to the Rose Bowl to face Indiana on Jan. 1. So, if DeBoer was going to be Michigan’s hire, the wait will continue. Which is exactly what ESPN’s Rece Davis believes the Wolverines should be doing in this situation.

“From Michigan’s standpoint, if that’s the guy you want, wait,” Davis said via the College GameDay Podcast. “If it takes waiting until they finish, if they were to upset Indiana, wait if that’s the guy you want. Why settle? One portal class, one recruiting class is not worth settling for a program like Michigan. Now, I understand the concept that there’s no guarantee you’re going to get him. I get that. But if you are convicted that this is your guy, wait it out. See what happens, push forward.”

If Alabama were to win in Pasadena, the next College Football Playoff date would be Jan. 8 or 9. A run to the national championship means DeBoer would not be done coaching the 2025 season until Jan. 19. But Davis mentions no singular NCAA transfer portal and/or recruiting class is as important as getting the right guy for Michigan.

When it comes down to it, Davis does not think DeBoer will leave Tuscaloosa this offseason. Those released statements were viewed as pretty telling in Davis’s eyes. And at the end of the day, DeBoer is still looking to prove to be the guy who can replace Nick Saban at Alabama.

“I do not think Kalen DeBoer will take the job,” Davis said. “Ultimately, because I don’t think he wants to be perceived as running from what he ran to. Michigan’s a great job. If he does, he does, and great for him if that’s what he decides. I don’t think he will end up doing that. Maybe he will.”

The latest update on where the Michigan coaching search came from On3’s Pete Nakos on Saturday. Nakos outlined who the top candidates are at the moment, mainly after Kenny Dillingham signed an extension to stay in Tempe with the Arizona State Sun Devils not too long ago.



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Damon Wilson ll files countersuit against UGA, claims NIL contract non-binding

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Georgia Bulldogs

Wilson’s lawsuit states that UGA’s attempt to collect the $390K lump sum was a ‘strong-arm tactic.’

Damon Wilson II played 417 defensive snaps for UGA during the 2024-25 season. He transferred to Missouri. (Jason Getz / AJC)

Damon Wilson II played 417 defensive snaps for UGA during the 2024-25 season. He transferred to Missouri. (Jason Getz / AJC)

Damon Wilson ll, who transferred from Georgia to Missouri, is suing the University of Georgia Athletic Association and the Classic City Collective claiming the term sheet he signed to remain with the program is not a legally binding agreement.

The 42-page lawsuit, acquired by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution after it was filed in the circuit court of Boone County, Mo. on Tuesday, seeks to grant Wilson relief from UGA seeking a $390,000 lump sum it claims Wilson owes by contract and hold defendants liable for “damages sufficient to compensate him for the financial and reputational harm” suffered.

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Mike Griffith

Mike is in his 10th season covering SEC and Georgia athletics for AJC-DawgNation and has 25 years of CFB experience. Mike is a Heisman Trophy voter and former Football Writers President who was named the National FWAA Beat Writer of the Year in January, 2018.



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$2.5 million QB linked to unexpected college football program

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A multitude of college football players are set to look for a new home for the 2026 college football season.

In the weeks before the NCAA transfer portal opens, quarterbacks across college football have expressed their desire to explore new destinations. These quarterbacks include DJ Lagway of Florida, Sam Leavitt of Arizona State, Josh Hoover of TCU and Brendan Sorsby of Cincinnati.

One intriguing name in the portal quarterback is former Nebraska signal caller Dylan Raiola. He will enter the transfer portal with two seasons of eligibility remaining.

Raiola is expected to command around $2.5 million in NIL compensation from whatever school he lands at.

One school that has entered the sweepstakes for Raiola is Louisville. Steve Wiltfong of On3 mentioned the possibility of Raiola joining the Cardinals in a recent edition of “Wiltfong Whiparound.”

Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola

Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) runs off after scoring a touchdown against USC | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

“They can be a program to keep an eye on for Dylan Raiola,” Wiltfong said.

In the three seasons Jeff Brohm has coached at his alma mater, Louisville has not started a quarterback it recruited from high school.

Former Purdue and California quarterback Jack Plummer transferred to Louisville and started for the Cardinals in 2023. The Cardinals acquired a former Oregon and Texas Tech quarterback from the portal to be their starter in 2024. Brohm brought in former USC quarterback Miller Moss to be the Cardinals’ starter in 2025.

The 6-foot-3, 230-pounder arrived at Nebraska as a freshman in 2024 as one of the highest-rated recruits in the country. Raiola started all 13 games for the Cornhuskers and set a program record for passing yards by a freshman with 2,819 yards to go along with 13 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.

He guided Nebraska to its first bowl win since 2015 with a defeat of Boston College (20-15) in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl.

A broken fibula cut Raiola’s 2025 season short after nine games in early November. He passed for 2,000 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions in his abridged season with the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska (7-5, 4-5) will face No. 15 Utah (10-2, 7-2) in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 31 to end the season (3:30 p.m. EST, ESPN).



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$1.6 million QB linked to College Football Playoff program

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Miami finished the regular season 11–2 and earned a berth in the expanded College Football Playoff, advancing with a 10–3 first-round win over No. 7 Texas A&M.

The No. 10 Hurricanes will face No. 2 Ohio State on December 31 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, with the winner advancing to face the victor of the No. 6 vs. No. 3 Georgia matchup in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.

With the Hurricanes set to lose starter Carson Beck after the season and the remaining depth chart made up of quarterbacks with limited in-game experience in Emory Williams and Judd Anderson, speculation has grown that Miami could pursue a proven signal caller in the transfer portal.

On December 19, Rivals’ Steve Wiltfong named NC State quarterback CJ Bailey as a potential option, despite Bailey not yet entering the transfer portal amid growing speculation that he could do so in the coming weeks.

“CJ Bailey, not in the portal, but a South Florida native. That’s a name that people bring up as a potential transfer portal option following his season and his upcoming bowl game,” Wiltfong said.

“Miami is another program that will be a major domino in the transfer portal deal.”

 NC State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey.

Tampa, FL, USA; NC State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (11) throws a pass against the Memphis Tigers in the first quarter during the Gasparilla Bowl at Raymond James Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Bailey, a Hollywood, Florida, native, posted one of the more efficient quarterback seasons in the FBS in 2025, throwing for 3,105 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions on 68.8 percent passing, while adding 215 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.

His 6-6, 210-pound frame and pocket mobility make him a high-upside, starter-ready option for Power Five programs.

Before arriving at NC State, Bailey starred at Chaminade-Madonna High School, where he was rated a four-star recruit and the No. 29 quarterback in the 247Sports Composite rankings for the 2024 cycle.

He held nearly a dozen scholarship offers, including Georgia Tech, Indiana, Louisville, Texas A&M, and Miami.

On3’s NIL trackers list Bailey’s current valuation at around $1.6 million, a notable asset for a program like Miami that can combine institutional NIL collectives with local South Florida opportunities.

Bailey’s hometown ties, starter-ready tape, recruiting familiarity, and Miami’s ability to offer larger third-party NIL packages and local marketing opportunities together create a plausible mutual fit for a portal move.

Read More at College Football HQ

  • Unexpected college football program among favorites for $2 million transfer QB

  • Major college football QB expected to ‘command’ up to $5 million in transfer portal

  • Major college football team reportedly does not have ‘any interest’ in $2.4 million QB

  • No. 1 college football team predicted to sign $2.1 million transfer QB



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