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There's hope! Ten SEC teams' percent chance to chase College Football Playoff

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There's hope! Ten SEC teams' percent chance to chase College Football Playoff


The stat nerd has spoken.ESPN’s Bill Connelly sets the industry standard for analytical preview content. His latest batch of metrics includes a look at SEC teams’ percentage chance of finishing the regular season 10-2 or better.

Why 10-2? Well, because of the theory that any SEC team that finishes 10-2 or better is a strong candidate to make the 12-team playoff.

A 9-3 record would give some SEC teams a chance at playoff qualification, but 10-2 is a golden ticket.

Connelly’s latest formula gives 10 SEC teams a 5% chance or better of finishing at least 10-2.

Strictly speaking, these percentages do not represent the chance that a team will make the playoff — only its chance of finishing 10-2 or better.

With that in mind, let’s review the percentage chance of SEC teams to finish 10-2 or better:

My take: Per Connelly’s metric, Alabama has the best chance of any SEC team to go 10-2 or better. My gut, which isn’t beholden to analytics, disagrees. The Crimson Tide’s schedule includes road games at Georgia and Auburn. My bigger reason to dial down this percentage, though, is the unproven starting quarterback.

Texas (61%)

My take: With a loaded roster led by quarterback Arch Manning, I’d be tempted to make Texas my preseason No. 1 team. Nevertheless, this percentage seems spot-on. A schedule that includes road land mines at Ohio State, Georgia and Florida creates the possibility of Texas losing three or more games.

Georgia (61%)

My take: This percentage seems a touch high. Why? Like Alabama, I’m not sold on Georgia’s quarterback situation. Gunner Stockton looked the part of sufficient backup last season. Is he ready for a star turn? I’m unconvinced. The Bulldogs enjoy the benefit of playing at home against their toughest opponents: Texas, Alabama and Mississippi.

[ This column first published in our SEC Unfiltered newsletter, emailed free to your inbox five days a week. Want more commentary like this? Sign up here for our newsletter on SEC sports. It’s free. ]

My take: Count Ole Miss among my playoff sleepers. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels received oodles of playoff hype last summer and came up a victory short. In an overcorrection, the hype machine produced crickets for this Ole Miss squad. Quarterback Austin Simmons headlines my list of potential breakout performers, and although the roster experienced plenty of turnover, there’s enough talent and a favorable schedule to chase 10-2, making this a spot-on percentage.

Tennessee (33%)

My take: Connelly’s metric meter must like transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar a lot to give the Vols this much of a chance. Manageable though the schedule is, Tennessee lost a lot of production from its 2024 playoff team. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava added another hurdle in mid-April by speeding off to UCLA.

LSU (30%)

My take: I’d rank LSU inside the top 10 of my national championship contenders list. The Tigers boast a proven quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, plus talented receivers, and the nation’s No. 1-ranked transfer class, including newcomers who should elevate the defense. So, why do I say this percentage seems about right? Because LSU’s schedule includes Clemson, Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Mercy.

Florida (18%)

My take: Too high. Florida rivals Oklahoma in the toughest-schedule debate. The Gators are one of three SEC teams that will play 10 games against Power Four opponents. They’ll play seven games against teams that will be ranked in the preseason Top 25. And they weren’t particularly active in the transfer portal. I like quarterback DJ Lagway. Don’t like the chance of 10-2, though, with this schedule.

Auburn (13%)

My take: I’ll buy this one. Auburn’s two toughest opponents, Georgia and Alabama, will come to the Plains. Beat one, and there’s a lane to 10-2. The Tigers underachieved last season. They should improve on a 5-7 record. All the way to 10 wins? That’s a long shot, but there’s a chance. Say, about a 13% chance.

Oklahoma (9%)

My take: I agree with this percentage. This is what Florida’s ought to be, considering these two face the nation’s toughest schedules. Transfer quarterback John Mateer offers hope of improvement in Norman, but the schedule tamps down the odds of that improvement reaching 10-2.

Missouri (5%)

My take: Missouri lost a lot of offensive production. Former Penn State backup Beau Pribula stands first in line for the quarterback reins. How he fares will influence Missouri’s fate. Including bowl results, it won at least 10 games each of the past two seasons, so I’ll buy this 1-in-20 shot of going 10-2.

Notable by omission

Connelly did not list South Carolina or Texas A&M among his teams with at least a 5% chance of going 10-2 or better. Their percentages were not listed, along with Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. No objection on that final quartet, but I struggle to understand the Gamecocks and Aggies not checking in with at least a 5% chance of 10 wins. They combined for 17 victories last season.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

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Big 12’s Brett Yormark says college athletics needs legislation that’s stalled in Congress :: WRAL.com

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ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) — Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark says legislation currently stalled in Congress is needed to regulate college athletics and put a stop to what he essentially calls uncapped spending for name, image and likeness in football.

“Let me be clear about this,” Yormark said Saturday before the Big 12 championship game between No. 5 Texas Tech and 11th-ranked BYU at the home of the Dallas Cowboys. “The House of Representatives must do what is right for over 500,000 student-athletes and pass the SCORE Act. We must protect their future, their well-being and their fair treatment. They deserve action and not excuses.”

An effort backed by the NCAA, the U.S. Olympic organization and the White House faltered in Congress this past week, with opponents raising concerns over the wide-reaching power it gives the governing body of college sports and its most powerful programs.

The NCAA and Division I conferences portray the legislation as codifying the rules created by the multibillion-dollar lawsuit settlement that allows college players to be paid, providing clarity that supporters say is long-needed.

House Republican leaders had planned to push the bill to a final vote this past week. But those plans were abruptly scrapped after a procedural vote to advance the bill nearly failed.

Yormark said he supports the revenue-sharing model that is part of the settlement and agrees with those who believe NIL spending on top of the $20.5 million could be destabilizing for college sports.

UCF coach Scott Frost said on national signing day this week he thinks college football is “broken” because of unregulated spending on players.

In 2017, Frost led the Golden Knights to a 13-0 record without a bid in the College Football Playoff, which included four teams at the time, before getting fired in the middle of a fifth unsuccessful season at Nebraska, his alma mater. UCF, which was in the American Conference for Frost’s first stint but has since joined the Big 12, went 5-7 in his return this year.

“I will be spending time with the commissioners next week on some of the challenges and issues that face collegiate athletics, and we’re working through them,” Yormark said. “But I want you to understand that nothing’s broken in this system. And I respect Scott. But nothing’s broken. It’s all about progress, not perfection. There is no perfection in any industry, but there is progress, and we’re making great progress.”

Yormark is ready for 16-team playoff

Yormark said he believes in the playoff model with five automatic bids, even if it might cost the Big 12 a second team this season. That scenario also fits his opinion that the CFP needs to be 16 teams — with 11 at-large bids — instead of the current 12.

“I believe that on a percentage basis, when there’s 136 FBS (bowl subdivision) schools, the number 12 is too low,” Yormark said. “We need more access for all the right reasons. And I’m very consistent about that.”

Yormark indicated he doesn’t think the playoff will expand for 2026, even with an extra eight weeks to try to reach an agreement. The new deadline is Jan. 23.

“I can tell you we’re working on it, but we can’t rush it,” Yormark said. “A lot goes into it. It’s not just about picking a number. You also have to look through a filter and say what are the unintended consequences of those decisions, which is what the commissioners and myself are working on. I’m not overly optimistic we’re going to be able to change anything for next year. But we’re in the lab.”

___

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Kentucky Basketball loses recruiting prediction for Christian Collins as NIL looms large

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Collins, a 6-foot-8, 200-pound forward from Bellflower, California, is widely regarded as one of the premier frontcourt prospects in the country. His blend of athleticism, scoring ability, and defensive versatility made him a major priority for Kentucky head coach Mark Pope and his staff as they work to build future recruiting classes.

According to Jacob Polacheck of KSR, Collins’ recruitment is being heavily influenced by NIL structure and contract details, a growing trend at the top of the recruiting landscape. That reality was addressed publicly earlier this month by Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart during Will Stein’s introductory press conference as the Wildcats’ new football head coach.

Barnhart pushed back strongly against the perception that Kentucky is at an NIL disadvantage, saying, “Enough about ‘have we got enough?’ We’ve got enough.” He also emphasized that Kentucky will not compromise its standards to land recruits. “We’ve got to do it the right way,” Barnhart said. “We’re not going to break the rules. That’s flat-out.”

While Kentucky no longer holds a crystal ball prediction for Collins, the Wildcats are not out of the race. However, his recruitment now appears far more fluid, underscoring the increasingly complex balance between elite talent, NIL expectations, and long-term program philosophy in modern college basketball.



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Kentucky loses recruiting prediction for 5-star forward Christian Collins as NIL looms large

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Kentucky Basketball suffered a notable recruiting setback this week as 247 Sports national analyst Travis Branham removed his crystal ball prediction for the Wildcats to land class of 2026 5-star power forward Christian Collins. Branham originally placed the prediction in early November, fueling optimism that Collins could commit to Kentucky as the early national signing period approached. That announcement never came, and momentum has since cooled.

Collins, a 6-foot-8, 200-pound forward from Bellflower, California, is widely regarded as one of the premier frontcourt prospects in the country. His blend of athleticism, scoring ability, and defensive versatility made him a major priority for Kentucky head coach Mark Pope and his staff as they work to build future recruiting classes.

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According to Jacob Polacheck of KSR, Collins’ recruitment is being heavily influenced by NIL structure and contract details, a growing trend at the top of the recruiting landscape. That reality was addressed publicly earlier this month by Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart during Will Stein’s introductory press conference as the Wildcats’ new football head coach.

Barnhart pushed back strongly against the perception that Kentucky is at an NIL disadvantage, saying, “Enough about ‘have we got enough?’ We’ve got enough.” He also emphasized that Kentucky will not compromise its standards to land recruits. “We’ve got to do it the right way,” Barnhart said. “We’re not going to break the rules. That’s flat-out.”

While Kentucky no longer holds a crystal ball prediction for Collins, the Wildcats are not out of the race. However, his recruitment now appears far more fluid, underscoring the increasingly complex balance between elite talent, NIL expectations, and long-term program philosophy in modern college basketball.



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Former college football star QB shuts down career move amid political rumors

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Less than two months after announcing his intention to run for lieutenant governor in Alabama, former three-time national champion Crimson Tide quarterback AJ McCarron has announced he will exit the race.

McCarron is seeking to rededicate himself to football, an effort that will require “100% of my focus, commitment, and attention that I was to give to the office of lieutenant governor, so it is time to end my campaign,” he said in a statement.

A historic career at Alabama

McCarron led the Crimson Tide to back-to-back BCS national championships in 2011 and 2012 and was part of the national title team as a redshirt player in 2009.

A native of Mobile, the quarterback became the first player at his position to win consecutive BCS titles and also received several of college football’s more prestigious awards, including the Maxwell, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and Kellen Moore Awards.

As a junior, McCarron established an Alabama record with 30 touchdown passes in a season, and broke Greg McElroy’s former record with 3,063 passing yards in a season during his senior campaign in 2013.

McCarron finished his Alabama career with a 36-4 overall record, completing almost 67 percent of his passes with 77 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

McCarron in the NFL

The quarterback emerged as a fifth-round selection in the 2014 NFL Draft by the Cincinnati Bengals, playing as a backup for four years.

McCarron spent the next four seasons as a reserve first with the Oakland Raiders, followed by a stint with the Houston Texas, and finally the Atlanta Falcons.

From there, he played in the XFL with the St. Louis Battlehawks, a franchise that then moved to the United Football League.

McCarron’s political ambitions

The former quarterback star was running as a Republican for the second-highest office in his home state, a move he said was inspired by the murder of conservative political activist Charlie Kirk.

“Alabama’s conservative and cultural values are under attack from every direction,” McCarron said in his announcement for office.

“That’s why Charlie Kirk’s assassination affected so many of us so deeply. His example convinced me to get off of the sidelines, get into the game, and stand tall for our conservative beliefs.”

McCarron currently serves as a college football commentator as part of The Dynasty podcast, which he presents with fellow Alabama alum Trent Richardson and Crimson Tide broadcaster Chris Stewart.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Jayden Maiava returning to USC on new NIL deal

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Dec. 17, 2025, 1:41 p.m. ET

USC will get its starting signal-caller back in 2026.

On Tuesday, the program announced that quarterback Jayden Maiava has signed a new NIL deal to return to the Trojans next season. Maiava, who previously played at UNLV, would have had a significant transfer portal market and also ranked as a top-10 quarterback prospect in the 2026 NFL draft, per ESPN’s Mel Kiper.

Maiava started 11 games at UNLV in 2023 before transferring to USC, where he ultimately lost the starting job to Miller Moss ahead of the 2024 season. However, amid subpar play from Moss, coach Lincoln Riley made a change as he started the final four games.



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A new era of NIL at Oklahoma State

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STILLWATER – Oklahoma State is taking a significant step forward in the modern landscape of college athletics with the formation of the OSU NIL Alliance.
 
Created to fully-fund revenue share and to grow endorsement opportunities for Oklahoma State student-athletes, The Alliance pairs the POSSE Excellence Fund with Learfield’s Cowboy Sports Properties.
 
The POSSE Excellence Fund provides more than $31 million in scholarships and revenue share for student-athletes across all of OSU’s ticketed sports. Cowboy Sports Properties integrates NIL opportunities for student-athletes into OSU’s existing sponsorship, media and marketing ecosystem.
 
“The OSU NIL Alliance will streamline how our supporters can maximize new opportunities for our student-athletes and continue to position OSU for championship-level success.” Athletic Director Chad Weiberg said.
 
Weiberg appointed Brakston Brock to lead this next step in OSU’s NIL evolution. Brock has climbed the ranks during his six years in Stillwater and now elevates into the role of Senior Associate Athletic Director for NIL Strategy and Revenue Generation.
 
For more information on the OSU NIL Alliance, visit https://okstate.com/nil.
 



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