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How 2024-25 CFP Would’ve Looked Under Proposed Expansion Formats

Published

5 months ago

July 5, 2025

The College Football Playoff will almost certainly expand again in 2026, going from a 12-team format to a 14- or 16-team format. While we don’t know which of these it’ll be, it’s always fun to think about what things could look like.

In the most recent episode of “The Joel Klatt Show: Big Noon Conversations,” Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti broke down how discussions over the CFP expansion are going, as he holds a key role. He also shared that he’s seeking more meaningful games in the CFP expansion and believes that a 16-team format could help accomplish that.

“Bigger is better,” Petitti said. “I think 12 is not enough teams given the size of the teams that are competing. You look at professional leagues, they [have] somewhere between 40% and 50% of their teams qualifying for the postseason. We’re way below that, even at 16. I think we want to be really careful.”

As Petitti potentially seeks a 16-team CFP, the determination of which 16 (or 14) teams would qualify is still up for debate. Automatic qualifiers would likely be involved in some form or fashion.

So, let’s see how the proposed formats for the CFP expansion could have impacted last year’s field, with the consideration that the CFP has already gone to a straight seeding model after last year.

4+4+2+2+1+3 format

In this format of the 16-team model, the Big Ten and the SEC would’ve received four automatic bids to the CFP, while the ACC and Big 12 each would’ve received two. There also would’ve been an automatic spot for the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion and three at-large bids. With the idea of a conference championship weekend being thrown out there as an extension to the CFP expansion, we used the standings for the four major conferences to help determine which teams would have received those automatic qualifying spots.

In the Big Ten, both Oregon and Penn State would’ve received an automatic bid, as they had the two best conference records in the regular season. The other two games in the Big Ten during conference championship weekend would have been Illinois (No. 6 in the Big Ten standings) at Indiana (No. 3 in the Big Ten standings) and Iowa (No. 5 in the Big Ten standings) at Ohio State (No. 4 in the Big Ten standings). The winner of those two games would’ve received the two automatic bids. In this practice, let’s presume that Indiana and Ohio State win their respective games.

In the SEC, both Georgia and Texas would’ve received an automatic bid, as they had the two best conference records in the regular season. The other two games in the SEC would’ve been South Carolina (No. 6 in the SEC standings) at Tennessee (No. 3 in the SEC standings) and LSU (No. 5 in the SEC standings) at Alabama (No. 4 in the SEC standings). Just like the Big Ten, the winners of those games would’ve received the conference’s two other automatic bids. So, let’s presume the favorites of those games win, meaning Tennessee and Alabama advance.

As for the ACC and the Big 12, it isn’t exactly known what their conference championship weekends would look like. The ACC recently mentioned an idea where it could have its regular-season conference champion get a bye that week, meaning the second- and third-place teams in the regular-season standings play for the conference’s other automatic berth.

For the sake of this exercise, let’s send the two teams who finished No. 1 and No. 2 in the regular season standings for the ACC and Big 12 to the CFP. That would mean SMU and Clemson would advance out of the ACC, while Arizona State and Iowa State would’ve advanced out of the Big 12. Boise State was the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, receiving the No. 9 ranking in the final CFP poll. That was an easy one to figure out.

As for the three at-large spots, that’s where things might get a little tricky. Notre Dame was ranked fifth in the final CFP poll, meaning it would’ve likely occupied one of these at-large bids. If we went by the rankings, Miami (Fla.) and Ole Miss would’ve received the final two at-large spots. However, neither of those teams would’ve played in conference championship weekend during this exercise, leading to some potential murkiness with assembling the field. For now, let’s send Miami and Ole Miss to the CFP.

Here’s how that 16-team field would’ve looked under that format, using the final CFP rankings:

Oregon
Georgia
Texas
Penn State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Tennessee
Indiana
Boise State
SMU
Alabama
Arizona State
Miami (Fla.)
Ole Miss
Clemson
Iowa State

First two teams out: South Carolina, BYU

One of the ideas being thrown out there for the 16-team CFP is for the top two seeds to get a double bye and a play-in round between the No. 13-16 seeds. That would mean Miami would host Iowa State, which was the Pop-Tarts Bowl matchup this past season, and Ole Miss would host Clemson. As for second-round matchups, Ohio State would’ve hosted Alabama and Notre Dame would’ve hosted Arizona State. Oregon also would’ve avoided Ohio State in the quarterfinals thanks to the straight seeding.

5+11 format

This is probably the easiest of the five formats to understand. In this format, the five highest-ranked conference winners plus the 11 highest-ranked at-large teams would’ve received a berth into the 2024 CFP.

Here’s how that would’ve looked like:

Oregon
Georgia
Texas
Penn State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Tennessee
Indiana
Boise State
SMU
Alabama
Arizona State
Miami (Fla.)
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Clemson

First two teams out: BYU, Iowa State

In the possible scenario that there’s a “play-in weekend,” we would’ve seen two conference matchups taking place. Miami would’ve hosted Clemson after the Tigers won the ACC Championship Game, while Ole Miss would’ve hosted South Carolina. This format would’ve really only changed the last two seeds from the previous format, with South Carolina taking Iowa State’s spot in the field. That would’ve left the Big 12 with just one team in the tournament.

4+4+2.5+2.5+1+2 format

This format is similar to the first format we mentioned. The only difference is that there would’ve been one more automatic bid for an ACC team or the Big 12 would receive a third automatic bid, depending on which conference’s third-place team is ranked higher. As a result, there would’ve been one fewer at-large spot.

For the sake of brevity, let’s assume that the same eight teams from the Big Ten and the SEC in the first format receive the eight automatic bids between the two conferences in this format. Let’s also assume SMU, Clemson, Arizona State and Iowa State also receive the first two automatic bids from their respective conferences, the ACC and the Big 12.

That would leave Miami and BYU as the two third-place teams from the ACC and the Big 12 seeking the other automatic qualifying spot. Miami was the higher-ranked team of the two (No. 13 to BYU’s No. 17 ranking), meaning the Hurricanes would advance to the CFP. But if the CFP really wanted to get creative, it could have the third-place teams in the ACC and the Big 12 go head-to-head for this spot.

Again, Boise State was the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, so it would’ve received a spot in this format. Notre Dame was ranked fifth in the final CFP poll, so it likely would’ve been given one of the last at-large bids. Ole Miss would’ve been the second-highest ranked non-automatic-qualifying team, likely giving it a berth in the CFP.

Cam Ward and the Miami Hurricanes would’ve almost certainly made the College Football Playoff if it was a 16-team field, regardless of the format. (Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Here’s what the 16-team field would’ve looked like in this format:

Oregon
Georgia
Texas
Penn State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Tennessee
Indiana
Boise State
SMU
Alabama
Arizona State
Miami (Fla.)
Ole Miss
Clemson
Iowa State

First two teams out: South Carolina, BYU

This format would’ve produced the exact same 16 teams and seeds as the first format we mentioned. The big difference is that the slight tweak would’ve given Miami an automatic bid, as none of the other formats would’ve given the Hurricanes a guaranteed spot in the field last season. It also would’ve given some more stability to the ACC or the Big 12, as their respective conferences’ third-place team typically isn’t ranked in the top 10 of the final CFP poll.

4+4+3+3+1+1 format

In this proposed format, the ACC and the Big 12 would each get three automatic qualifiers, while the Big Ten and the SEC would still get four. There would also be an automatic qualifier for the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion to go along with one at-large bid.

As with the other two examples where the Big Ten and the SEC get four automatic qualifiers, we’ll assume the same eight teams make it into the field via the conference championship weekend. How the ACC and the Big 12 would determine their three automatic qualifiers in this scenario is anyone’s guess, but the simplest way would be to have the top two teams in each conference in the regular season occupying two of those spots, while the third would be determined through a play-in game. If the higher-ranked team won those games, we’d have SMU, Clemson and Miami representing the ACC, while Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU would get the Big 12’s three automatic qualifiers.

Jalen Milroe, Kalen DeBoer and Alabama could’ve made the College Football Playoff last season in an expanded field. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

Again, Boise State would be the Group of 5 representative and Notre Dame would likely occupy the lone at-large spot.

Here’s how the field would’ve like in this scenario:

Oregon
Georgia
Texas
Penn State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Tennessee
Indiana
Boise State
SMU
Alabama
Arizona State
Miami (Fla.)
Clemson
Iowa State
BYU

First two teams out: Ole Miss, South Carolina

The big difference in this format is Ole Miss wouldn’t qualify for the CFP because it didn’t finish in the top six of the SEC, nor was it the highest-ranked remaining team for an at-large spot. A potential play-in weekend in this scenario would’ve featured two ACC-Big 12 battles, while the top 12 seeds remain consistent with the other three formats we’ve gone over so far.

14 team format: 4+4+2+2+1+1

While it seems unlikely, a 14-team format is still on the table for the latest round of CFP expansion. The most common format for a 14-team playoff features four automatic bids for the Big Ten and the SEC, while the ACC and the Big 12 get two apiece. The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion would also get an automatic bid, while there would be an at-large bid for the highest-ranked remaining team.

This format is comparable to the first format we mentioned; it just has two fewer at-large bids. So, the four teams representing the Big Ten and the SEC would remain the same in our practice scenario. The same goes for the ACC (SMU and Clemson) and the Big 12 (Arizona State and Iowa State), but as we mentioned earlier, it’s unclear what each of those conferences would likely do for a conference championship weekend if it had two automatic bids.

Big Ten commisioner Tony Petitti could help his conference receive four automatic bids in the next round of College Football Playoff expansion. (Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Just like the other formats, Boise State (highest-ranked Group of 5 champion) and Notre Dame (highest-ranked at-large team) would also make the field.

Here’s how a potential 14-team CFP format would’ve looked like last season:

Oregon
Georgia
Texas
Penn State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Tennessee
Indiana
Boise State
SMU
Alabama
Arizona State
Clemson
Iowa State

First two teams out: Miami, Ole Miss

The top 12 seeds in this format would’ve remained the same compared to the other four formats, but this is the first format that doesn’t include Miami.

A play-in weekend also wouldn’t be possible in a 14-team format. Oregon and Georgia would’ve received first-round byes as the other 12 teams duked it out. Some of those first-round matchups would’ve included a game between former Big 12 foes (Iowa State-Texas), Clemson making the trip up to Happy Valley to take on Penn State and Alabama facing Ohio State.

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The Clemson Insider

Published

19 minutes ago

December 13, 2025

Your Sports Nation

CLEMSON — While Clemson continues to prepare to play Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 27, there are things happening inside the program that will help shape what takes place next year.

The next month is going to be the most important month Dabo Swinney’s program will have in a very long time.

Why?

There is a lot going on, whether it be through the transfer portal, NIL or coaching. There are a lot of moving parts right now and it is all important to next year’s team.

Though Swinney will not talk about next year’s team until this season is over, we can.

As we have reported, there are and there will be more changes to the coaching staff. There will also be more changes to the personnel.

The transfer portal officially opens on Jan. 2, and, as you know, several Tigers have already given their intentions to enter the portal. Four underclassmen have declared for the NFL Draft, as well.

Clemson welcomes 19 freshmen to the team, most of them will enroll in January. However, the Tigers will have two weeks to bring in some more talent from the portal.

How Swinney and the coaching staff attack the portal will be paramount to the 2026 team’s success?

It has been well documented Clemson has not handled the NIL and portal as well as other schools. You only need to look at the four previous seasons to see what I am talking about.

Since 2021, the Tigers are 37-16 (.698) with one College Football Playoff appearance. Granted, the Tigers did win ACC Championships in 2022 and ’24, but it is obvious the program has slipped a notch in this new era of college football.

Can the Tigers reach the top of the mountain, again?

I am not sure.

Let’s be honest, the NIL has hurt Clemson. Part of that is Clemson’s fault, part of that is just the way things are. It’s hard for Clemson to compete in the third-party NIL world with schools that can. That is one reason why the Tigers cannot sign 5-star prospects anymore.

While Clemson continues to struggle with the NIL, other schools within the ACC, continue to have success. ACC Champion Duke is a perfect example of this.

Before the NIL, Duke was irrelevant in football and there was no way they could compete with the Clemson’s and Florida State’s. These days, the Blue Devils own a two-game win streak against the Tigers.

Why?

Because they are more successful with the NIL.

Virginia is another example. Tony Elliott went to the portal and pulled 30 new players on a team that made it to the ACC Championship Game. He used revenue sharing and NIL funds to get the best players he could.

As we mentioned before, the changes in college football are very reminiscent of how new rules in college baseball affected the Clemson baseball program some 15 years ago. Clemson baseball has never fully recovered.

Will Clemson Football?

To do that, Clemson must change its philosophy when it comes to paying players from the portal.

This is like free agency in the NFL. You must go and pay for the best.

You must do what is best for the program, not worry if you hurt the feelings of a current player on the roster.

Look at it this way, Clemson is losing, potentially, three first-round picks—Peter Woods, Avieon Terrell and T.J. Parker—and one second-round pick in Antonio Williams. Those guys are all underclassmen. Who are the Tigers replacing them with?

Let me ask you this. How many first-round picks will next year’s roster have?

This is an important off-season. Swinney must make the right choices in the portal.

The Tigers cannot afford to go 4-4 in the ACC again, which is possible if you look at next year’s schedule.

Clemson will play Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia at home in 2026. As well as visit California, Duke, Florida State and Syracuse. Look at that schedule, do you think the Tigers, with the current roster, can win the ACC next season?

This is why the next month is going to be so big for the Clemson Football program.

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Oregon WR Dakorien Moore signs NIL deal with Red Bull

Published

1 hour ago

December 13, 2025

Your Sports Nation

Dec. 12, 2025, 10:38 a.m. PT

College football has always been an expansive and complex entity and it has shifted even further in that direction in recent years with the introduction of NIL deals and the expansion of the transfer portal. Oddly enough, it is those same alterations that play a part in the Oregon Ducks becoming such an attractive destination.

They landed five-star wide receiver Dakorien Moore last recruiting cycle and he has been everything that the school and scouts hoped he would be. He is dealing with a knee injury currently, but he had recorded 443 yards and three touchdowns in just eight games before his stellar season was disrupted.

Moore has been so impressive that reports surfaced yesterday that he is signing an NIL deal with Red Bull, an energy drink manufacturer. No details have emerged about how much it is worth, but the true freshman wideout added yet another partnership to an already strong package of NIL contracts.

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Sen. Ted Cruz Talks College Sports, Prop Bets, And Sen. Kennedy One-Liners

Published

2 hours ago

December 13, 2025

Your Sports Nation

Senator Ted Cruz joined OutKick’s Dan Dakich for a wide-ranging interview that touched on everything from saving college sports to making sure betting on prop bets doesn’t lead to corruption of integrity to the one-liners of Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy.

As I said, wide-ranging, and you can check out the interview in its entirety on the Don’t @ Me with Dan Dakich YouTube channel.

One of the biggest stories in sports these days has to do with the state of college sports and how it has been impacted by NIL. Sen. Cruz talked about how, while it’s good that athletes can make some money off of their name, image, and likeness, the bidding wars we see are going to threaten the existence of college sports.

There’s An Absolute Crisis In College Sports | Don’t @ Me w/ Dan Dakich

“So look, I think there’s an absolute crisis in college sports. I think the current situation [is] the Wild West,” the Republican senator from Texas said. “Every school is in a bidding war. It keeps going up and up and up. With the transfer portal, you’ve got people jumping from school to school to school, and I don’t think any of this is good for college schools.

“I think we’re on a path where, if Congress doesn’t act, we’re going to see a handful of schools, maybe 30 [or] 40, schools that are ‘super schools’ that survive… But a whole bunch of other schools on the current path — I think division two schools, division three schools, and even a bunch of division one schools — this bidding war is pricing them out of being competitive. That’s not good for sports.”

Cruz also talked about how sports that don’t typically earn income for their schools are going to be in a lot of danger because of the current system, and how that could take away incredible opportunities for those student-athletes.

“I’m really worried about all the kids that this is their only hope to get an education,” Sen. Cruz said. “To learn the discipline and teamwork and all the skills you get playing sports that then help you in life, help you get a job, help you build a business, help you provide for your family. And so I think there is an urgent need for Congress to step in.”

Another major issue impacting sports that Dakich and Sen. Cruz discussed has to do with sports gambling. Specifically, prop bets and how easy it can be for players to manipulate them, thereby threatening the integrity of the game.

Sen. Cruz: Prop Bets = Corruption Waiting to Happen | Don’t @ Me w/ Dan Dakich

“I can tell you, I’ve recently sent oversight letters to the NBA and Major League Baseball inquiring, getting the facts about how many, how many complaints I’m particularly concerned about prop bets,” Sen. Cruz said. “If you can bet on whether the first pitch in a game is going to be a ball or a strike, well, you know what? The pitcher can’t necessarily guarantee it’s a strike, but 100% of the time, he can guarantee it’s a ball, and that just invites corruption.”

Sen. Cruz mentioned that he has talked to leagues and gambling platforms about this issue and is exploring ways Congress might be able to help maintain the integrity of games.

“I don’t think anyone wants to see sports where you don’t trust the outcome, where you think it’s rigged, where you have an athlete throwing a game because he wants to make a buck,” the senator said. “That’s a bad outcome, and I do think we need to work to prevent it.”

And finally, Dakich and Cruz hit on a lighter topic, and those are the legendary one-liners of Louisiana Republican Sen. John Kennedy.

“That judiciary committee hearing where John Kennedy leaned forward into the microphone and he says, ‘Christmas tree ornaments and Jeffrey Epstein: two things you know, didn’t hang themselves.'” Sen. Cruz recalled. “I always fell out of my chair. I’m like, Wait, how was that out loud?”

How great is that? It would’ve made a perfect Carnac joke back in the day.

Dakich then mentioned that one of his favorite Sen. Kennedy lines, “She’s not the dumbest person in the country, but she better hope the dumbest person doesn’t die.”

“John is essentially a stand–up comedian,” Sen. Cruz said, before bringing up an all-time Kennedy gem. “He said things like ‘AOC is why they put instructions on shampoo.’”

…

Be sure to check out the entire interview on the Don’t @ Me with Dan Dakich YouTube channel.

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Rodriguez collects Bednarik Award for fifth national honor

Published

3 hours ago

December 13, 2025

Your Sports Nation

LUBBOCK, Texas – Texas Tech senior linebacker Jacob Rodriguez collected his fifth national award this season Friday evening as he was tabbed the winner of the Bednarik Award during the College Football Awards Show live on ESPN.

Rodriguez is the first Red Raider in program history to win the Bednarik Award, which is presented annually by the Maxwell Football Club to the nation’s top defensive player. The Bednarik Award selected Rodriguez over Ohio State safety Caleb Downs and Texas A&M defensive end Cashius Howell.

With the addition of the Bednarik Award, Rodriguez is now the winner of the Butkus Award (nation’s top linebacker), the Bronko Nagurski Trophy (nation’s top defensive player), the Lombardi Award (nation’s top lineman or linebacker) and the Pony Express Award (nation’s top duo with David Bailey) this season alone. He is the third player in history to win the Butkus Award as well as the Nagurski Trophy and Bednarik Award in the same season, joining Miami’s Dan Morgan (2000) and Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o (2012). Rodriguez joins Te’o as the only players to also win the Lombardi Award.

Rodriguez, who was also tabbed a first team All-American by the Walter Camp Foundation during the ESPN broadcast, has bolstered one of the nation’s top defenses, leading the Red Raiders to their first Big 12 title in program history this season and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff. The Red Raiders enter a potential matchup with either No. 5 Oregon or No. 12 seed James Madision at 12-1 overall, marking the most wins in program history.

Rodriguez has now led Texas Tech to four-consecutive bowl appearances during his career after going from a scholarship quarterback at Virginia, to walk-on linebacker with the Red Raiders and now a national award winner. He was joined during the ESPN College Football Awards Show by his parents, Joe and Ann Rodriguez, and his wife, Emma.

Rodriguez enters bowl season as the FBS leader with seven forced fumbles and ranks among the top-15 players nationally with 117 tackles. He is the first FBS player since 2005 to record at least five forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and four interceptions all in the same season. His impact has bolstered a Texas Tech defense that leads the nation with 31 takeaways and ranks third nationally in scoring defense at 10.9 points per game. Rodriguez was responsible for nine takeaways himself — all in Big 12 play – thanks to his ability to punch the ball out and also read the quarterback in coverage.

Rodriguez is currently the highest-rated player in all of college football, according to Pro Football Focus, grading out at 93.3 overall so far this season. He is the top-rated player in the country in terms of rush defense, receiving a 95.5 grade in that area for a Red Raider defense that is easily the nation’s best in stopping opponents on the ground. Texas Tech is giving up only 68.5 rushing yards a game thanks to Rodriguez, who also ranks fifth nationally in coverage with a 92.3 grade.

Established in 1995, the Chuck Bednarik Award is one of the most-prestigious honors in college football, awarded annually to the most outstanding defensive player. This accolade recognizes exceptional talent, tenacity and impact on the defensive side of the ball. The award is named in tribute to Chuck Bednarik, a revered figure in football history known for his remarkable career as a linebacker.

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Oddsmakers like Ohio State over Indiana to win College Football Playoff – The Daily Hoosier

Published

4 hours ago

December 13, 2025

Your Sports Nation

Although Indiana just beat Ohio State on a neutral field to win the Big Ten Championship, the Hoosiers are a consensus underdog to the Buckeyes when it comes to winning the national title.

Surveying six different online gambling sites — Bet365, MGM, DraftKings, Caesers, FanDuel and Bet Rivers — Indiana has the second-best odds as of Friday morning at each outlet to win the 2025 national championship. Ohio State has the consensus best odds, and Georgia the third-best.

The consensus national champion odds at Action Network has Ohio State at +222, Indiana at +280, and Georgia at +550.

Indiana is the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff, AP Top-25, and Coaches Poll. The Hoosiers beat Ohio State for the first time since 1988 on Saturday in Indianapolis.

Ohio State would likely have to beat Georgia in the national semifinal to reach the national championship game. Indiana would likely have to beat either Oregon or Texas Tech, the teams with the fourth and fifth-best odds, respectively.

Against its potential quarterfinal round opponents at the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1, Indiana is around a 6.5-point favorite over Alabama, and a 9.5-point favorite over Oklahoma.

Here is the official 2025-26 College Football Playoff bracket