In college football discourse, there’s a tendency to talk about the transfer portal and NIL as unprecedented pillars of change that have disturbed a previously tranquil landscape.

Don’t get me wrong: this is very much a new era of college sports. But as a history guy, I have a different perspective.

College sports have always been marked by change. In the 1950’s, scholarships were formally legalized as teams began to offer financial inducements to attract talent. The two-platoon system was implemented in 1964, allowing for unlimited substitutions and making football programs prohibitively more expensive to maintain. The 80’s ushered in the era of massive TV contracts, leading to the first big wave of conference realignment and the formation of de jure “power conferences” in the 90’s. In the 2010’s, Nick Saban implemented the support staff model at Alabama that fundamentally restructured football departments.

The transfer portal, in conjunction with NIL, just happens to be the change of our era. And schools will continue to adapt.

This offseason, Virginia Tech has hammered the portal like never before under Brent Pry, bringing in 30 transfer additions. As of now, over one-third of the players on Tech’s roster began their careers elsewhere, and an even higher percentage will occupy the two-deep.

It’s a perfect time, then, to talk about the ramifications of the Hokies going portal-heavy — and how the portal has changed college football as a whole.

The Portal: In Exercise in Volatility

While the negatives of the transfer portal are discussed ad nauseum, there are upsides as well. Big-time programs can no longer stash elite talent on the bench; players leave before they can be developed by those big schools; and there’s less roster continuity across the board.

All this has led to increased volatility in the sport. For instance: last year, Indiana showed the greatest single-season improvement in adjusted efficiency, according to SP+, for any Power Four team ever. Ever!

(Okay, since at least 2005, but probably ever.)

In fact, five of the nine biggest single-season improvements by any team have occurred in just the last three years. Among them: Arizona State’s squad that made a Cinderella run to the CFP last season, and a trio of teams in 2022 (Duke, Kansas, TCU) that were all led by first- or second-year head coaches.

The revenue-sharing era is just over one week old, and since then dozens of athletes have signed agreements with the University of Louisville.

The revenue-sharing era of college sports is just over a week old.

It has been eight months, almost to the day, since the NCAA voted to open up eligibility to Canadian Hockey League players. We’re now weeks away from the official Aug. 1, 2025 date set by the Division I Council.

The flow of college hockey commitments from OHL, QMJHL and WHL players is now ramping up as each school’s admittance deadline for the fall semester approaches — as are CHL clubs’ efforts to develop relationships with agencies and NCAA programs and recruit players across the border in the other direction from U.S. minor hockey, Canadian Jr. A and the USHL.

On Tuesday night, when the reigning CHL Player of the Year and No. 1 prospect in the 2026 NHL Draft class, Gavin McKenna, announced on ESPN’s SportsCenter his decision to commit to play his draft year at Penn State University, it marked the biggest decision since November’s rule change and arguably the biggest freshman recruitment in the history of college hockey.

Here’s where the landscape stands and what it means for the NCAA, CHL, Penn State and the rippling impact of NIL money in the sport.

Different approaches around the NCAA in new era

Penn State’s approach in this new era of recruiting has been pretty clear: The Nittany Lions have positioned themselves and their NIL pot as a major player financially and are looking to capitalize on the momentum of a Frozen Four appearance to sell their first-class facilities, coaching staff (led by head coach Guy Gadowsky) and Hockey Valley as a new top destination for players.

But more interesting than that to me over the last several months has been the different ways schools are going about their sales pitch. Michigan State has really sold its coaching staff under Adam Nightingale and the renewed history and facilities at Munn Ice Arena to successfully recruit top classes and transfers. I heard a lot about Boston College, Boston University and Maine spending time in QMJHL rinks this year, and Maine has had some positive early successes tapping into Quebec and eastern Canada for players. Colorado College under Kris Mayotte has smartly recruited mid-round picks who were top players for their CHL teams, but are maybe not marquee names. Nebraska-Omaha is trying to carve out a reputation as a U Sports recruiter and has successfully recruited a class of former top CHLers who didn’t get pro deals and were stars at Canadian universities last year. North Dakota is using geography, history and a new staff structure to go after the top players in western Canada and has already landed two big ones in top 2026 prospect Keaton Verhoeff and 2025 first-rounder Cole Reschny. And there are other programs, like the University of Minnesota which has so heavily focused on players from within the state for so long, that haven’t yet made the same kind of inroads.

Who has success doing what is going to be one of the fascinating stories of the next few years in college hockey.

The CHL will still be the CHL

I think there’s been a bit of hyperbole and conjecture in all of this about the ultimate fate of the CHL.

There have been a little over 150 commitments made by CHL players to the NCAA. Of those, roughly 85 percent are graduating or 19-year-old players, meaning only a little over 20 players aged 17-18 have so far made the move for next year. In the last couple of weeks, several first-rounders who had interest from top NCAA programs, including Jake O’Brien, Benjamin Kindel and Lynden Lakovic, have decided to return to the CHL and sign entry-level contracts with their NHL clubs. (Look out for a few more in the next couple of weeks.)

It’s still a sensitive topic and time for the leagues, their teams and owners and fans in 61 hockey markets.

The counterflow back the other way and into the CHL has been real as well, though. More than 25 USHL players made the move to the CHL this season, and others, like Sharks second-rounder Haoxi Wang, made the move out of Canadian Jr. A and into the league. In the fall, college-bound USHL players like Blake Montgomery and Lev Katzin made quick decisions to come north. Other top young Canadian players like Adam Valentini and Caleb Malhotra, who didn’t previously have the CHL as an option after they made NCAA commitments, are now choosing it as their preferred path into college. A record number of American players were taken in the 2025 OHL Priority Selection. Some of the bigger programs think they can challenge the U.S. NTDP for top American talent now. The Quebec Remparts were aggressive in the QMJHL draft, targeting prospects in the U.S. The Saint John Sea Dogs have a history of pulling American players from the northeast of the U.S. that they can now lean on. The Penticton Vees, the CHL’s newest franchise, have a similar history out west and established relationships with NCAA programs. I’ve heard that franchises like Portland, Moncton and Kitchener have also worked hard to establish lines of communication with agencies and schools.

“There’s this big thing that we hate them and they hate us, but we’ve all got buddies who coach in the NCAA,” one OHL general manager told The Athletic.

“In my eyes, build a good program, have good coaching, development, communication, then why would they leave? It’s the best development league in the world,” said another OHL general manager.

Just last week, the Brantford Bulldogs secured USHL and Czech national team star Adam Benák, a Wild prospect, in the CHL Import Draft. The Regina Pats drafted USHL goalie and Red Wings prospect Michal Pradel. The Sea Dogs drafted Olivers Murnieks, a potential top-two-rounds pick in 2026, who played last season in the USHL. On Monday, I got a text about Nikita Klepov, another potential top-two-rounds pick in 2026 who played in the USHL last season and may end up in Saginaw next year. The list goes on.

“Once everything kind of settles, is it a bad thing? I don’t know if it’s a bad thing,” said a QMJHL head coach.

The $ — and NIL — of it all

Money talks.

It has always talked loudly in hockey, an expensive sport made up predominantly of well-to-do people.

But it’s talking louder than ever in the sport right now, and McKenna’s package from Penn State has set a new bar. Not that long ago, top NHL prospects were telling me they were getting branded sweaters and free meals at local restaurants as their NIL packages. McKenna’s package, all in all, is rumored to be upwards of $700,000 USD — or in and around a million CAD. (I haven’t been able to verify that number with people connected to McKenna, but it’s the biggest package ever given to a college hockey player.)

The CHL’s three leagues remain in good positions to hold their standings as the NHL’s top leagues for developing players. Several markets, including Brantford and Ottawa, have new arenas in the works. On Tuesday morning, at the height of McKenna Watch, the Drummondville Voltigeurs announced a complete overhaul of their Centre Marcel Dionne. There is big money behind organizations like Moncton and Saint John. In May, players’ area upgrades were announced for The Aud, Kitchener’s legendary arena. Other teams have reached out to their municipalities for the first time in decades in an effort to take this moment to improve their facilities and offerings.

“It puts a little bit of the onus on the owners of upscaling what they have to offer for facilities,” one OHL coach told The Athletic.

However, many CHL clubs can’t compete with the money and facilities offered at the big American schools. I’ve been to dozens of the CHL’s rinks and virtually all of the NCAA’s big schools. I’ve been behind the scenes at Wisconsin’s Kohl Center and Labahn Arena, and Michigan State’s newly upgraded and iconic Munn Ice Arena. I know what they’re up against. But where the money goes, the players will benefit. That’s true in both the NCAA and CHL, where the developments of the last year are only positive for what they mean for the pockets of the players and the amenities and paths they’ll have available to them on either side of the border.

There’s fear within the CHL and the NCAA that the rich will get richer and smaller markets and schools will have an even tougher time competing with the likes of London in the CHL and the powerhouses in the Big Ten or Hockey East than they already do, but smart hockey and business minds will find niches and avenues forward.

A program-shaping time for Penn State

The Nittany Lions didn’t become a Division I hockey program until 2011. When they did, they brought in Guy Gadowsky, previously of Princeton and Alaska-Fairbanks. In their second season as a Division I program, they played as a conference-less independent school. They’ve yet to produce an NHL player of note. But after a stunning run to the Frozen Four following a difficult, testy start to last season, they’ve now suddenly emerged, with their big-money backing (and their Pegula Ice Arena — with all of its bells and whistles — named after it), as a front-runner in the recruiting race for top talent. Last year’s team helped turn Nashville Predators prospect Aiden Fink into one of the country’s top scorers and overager Charlie Cerrato into a second-round pick, but they’ve never had a best-in-class freshman class, or even a freshman class of any notoriety. Now, after landing big transfer portal gets like Mac Gadowsky, Guy’s son, and goaltender Kevin Reider, they’ve also lured freshmen like Blue Jackets first-rounder Jackson Smith, Flames prospect Luke Misa and now McKenna.

And it cannot be overstated what McKenna does for the Nittany Lions. Not only is it a transformational time for the program and its boosters, it could create another potential giant in a Big Ten conference that had already had quite the glow-up over the last several years thanks to the re-emergence of Michigan State and the continued relevance of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin (albeit with mixed on-ice results for the latter).

A player like McKenna in Hockey Valley was unthinkable a short time ago. Part of the impetus of his decision was to put his mark on the program he chose. In choosing Penn State, he changes everything for them.

(Photo: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)

Phil Steele gave his 2025 forecast for the Kentucky Wildcats this upcoming college football season and the veteran writer expects a bit of improvement from the ‘Cats. The 2025 college football season will be the most important of the Mark Stoops era at Kentucky, as it suffered their worst season since 2013 in 2024 (4-8).

Kentucky stunned No. 6 Ole Miss on the road last season, but lost its other eight game against power-four programs. It heads into this season with a new quarterback, Zach Calzada from Incarnate Word, but returns 14 starters from last year’s team.

“Mark Stoops opened with three losing seasons (1 play away from bowl in both ’14 and ’15) but delivered 8 straight bowls,” Steele wrote. “In 2021 UK finished in sole possession of 2nd place in the SEC East for the first time ever at 10-3. In ’22 Cats fans beat me up all summer for having them #35 in my preseason rankings. UK entered the season ranked (#20) for the first time since 1978 (4-6-1 that yr) and they opened 4-0 and #7 AP, but they went 3-6 and were not among the 40 teams that drew a vote in the final AP poll. In ’23 they opened 5-0 and rose to #20 AP, but lost 5 of their next 6 before upsetting #9 [Louisville] (Stoops was 2-18 vs top 10 teams prior) and finished 7-6 again.”

Steele expects Kentucky to be better on both sides of the ball

Prior to the 2024 season, Kentucky had appeared in a bowl game in eight consecutive seasons with four wins.

“Kentucky has had just two winning seasons in SEC play since 1977 (both under Stoops, both 5-3). The Vegas Over/Under for Kentucky was 6.5 in ’24. UK opened 1-2 with a blowout loss to South Carolina then beat #6 Ole Miss the highest ranked team they beat on road since 1977 (Penn State) to move to 3-2. UK lost their remaining 6 games vs FBS foes (beat 1-10 Murray State) losing the last 5 by 20 PPG. UK is 2-12 in its last 14 SEC home games! They are 7-18 in the SEC since their 2021 Citrus Bowl win.”

“This year they have 14 returning starters but were -100 mpg in SEC play last year. The Vegas Over Under for the Cats is just 4.5 after their 4-8 year. There are plenty of indicators pointing up, like a +3.0 on my Stock Market indicator, they were -7 TO’s and -3 Net upsets. This team figures to be better on both sides of the ball but not enough to make my Most Improved list.”

Kentucky will open the season against Toledo on August 30th. Its first conference game takes place against Ole Miss on September 6.