Let’s be honest — all the preseason expectations for the 2024 Big 12 season were turned on their heads.

Teams such as Utah and Oklahoma State that were projected to contend for the conference championship finished near the bottom of the league standings, while others such as Arizona State, BYU and Colorado — who had meager expectations — ended up being among the Big 12’s best.

That makes any effort to create Big 12 power rankings at this time of the year seem fruitless, but in spite of that kind of thinking, there’s still something fun in arguing who might control the league this upcoming season.

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With the spring transfer portal window closed, there won’t be a ton of transfer movement between now and the start of the 2025 season. That makes it a perfect time to look at the conference and how transfers could impact the league race this year with a post-spring Big 12 power rankings.

1. Arizona State Sun Devils

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 14th in Big 12, 55th nationally

The Sun Devils will tremendously miss tough-minded running back Cam Skattebo — who seemed to do it all for ASU — but they have key offensive weapons returning in quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson.

It’s fair to expect Leavitt to take another step forward after his first season as a starter, and Tyson is a dangerous receiver. Add in running back transfer Kanye Udoh from Army, and there appear to be several playmakers on offense.

While Arizona State didn’t bring in any transfer rated four stars by 247 Sports, the Sun Devils also didn’t lose any four-star transfers.

Given the Sun Devils’ retention efforts — they have 10 starters back on defense — the defending Big 12 champion remains the team to beat.

2. Iowa State Cyclones

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 15th in Big 12, 59th nationally

The Cyclones didn’t need to rely a ton on the transfer portal — they brought in a league-low eight transfers — but Iowa State’s average rating of 86.75 for its transfer class is second among Big 12 programs, per 247 Sports’ metrics.

The one four-star transfer Iowa State landed was former East Carolina wide receiver Chase Sowell, who was brought in — along with UCF’s Xavier Townsend — to help the Cyclones replace two NFL draft picks in wideouts Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins.

Quarterback Rocco Becht is also back for a roster that sees little turnover and rising expectations after a school-record 11 wins last year.

3. BYU Cougars

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 16th in Big 12, 83rd nationally

Last year, BYU wasn’t extremely active in the transfer portal despite coming off a 5-7 season.

The Cougars instead focused on continuity over quick changes, and it resulted in an 11-win season wherein BYU was oh-so-close to making the Big 12 championship game.

This year, the Cougars have lost some key players to the transfer portal — All-American kick returner/wide receiver Keelan Marion and linebacker Harrison Taggart primary among them — while adding a modest transfer class led by the likes of former Michigan offensive tackle Andrew Gentry, Utah defensive tackle Keanu Tanuvasa and the Bachmeier brothers Hank and Tiger from Stanford.

Former Oklahoma State defensive tackle Justin Kirkland was also brought in alongside Tanuvasa to hopefully shore up a lot of attrition on the defensive line.

There’s some risk with this group playing well together, but also the potential for BYU to cash in again if their worst-ranked Big 12 transfer class properly fills the needs the Cougars had.

For now, it’s safe to think the Cougars will factor in the Big 12 race, but how the new pieces mesh — and quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s potential progression — will determine if the Cougars are serious contenders.

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 1st in Big 12, 2nd nationally

The Red Raiders have gone all-in with the transfer portal.

That influx of talent and change is an enticing reason to vault them up the power rankings, while still warranting enough trepidation that things might never come together fluidly with a transfer-heavy team.

Of Texas Tech’s 21 transfers, 13 are rated four stars by 247 Sports. By comparison, the rest of the Big 12 has 16 total four-star transfers combined.

Former Stanford edge David Bailey headlines the incoming transfer class that focused heavily on revamping a defense that ranked 122nd in FBS in scoring defense (34.8) last season.

5. Kansas State Wildcats

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 13th in Big 12, 54th nationally

The Wildcats have been a model of consistency in the Big 12 in recent years, as they’ve won nine or more games over the past three seasons and eight or more in five of the past six years.

That makes it easy to believe that Kansas State will be a player in the Big 12 race again this year and could again make a run at the league championship.

Dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson returns for his second year as a starter and first under new offensive coordinator Matt Wells, the former Utah State head coach.

Running back Dylan Edwards is also back and should provide a dynamic duo again with Johnson, even with fellow back DJ Giddens off to the NFL.

6. Baylor Bears

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 9th in Big 12, 48th nationally

The Bears ended the 2024 regular season as hot as any Big 12 team — winning six straight games — before losing to LSU in their bowl game.

Combine that with the fact that quarterback Sawyer Robertson captained a potent attack during that run and Dave Aranda’s defense made improvements, and Baylor looks like it is on the right path toward being in the upper tier of the league yet again.

While Baylor’s transfer portal class ranks ninth overall in the Big 12, its 86.5 average player ranking in 247 Sports’ metrics is fourth among conference schools. That includes four-star transfer QB Walker White, giving the Bears a potent signal caller room.

7. Utah Utes

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 7th in Big 12, 39th nationally

The arrival of New Mexico transfer quarterback Devon Dampier and first-year offensive coordinator Jason Beck has created a palpable buzz for the Utes after a forgettable 5-7 season.

The Utes defense ought to be solid-to-dominant yet again — it was what kept Utah in so many games last year, even when the offense was sputtering — but how Utah’s offense is able to come together will determine what Kyle Whittingham’s squad will accomplish in 2025.

Dampier is a dual-threat QB who’s already being projected as one of the best signal callers in the league, and four-star transfer running back Wayshawn Parker is expected to be the team’s leading rusher behind an offensive line that’s in the running to be the best in the country.

Will Utah be able to make a transfer class wherein its average player ranking is 86.25 — fifth-best in the Big 12 — fill the roster’s holes effectively?

If the offense gets humming again, this roster has the potential to be a Big 12 contender and vault up the power rankings quickly. The program’s building blocks and culture — along with a stout defense — are still there from the Utes’ run to back-to-back Pac-12 championships.

8. TCU Horned Frogs

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 12th in Big 12, 52nd nationally

Sonny Dykes’ group looked improved in the back half of the 2024 season — winning six of its final seven games against a majority of bottom-half league teams — and can build off that.

The Horned Frogs don’t have a big transfer class coming in — there are 12 additions thus far — but that group has an 86.08 average player ranking, just below Utah for sixth in the Big 12.

Jordan Dwyer, a four-star wide receiver transfer from Idaho who had 78 catches for 1,192 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, should be a big addition for quarterback Josh Hoover.

9. Colorado Buffaloes

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 2nd in Big 12, 20th nationally

There’s a lot of talent that left Colorado following last season, when the Buffaloes went 9-4 and were one of four Big 12 teams to go 7-2 in league play.

Do-everything Travis Hunter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders headline a group that’s moved on to the NFL, and there’s more wholesale changes coming to Boulder, as the Buffaloes are bringing in 26 transfers, including three four-star guys in 247 Sports’ rankings.

That’s become the norm with Deion Sanders as head coach.

Former Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter is the one taking over for Shedeur Sanders, while safety Noah King is a Class of 2025 four-star prospect who spent the spring at Kansas State and can help anchor the back end of the Colorado defense.

For now, best to keep the expectations more realistic until proven otherwise — though the Buffaloes could be dangerous again.

10. Kansas Jayhawks

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 6th in Big 12, 38th nationally

The Jayhawks were an enigma in 2024. They went into the year with high expectations, stumbled mightily to a 1-5 record midway through the season, then beat multiple top 25 teams in the back half before finishing 5-7.

That makes it hard to trust Kansas going into 2025.

Jalon Daniels is back at quarterback after a rough season, though star back Devin Neal is gone. If Daniels returns to pre-2024 form, Kansas could be dangerous.

The Jayhawks have brought in several defenders in their transfer class, including former South Carolina linebacker Bangally Kamara, a versatile player who’s rated a four-star transfer and played four seasons at Pitt.

11. Oklahoma State Cowboys

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 5th in Big 12, 33rd nationally

The Cowboys dropped off majorly last year, but with Mike Gundy still in charge, let’s assume that Oklahoma State can bounce back a bit this year and compete for the postseason after a forgettable 3-9 campaign.

Oklahoma State has been a model of consistency under Gundy, but 2024 rocked that narrative, and now 38 transfers are coming to Stillwater.

While that ensures there will be plenty of new names at OSU, there are a couple that will be familiar in Utah circles — former BYU signee Carson Suesue is headed to the Cowboys as a linebacker, as is former Lehi High tight end Grayson Brousseau, who spent last year at Utah State.

12. West Virginia Mountaineers

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 4th in Big 12, 31st nationally

If Oklahoma State’s 38 transfers sounds like a lot, check out the list of incoming transfers at West Virginia.

The Mountaineers have a league-high 51 players transferring to the school as Rich Rodriguez returns to take over the program.

While Rodriguez’s return sparks some optimism, that amount of turnover makes it difficult to believe the team can build some chemistry this year.

For that reason, it’s safer to keep expectations low for West Virginia, whose average player rating of 85.45 for transfers, per 247 Sports, is only ahead of BYU in the Big 12.

13. Arizona Wildcats

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 10th in Big 12, 50th nationally

Like West Virginia, Arizona is bringing in a collection of less-heralded transfers, though at 26 incoming players, that’s nearly half as many as the Mountaineers.

The Wildcats’ incoming group has an 85.50 average player rating, third-worst in the Big 12 per 247 Sports metrics.

The first year under head coach Brent Brennan saw Arizona take a significant step back as a program, and he’s got quite an uphill climb ahead of him. Yes, quarterback Noah Fifita returns, but the Wildcats have depth needs to try to become competitive in the Big 12.

14. Houston Cougars

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 3rd in Big 12, 28th nationally

The Cougars’ transfer haul has been solid this offseason, ranking third among Big 12 teams and seventh in the conference in average player rating (86.00), per 247 Sports.

Houston, though, was hit hard in its secondary by losing four-star transfers AJ Haulcy and Jeremiah Wilson to the portal. Haulcy landed at LSU and Wilson at Florida State.

Still, the addition of former Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman brings some hope that a moribund Cougars offense can be turned around.

15. Cincinnati Bearcats

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 11th in Big 12, 51st nationally

The Bearcats are having a tough time adjusting to the power conference level.

While Cincinnati has quarterback Brendan Sorsby and star defensive tackle Dontay Corleone back, the Bearcats are still trying to build around them.

At least they were able to reel in a four-star transfer talent in offensive tackle Joe Cotton.

For now, Cincinnati is just trying to get itself bowl eligible for the first time as a Big 12 member after it spoiled that chance last year when it lost five straight to end the year and finished 5-7.

16. UCF Knights

247 Sports transfer portal rankings: 8th in Big 12, 42nd nationally

The Knights will look vastly different next season, and that starts at the top.

Guz Malzahn left his post as UCF’s head coach to become the offensive coordinator at Florida State, and for new head coach Scott Frost, that means a rebuilding project in Orlando.

It will include 40 transfers, the second-most in the Big 12, and retooling on both sides of the ball.

Sure, the Knights could surprise, but for now, they bring up the rear in the conference.