With Sunday’s loss to the Chicago Cubs, the Cincinnati Reds sit at 29-31 on the season in fourth place, 8 1/2 games behind the first-place Cubs, 4 1/2 games behind the second-place St. Louis Cardinals and three games behind the third-place Milwaukee Brewers.

Fourth place is hardly where the expectations were for this team coming into the season, and if the Reds continue to tread water while the Cubs and Cardinals surge as June turns to July, the Reds could turn into sellers at the July 31 trade deadline.

It seems unlikely the Reds would part with their best trade chips, shortstop Elly De La Cruz or right-hander Hunter Greene, with both under team control through at least 2029 (De La Cruz through the arbitration process and Greene is signed through 2028 with a team option for 2029). The Reds seem more inclined to build around that pair than move either in the immediate future.

So, that means for the most part, the Reds’ trade pieces are in one of two groups — players who will be a free agent after the 2025 season and those with another year of team control through the 2026 season.

Here are the Reds on expiring contracts (or with team/mutual options), with their 2025 salary in parentheses: RHP Nick Martinez ($21,050,000), LHP Taylor Rogers ($12 million, but the Giants paid half of that), RHP Emilio Pagán ($8 million), OF Austin Hays ($4 million with a mutual option), LHP Brent Suter ($2.25 million with a club option), RHP Scott Barlow ($2.5 million with a club option) and 2B/OF Garrett Hampson ($1.5 million).

Of those, Martinez’s versatility and performance would make him attractive to a contender looking to bolster its rotation for the homestretch with the backup plan of a trusted, experienced reliever.

Bullpen arms like Rogers, Pagán, Suter and Barlow have their appeal, but would bring back less than Martinez.

Hays’ performance this season would make him an attractive trade candidate, but he’s on his third IL stint this season, which could give a team pause.

The second group would be players who have another year of team control. Extra team control helps with the return in a trade, but it also hurts the team in 2026. Reds who are scheduled for free agency following the 2026 season are IF Jeimer Candelario, RHP Brady Singer, C Tyler Stephenson, 2B Gavin Lux, OF Jake Fraley, IF Santiago Espinal and C Austin Wynns.

Tyler Stephenson is hitting .226/.313/.429 with four homers this season. (Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)

Of those, the player who would get the most in return would be Stephenson. The Reds signed Jose Trevino to an extension through the 2027 season this spring, but that was to be the backup. In the right package, it could make sense to move Stephenson, but it would be difficult to replace him for next season.

Lux and Singer could interest teams, while Fraley, Espinal and Wynns would draw attention. Wynns is the team’s third catcher, but if there is any doubt he’d be claimed on waivers, the Los Angeles Dodgers claimed former Reds catcher Chuckie Robinson last week. If Wynns were to be put on waivers, it’s unlikely he’d last long.

Candelario has a club option for 2027, but his performance since signing a three-year, $45 million deal would make him difficult to trade unless the Reds took on a large portion of the money remaining on his contract, which includes $12 million in 2026 and a $3 million buyout for the 2027 club option.

If the Reds find themselves as buyers? Well, a lot would have to go right in the near future, and it’s tough to know what the needs would be at that point (beyond bullpen help — every team needs bullpen help at the deadline.)

Explaining the Díaz deal

If you’re not subscribed to our wonderful baseball newsletter, The Windup, you should be. But head Winder-upper Levi Weaver asked me Thursday night to explain the Alexis Díaz deal from the Reds’ perspective. Here’s what ran in the newsletter:

The short answer is it saves money. Díaz is making $4.5 million this year and has two years of arbitration left. With what the Reds have seen this year, the team didn’t believe he could help them at the big-league level this season. That means they’d also likely non-tender him after the season. If, in their eyes, Díaz wasn’t going to help them this year and wouldn’t be around next year, why pay him to pitch for the Louisville Bats?

He continued to struggle in Triple A, where he had walked as many batters as he’d struck out (eight) since being optioned. He no longer had value to the Reds, and this was as good of a deal as they could get for a team willing to take on the contract.

For the Reds, the only downside is looking bad if he rebounds, and fear of embarrassment isn’t a good reason not to make a move.

But that’s not everything. While all the headlines included the fact that Díaz was a former All-Star, it should be noted that he hasn’t performed at an All-Star level since the 2023 All-Star Game. Díaz went to Seattle in July of 2023 with 26 saves and a 2.04 ERA. The first half of that season, he struck out 37.4 percent of the batters he faced and walked just 11.7 percent of the batters he faced. Since then, he’s put up a 4.72 ERA and a 5.52 xFIP. His strikeout rate dropped to 20.7 percent and his walk rate increased to 13.3 percent. That started from the second half of 2023, when he had an ERA of 4.61 and strikeout and walk rates of 20.3 and 13.8, respectively. It’s been around the same ever since. That’s just simply not worth the money.

There’s a chance the change of scenery and voices help Díaz and that the Reds end up looking bad. But if that happens, it probably wouldn’t have happened here.

Miley opts out

Lefty Wade Miley opted out of his minor-league deal with the team Sunday and became a free agent. Miley, 38, was coming off Tommy John surgery and had made seven starts between High-A Dayton and Triple-A Louisville, going 1-2 with an 8.84 ERA. He struck out 15, walked four and hit three over 19 1/3 innings, allowing 32 hits and 19 runs. He allowed a pair of runs on six hits and three walks over five innings Friday for Louisville.

As an Article XX(B) free-agent signee in winter, Miley had the opportunity to opt out on June 1 if he was not on the 40-man roster. The Reds have an open spot on their 40-man roster, but Miley had communicated his desire to start, and with no spot in the rotation, the Reds didn’t put him on the 40-man, allowing him to enter free agency.

Two other minor leaguers, lefty reliever Joe La Sorsa and right-hander Aaron Wilkerson, have upward mobility clauses in their minor-league deals. Teams can claim either La Sorsa or Wilkerson within 24 hours, but the Reds can block such a move by adding the selected player to the 40-man roster. If either player is unclaimed, they can remain with the Reds organization.

La Sorsa, 27, has appeared in 21 games for the Bats, going 2-1 with a 3.92 ERA. He has 14 strikeouts and 14 walks in 20 2/3 innings, but batters are hitting just .181 against him, with lefties hitting .179 and right-handed hitters hitting .182.

In 11 starts for Louisville, the 36-year-old Wilkerson is 4-1 with a 3.84 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 52 batters in 58 2/3 innings while walking just nine.

The week that was

The Reds went .500 on the road, winning two of three in Kansas City against the Royals and winning the series opener against the Chicago Cubs before dropping the next two. The Reds were shut out for the ninth time this season Saturday, tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the most shutout losses this season. No team has been shut out more than the Reds (25 times) over the past two seasons.

The week ahead

The Reds return home to face the Milwaukee Brewers, a team they have had little success against. The Reds haven’t taken a season series from the Brewers since 2020. Since 2021, the Reds are 23-45 against the Brewers and 8-25 against Milwaukee at Great American Ball Park. The Reds’ last series victory over the Brewers at GABP came in May 2022. After an off day Thursday, the Arizona Diamondbacks come to GABP for three games.

Injury updates

• 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (low back inflammation) has hits in six of his seven games during his rehab assignment with Louisville, going 9-for-24 with three doubles, a triple and a pair of home runs. Encarnacion-Strand was 3-for-4 with two doubles Friday and 2-for-4 with a homer Saturday.

• IF Jeimer Candelario (lumbar spine strain) is expected to begin his rehab assignment Monday in the Arizona Complex League.

• OF Austin Hays (left foot contusion) went on the IL this week after fouling a ball off his foot in Wednesday’s game in Kansas City.

• IF Cam Collier (left thumb injury) has played nine games in the Arizona Complex League, going 12-for-30 with three doubles and a home run. He’s also walked as many times as he’s struck out (seven).

Minor-league report

• Triple-A Louisville (24-32): IF Levi Jordan went 0-for-4 Sunday, seeing his 11-game hitting streak snapped. Jordan had exactly one hit in each of the previous 11 games. On the season, he’s hitting .228/.309/.371 with three home runs.

• Double-A Chattanooga (24-23): This isn’t intentionally a Chase Burns update category, and it will cease to be when he’s no longer the most interesting thing on the team. But … on Saturday, Burns went six innings for the first time and didn’t allow a run on two hits, a walk and four strikeouts. It was the lowest strikeout total of his professional career. In his seven Double-A starts, he’s 5-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, with 49 strikeouts and four walks over 35 innings.

• High-A Dayton (17-34): In the six-game series against West Michigan last week, IF Leo Balcazar went 10-for-28 (.357) with a pair of homers and a double with just three strikeouts. On the season, the 20-year-old from Venezuela is hitting .270/.355/.402 with five homers, 37 strikeouts and 21 walks.

• Class-A Daytona (22-29): C Alfredo Duno hit .284/.448/.432 in May with a homer, a triple and six doubles. Duno struck out 24 times, but earned 21 walks. He hit .227/.341/.453 in April. Duno started June out right, finishing Sunday’s game with two homers while going 3-for-4 with five RBIs. He’s now hitting .268/.406/.490 on the season.

(Top photo of Nick Martinez: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)