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ESPN predicts SEC order of finish for 2025 college football season

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The 2025 college football season is only a few months away now. With that, ESPN has predicted the order of finish across the SEC.

ESPN’s FPI metric, which is used to measure team strength and is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance throughout the season, was what ESPN leaned on for these predictions. It assigned each SEC team a percent chance to win the conference and then ranked them based on that.

The SEC is a conference that expects to get multiple teams to the College Football Playoff. So, being at the top of the conference and competitive is an indicator that teams could be national championship contenders. So, with that in mind, here’s a look at ESPN’s order of finish prediction for the SEC.

The Texas Longhorns made a statement in their first season in the SEC, going to the SEC Championship and their second straight College Football Playoff. There, they’d fall short and lose the SEC Championship to Georgia before getting knocked out of the CFP by Ohio State. Still, expectations are clearly high for the Longhorns going into the 2025 season.

Much of those expectations come from new starting quarterback Arch Manning. After two seasons of primarily being the backup to Quinn Ewers, the former five-star recruit and top-rated prospect is going to get his chance to run the offense. Along with an incredibly talented team around him, it’s not a surprise expectations are high in Austin.

Georgia Bulldogs SEC Championship
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – DECEMBER 03: Head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs celebrate with the trophy after defeating the LSU Tigers in the SEC Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 03, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Georgia Bulldogs return as the defending SEC Champions from last season. It was their third conference title since head coach Kirby Smart took over and their fourth straight appearance in the SEC Championship Game. From there, they earned a bye to the College Football Playoff before getting bumped out in the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame.

Next season, expectations are high once again for Georgia. The roster is still incredibly talented from top to bottom, but particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The only major question for Smart and the Bulldogs has become the quarterback position. There, it’s an open battle for the starting job to replace Carson Beck, who transferred out of the school.

The Alabama Crimson Tide are heading into their second season under head coach Kalen DeBoer. He’d go 9-4 in his first season there with some massive highs, like beating eventual SEC Champion Georgia, and some lows, like tough losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma on the road. Those losses were enough to keep the Crimson Tide on the outside looking in at the CFP.

Now, two years removed from the Nick Saban era, the Crimson Tide are going to continue to take on Kalen DeBoer’s image. A major part of that is, again, the change in quarterback. Jalen Milroe is on to the NFL, opening up a quarterback competition that appears to be led by Ty Simpson. Making the right choice there is going to go a massive way in figuring out the 2025 season.

In 2024, the Texas A&M Aggies exceeded most expectations. It was the first season for head coach Mike Elko in College Station. Under him, the Aggies would go 8-5 but were competitive for the SEC late in the season. However, only winning one out of their five final games ended up costing the Aggies.

The goal in year two for Elko is to avoid a similar late season collapse. Solidifying the quarterback position, which Marcel Reed is expected to lead, is going to be key. He’s hoping to break out after a solid 2024 campaign. That, along with a defense ready to take a step forward, should help get Texas A&M back to the top of the conference standings.

Tennessee Volunteers, Smoky
Tennessee Volunteers, Smoky – © Jamar Coach/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Tennessee Volunteers have found consistent success under head coach Josh Heupel that the program had gone a long time without. That saw the Volunteers go to the CFP in 2024, after winning double-digit games for the second time in three seasons. Now, the next goal has to be winning the SEC for the first time since 1998.

Of course, perhaps no SEC team had as dramatic an offseason as Tennessee. Last season’s starting quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, and the school had a standoff over NIL that ended with his transfer to UCLA. That, ironically, led to Tennessee bringing in former UCLA quarterback Joey Aguilar. It’s a difficult spot to be in, especially with plenty of other roster turnover, but the Volunteers still have good odds to win the conference from ESPN.

When the LSU Tigers hired Brian Kelly, it was to win SEC Championships and go to the College Football Playoff. That hasn’t happened yet in three previous seasons with the program. 2024 saw the Tigers end up going 9-4, the worst season they’ve had by record since Kelly got to Baton Rouge. Still, there is hope that LSU can compete again in 2025.

One of the biggest strengths for LSU in 2025 is that, among the teams toward the top of ESPN’s predicted order of finish, they’re returning a veteran quarterback. Garrett Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns last season. If he can clean up the 12 interceptions, he’s expected to be a Heisman contender and potentially a top draft pick. With talent all over the roster, the Tigers will go however far he takes them.

Since getting to Oxford, head coach Lane Kiffin has had Ole Miss consistently competitive. That’s included double-digit win seasons in three of the last four years. Still, they haven’t yet played for the SEC Championship under Kiffin. Ole Miss, as a program, hasn’t even won the conference since 1963. So, it’s been a long time coming to try and win the next one.

Quarterback isn’t often a concern under Kiffin given his offensive pedigree. At the same time, it’s a question for Ole Miss again in 2025 with Jaxson Dart moving on to the NFL. Austin Simmons is going to be the presumed starter next season, and if he takes over in stride, there’s enough talent around him to be competitive. Growing pains, however, could lead to issues in the incredibly talented SEC.

Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Hugh Freeze, Auburn – © Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Auburn Tigers have been an interesting team since the end of the Gus Malzahn era. First, the program turned to Bryan Harsin, but after a disastrous and brief tenure, they turned the reigns over to Hugh Freeze for a rebuild. Through two seasons, it’s been a slow rebuild, going 11-14 and having trouble getting the offense going.

Recruiting has been good under Freeze, both in the portal and high school ranks. So, going into year three, there is an expectation that the Tigers are able to take another step forward. A major part of that is going to, of course, fall on the shoulders of quarterback Jackson Arnold. Once a highly-touted recruit, he transferred from Oklahoma following a difficult season in 2024, looking to rejuvenate his career.

The South Carolina Gamecocks found themselves on the edge of the College Football Playoff last season. That was on the back of an excellent defensive line and a breakout season for quarterback LaNorris Sellers. With that, expectations are high from fans to be competitive in the SEC next season and maybe even make it to their first Playoff.

Expectations are high now, though, and they won’t be catching anyone by surprise. So, the Gamecocks not only need to live up to those, they’re going to need to do it while getting everyone’s best shot. Much of that is going to come down to if the incoming transfers complement the roster well enough to meet those expectations.

It was a difficult first season in the SEC for Oklahoma. Despite some positives, particularly late in the season, it was a frustrating year. The offense, in particular, struggled, benching Jackson Arnold and trying to go a new direction on that side of the ball. Things never fully clicked, though, and a program that expects to be Playoff caliber will be looking for better in 2025.

Head coach Brent Venables completely redid the offensive side of the ball. New offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle is bringing his own quarterback, John Mateer. How those two handle the transition will be massive. It’s also important that, as head coach Brent Venables goes back to calling plays defensively, they’re able to balance that focus throughout games.

Billy Napier, DJ Lagway
Photo by Doug Engle / USA TODAY Sports

Going into the 2024 season, Florida head coach Billy Napier was firmly on the hot seat. Then, throughout the season, the Gators showed plenty of improvement, especially when quarterback DJ Lagway took over. Things still weren’t perfect by any means, but it was enough to get another season.

There aren’t real expectations for the Gators to compete for an SEC Championship in 2025. There are, however, expectations they take another step forward with DJ Lagway at quarterback for the Gators. Around him, there’s plenty of question marks. Florida is a young team, after all. Still, they’ve recruited well and have plenty of raw talent.

The Missouri Tigers have often caught teams by surprise in recent seasons. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has now won double-digit games two seasons in a row. That’s made them competitive in the SEC, though it’s obvious that ESPN is predicting them to take a bit of a step back in 2025.

The Tigers are going to be leaning on some transfers next season. At quarterback, Beau Pribula comes in from Penn State. Then, running back Ahmad Hardy is coming over from ULM. Both seem to fit the system well but come with question marks. Answer those, and Missouri could be competitive again.

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming off a 7-6 season. The challenge is that the Razorbacks can’t afford to take a step back from that mark in the SEC, which has depth that is incredibly difficult to compete against week in and week out. Otherwise, head coach Sam Pittman could be looking at a potential spot on the hot seat.

The major concern for Arkansas is the offensive line. That unit hasn’t given the solid skill players time or the ability to properly run the offense. Without fixing that, it’s going to be a long and difficult season. However, if they do fix that, then the Razorbacks have the ability to surprise some folks.

Mark Stoops - Mont Dawson, Kentucky Sports Radio
Mark Stoops – Mont Dawson, Kentucky Sports Radio

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops is now the longest-tenured coach in the SEC. That comes as he failed to lead the Wildcats to a bowl game in 2024 for the first time since 2015. That came amid some offensive issues that they’ll need to address to bounce back in 2025.

Kentucky once again hit the portal for its next quarterback, bringing in Zach Calzada. He has experience and SEC experience but wasn’t great in his time at this level. The Wildcats will need him to be a success, but they’ll also need help in several other key spots. Part of that is getting more physical. Otherwise, it seems like a tough spot to be in.

Vanderbilt is very rarely predicted to win the SEC. Still, coming off a 7-6 season and their first bowl game since 2018, the vibes are good in Nashville. That was a magical season at times under quarterback Diego Pavia, particularly in their upset over Alabama.

Pavia has received a waiver to return in 2025 and hopes to continue some of that magic next year. He’s a special player to rally around, but will definitely need some help. In particular, some help along the line of scrimmage would go a long way to getting the Commodores back to a bowl game.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs round out ESPN’s predictions for the SEC, coming in at 16th. That came after they went 2-10 in their first season under head coach Jeff Lebby. It’s a complete rebuild in Starkville, and clearly, ESPN thinks it’s going to take a little while to get more competitive. Still, last place is a difficult place to land.

The hope is Blake Shapen can be healthy and help lead the offense, which he flashed the ability to do in 2024 before his injury. Still, they got hit hard by the portal this offseason, and are thin at wide receiver and across the defense. It’s going to be hard to make up for all that they’re missing along the roster in the conference they play in.



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College Football TV Ratings: Army-Navy Game averages 7.84 million viewers

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Once again in its standalone window, America’s Game came down to the wire last week. Ultimately, Navy got a second straight victory over Army, and it became CBS’ most-watched college football game of the season.

An average of 7.84 million people watched as Navy came away with the victory at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. While it’s a 17% decrease from last year’s 9.4 million viewers – the best since at least 1990 – it’s still the second-best viewership for the game since 2018, according to Sports Business Journal’s Austin Karp.

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Last year’s Army-Navy game topped the previous high mark of 8.45 million viewers in 1992. In addition, it tops CBS’ slate of games this year, beating out the 5.6 million viewers who watched Indiana at Oregon in Week 7, according to data compiled by On3.

This year’s Army-Navy game also marked the last for CBS analyst Gary Danielson in the booth. He has worked 17 matchups between the two programs and will get ready for retirement following the Sun Bowl later this month. Charles Davis is set to join Brad Nessler in CBS’ lead booth starting next season.

With the victory, Navy extended its advantage in the all-time series against Army, which dates back to 1890. The Midshipmen have an all-time 64-55-7 record against the Black Knights.

How it happened: Navy defeats Army

Navy struck first in the first quarter of last week’s game, taking a 7-0 lead on a Blake Horvath touchdown. But Army responded with 13 points in the second quarter, including a rushing touchdown from Cale Hellums, to take the lead into halftime.

The two teams traded field goals in the third quarter as Army took a 16-10 lead into the final 15 minutes. That’s when Navy completed the comeback as Eli Heidenreich caught the 8-yard touchdown pass from Horvath, putting the Midshipmen back on top, 17-16. That held as the final, giving Navy a second straight win over Army in the historic game.

Horvath led the charge for Navy, rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on the ground while adding 82 passing yards to go with the touchdown pass to Heidenrich. On the Army side, Hellums had 100 rush yards and a touchdown to go with 82 passing yards.

Both Army and Navy are now getting ready for their respective bowl games. The Midshipmen will head to the Liberty Bowl on Jan. 2, 2026 against Cincinnati while the Black Knights will square off against UConn in the Fenway Bowl on Dec. 27.



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Ohio State QB Julian Sayin Announces NIL News Before College Football Playoff

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Julian Sayin is looking to lead the Ohio State Buckeyes to the national title alongside several other stars like wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Ohio State heads into the College Football Playoff with one of the best rosters in the country, starring Sayin and Smith along with wide receiver Carnell Tate, safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Arvell Reese.

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They’re heading into the playoffs as the No. 2 seed after losing to Indiana in the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes will have a bye week to begin the CFP.

Other teams that will benefit from the bye week include Indiana, Texas Tech and Georgia.

During his time off, Sayin shared some exciting news off the field. The Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback has partnered with Wingstop and Dr Pepper in his latest NIL deal.

“Postseason calls for big plays with @drpepper and @wingstop, had to get the play card out,” Sayin posted.

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Stars Stay, Others Head to Portal

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College Football’s QB Carousel: Stars Stay, Others Head to Portal



































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Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion has ‘not made a decision’ regarding future

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Dec. 16, 2025, 5:06 a.m. CT

Texas A&M’s 2025 offense finished the regular season ranked 19th nationally, while starting quarterback Marcel Reed threw for a career high 2,932 yards and 25 touchdowns, with 13 going to star wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, who completely rejuvenated a passing attack that failed to move the needle in key games down the stretch last season.

While Craver is expected to return next season for his all-important junior year, Concepcion has a choice to make regarding his future, choosing between a final year in College Station or declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft, where he is expected to be a first or second-round selection.

Whatever choice he makes is entirely up to him and his family, and while those of us in the media have written numerous articles about his draft standing, returning for his senior season could benefit his NFL future. Still, Concepcion is as mature as they come and is entirely focused on facing the Miami Hurricanes this Saturday during the first round of the College Football Playoff.





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Josh Pate defends Joel Klatt amid G5 backlash, proposes second tier to College Football Playoff

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FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt found himself in a social media firestorm after comments he made about the Group of Five on a podcast appearance on Next Round Live. Clips of that interview quickly went viral with short snippets of some of the quotes.

The gist of those snippets suggested that Klatt was anti-G5, to the point of wanting the G5 kicked out of the College Football Playoff. Klatt intimated that the only thing keeping the G5 in the playoff currently is the threat of litigation.

College football analyst Josh Pate had his own thoughts on Joel Klatt’s take. He mostly came to the defense of the suddenly targeted analyst.

Pate first played a couple clips from Klatt’s appearance in their entirety. That offered more full context.

“Some of that was insane, I’m going to grant you that,” Pate said of Klatt’s points. “I just want to say the foundation of it I at least understand. The foundation of it is sound. Not all the parts of it. The foundation of it is sound.

“Couple of quotes there. No. 1, the G5 is in the College Football Playoff to avoid litigation is basically true.”

Pate lambasted the use of quote edits in condensing Joel Klatt’s much larger point into a few soundbites. He tried to explain how that’s misleading to his viewers.

“You know sometimes how you see a snapshot or a small soundbite of something and you get outraged by it and then you go on to learn the context of it two weeks later and you’re like, ‘Wow, I probably shouldn’t have gotten as outraged as I did over that,’ Pate said. “That is what is happening to Klatt. Admittedly he brought a lot of this on himself. …

“Now, what you probably saw was you probably saw quote edits like this or quote graphics like this. And if you’re listening on podcast just imagine scrolling through your social feed and there’s a picture of Klatt, looks like he’s somewhere sunny and happy and there’s a quote at the top, and it says, quote, ‘We don’t want Cinderellas. We want the best teams playing each other at the end. It’s the dumbest tournament and the least fair tournament in all of sports.’”

That part from Joel Klatt, obviously, was what many detractors latched onto. But it doesn’t take away from Klatt’s overall point about the G5, Pate pointed out.

So all the moaning over James Madison being in the playoffs is for naught. That’s just the way the current structure is set up.

“They are present in the playoff, they’re granted an auto bid in the playoff because if they are not then lawsuits will be filed immediately,” Pate said. “So that part’s accurate.

“Now whether or not you think it’s morally sound that they’re included in the playoff, that’s your own opinion. He’s got his, I’ve got mine, you’ve got yours. But he is right. Because in no other merit-based world where we just judged these teams on a static scale of quality, of resources and therefore what you do with the resources, and the results on the field and strength of schedule, in no world would James Madison be in the playoff. But the parameters of the playoff right now are that we take the five highest-ranked conference champs. So by every current rule James Madison is in the playoff and should be in the playoff. I don’t disagree with that. Tulane is in the playoff and should be in the playoff. I don’t disagree with the structure. I don’t disagree with the body of the playoff this year based on the current rules.”

So what’s the solution? Well, Joel Klatt also offered an answer for that. It just didn’t happen to go viral with the other stuff.

Klatt believes the G5 should effectively break off from the power conferences and host its own playoff. It would be a playoff tier between the FCS and the FBS.

“That’s been the same point that’s been made on my show,” Pate said. “So you notice if you really hated the G5 you’d just say, ‘Piss on the G5.’ That’s not what he did, despite the fact that that part didn’t get shared widely and it’s not what I’ve ever done on this show.

“Any time you have a problem with something, you ought to have a solution for it. So if your problem is, ‘Man, it makes little sense that we’ve got 136 teams pretending to play the same caliber of the sport’ you need to have a solution. That solution he just presented is the same one we’ve shared on this show, and that is a G5 playoff.”



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How NIL has transformed Ohio State’s recruiting from star-chasing to strategic roster building

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COLUMBUS, Ohio — The days of simply collecting as many five-star talents as possible in college football recruiting are over.

In a revealing Buckeye Talk podcast episode, Ohio State analysts Stephen Means and Andrew Gillis detailed how the program has shifted to a more sophisticated “roster construction” approach that mirrors NFL team building more than traditional college recruiting.

“I think that because the financial aspect has come into this but also just logical roster building that has become more of a focal point than star, star, star, star, stars,” explained Stephen Means. “Because for a long time, college football was like, get as much talent as you humanly can, develop it, cuz you were living in a world where the top 1% of college football had all the talent. And that’s not true anymore.”

This fundamental shift in philosophy is perhaps most evident in how Gillis described Ohio State’s running back recruiting needs for the 2027 class. While five-star David Gabriel Georgees tops their board, the approach is more nuanced than just stacking elite talent.

“If they got three five stars running backs, the odds that we got on this podcast and said that’s actually probably not that good is higher than it might seem because we were saying why is your asset management this? Like because hey, look at your your receiver recruiting was down. You couldn’t have spent some of that money on a receiver,” Gillis explained.

The financial component of recruiting has transformed how Ohio State approaches each position group and recruiting class. It’s no longer just about who’s the best player available, but whether investing heavily in one position might shortchange another.

“It is a math equation. It is a money equation at this point. You’re not going to go get three five stars at running back in a single class,” Gillis emphasized.

Means further elaborated on how NIL money has forced this change: “You can’t pay a fivestar recruit, fivestar recruit money and then have the guy sitting on the bench because there’s another guy with there’s only so much money to go around.”

This strategic approach has Ohio State looking at players through different lenses: “ready to go” immediate contributors (typically five-stars and top-100 recruits), “developmental” prospects (usually ranked 200-350 nationally), and “depth” pieces who might be ranked lower but fill specific roles.

The analysts identified several instances where this approach is evident in Ohio State’s 2027 planning. At quarterback, they’re content with a developmental prospect in Brady Edmonds rather than chasing another five-star. At wide receiver, despite already having five-star Jir Brown committed, they believe Ohio State needs another elite receiver plus two depth pieces to properly structure the room.

“Now we are talking about roster construction,” Means said. “And the reason why we structured it this way is okay, they went and got a devel they have a developmental quarterback in 2027. They probably need a ready to go quarterback in 2028 and they probably need a depth quarterback in 2029. And the cycle continues, right?”

This staggered approach ensures Ohio State will have players at different stages of development at every position, creating a sustainable pipeline of talent ready to contribute when needed.

“Everybody everybody’s running the same race, but they can’t be running it at the same pace or you’re not going to have a team to field every single year,” Means added.

The conversation revealed how Ohio State’s recruiting approach now more closely resembles NFL roster management, with considerations for “salary cap” (NIL budget), positional value, and development timelines all factoring into decisions that previously might have been simply about collecting the highest-ranked players available.

As college football continues to evolve in the NIL era, this strategic roster construction philosophy may become the new standard for elite programs looking to maintain sustainable success.

Here’s the podcast for this week:



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