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NIL

Florida gave Billy Napier everything he asked for and got .500 football in return

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Scott Stricklin thought Billy Napier would get Florida off the rollercoaster. 

“Since we won our last national championship, we’ve had years where we’ve had some good success — high-level success,” Stricklin told me in spring 2023 for a story that appeared in The Athletic. “But we have been incredibly erratic with some incomprehensible lows that you wouldn’t expect the University of Florida to have.”

After Urban Meyer left Gainesville following the 2010 season, Florida had highs. It won the SEC East three times and finished with double-digit victories four times. But the dips were shocking. Will Muschamp’s Gators went 4-8 in 2013 and lost to then-FCS Georgia Southern. Jim McElwain’s Gators were 3-4 when McElwain was fired following a loss to Georgia in 2017. Dan Mullen’s 2021 team was 5-6 when Mullen was fired.

Stricklin wanted Florida football to feel less like a thrill ride and more like a ski lift — a calm, deliberate, steady ride to the top. That’s why he hired Napier and effectively gave him a blank check to hire the kind of staff Steve Spurrier, Ron Zook, Urban Meyer, Muschamp, McElwain and Mullen never could. Napier was also the beneficiary of the $85 million Heavener Football Training Center, a palatial training complex that Gators brass started designing when McElwain was still the coach. 

But Napier never delivered that steady climb. On Sunday, he was fired after leading Florida to a 22-23 record in three-plus seasons. Instead, all the issues that plagued Florida early in Napier’s tenure — a lack of on-field discipline, plodding, predictable offensive playcalling — still hamstrung the Gators in his fourth season. Despite seriously upgrading the talent on the roster that Mullen left behind, Napier never came close to winning like Mullen did in his first three seasons.

Napier promised a recruiting operation that would blanket the nation and compete with the likes of Alabama’s Nick Saban and Georgia’s Kirby Smart for players. Napier had resurrected his career working for Saban (and with Smart) after getting fired as Clemson’s offensive coordinator following the 2010 season, and Napier dropped his share of Sabanisms as he built a jumbo-sized staff that mimicked Alabama and Georgia’s in volume but not in effectiveness.

Every year, Saban evaluated every position in the organization and made clear to every staffer what that person’s role was and — most important — what it wasn’t. At Napier’s Florida, staffers weren’t always sure who did what. Plus, Napier’s distribution of then-limited on-field assistant coaching positions early in his tenure was head-scratching at times. Before the NCAA lifted rules limiting the number of on-field assistants before the 2024 season, Napier used analysts for the roles of quarterbacks coach and special teams coordinator. Those coaches weren’t officially allowed to coach players in practices or games, but Napier considered it the best use of resources.

So when Florida could never seem to put the correct number of players on the field for field goal block or when the field goal team ran onto the field while the Gators were trying to run a fourth-down play against Arkansas in 2023 — resulting in an illegal substitution penalty that ultimately cost Florida that game — it was a direct result of those decisions by Napier. And even though some of the staff names changed, the issues never got cleaned up. In a loss at Miami on Sept. 20, Florida sent out 10 men to attempt to block a Miami field goal. In Napier’s final game, a 23-21 win against Mississippi State on Saturday, putting 12 men on the field for a fourth-quarter two-point conversion nearly cost Florida a win.

Napier also presided over the single dumbest recruitment of the name, image and likeness era. Florida signed quarterback Jaden Rashada in December 2022 after flipping his commitment from Miami the previous month, but Rashada never arrived on campus. A since-defunct collective attached to Florida had signed Rashada to a deal that purported to be worth up to $13.1 million over four years. When the booster who was supposed to fund the deal balked at the amount, the contract was terminated. Ultimately, Florida released Rashada from his letter-of-intent. He then went to Arizona State and Georgia and now plays for FCS school Sacramento State. Rashada is currently suing Napier in federal court alleging fraud. Napier, through his attorney, has denied Rashada’s claims.

The episode embarrassed Florida and called into question Napier’s ability to evaluate quarterbacks. But Napier rebounded on that front as the NIL era evolved. He did bring in better talent, and the crown jewel was class of 2024 quarterback D.J. Lagway.

But the improved roster never produced better results because Napier refused to let someone else handle offensive play-calling even after he proved ineffective at the role in his first three seasons. Hiring an OC was supposed to be a condition of Napier’s continued employment when Stricklin decided to keep him in November 2024. However, when Napier declined to hire a playcalling OC between the 2024 and 2025 seasons, his message was clear: He would stand or fall doing it his way.

At the time, there was reason for optimism that it might work. After a rough start to 2024 during which the decision was made to fire Napier, only to be reconsidered, the Gators rallied around Napier and then-freshman Lagway, who was forced into the starting role when Graham Mertz tore an ACL at Tennessee. After Lagway led Florida to late-season upsets of LSU and Ole Miss, it seemed the Gators had finally turned a corner under Napier.

Florida staffers convinced defensive tackle Caleb Banks to put off the NFL for one more year. They returned Jake Slaughter, who looked at the end of 2024 like the best center in college football. Tailback Jadan Baugh and linebacker Myles Graham looked ready to make big leaps as sophomores. 

And of course, former five-star recruit Lagway had offered a tantalizing sample of how high his ceiling could be. But Lagway’s offseason was the first warning sign that the promise shown at the end of 2024 would never be fulfilled. Lagway had a nagging shoulder injury dating back to the 2024 season-opener that forced him to stop throwing for most of the offseason. He didn’t throw in spring practice, and various other injuries popped up and limited him throughout the summer.

Still, optimism remained. That all came crashing down week two in an 18-16 loss to USF. The Gators couldn’t control the line of scrimmage, and Lagway just looked rusty. The following week at LSU, Banks came back from a foot injury only to be lost again late in the game, and five Lagway interceptions spoiled an excellent performance from the defense in a 20-10 loss.

Against Miami, Lagway threw for an abysmal 61 yards and the Gators got dominated on both lines of scrimmage in a 26-7 loss. Miami’s Mario Cristobal, who was hired the same week as Napier, seemed to have his team ready to compete for a College Football Playoff berth and a national title. Meanwhile, Florida remained stuck exactly where it was when Napier arrived.

A home win against Texas was bittersweet; it ultimately only served to remind everyone what could have been had the Gators’ on-field management matched their roster construction. A loss at Texas A&M and the win against Mississippi State — a maddening reminder that nothing was ever easy with Napier — sealed the deal.

In a way, Napier achieved what Stricklin hoped he would. Napier got Florida off the roller coaster.

Unfortunately, he crashed the Gators into the valley.



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No. 1 transfer QB now linked to three major college football programs

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The NCAA transfer portal is officially open for all college football players seeking new schools next season. The portal is open for two weeks, officially closing on Jan. 16.

In the weeks following the conclusion of the 2025 college football regular season, thousands of players from all levels of the sport made the decision to enter the transfer portal. Some of the more marquee names in this cycle involve quarterbacks shifting the Power Four level.

One of these quarterbacks on the move is former Cincinnati signal-caller Brendan Sorsby. He will have one season of eligibility remaining at his third school.

The 6-foot-3, 235-pounder began his college football career under Tom Allen in 2022. He completed three of six passes for eight yards and an interception in a blowout loss to Penn State in his lone appearance that season.

Sorsby was featured in 10 of Indiana’s 12 games in the 2023 season. He finished the year with 1,587 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing for another 286 yards and four touchdowns. Allen was fired that offseason, and Sorsby transferred to Cincinnati.

The Bearcats started Sorsby in all 12 games in 2024. He passed for 2,813 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 447 yards and 9 touchdowns. Cincinnati finished that season 5-7, dropping each of its last five games.

Sorsby logged 2,800 pass yards, 27 touchdown passes and five interceptions to go along with 580 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground in 2025. He was named All-Big 12 Second Team by the Big 12 coaches. He opted out of the Liberty Bowl after deciding to transfer.

Schools searching for quarterbacks in the transfer portal are considering Sorsby a hot commodity. Pete Thamel of ESPN has reported that three schools have separated themselves in the hunt for Sorsby.

Texas Tech

Joey McGuire during the Orange Bowl.

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Joey McGuire looks on from the sidelines against the Oregon Ducks | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

One potential destination for Sorsby lies within the same conference as Cincinnati. The Red Raiders have been linked with Sorsby since he first announced his intention to enter the transfer portal.

Tyler Shough (Oregon) is the only starting quarterback for the Red Raiders to come from the portal in Joey McGuire’s tenure. With Behren Morton’s eligibility expiring and backup Mitch Griffis entering the portal, Sorsby could be the bridge Texas Tech needs between Morton in 2025 and Will Hammond in 2027.

LSU

Lane Kiffin has earned the “portal king” moniker for his work in acquiring players from the transfer portal during his time at Ole Miss. Quarterback is no exception, as Matt Corral and Austin Simmons were the only signal callers recruited by the Rebels from high school to start for Kiffin in six seasons at Ole Miss.

As a program, LSU has been very successful with transfer quarterbacks in the last decade. Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels both won Heisman Trophies a year after transferring to LSU. Sorsby could be a strong fit in Kiffin’s high-octane offense.

Miami

Mario Cristobal during the Cotton Bowl.

Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal reacts beside linebacker Cameron Pruitt (22) | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mario Cristobal has finished with no fewer than 10 wins when acquiring a quarterback from the transfer portal at Miami. The Hurricanes produced the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft with Cam Ward (Washington State).

The Hurricanes are one win away from appearing in their first national championship since the end of the 2002 season with Carson Beck (Georgia) at quarterback. Sorsby figures to be an option given Miami’s track record with portal quarterbacks.



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Why This Year’s College Football Playoff Is The Most Exciting Yet

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After an exciting quarterfinal round filled with upsets and thrilling finishes, the College Football Playoff Semifinals are officially set, and the No. 5 Oregon Ducks are one of the four remaining teams with a shot at winning the national championship. 

Following their dominating 23-0 win over the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl, Oregon will face the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers in the Semifinal at the Peach Bowl in a rematch of the Ducks’ one loss of the season. The Hoosiers defeated the Ducks 30-20 at Autzen Stadium on Oct. 11. 

Oregon Ducks College Football Playoff Texas Tech Red Raiders national championship Indiana Hoosiers Peach Bowl CFP Semifinal

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning watches from the sideline as the Oregon Ducks take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Hoosiers advanced to the CFP Semifinal with a dominating 38-3 win over the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl. The No. 6 Miami Hurricanes and the No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels will match up in the CFP Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl, after their stunning upsets in the quarterfinals. 

Oregon Not Only Program Seeking First National Championship

Oregon Ducks College Football Playoff Big Ten Indiana Hoosiers Ole Miss Rebels Miami Hurricanes CFP Semifinal Peach Bowl

Jan 1, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field prior to the 2025 Orange Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Entering the Peach Bowl matchup against the Hoosiers, Oregon is two games away from securing its first national championship in school history, a milestone that generations of Ducks fans have been dreaming of after falling short on several occasions in the past. 

The Ducks aren’t the only semifinal team that is looking to secure their first national championship. The Hoosiers are looking to complete one of the greatest turnarounds in college football history by becoming the first national champion to finish the season 16-0. 

MORE: Dan Lanning Doesn’t Hold Back On Oregon Ducks’ Orange Bowl Performance

MORE: Betting Odds Released for Indiana vs. Oregon Playoff Semifinal

MORE: Oregon Ducks Make College Football Playoff History in Orange Bowl

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Before coach Curt Cignetti took over as coach of the Hoosiers, Indiana had the most losses in college football history before Northwestern surpassed them this season. The Hoosiers are one of three programs, along with Rutgers and Northwestern, that have 700-plus losses. 

Oregon Ducks College Football Playoff Big Ten Indiana Hoosiers Curt Cignetti Ole Miss Rebels Miami Hurricanes national title

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) holds the trophyThursday, Jan. 1, 2026, after defeating Alabama Crimson Tide in the 112th annual Rose Bowl game in Pasadena. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ole Miss is also aiming to earn their first outright national championship in program history. The Rebels earned a share of the national championship in 1960 with the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Miami is the only CFP Semifinal team with multiple national championships, holding five titles, and is seeking its first since 2001. 

Early Peach Bowl Preview Matchup vs. Indiana

Oregon Ducks College Football Playoff Big Ten Peach Bowl Indiana Hoosiers Dante Moore Fernando Mendoza national championship

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, left, shakes hands with Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti as the Oregon Ducks host the Indiana Hoosiers Oct. 11, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon enters the Peach Bowl matchup against Indiana currently as a four-point underdog, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Peach Bowl matchup between the Ducks and the Hoosiers has the potential to be an instant classic, as both teams are playing their best football of the season. 

The quarterback duel between two of the top 2026 NFL Draft prospects, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore, will be a tremendous matchup and play a major role in which team advances to the national championship game on Jan. 19.

The defensive performance of both teams will also be critical in the Peach Bowl. In the Oct. 11 game at Autzen Stadium, Oregon and Indiana’s defense recorded a combined three interceptions in the game, with the Hoosiers forcing two takeaways compared to the one the Ducks recorded. 

Coming away with takeaways could have a major impact on the Peach Bowl result, as one turnover may decide what many expect to be a close game. Oregon and Indiana will face off in the Peach Bowl on Jan. 9 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. The kickoff of the Peach Bowl is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. PT with the game broadcast on ESPN.

  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. 

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Alabama basketball surges vs Kentucky as football embarrassed by Indiana

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Jan. 3, 2026, 2:51 p.m. CT



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Why Rutgers football retaining K.J. Duff and Antwan Raymond is a significant win for Greg Schiano

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Let’s give Greg Schiano some credit (and a bit to Keli Zinn as well): This is a tremendous job so far in the transfer portal for Rutgers football. Simply retaining star wide receiver K.J Duff and running back Antwan Raymond shows that this isn’t the same old Rutgers.

Not by a long shot. Rutgers is all-in, something that Zinn has made clear in her five months on the job as athletic director. And the ability to keep Duff and Raymond means that Rutgers is finally a player in the Big Ten.

Retaining this duo shows that the Scarlet Knights have made tremendous strides on the NIL front. Simply keeping both players while some top-tier programs had wanted to sway Duff and Raymond away in the transfer portal – well, it is a clear indicator of how far this program has come.



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No. 1 transfer portal QB strongly linked to four college football programs

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The NCAA transfer portal is officially open for any college football players seeking different destinations for the 2026 season. The portal is open for a two-week period, closing on Jan. 16.

Thousands of players chose to enter the transfer portal in the weeks after the 2025 regular season ended. At the Power Four level, these announcements have led to a realignment of starting quarterbacks.

The first quarterback that decided to search for a new school was former Arizona State starter Sam Leavitt. He will have two seasons of eligibility at his third school.

The 6-foot-2, 205-pounder began his college football journey at Michigan State under Mel Tucker in 2023. He appeared in the four games needed to keep a redshirt, completing 15 of 23 passes for 139 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Tucker was let go for cause in the middle of the season, and Leavitt entered the transfer portal the following offseason.

Leavitt started all 14 games for Arizona State in 2024. He passed for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 443 yards and five touchdowns. He guided the Sun Devils to a 12-2 overall record, Big 12 Championship victory and College Football Playoff appearance.

Leavitt was recognized as the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year and received All-Big 12 Second Team distinction. His 2,885 yards are the most by a freshman quarterback in Arizona State history.

A foot injury limited Leavitt’s 2025 season to just seven games. He passed for 1,628 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions and accumulated another 306 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

While Leavitt is sure to draw plenty of interest in the coming weeks, he has entered the portal with a “do not contact” tag, meaning he likely has a destination in mind. Pete Nakos of On3 reported that four different schools were in the mix for Leavitt on Saturday.

Kentucky

The Wildcats are a team that has found itself in the mix for Leavitt since the portal opened. Kentucky figures to be a more quarterback-friendly offense now that it has hired Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.

Kentucky will have to address its quarterback depth in the transfer portal since Cutter Boley departed for the portal. The Wildcats are confident in incoming freshman Matt Ponatoski, but Leavitt could be the bridge they need to a potential multi-year starter.

Oregon

Dan Lanning during the Orange Bowl.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning watches from the sideline as the Oregon Ducks take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the years between the end of Mario Cristobal’s tenure and the beginning of the Dan Lanning era, the Ducks have turned portal-heavy at quarterback. Anthony Brown (Boston College), Bo Nix (Auburn), Dillon Gabriel (UCF and Oklahoma) and Dante Moore (UCLA) have all started for Oregon from the transfer portal.

The other draw for Leavitt to Oregon is its proximity to his hometown. He is from West Linn, Oregon, a suburb just south of Portland and about an hour and a half north of Eugene.

Miami

Mario Cristobal following the Cotton Bowl.

Miami head coach Mario Cristobal leaves the field following the 2025 Cotton Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Mario Cristobal’s approach at quarterback has featured a turn to portal acquisitions in his last two seasons with the Hurricanes. Miami has produced a No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft with Cam Ward (Washington State) and is in the midst of a College Football Playoff run with Carson Beck (Georgia).

It would not be a surprise if the Hurricanes once again decided to take a look at the transfer portal in the 2026 offseason. Leavitt has been a target for Miami since before the portal opened.

LSU

Lane Kiffin has a reputation with successful transfer portal quarterbacks. Jaxson Dart (USC) was a first-round draft choice in the 2025 NFL draft, and Trinidad Chambliss (Ferris State) is in the midst of leading Ole Miss on a College Football Playoff run.

As a program, each of the last two quarterbacks to transfer in and start for LSU have Heisman Trophies to their names. Jayden Daniels transferred from Arizona State to LSU in 2022, a path Leavitt would take should he choose the Tigers.



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Sports Economist Concocts His $25 Million Recipe for Silverfield’s First Arkansas Roster

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Sports Economist Concocts His $25 Million Recipe for Silverfield’s First Arkansas Roster
photo credit: Craven Whitlow

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In this era of college football, one of the most pressing questions facing Arkansas – and every program, for that matter – seems simple on the surface, but is actually quite complex upon closer inspection: How should teams spend their budget when it comes to building a roster?

The Razorbacks, in particular, are trying to sort this out as we speak. As things currently stand, they have just one scholarship quarterback, one semi-proven running back, two returning starting offensive linemen, one established defensive end, three scholarship linebackers and very limited experience in the secondary. (The partridge in a pear tree just entered the transfer portal.)

That’s a lot of holes to fill – a task made even more difficult by the fact that there is no centralized clearinghouse of contracts like in the NFL. That means college football programs are left trying to figure out how much each player and position is worth and how to keep talent contributing now and into the future.

It’s a question at the top of mind for every FBS staffer, as well as most fans, so Trey Biddy over at HawgSports took a stab at it last week, giving himself $25 million to distribute across the Razorbacks’ roster. It’s an interesting breakdown and one we strongly recommend reading for yourself.

Best of Arkansas Sports, though, wanted to take a slightly different approach to the topic, so they asked sports economist Parker Fleming to take a stab at it from an analytics perspective. Here’s what he came up with…

Using the NFL as a Guide

When building a college roster, many front offices look to the NFL, which has a centralized database of player contracts as part of its Collective Bargaining Agreement. Valuing a player in the NFL becomes as straightforward as looking at a few key metrics, seeing where that player ranks in those key metrics, and then slotting their earnings in accordance with their production.

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In fact, many college teams have hired directly from the NFL ranks to have someone with professional experience help with their cap and contract management. While the experience and general principles from the NFL have great value, there are still some unique realities in college football one must consider. 

First, uncertainty around player quality in college football is dramatically higher than the NFL. New Arkansas general manager Gaizka Crowley mentioned this in a recent interview with The Athletic, citing college being distinct from the pros because there is “a ton of variance” among and between programs. College prospects are developmental, and that means the range of outcomes on a player are much larger than their more polished pro counterparts. Due to that uncertainty, investing all your resources in just a few players is going to increase your risk. 

Second, and perhaps more important, is the fact that the NFL is a passing league, where college football features the run game much more prominently. In 2025, college football teams rushed about 15% more than an average NFL team, given down, distance and game state. That means we must recalibrate our positional value relative to the NFL: QB passing and WR/CB play become slightly less important, while the run game – running backs, offensive and defensive linemen, linebackers, blocking tight end – becomes more important.

Ryan Silverfield’s Memphis was a slightly pass-heavy team in 2025, passing 2.9 percentage points more than the average team (56th most-pass happy in the nation, per cfb-graphs.com), so for this specific example, we won’t over-indulge in the run game, but we do know that’s a clear difference from the NFL example. 

Clearly, we can’t just map one for one the structure of the NFL and hope for the best with the rest of the roster. While a roster of 15 elite players and 90 replacement players would be a fun experiment, it also puts the team in a hole for recruitment (money you have to tie into players who need to develop to contribute), and at severe risk of an injury or bust derailing a season spectacularly. 

What we can do, though, is use NFL benchmarks for elite talent and adjust for rush rates to get us guiding principles for position-by-position group allocation. For our rushing adjustment, we want to increase the value of the rushing positions by about 15% and decrease the value of the passing positions by about 15%.

Then, we’ll adjust by number of players: we need more linemen and more wide receivers than we do quarterbacks or running backs, so we’ll adjust the pools accordingly. At this point, we’re entering into art not science, and different teams will have strong opinions about this adjustment. But as a guiding principle, this illustrates the roster building challenge and ways to attack it.

Position-by-Position Breakdown

One place many programs have started is with the NFL franchise tag. The franchise tag is a tool teams have where they can retain a free agent player for one season at a premium salary, designated by the average annual value of the top five salaries at that position over the last four years. 

In 2026, per overthecap.com, the franchise tag values are projected to look something like this:

Screenshot 2026-01-02 at 4.38.54 PMScreenshot 2026-01-02 at 4.38.54 PM

This table essentially reflects how the league values elite talent at each position. 

We can apply our rushing adjustment to these values to get guidelines for our position-by-position distribution. Applying the 15% adjustment to the positions as stated above, we get percentages and total amounts of a $25 million dollar budget as follows: 

Screenshot 2026-01-02 at 4.39.22 PMScreenshot 2026-01-02 at 4.39.22 PM

Following the Eagles’ Blueprint

Now that we have guardrails for positional value and overall spending, we need to think about how to distribute these amounts across players. In his article, Trey Biddy acknowledges this problem and articulates a reasonable solution: 

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“I’m capped at 105 roster spots, but instead of giving something to everyone, I’m going to focus on 75 players and no more. Everyone else will have to be happy with a scholarship. At least 20 of those 75 players will be elite recruits. However, there might be the possibility that a recruit fits into a starter, backup or reserve role. In that case it would be 20-plus recruits.

Essentially, I’m going for 55 players who are going to see the field or provide insurance in case of an injury, plus 20 more I’m invested in for the future. I also considered limiting it to as few as 47 players (the two-deep plus special teams) plus 20 or so recruits.”

Biddy was on the right track with that final statement.

The Philadelphia Eagles, one of the NFL’s most savvy front offices, invest about 80% of the salary cap in 55% of their roster, which equates to about 47 players we want to really invest in, some of whom will be recruits. Ideally, some of those recruits can contribute immediately, especially wide receivers, running backs and defensive backs. We’ll bump that up to a round 50 to include two specialists and a fourth quarterback for depth.

We’ll use the percentages above and allocate $20 million of our $25 million to those 47+3 players on the roster to give us a $5 million reserve for recruitment and portal – that’s money we want to spend every year, but reserve to allow us to go over slot or over positional numbers as the roster needs dictate based on eligibility and turnover. 

To allocate this money within position groups, I’ll use a Pareto distribution to allocate the position budgets across players. Some of you may be familiar with the Pareto rule in business, where 20% of inputs yield 80% of outputs. In our context, what it means is simple: Top-end talent will have more influence on our results, and we want to pay accordingly. Using this Pareto distribution to spread money across position groups will allow us to invest our money in high-quality talent at the most impactful positions, yielding the best results on the field, both now and in the future.

Without further ado, let’s go position by position and allocate our 50 roster spots. 

QUARTERBACK (4 Players)

  • QB1: $2,500,000
  • QB2: $647,775
  • QB3: $254,000
  • QB4: $150,723

RUNNING BACK (4 Players)

  • RB1: $548,931
  • RB2: $245,654
  • RB3: $153,482
  • RB4: $109,933

WIDE RECEIVER (7 Players)

  • WR1: $1,022,607
  • WR2: $457,629
  • WR3: $285,922
  • WR4: $204,795
  • WR5: $158,090
  • WR6: $127,000
  • WR7: $107,003

TIGHT END (3 Players)

  • TE1: $602,161
  • TE2: $269,474
  • TE3: $168,365

OFFENSIVE LINE (10 Players)

  • OT1: $1,558,248
  • OT2: $710,761
  • OG1: $444,076
  • OT3: $318,074
  • C: $245,535
  • OG2: $198,730
  • OT4: $166,190
  • OT5: $142,342
  • IOL4: $124,164
  • IOL5: $109,880

DEFENSIVE END (4 Players)

  • DE1: $767,881
  • DE2: $343,636
  • DE3: $214,701
  • DE4: $153,782

DEFENSIVE TACKLE (4 Players)

  • DT1: $1,209,932
  • DT2: $541,460
  • DT3: $338,299
  • DT4: $242,310

LINEBACKER (4 Players)

  • LB1: $1,073,996
  • LB2: $480,627
  • LB3: $300,291
  • LB4: $215,086

SAFETY (4 Players)

  • S1: $795,899
  • S2: $356,175
  • S3: $222,534
  • S4: $159,393

CORNERBACK (4 Players)

  • CB1: $599,777
  • CB2: 268,408
  • CB3: $167,699
  • CB4: $120,116

SPECIALISTS (2 Players)

TOTAL: 50 Players, $19,726,000

  • OFFENSE: 28 Players, $11,010,000
  • DEFENSE: 20 Players, $8,572,000
  • SPECIALISTS: 2 Players, $144,000

RECRUITING BUDGET AND REST OF ROSTER: $5,418,000 ($235,565 per player for an average recruiting class of 23 players)

These are some of the key differences between mine and Trey Biddy’s methods: 

  • Less commitment to QBs: we want to keep the money on the field, and so while we want to entice backups to stay, we also need to walk a fine line between paying for players who aren’t contributing this season. 
  • Balance at the tails for premium positions: The value of a good running back is higher in college than the NFL, but we also know a couple things: Running Backs take a lot of wear and tear, and their success is dependent on their surroundings. The analytical approach would be to pay for an upper middle class veteran back, and play your young running backs as well, investing the rest of the top end money into the offensive line. 
  • Specialist numbers were too high. A good punting and kicking game is important, but ancillary to moving the ball well in the down-to-down business of football. We want to attract and retain talent without paying market premiums for positions that yield minimal influence on our overall success. I refrained from paying a long-snapper at all; long-snapping is a skill that can be taught, and I have faith in the coaching staff to find a walk-on who would be happy to have that role. 

What we’ve done above is taken an analytical approach to framing ideal targets for roster spending. This approach, one of many potential successful approaches, emphasizes top-end talent on on-field contribution, while leaving substantial funds for coaching preference at depth or paying premiums for transfer portal talent.

When building a roster, the current money on the books will be the biggest constraint for coaches, as well as the natural evolution of the roster due to eligibility limits. The analytical approach above attempts to tie spending to on-field impact and position Arkansas to build a championship caliber roster.

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