The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Chris Sale ($9,400) Atlanta Braves (-180) vs. San Diego Padres

There are a bunch of good pitchers on Friday’s slate, but no one checks all of the boxes for DFS purposes. Zack Wheeler is the most expensive pitcher, but he has an opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs against a solid Athletics’ lineup. Nick Pivetta’s Vegas data is even worse, while Pablo Lopez has a mediocre K Prediction against a Royals’ lineup that is tough to strike out. All three players have some potential on most slates, but they don’t stand out as truly exciting on Friday.

Sale is probably the closest thing to a stud pitcher on Friday. His matchup vs. the Padres isn’t ideal, but their 95 wRC+ vs. southpaws makes them a bit less formidable than they are against righties. Their 3.3 implied run total is the lowest mark on the slate, while Sale’s -180 moneyline odds make him the fifth-largest favorite.

Sale is also a better pitcher than his current salary indicates. He won the NL Triple Crown last season, leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. His numbers are down this season, but that stems primarily from a tough stretch to start the year. He’s been much better of late, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts. He’s added at least eight strikeouts in five of them, and he’s cracked double-digit strikeouts in two.

The strikeout upside is really what sets Sale apart from his peers. He ranks in the 90th percentile for strikeout rate, and his 6.98 K Prediction ranks first among Friday’s starters. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.76 (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, Sale is a pitcher who should clearly be priced above $10,000 at this point, but we’re still getting him at a slight discount thanks to his slow start. 

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MLB DFS Value Pick

Clarke Schmidt ($7,200) New York Yankees (-295) at Colorado Rockies

Pitching in Coors Field is never fun, but the Rockies have been so bad this season that it hasn’t really mattered. They’re still merely 22nd in the league in runs per game when playing at home, and they’re 28th in wRC+ when facing a right-hander in Coors Field.

Outside of the location, Schmidt has a lot of things working for him. Most importantly, he plays for one of the best teams in the league. The Yankees have an elite offense, and they’re currently implied for 7.5 runs in this matchup. That gives Schmidt massive win potential. He checks in as a -295 moneyline favorite, and no other pitcher is currently above -194.

It’s rare to get such a large favorite at just a $7,200 price tag. There have only been 28 previous instances in our Trends database of pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and K Predictions, and those starters have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.48. That’s tough to ignore.

Schmidt also stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a 98% Bargain Rating, and he leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus. He’s a viable SP2 in all formats.

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MLB DFS GPP Picks

Yusei Kikuchi ($8,200) Los Angeles Angels (-152) vs. Miami Marlins

Kikuchi is the definition of a mediocre pitcher, and he’s been even more mediocre than usual in 2025. His 3.50 ERA is a slight improvement compared to last season, but his 4.72 xERA is significantly worse. He’s also had one of the worst strikeout seasons of his career, ranking in just the 45th percentile for strikeout rate. However, that shouldn’t matter too much vs. the Marlins. They’ve been well below average against left-handers this season, and Kikuchi has pretty solid Vegas marks for his price tag. He checks in near the top of the projected Plus/Minus leaderboards in both the Fantasy Labs and BAT X projections.

Pablo Lopez ($9,900) Minnesota Twins (-190) vs. Kansas City Royals

The matchup vs. the Royals is far from ideal for Lopez. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the league vs. right-handers, and Lopez isn’t exactly a strikeout artist to begin with. That said, Lopez is just a really good pitcher. He’s posted a 2.40 ERA this season, and his 2.81 xERA puts him in the 85th percentile. He also grades out as well above average in most batted-ball metrics, while his strikeout numbers are slightly up in 2025. Like Sale, this is a pitcher who simply shouldn’t be available at a sub-$10k price tag. Sale also figures to soak up most of the ownership in this price range, making Lopez an intriguing pivot for tournaments.

Sandy Alcantara ($7,700) Miami Marlins (+128) at Los Angeles Angels

It has been sad to watch Alcantara’s return to the bump this season. He hasn’t looked like nearly the same pitcher that he was in his prime, posting a dreadful 7.99 ERA with terrible underlying metrics. Alcantara has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his past seven starts, but he’s had to navigate a bear of a schedule. He’s already faced the Dodgers twice, the Mets, and the Phillies this season, all of which grade out as high-end MLB offenses. He hasn’t exactly thrived in his “easy” matchups, either, but perhaps he can turn things around moving forward. He’s in a great spot to do that on Friday, with the Angels ranking 23rd in wRC+ with the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers.

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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the New York Yankees:

The Yankees’ offense stands out as the clear top target on this slate. They’re already one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking third in the league in runs per game, and now they get to play in the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball.

They’re also facing an extremely hittable pitcher in Tanner Gordon. Chase Dollander will not make his scheduled start after landing on the IL with forearm tightness, and Gordon pitched to an 8.65 ERA in eight starts with the Rockies last season. He’s at 5.68 through one start this year, so the Yankees have massive potential.

The more interesting question is, what is the best way to stack the Yankees? It starts with Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham. Judge is the best hitter in the world at the moment, and he and Grisham have both demolished right-handers so far this season (via Plate IQ):

The big wrinkle is that it’s impossible to stack the top five in the Yankees’ order. Four of those players are eligible only in the outfield, so you’ll need to get a little bit creative. That makes Austin Wells an interesting option as the projected No. 7 hitter. Not only has he fared well against right-handers this season, but he fills the tricky catcher spot in your lineup.

The big downside with the Yankees is their price tag. Judge alone will set you back $7,000, and their top stack costs more than $28,000. That makes pairing them with a stud pitcher virtually impossible, and you’ll likely need to utilize a few punt plays to round out your lineup. That’s still doable, and if the Yankees go off, it could be well worth it.

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!

Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game and watch the video below.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections,  THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Joc Pederson 1B ($2,400) Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox (Sean Burke)

Pederson got off to a ridiculously slow start for the Rangers this season, and his numbers for the year still look pretty dismal. However, he has at least shown some signs of life recently. He’s homered in two of his past eight starts, and Pederson has a long track record of success at the MLB level. He was a well-above-average hitter for the Diamondbacks last season, posting a 151 wRC+, so there’s no reason he should continue to struggle forever.

Pederson will be in a very favorable spot Friday vs. Burke. His 4.69 ERA doesn’t jump off the page as disastrous, but his 6.55 xERA is significantly worse. He’s also allowed some of the loudest contact in baseball this season, ranking in the 16th percentile for barrel rate while allowing 1.69 homers per nine innings. Ultimately, Pederson has far more upside than his current salary suggests, and he has the top projected Plus/Minus among non-Yankees using the blended projections.

Jordan Lawlar ($2,000) Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas)

Lawlar is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and he’s expected to bat ninth for the Diamondbacks on Friday. That’s not the most appealing combination, but Lawlar is not your typical No. 9 batter. He entered this season as one of the top prospects in baseball, and he has the potential to be a future star.

He tore up Triple-A to begin the year, posting a 143 wRC+ with six homers and 13 steals in just 37 games. He’s yet to have that kind of production at the major league level, but there’s no reason why it can’t come sooner rather than later.

Mikolas is definitely not a pitcher that we need to fear. He owns a 4.45 xERA for the year, and he’s been one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball. Lawlar should be able to put the bat on the ball in this matchup, and with his talent, that could lead to a breakout performance.

Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,500) Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres (Nick Pivetta)

Acuna will suit up for the first time in 2025 when the Braves host the Padres on Friday. Just in case you need a reminder, Acuna is really freaking good. The last time we saw him for a full season, he became the first player in MLB history with more than 40 homers and 70 steals in 2023. He’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet, and he should move right into his usual spot atop the Braves’ lineup.

$5,500 could be the cheapest that we see Acuna all year. He’s also not going to garner a ton of attention in his first game back, so he’s a very interesting pivot for those who aren’t stacking the Yankees.

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Pictured: Aaron Judge
Photo Credit: Getty Images

May 23, 2025 | 00:05:55

Infielder/outfielder Ryan Noda has been traded from the Angels to the Red Sox, according to announcements from both clubs. The Halos, who designated Noda for assignment a few days ago, receive cash considerations in return. The Red Sox optioned Noda to Triple-A Worcester and transferred outfielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot.

Noda, 29, was a Rule 5 success story just over a year ago. Going into 2023, the Athletics plucked him from the Dodgers and put him at first base almost every day, in addition to occasional time in the outfield corners. He stepped to the plate 495 times that year and posted an awful 34.3% strikeout rate but he also drew walks at a 15.6% clip and hit 16 home runs. Despite all those punchouts, he was on-base enough and had enough power to produce a .229/.364/.406 line and 122 wRC+.

That was generally in line with his previous minor league performance. In Triple-A with the Dodgers the year prior, he had a 16% walk rate, 28.2% strikeout rate and 25 home runs, leading to a .259/.395/.474 line and 125 wRC+.

But Noda got out to a slow start in 2024. He had a .128/.242/.198 line on May 2nd when the A’s sent him down to the minors. From then on, he did his usual thing. He had 447 Triple-A plate appearances last year with 22 home runs, a 19.9% walk rate and a 30% strikeout rate.

The A’s put him on waivers in November and the Angels claimed him. The Halos kept him in Triple-A to start the year, where he continued in his particular fashion, though with some apparent bad luck. He has a 20.1% walk rate and 34.4% strikeout rate so far this year with four home runs but a .224 batting average on balls in play, leading to a .148/.364/.270 line and 81 wRC+.

For the Red Sox, first base is an obvious target area. Triston Casas suffered a season-ending injury a few weeks ago. Designated hitter Rafael Devers was approached about trying to learn the position but he didn’t take well to that request. Second baseman/outfielder Kristian Campbell has been doing first base drills but hasn’t yet appeared there in a game. Romy González took over the position for a few days before landing on the IL with a a left quad contusion. Glove-first utility guys like Abraham Toro and Nick Sogard have been covering the position in recent weeks.

Noda is a proper first baseman with a bit of major league success and options, so he’s a logical depth add for the Sox. They can get a close-up look at him in Worcester and decide whether they want to call him up for major league at-bats at some point.

As for Yoshida, this doesn’t change anything about his timeline. He has been on the 10-day IL all season, struggling to get his shoulder healthy after last year’s surgery. His 60-day count is retroactive to his initial IL placement, so he’ll be eligible for activation in about a week. He has not begun a rehab assignment, so a return in the near future doesn’t seem likely. As of yesterday, manager Alex Cora said Yoshida would be restarting his throwing program after receiving a cortisone shot, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic.

Photo courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images

Hip Hop was king in the Nineties and Noughties, with some of the most infamous albums of the rap genre emerging during this time from the likes of Biggie Smalls and Jay-Z to Mary J Blige and Usher. But, if you flip any of those album covers over, the likelihood is you’ll see the same name over and over again – Sean Combs (aka Diddy), a rapper and music producer who generated countless hip-hop hits under his Bad Boy Records label, which he founded in 1993.

Now though, the man who once ruled the music industry finds himself behind bars awaiting trial, accused of sex trafficking, transportation for prostitution and racketeering conspiracy.

The documentary – essential watching in light of the first day of his abuse trial – maps out his ascension to power and the allegations of violence and abuse that were kept quiet for years. The Fall of Diddy is a five-part documentary and comes from the same producers as Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV – a documentary series that went viral last year for exposing child abuse allegations from Nickelodeon TV sets in the 90s and early 00s.

The Diddy documentary, which is available to stream right now, includes testimonies of alleged victims and those who have worked closely with the rapper over the years, including his personal assistant. The series also shows and investigates security footage of Combs physically abusing his former girlfriend Cassie Ventura, whose lawsuit against the mogul led to his ultimate arrest in September 2024.

To catch the full story of Diddy’s rise to power and the details of his alleged crimes, here’s how to stream the entire series now.

Where to watch ‘The Fall of Diddy’ in the UK?

The documentary series began streaming in the UK on 28 January, releasing all five episodes immediately onto Discovery+.

Discovery+ is an American streaming service that UK audiences can access by attaching it to an existing Amazon account for £3.99 per month or £39.99 annually. Included in your Discovery+ subscription you will also have access to live channels, including Animal Planet, Discovery, Discovery History, Discovery Science, DMAX, Food Network, HGTV, Quest, Quest Red, TLC, Turbo and ID.

A subscription to Discovery+ is also free for any Sky Q, Sky Glass and Sky

Watch the trailer for ‘The Fall of Diddy’:

The documentary can be watched through Discovery+ in the UK, where a description of the documentary reads: “Pull back the curtain on music mogul Sean Combs, and the allegations of violence and abuse kept quiet for years. This chilling chronicle redefines the music mogul and business titan everyone thinks they know.” Many of the interviews featured are from those who claim to have experienced the violence and manipulation of Diddy firsthand, including rappers and singers within the music industry and former employees of his record label.

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With only two rounds left in the Super Rugby Pacific regular season, fans are buzzing about which teams will make it to the playoffs.

This year has been a close competition, with only six spots in the finals and a tight race for the top positions.

The Brumbies, Chiefs, and Crusaders have pulled ahead and are currently leading the pack.

Let’s break down the potential scenarios for the finals, looking at which teams are safe, which are in danger of missing out, and who still has a chance:

Out of the running: Fijian Drua and Western Force

The Fijian Drua and Western Force are officially out of the finals race, as they are too far behind sixth-placed Moana Pasifika. They have byes this weekend and next.

In the hunt

Highlanders (19 points)

Next matches: Crusaders (away), Chiefs (home)

Best possible finish: Sixth place

Even though they sit at the bottom of the standings, the Highlanders still have a mathematical shot at the playoffs, but it won’t be easy.

Timoci Tavatavanawai charges ahead for the Highlanders against the Hurricanes in Wellington on 16 May 2025. The Hurricanes won 24-20. Photo/Photosport

They need to win their next two matches with bonus points and hope that Moana Pasifika lose their upcoming games against the Chiefs and the Hurricanes.

They will also need the Force to beat the Waratahs, and then the Waratahs to defeat the Blues in the final round and hope that the defending champions from Auckland will not pick up a losing bonus point.

Waratahs (22 points)

Next matches: Force (away), Blues (away)

Best possible finish: Sixth place

Despite their current struggles, the Waratahs can still qualify for the finals. They must win both remaining matches against the Force and the Blues while getting help from other teams.

If they win, they hope for favourable outcomes in matches involving the Reds, Hurricanes, and Moana Pasifika.

The Blues, led by captain Patrick Tuipulotu, will be hoping for a better outing in their next game after their shock 27-21 defeat to Moana Pasifika last weekend. Photo/Photosport

Blues (28 points)

Next matches: Bye, Waratahs (home)

Best possible finish: Fifth place

The Blues have a clearer path to the finals. They hope for a bye this weekend, followed by a victory over the Waratahs in their last game. If things go their way in other matches, they could end up in fifth or possibly higher.

Moana Pasifika (28 points)

Next matches: Chiefs (away), Hurricanes (away)

Best possible finish: Fourth place

Moana Pasifika have done well to reach sixth place, but face tough matches ahead. They must win both upcoming games against the Chiefs and Hurricanes and hope for favourable results in other matches to earn their first playoff spot. They will be keeping an eye on the Reds-Hurricanes clash this weekend. A draw or Reds’ win would be ideal for Tana Umaga’s men; they would climb to fifth combined with a Moana win over the Chiefs. Moana will make their maiden finals appearance if they defeat the Hurricanes in Wellington and the Blues lose to the Waratahs. With two Moana wins, if the Reds lose to the Drua in Brisbane, Moana Pasifika could climb as high as fourth on points differential.

Super Rugby Player of the Year 2025: Moana Pasifika captain Ardie Savea against the Fijian Drua, will lead his side against the Chiefs in Hamilton on Saturday. Photo/Photosport

Hurricanes (30 points)

Next matches: Reds (away), Moana Pasifika (home)

Best possible finish: 4th

For the Hurricanes, things are looking more straightforward. Winning both their last matches will secure them fourth place. If they lose one but win the other, they still have a strong chance of making the finals, depending on the outcomes of several other matches.

Reds (32 points)

Next matches: Hurricanes (home, Drua (home)

Best possible finish: Second place

The Reds are in a strong position, aiming for the second final spot. They are looking to win their remaining matches to secure their place in the playoffs and potentially improve their position.

Crusaders winger Sevu Reece and his team-mates celebrate their win over the defending champions Blues in Christchurch on 18 April 2025. Photo/Photosport

Finals confirmed

Crusaders (41 points)

Next matches: Highlanders (h), Brumbies (away)

Best possible finish: First place

The race for the top three spots is close, with the Crusaders and Chiefs likely to move up past the Brumbies, who will have a break this weekend.

To secure first place, the Crusaders must win all their remaining games. They also hope the Chiefs will stumble against Moana Pasifika or the Highlanders. If the Crusaders lose to the Brumbies but beat the Highlanders, their final position will depend on how the Chiefs perform in their matches. Even in the worst-case scenario, the Crusaders should still finish in the top four, ensuring a spot in the finals.

Chiefs’ forward Wallace Sititi against the Force in Mount Maunganui on 25 April 2025. Chiefs won 56-22. Photo/Photosport

Chiefs (41 points)

Next matches: Moana Pasifika (h), Highlanders (a)

Best possible finish: First

The Chiefs have a points advantage that could help them finish first. If they manage to win both of their next games, especially with bonus points, they could reach 53 points. However, if the Chiefs lose their two matches while the Crusaders also lose and the Reds win both their games with bonus points, the Chiefs could drop to third place. In any case, the Chiefs are assured of a spot in the finals.

Brumbies (43 points)

Next matches: Bye, Crusaders (away)

Best possible finish: First

The Brumbies have a bye week to rest their players, but this also gives the Crusaders and Chiefs a chance to catch up. They are safe for the finals since the Reds can’t get enough points to surpass them. To solidify their position, the Brumbies must beat the Crusaders in their next match to guarantee they finish in at least second place. They will be watching the Chiefs closely, and if the Chiefs lose their upcoming games and the Brumbies win, it could help them take the top spot. But if the Chiefs win and the Crusaders lose, the Brumbies and Crusaders could be in a crucial match for the top position.

As the final rounds approach, every match counts, and fans are eagerly watching to see how everything plays out – World Rugby

Moana fans will be heading to Hamilton this Saturday to cheer on their side against the Chiefs. Photo/Photosport

UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones continues to ponder unifying the heavyweight belts in a showdown with Tom Aspinall.

Jon Jones continues to tease UFC fans about his fighting future months after beginning negotiations with the promotion to fight interim titleholder Tom Aspinall. Jones nearly broke the internet earlier this week when a leaked conversation with a fighter featured the heavyweight champ declaring ‘I’m done’ when pushed about his activity in the Octagon.

Jones didn’t take long to reverse course on that declaration, easing fan fears of a UFC retirement in a follow-up social media post. Afterwards, Aspinall shared footage of him ramping up his training camp work, reigniting fan excitement behind the possible Jones matchup.

But hours later, Jones revamped fears of the Aspinall fight not coming to fruition.

Jon Jones shares latest UFC retirement update after week of social media flip flops

Jones teased retirement in the lead-up to his UFC 309 win over Stipe Miocic, in his long-awaited first heavyweight title defense. He briefly eyed a matchup with Alex Pereira, over Aspinall, before Pereira lost the UFC light heavyweight title to Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 313.

After previously dismissing a showdown with Aspinall, due to personal disdain towards the interim titleholder, Jones reversed course in his post-fight interview at UFC 309 with Joe Rogan. But six months removed from UFC 309, Jones and Aspinall don’t seem closer to having a matchup come to fruition.

Jones’s latest comments won’t help quell UFC fans’ fears of the all-time great walking away before fighting Aspinall.

In a recent post on X, Jones answered a fan who asked him about how it feels to be a retired athlete.

“I don’t know if I wanna call it retired, I feel like I’ll always have an ability to pop out and show em. I’ve had many breaks throughout my career, my identity outside of fighting is well intact,” Jones answered.

“I’m genuinely enjoying life, I’m growing in different ways.”

UFC fans weren’t hearing it from Jones after his latest remarks.

“Just stop holding the belt hostage,” one fan replied on X.

“So you don’t want the smoke with Tommy?” another said.

“Your identity outside of fighting is absolutely horrendous, mate. This is the one time in your whole career where you have a fight that the fans truly want to see, you’ll get paid well for it, and you’re running away?”

“Just vacate the title admit retirement and you won’t have to see a British animal in your nightmares any longer.”

“Jon is severely retired.”

“After all your time in the UFC and everything it has given you then don’t you feel you owe it to the company to let the heavyweight division move on?”

“Bro thinks he’s the main character still. Never was the biggest draw and never will be.”

“Terrified of a polite English man.”

As of this writing, Jones hasn’t provided further comment on the state of the Aspinall fight and a potential retirement from MMA.

Jon Jones vs. Nate Diaz reality TV show cancelled after chaotic on-set brawl

Jones’s scheduled reality television showdown with Nate Diaz was abruptly cancelled after a chaotic on-set brawl between fighters and Diaz’s team. After the incident, several Russian fighters stalked Diaz and his team around Thailand on motorcycles in an attempt to intimidate the former UFC superstar.

Diaz and Jones were supposed to square off as coaches on a spinoff of The Ultimate Fighter in Thailand, featuring many promising MMA prospects in the region. Jones coached TUF once during his legendary career opposite Chael Sonnen.

As Jones continues to enjoy some down time in Thailand, many UFC fans are beginning to lose their patience with the UFC heavyweight champion. But UFC CEO Dana White remains adamant that the promotion will book the Jones vs. Aspinall showdown for later this year.