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James Madison has won 28 games in three seasons, while South Alabama has won 24. Louisiana has four 10-win seasons in the past six years, Troy has five in the past nine, and Appalachian State has five in the past 10. Hell, even with a recent stumble, Coastal Carolina has two in the past five.

Texas State is coming off its two best FBS seasons. Georgia Southern is coming off its best season in four years, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe their best in five and Marshall its best in nine. Even Georgia State has five winning seasons in the past eight years.

Nearly everyone in the Sun Belt has reached solid to great heights of late. Considering the immutable fact that someone has to lose every football game, that’s an awfully impressive sign of parity and general conference health.

At the moment, though, there’s a bit of a leadership void: Troy lost its head coach after winning the 2022 and 2023 Sun Belt titles and fell off last fall, and damned if Marshall doesn’t look primed to do exactly the same after last season’s title run. Does that mean it’s James Madison’s turn? The Dukes dropped the baton in 2024, falling out of contention thanks to a pair of maddening two-point losses. If they stumble again, will that leave the door open for Louisiana? Texas State? South Alabama? Another team?

Someone has to come out on top. Let’s preview the Sun Belt!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews will include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules.

Earlier previews: MAC | Conference USA | Mountain West

2024 recap

Last season, the best teams on paper weren’t the best in close games, and that made the Sun Belt race an awfully surprising one. James Madison and Texas State both finished in the SP+ top 50, but they each went 1-2 in one-score Sun Belt finishes, and late defensive stumbles left them on the outside of the conference race. South Alabama hinted at major upside but couldn’t close games out either.

Louisiana was next up on the SP+ hierarchy and used a six-game winning streak to earn a spot in the Sun Belt championship game, but a pair of late-season QB injuries rendered its offense incompetent in the title game. And while everyone else was stumbling late, Marshall peaked: The Thundering Herd ranked 82nd in SP+ with just a 5-3 record heading into Week 11 but won their last five games by an average of 35-19 and grabbed the title, all while an evidently contentious school/coach relationship was pushing Charles Huff out the door. (He landed at Southern Miss.)

It was an odd season, in other words. And if I have any say in the matter, 2025 will be just as odd.

Continuity table

The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players, and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.

We’re quickly growing accustomed to a new head coach bringing some of his old players with him. But we’ve got an extreme example of that going on at Southern Miss in 2025: When USM hired Huff the day after Marshall’s Sun Belt championship win, so many Marshall players entered the transfer portal that the school had to opt out of its Independence Bowl berth.

When the dust settled, 50 Marshall players had entered the portal in the winter and spring windows, and 21 of them had landed at Southern Miss. About one-fourth of the Golden Eagles’ roster played in Huntington last year. And despite new Herd head coach Tony Gibson bringing in 55 transfers of his own, Marshall heads toward the 2025 season with the lowest returning production averages in the country. The Herd officially return three starters from last year’s champ, while Southern Miss, which went 1-11 last season, returns five. Mind-blowing stuff.

Other interesting continuity notes: Despite losing star running back Ahmad Hardy to Missouri, ULM’s production numbers are good after a refreshing 5-7 campaign in Bryant Vincent’s first season at the helm; Georgia Southern hit the 60% mark as well; and at the other end, App State is starting over: After suffering their first losing season at the FBS level, the Mountaineers will have a new head coach (Dowell Loggains) and approximately 17 new starters.

2025 projections

SP+ basically declares JMU the favorite, then shrugs. The Dukes were frustrating but frequently awesome in 2024, and they return exciting dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III — assuming full health after a late-season injury, anyway — plus a loaded running back room and, despite losing star defensive end Eric O’Neill to Rutgers, maybe the conference’s most proven set of defensive personnel. They deserve the top spot, and if they stumble again, I have absolutely no idea who should be next on the list.

Meanwhile, the projections for Marshall and Southern Miss serve as a reminder that, despite making lots of adjustments to how I go about creating SP+ projections, it’s really hard to get a statistical read on what either the Herd or Golden Eagles might be capable of in 2025. I would expect Southern Miss to be a prime overachievement candidate, while Marshall really might struggle to even rank 87th.

East divisionTEAMCONF. WCONF. TITLE %11+ WINS %6+ WINS %James Madison6.020.8%7.0%98.6%Ga. Southern5.010.6%1.1%88.3%Coastal Caro.4.17.0%0.1%62.6%App. St.4.06.4%0.2%67.4%Marshall3.45.6%0.0%54.0%Old Dominion3.65.1%0.0%32.2%Georgia St.2.42.8%0.0%10.2%West divisionTEAMCONF. WCONF. TITLE %11+ WINS %6+ WINS %S. Alabama5.210.0%1.1%87.0%Louisiana4.99.3%1.3%91.0%Troy4.87.9%0.2%76.1%Texas St.4.16.1%0.1%64.8%Arkansas St.3.64.4%0.0%43.6%UL-Monroe2.82.5%0.0%23.2%So. Miss2.11.5%0.0%8.8%Indeed, after JMU up top, SP+ gives nine teams between a 5% and 11% chance of winning the conference title. As with last year, whoever wins its close games and peaks in November will have an excellent chance.Five best games of 2025Here’s where I typically share the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. But since all the top games (and the top nonconference game) feature James Madison — the Dukes have quite the road slate ahead — I tweaked the approach a bit. Here are five big games, if not the five best as defined above.James Madison at Liberty (Sept. 20). For all we know, this one might have College Football Playoff implications. JMU and Liberty have been two of the more steadily strong Group of 5 programs over the last two or three years, and both stumbled at inopportune times in 2024.Editor’s Picks2 RelatedJMU’s schedule is a road-heavy delight, from top to bottom. The Dukes visit Louisville and Liberty in September, then visit Texas State, Marshall and Coastal Carolina over the back half of the season. Throw in home games against Georgia Southern and Louisiana and a late November visit from Washington State, and you’ve got one unique slate.Georgia Southern at James Madison (Sept. 27). SP+ is optimistic about Georgia Southern’s chances of becoming a contender in 2025, and this game will be a pretty solid prove-it opportunity in that regard.South Alabama at Troy (Oct. 4). South Alabama might have lost more talent than anyone else in FBS in the spring portal window, but the Jaguars still return quite a bit, and Troy’s continuity levels are solid after a setback season. Depending on how well Texas State handles roster turnover, the winner of this one could become Louisiana’s biggest competitor in the West Division. (That’s right: The Sun Belt still has divisions! And makes actual geographic sense!)Louisiana at James Madison (Oct. 11) and Louisiana at South Alabama (Nov. 1). Like JMU, Michael Desormeaux’s Ragin’ Cajuns will need to be road warriors to fulfill their potential.Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contendersHead coach: Bob Chesney (second year, 9-4 overall)2025 projection: 49th in SP+, 8.5 average wins (6.0 in the Sun Belt)Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston … we’ve seen plenty of excellent FCS-to-FBS transitions through the years. But JMU might turn out to be the gold standard in this regard. The Dukes began FBS life with five straight wins and an AP poll appearance, and it was a genuine surprise that they didn’t play for the Sun Belt title in their first season eligible last year. The next time they finish outside of the SP+ top 50 will be the first, and they aren’t projected to do so in 2025.With George Pettaway leading the way, James Madison has one of the best running back groups in the country. AP Photo/Lynne SladkyIt would be even brighter, potentially, if we knew Alonza Barnett III would be 100%. The junior QB combined 2,598 passing yards (and a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio) with 669 non-sack rushing yards last year before injuring his leg against Marshall. He was cleared only for non-contact drills this spring, and his status remains unclear. Heading into his second season after succeeding Curt Cignetti, Chesney took no chances, bringing in two QB transfers: Richmond’s Camden Coleman and Matthew Sluka;. Sluka is known primarily for his NIL-related opt-out at UNLV last season, but before that he was a star for Chesney at Holy Cross, leaving as the Crusaders’ No. 2 career rusher and No. 5 career passer and a two-time Walter Payton Award finalist (top player in FCS). Chesney and offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy love a nice, durable dual-threat QB, and both Sluka and Coleman (to a degree) qualify if Barnett isn’t ready.

The RB corps might be one of the best in the FBS. George Pettaway and backups Wayne Knight and Jobi Malary combined to average 22 carries per game and 6.0 yards per carry, and Ayo Adeyi, injured for most of 2024, was a 1,000-yard rusher at North Texas in 2023. The line in front of them does have to replace three starters, but right tackle Pat McMurtrie is the only returning player on the first-team All-Sun Belt list, three other returning veterans have starting experience, and Chesney brought in former North Carolina center Zach Greenberg and all-Patriot League selection Cam McNair (Holy Cross), among four transfers. He also dipped heavily into the portal to find pass catchers: Sure-handed slot man Yamir Knight will be joined by both former power conference reserves in Braeden Wisloski (Maryland) and 6-foot-4 Isaiah Alston (Iowa State) and FCS starters Landon Ellis (Richmond), Nick DeGennaro (Richmond) and Jaylan Sanchez (Villanova).

Chesney also was pretty aggressive on defense, adding 13 transfers to a lineup that boasts some proven pieces — 315-pound tackle Immanuel Bush, linebacker Trent Hendrick, safety Jacob Thomas, nickel DJ Barksdale — but returns only seven of the 19 players who saw at least 200 snaps in 2024. Again, he dipped heavily into the FCS ranks, bringing in stars such as defensive end Xavier Holmes (12.5 TFLs at Maine), tackle Andrew Taddeo (7.5 TFLs at Colgate), linebacker JT Kouame-Yao (11.5 TFLs at Shepherd), safety Curtis Harris-Lopez (9.5 TFLs and nine passes defended at Holy Cross) and corner TJ McGill (six passes defended as a freshman at William & Mary), plus former blue-chip defensive end Aiden Gobaira (Notre Dame).

There are enough new pieces here that success isn’t guaranteed, but the combination of proven talent and proven smaller-school playmakers — especially at a school that has more than proven that FCS stars can become FBS stalwarts — makes JMU the preseason conference favorite. It’s up to the Dukes to close the deal this time.

Head coach: Major Applewhite (second year, 7-6 overall)

2025 projection: 76th in SP+, 7.3 average wins (5.2 in the Sun Belt)

As a redshirt freshman, Gio Lopez ranked seventh among G5 quarterbacks in Total QBR. He’s a North Carolina Tar Heel now. As a true freshman, Fluff Bothwell was a bolt of lightning, gaining 924 yards in just 124 combined rushes and receptions and scoring 13 times. He’s now a Mississippi State Bulldog. Right tackle Malachi Carney (Georgia Tech) … edge rusher Aakil Washington (SMU) … cornerbacks Lardarius Webb Jr. (Wake Forest) and Amarion Fortenberry (Kansas State) … injured cornerback Ricky Fletcher (Ole Miss) … nickel back Jordan Scruggs (West Virginia) … even kicker Laith Marjan (Kansas). A whole bunch of South Alabama players flashed major potential, then got plucked away in the transfer portal. Offensive coordinator Rob Izell (Wake Forest) basically did too.

Players moving up and down the ladder with lightning speed is a symptom of the portal era, and few schools had more players move up than Major Applewhite’s USA. If you look solely at who they don’t have, in fact, it’s hard to envision the Jags playing a major role in the Sun Belt race in 2025.

If you look at who they do have, however, they might still have a chance:

• Quarterbacks Bishop Davenport and Zach Pyron (Georgia Tech) both have starting experience and have flashed dual-threat capabilities.

• Veteran running back Kentrel Bullock had 984 rushing and receiving yards (5.9 per touch) despite sharing touches with Bothwell.

• Left tackle Jordan Davis is an all-conference contender and one of three returning starters up front. Applewhite managed to hold on to most of last year’s two-deep, in fact, and added six O-line transfers.

• Defensive tackle Ed Smith IV made 7.0 tackles at or behind the line last year and has strong pass rushing chops for his size, and 334-pound Stephen Johnson (McNeese State) is one of four defensive line transfers.

• Linebacker Blayne Myrick is among the most proven run stoppers in the league.

Few of Applewhite’s defensive transfers have a disruptive track record like JMU’s — defensive end IBK Mafe (St. Thomas) and corner Jayvon Henderson (East Tennessee State) are the most promising in that regard — but most of them are higher-upside youngsters who might develop into solid pieces. (Of course, that also might mean they get plucked away.) If either Davenport or Pyron are ready to shine and an unproven receiving corps provides some semblance of value, it sure seems like there’s enough talent here to at least continue a three-year run of bowl eligibility. Sun Belt contention will require quite a few newcomers and youngsters to break through. Considering how many did last year, there’s a chance.

Head coach: Clay Helton (fourth year, 20-19 overall)

2025 projection: 78th in SP+, 7.3 average wins (5.0 in the Sun Belt)

Clay Helton served as an early model of how portal life can work when he arrived at Georgia Southern in 2022, immediately reset the Eagles’ entire identity with a batch of key transfers and still managed to upset Nebraska and double their win total. I don’t want to overstate his success — he’s basically .500 through three years — but in an increasingly volatile G5 environment, he’s produced stable results. And despite offensive inconsistency, last year was his best yet: Georgia Southern inched up to 76th in SP+ and won eight games.

In 2025, Helton and the Eagles boast a promising combination of proven pieces and intriguing new ones. Quarterback JC French threw too many interceptions last year (11) and must improve in that regard, but in slot receivers Dalen Cobb and Josh Dallas (combined: 1,213 yards and 10 TDs), tight end River Helms (Western Kentucky) and returning third-down back OJ Arnold, the Eagles have the components of an efficient attack. That’s doubly true when you see that they have the most proven interior line in the league: Both guards, Pichon Wimbley and Caleb Cook, are all-conference contenders. A little big-play boost would be great — Dallas did average 13.4 yards per catch, and incoming transfer Dylan Gary (West Georgia) averaged 16.9 in FCS — but there are proven commodities here for coordinator Ryan Aplin.

The defense was too bend-don’t-break for my taste, but it was also the most competent defense yet for Helton and coordinator Brandon Bailey: The Eagles’ No. 91 defensive SP+ ranking was their best since 2020. Helton was evidently confident enough in what he’s returning that he mostly aimed young in the portal, bringing in five redshirt freshmen or sophomores (all former high-three or four-star recruits) among eight transfers. Senior linebacker Brendan Harrington (Appalachian State) should provide stability, but this year’s success will be driven primarily by returnees like 340-pounder Latrell Bullard up front and nickel Ayden Jackson and corners Tracy Hill Jr. and Chance Gamble in the back.

The upside here isn’t enormous, but big-play prevention and an efficient offense should drive another bowl season at worst. And if JMU indeed falters again, the Eagles’ high floor and solid veterans might make them the most likely team to take advantage in the East division. We’ll know what we need to know pretty early on: Their rough nonconference schedule (at Fresno State, at USC, Jacksonville State) will either beat them down or properly prepare them for a Sun Belt slate that begins with a trip to JMU.

Head coach: Michael Desormeaux (fourth year, 23-18 overall)

2025 projection: 74th in SP+, 7.5 average wins (4.9 in the Sun Belt)

After going 34-5 with three consecutive SP+ top-50 finishes from 2019 to 2021, Louisiana took a brief step backward in transitioning from Florida-bound Billy Napier to Michael Desormeaux. But after back-to-back six-win seasons, Desormeaux’s Ragin’ Cajuns were ready to roll again last fall. At least, they were until QB injuries wrecked their plans. They survived one injury (to Ben Wooldridge) while starting 10-2 and rising as high as 34th in SP+, but a second one (to Chandler Fields) spelled doom; in their last two games, the Ragin’ Cajuns were outscored by a combined 65-6 against Marshall and TCU.

It was a sign of confidence from Desormeaux that he didn’t load up on transfers despite losing about eight offensive and seven defensive starters. In that regard, a lot of Louisiana’s fate will be determined by players who were also in a Louisiana uniform last season. Running backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry (combined: 1,491 rushing yards and 13 TDs), right guard Jax Harrington (6-foot-4, 327 pounds), disruptive defensive lineman Jordan Lawson (5.5 sacks at 293 pounds) and edge rusher Cameron Whitfield (11.5 TFLs) are all all-Sun Belt contenders. But the Cajuns are mostly starting over in both the receiving corps (which lost six of last year’s top seven) and the secondary (which lost last year’s top four). Sophomore safety Kody Jackson seems like a keeper, but transfers might tell the tale in both the passing game and pass defense.

Among the seven transfers Desormeaux brought in are three former blue-chippers in quarterback Walker Howard (Ole Miss), receiver Shelton Sampson Jr. (LSU) and cornerback Curley Reed III (Washington). Howard was a top-50 prospect in the 2022 class, Sampson was top-75 in 2023, and both looked good in the spring. If they’re difference-makers, and both Reed and Richmond transfer Trae Tomlinson are solid at corner, Louisiana immediately becomes the West division favorite again. But if they aren’t, I’m not sure they have what they need.

Then again, maybe that’s just me overreacting to last year’s late offensive collapse. Like Napier, Desormeaux has proven himself in the recruiting department, and the Cajuns are all but guaranteed to have some of the highest levels of athleticism and physicality in the conference. The offense has ranked 50th or better in offensive SP+ five times in six years, and while the defense has slipped recently, it still has three top-50 finishes in five seasons. The bar here is high, and the combination of depth and blue-chip additions might give them a chance to clear it.

A couple of breaks away from a run

Head coach: Gerad Parker (second year, 4-8 overall)

2025 projection: 86th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.8 in the Sun Belt)

With a combination of deep and experienced line play and big-play potential, Troy won back-to-back Sun Belt titles in 2022 and 2023; the Trojans ranked in the defensive SP+ top 30 in both seasons and rose to 26th overall in 2023. In two seasons, Jon Sumrall proved that, with the right set of hands in charge, this chip-on-shoulder program can absolutely shine.

Gerad Parker could still prove himself, but he had very little chance in 2024. Virtually every proven playmaker was gone, as were most of both lines. The offense remained efficient thanks primarily to quarterback Matthew Caldwell, receiver Devonte Ross and running back Damien Taylor, but the Trojans stopped making big plays and started allowing a ton of them, and almost nothing worked during a 1-7 start.

The offense clicked late as Troy won three of its last four, but Caldwell (Texas), Ross (Penn State) and Taylor (Ole Miss) all departed for big-time schools. The Trojans have solid experience and excellent size in the trenches: Left guard Eli Russ (6-foot-4, 313 pounds) will anchor the offensive line, tackle Julian Peterson (eight TFLs at 310 pounds) leads the defensive front, and Parker added five power-conference transfers on the two lines. They will look the part physically, and veteran quarterback Goose Crowder, who began 2024 as the starter, should be decent. But the skill corps is drastically unproven. Three receiver transfers — Rara Thomas (Georgia), Tray Taylor (Coastal Carolina) and Kristian Tate (Delta State) — will need to click, and former blue-chipper (and 2024 transfer) Mojo Dortch will need to provide more than the two catches and minus-2 yards he managed last season. The running back corps, meanwhile, is almost completely devoid of known quantities.

Between Peterson, linebacker Jordan Stringer and safety Justin Powe, the spine of the defense should be solid, and the run defense should be disruptive. But even with Powe and a delightful nickel in Devin Lafayette, Troy ranked just 112th in yards allowed per dropback and 126th in completion rate allowed last season. As with the receiving corps, transfers — corners Kaleno Levine (Missouri State) and Jaquez White (Washburn), safeties Steven Sannieniola (Vanderbilt) and David Daniel-Sisavanh (Georgia) — will play a big role in propping up the pass defense and telling Troy’s tale in 2025.

Head coach: G.J. Kinne (third year, 16-10 overall)

2025 projection: 93rd in SP+, 6.1 average wins (4.1 in the Sun Belt)

It’s weird that we’ve gotten this far and haven’t yet brought up the team that finished 48th in SP+ and nearly beat CFP-bound Arizona State last year, right? That probably tells you how much of last year’s Texas State team is no longer in San Marcos. G.J. Kinne both inherited and defied perennially low expectations at TXST in each of the last two years, and he’ll have a chance to do so again after losing his offensive coordinator (Mack Leftwich), starting quarterback (Jordan McCloud), leading rusher (Ismail Mahdi), top three receivers, three offensive line starters and 14 of the 18 defenders with at least 250 snaps last season.

Kinne is a fearless transfer portal aficionado. He brought in another 36 transfers this season, including three quarterbacks (Pitt’s Nate Yarnell, SMU’s Keldric Luster and former Auburn blue-chipper Holden Geriner), eight skill corps guys and 19 defenders. This year’s transfer haul is a mix of semi-proven G5 or smaller-school guys — running back Greg Burrell (UNLV), slot receiver Tiaquelin Mims (Southern Miss), linebackers Ayden Jones (Prairie View A&M) and Cole Nilles (Bryant), corners Jaden Rios (East Texas A&M) and Malik Willis (Campbell), safety Javis Mynatt (Wofford) — and young and unproven power-conference transfers. There are some former blue-chippers like Geriner, receiver Mavin Anderson (Cal), defensive tackle Bryce Carter (Virginia) and linebacker Terrence Cooks (TCU) in the mix as well.

Kinne has quickly grown accustomed to asking members of a transient roster for immediate contributions, but when it came time to replace the Texas Tech-bound Leftwich, he went with a familiar face: Landon Keopple is a former small-school coordinator who joined up with Kinne about five years ago and understands Kinne’s modern spread as well as anyone.

A Kinne team is going to score points, but defensive improvement was a key piece of last year’s first-ever top-50 finish. Coordinator Dexter McCoil returns star end Kalil Alexander (11 run stops, 6.5 sacks), and corner Trez Moore and safeties Ryan Nolan and Darius Jackson were decent rotation pieces last year, but most of the 2025 lineup will be new. That’s an opportunity for improvement or regression. My guess is that the Bobcats defy projections once again, but if the defense falls off, that will be difficult.

Head coach: Tim Beck (third year, 14-12 overall)

2025 projection: 95th in SP+, 6.0 average wins (4.1 in the Sun Belt)

The Coastal Carolina of the last couple of years — with Tim Beck replacing Liberty-bound Jamey Chadwell in 2023 — has reminded me a lot of the first couple of Louisiana teams after Billy Napier: fine but distinctly underwhelming. After slipping to 74th in SP+ in Chadwell’s final season, the Chanticleers held steady at 68th in 2023 but last season slipped to an injury-plagued 99th, with both the offense and defense regressing. Lineup stability was a huge impediment: Only four players started all 13 games.

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Nothing feels definitively wrong with the Chants, but you could see the talent coming together at Louisiana, and the Cajuns’ offense was consistently solid even during the two-year lull. Things appear a little less proven at Coastal: Neither unit has been consistent, quarterback Ethan Vasko (Liberty) and running back Braydon Bennett (Virginia Tech) transferred, and of 24 defenders who started at least one game (again: serious lineup instability here) only six return.

But I love what Beck did in the portal this offseason, especially on defense. He landed five players who made at least five TFLs at their last school — ends Noah Arinze (New Mexico State) and Jordan Mack (Seton Hill), linebackers Luke Murphy (Eastern Michigan) and Dontae Lunan (Albany) and safety Jacob Robinson (Emory & Henry) — and added four former blue-chippers as well: end Darrion Henry-Young (Kentucky), safety DeAndre Boykins (North Carolina) and corners Ja’Marion Wayne (Missouri) and Robby Washington (Miami). Throw in decent holdovers in tackle Sawyer Goram-Welch, linebacker Shane Bruce and big safety Xamarion Gordon, and it feels like there’s a lot to work with here.

I’m less blown away by the additions on offense, though each of two quarterbacks, Emmett Brown (San Jose State) and MJ Morris (Maryland), seems to have decent potential. But quantity could create quality: Among three veteran wideouts (Jameson Tucker, Cameron Wright and Bryson Graves), Ball State transfer Malcolm Gillie and three FCS transfers who combined for 2,151 yards last year (Western Illinois’ Eli Aragon, West Georgia’s Karmello English and Furman’s Colton Hinton), a strong receiving corps should come together. And up front, some combination of six linemen with starting experience, four transfers and a JUCO should create a solid two-deep. Breakthrough coming? I can’t promise that, but it does feel like the ingredients have added up.

Head coach: Dowell Loggains (first year)

2025 projection: 98th in SP+, 6.2 average wins (4.0 in the Sun Belt)

Appalachian State doesn’t do “losing seasons.” Before 2024, the Mountaineers’ last sub-.500 season came in 2013, when they stumbled to 4-8 in their final FCS campaign and their first year after the legendary Jerry Moore’s retirement. The time before that? 1993! But things fell apart for Shawn Clark last fall, and App State looked like far more of an also-ran than we’re used to.

In an existential moment, schools often look within for the answer, asking someone with deep ties to rally the program and save the day. App State went in the other direction. Dowell Loggains spent the first 16 years of his coaching career in the NFL before moving to the college ranks in 2021. In 2023-24, he served as South Carolina’s offensive coordinator. In the year before his arrival, the Gamecocks ranked 25th in offensive SP+; in his two seasons there, they were 58th and 35th, respectively.

He can recruit, though. Loggains’ first App State roster lost more than 40 players to the transfer portal, but among the more than 30 incoming transfers are a number of former high-three or four-star recruits: quarterbacks AJ Swann (LSU) and JJ Kohl (Iowa State), running backs Rashod Dubinion (Arkansas) and Khalifa Keith (Tennessee), receiver Davion Dozier (Arkansas), tight end Izayah Cummings (Louisville), linebacker Brayshawn Littlejohn (Missouri), corner Emory Floyd (South Carolina), nickel Ja’Den McBurrows (Michigan) and others. Loggains also dipped into the FCS well to land a few transfers, including 1,000-yard receiver Jaden Barnes (Austin Peay) and defensive end Joseph Bakhole (East Tennessee).

Few on the roster have actually proven themselves at the FBS level. Offensive guards Jayden Ramsey and Griffin Scroggs and defensive ends Thomas Davis and Shawn Collins are good, and the secondary is experienced if nothing else. Swann, Kohl and freshman Noah Gillon evidently all had solid moments in spring practice — funny how everyone’s always good in spring ball, huh? — and no one’s going to doubt the athletic potential of this roster. The potential seems to give the Mountaineers a pretty high ceiling, and the drastically unproven roster gives them a scary-low floor. This school doesn’t know how to handle losing because it hasn’t had to; that makes this just about the most interesting team in the conference in 2025.

Head coach: Butch Jones (fifth year, 19-31 overall)

2025 projection: 100th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (3.6 in the Sun Belt)

There was a time when Arkansas State openly talked about becoming the Boise State of the South. Hell, back in 2012, as the Red Wolves were finishing up a second straight 10-win season, attendance was topping 31,000, nearly BSU-esque levels. The Red Wolves averaged 9.3 wins while hiring three straight single-year up-and-comers (Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin), then settled into a 7.3-win average in seven seasons under Blake Anderson. When he stumbled, ASU chose someone on the other side of the age-and-ambition line: former Tennessee head coach Butch Jones, who has averaged 4.8 wins. Attendance has perked up as the win total has improved, but it was still 28% lower last year than it had been a decade earlier.

That makes capitalizing on last year’s eight-win campaign pretty important. Fans were treated to five home wins, all in dramatic fashion; it was the kind of season that can rekindle interest. It was also almost impossible to replicate. SP+ basically saw a four-win team that accidentally won eight games, and then that team lost about 17 starters. Jones has to stare up at a much higher bar while rebuilding his roster again.

ASU’s offense is generally perky under coordinator Keith Heckendorf, and that shouldn’t change with quarterback Jaylen Raynor, 1,000-yard receiver Corey Rucker and running back Ja’Quez Cross joined by fun newcomers like receiver Jaylen Bonelli (Wagner).

But the defense is completely starting over. Just one starter returns (plus another from 2023), and Jones had to find a lot of portal answers. I do think he found some good ones: End Demarcus Hendricks (Texas A&M-Kingsville) and tackle Cody Sigler (West Alabama) were double-digit TFL guys, and cornerback Joedrick Lewis (SE Missouri State) had a huge season in 2023. The two primary returning pieces — end Bryan Whitehead and linebacker Javante Mackey — are disruptive too, and players like tackle Gavin Ransaw (Coastal) and safety AG McGhee (Marshall) should be useful. ASU hasn’t ranked in the double digits in defensive SP+ since 2018, but there’s some talent here. Still, if last year’s good fortune turns, it’s going to be awfully hard for ASU to approach eight wins.

Head coach: Ricky Rahne (fifth year, 20-30 overall)

2025 projection: 103rd in SP+, 4.8 average wins (3.6 in the Sun Belt)

Be it Bobby Wilder (2014-19) or Ricky Rahne (2021-present) leading the way, Old Dominion seems to have found its level.

Wilder: 31-42 (.425 win percentage), 106.5 average SP+ ranking

Rahne: 20-30 (.400 win percentage), 103.5 average SP+ ranking

Rahne’s results have been more consistent, for better (no 1-11 seasons like Wilder) or worse (exactly seven losses in three of four years), but on average the product has remained the same.

If you squint just right, however, you might see hints of progress. ODU’s No. 95 SP+ ranking last year was its best since 2016, and six of seven losses were by a touchdown or less (including a season-opening 23-19 defeat to South Carolina). The Monarchs are in the top half of the conference in returning production too. The offense improved despite having to start three different quarterbacks, and redshirt freshman Colton Joseph looked promising there in eight starts. The offensive line is experienced and physical, and thanks to the return of all-world tackling machine Jason Henderson — see chart below — after a 2024 injury, the defensive front six returns four guys capable of double-digit TFLs: linebackers Henderson, Koa Naotala and Mario Thompson and defensive end Kris Trinidad.

TruMediaThe Monarchs have quite a few proven entities, but progress in 2025 will be determined by the success of two rebuilds: those of the skill corps and secondary.Last season, eight ODU RBs and WRs touched the ball at least 20 times; seven are gone. Running back Devin Roche is now the grizzly veteran of the skill corps despite a) being a sophomore and b) producing just 326 yards from scrimmage in 2024. Rahne brought in a pair of transfers (former Utah/Tulane WR Sidney Mbanasor and former Florida TE Dawson Johnson), but he’s hoping he struck gold in the overlooked JUCO ranks, where he grabbed one running back, four WRs and a tight end.

It’s a similar story in the secondary. Seven of last year’s top eight are gone, leaving part-time starting safety Mario Easterly and a pair of potentially promising former reserves in Jeremy Mack Jr. and Daevon Iles. Rahne again brought in a pair of four-year transfers and a big load of five JUCOs (including onetime TCU signee Kollin Collier).

Head coach: Tony Gibson (first year)

2025 projection: 99th in SP+, 5.7 average wins (3.4 in the Sun Belt)

The balance of power doesn’t usually change much in college football, but it can shift in a heartbeat in the Sun Belt. Both the 2021 (Louisiana) and 2023 champions (Troy) lost their head coaches and won seven fewer games as defending champs. And now the 2024 champion is starting over like almost no one ever has.

With Charles Huff’s departure and the player exodus that followed, Marshall is looking at the following:

• No passer on the roster threw for a yard last season.

• No returnee rushed for a yard.

• Two returnees caught passes.

• Those responsible for 49 of 65 O-line starts are gone.

• One of eight defensive linemen with at least 50 snaps returns.

• The total linebacker snaps returning is three.

• Two of 13 DBs with at least 30 snaps return.

This is mind-boggling turnover. In response, Marshall elected to lean heavily into its West Virginia roots. Glenville State graduate Tony Gibson, former defensive coordinator at NC State and West Virginia (and, back at the turn of the century, West Virginia Tech), leads the way. Glenville State grad Rod Smith, former protege of current and former WVU head coach Rich Rodriguez, is the offensive coordinator. Marshall graduate (and three-time former Marshall assistant) Shannon Morrison is the defensive coordinator. I guess if your roster has no roots whatsoever in the area, you should find coaches who do.

Gibson & Co. did their best to find experience where they could. In Zion Turner (UConn/Jacksonville State) and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Florida/Syracuse), they grabbed QBs with a combined 2,039 career passing yards. Running backs Jo’shon Barbie (McNeese State) and Tony Mathis Jr. (WVU/Houston) each have more than 1,000 career rushing yards. Among 10 receiver transfers, Adrian Norton (Akron) and Ben Turner (West Liberty) each had more than 800 yards last year. Three offensive linemen and nine defenders saw heavy smaller-school action, and a few — 6-foot-9 offensive lineman Tyler McDuffie (Hampton), 320-pound defensive tackle Naquan Crowder (California-PA), linebacker Jalen Marshall (Wofford), corners Boogie Trotter (Tennessee State) and Louikenzy Jules (Charleston), safety Cam Smith (Jackson State) — played at a particularly high level.

You can find talent on this roster, but almost none of it suited up in Kelly green and white last year. That makes the Thundering Herd almost impossible to project.

Just looking for a path to 6-6

Head coach: Bryant Vincent (second year, 5-7 overall)

2025 projection: 116th in SP+, 4.4 average wins (2.8 in the Sun Belt)

In the new House settlement, schools will be allowed to share up to $20.5 million in revenue with its athletes in a given year. Louisiana-Monroe reports total revenue of around $20 million in a given year. This school is wonderfully bull-headed in its insistence on playing FBS ball, which makes the rewards for doing so both rare and wonderful. The Warhawks’ 2012 season, in which they beat a top-10 Arkansas team on the way to eight wins, is one of my favorite underdog campaigns of the 21st century. They haven’t bowled since.

Going 5-7 last year was a genuine victory, though it came with the disappointment of a 5-1 start and an 0-6 finish. Bryant Vincent helped to resurrect the UAB program and brings serious underdog bona fides to the table; he found relative success with a combination of a run-heavy offense and the school’s best defense in six years.

The defense returns 11 of the 17 players with at least 200 snaps, including stars in end Kevontay Wells, OLB Billy Pullen and corner David Godsey Jr. Vincent added eight transfers and six JUCOs as well, so depth should be solid. On offense, sophomore quarterback Aidan Armenta returns, but that only means so much because ULM is going to run the ball as much as it’s allowed to.

Ahmad Hardy transferred after rushing for 1,351 yards as a freshman, but his success drew in four running back transfers — including Richmond 1,300-yard rusher Zach Palmer-Smith — and freshman D’Shaun Ford, one of the most highly touted recruits ULM has seen. Three of six regular linemen return, in addition to one transfer and three JUCOs. Last year’s rushing-and-D formula will be this year’s rushing-and-D formula.

Head coach: Dell McGee (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 114th in SP+, 3.7 average wins (2.4 in the Sun Belt)

All things considered, Dell McGee did one hell of a job last season. Hired after spring practice had already begun in February 2024, he navigated through massive post-spring turnover, then crafted a team capable of upsetting Vanderbilt in September and Texas State in November. His Panthers weren’t good — between those upsets were seven straight losses — but they were occasionally spicy, and things ended up merely bad, not apocalyptic.

McGee is still searching for stability in Year 2. He needed two tries to land a defensive coordinator — he went with Travis Pearson when Deron Wilson left for Florida after two weeks — and he lost nearly 40 more transfers. Depth could be an issue, but there’s upside. Quarterback Christian Veilleux and explosive receiver Ted Hurst both return, and McGee added a stable of exciting RB transfers, led by Jordon Simmons (6.0 yards per carry at Akron) and former blue-chippers Branson Robinson (Georgia) and Djay Braswell (South Carolina). The offensive line returns only one starter but welcomes six transfers and two JUCOs.

Thanks to Hurst and a solid secondary, GSU created bigger big plays than its opponents. But safety D-Icey Hopkins is the only regular defensive back returning, and McGee signed an almost conservative three transfers and two JUCOs. There’s experience in the front six, but last year’s best unit is starting over.

McGee had to know what he was getting himself into when taking the job, and while he’s still navigating through bumpy waters, his team should flash some upside if it can survive a rough early stretch — among their first five games are trips to Ole Miss and Vandy and visits from Memphis and JMU — with morale intact.

Head coach: Charles Huff (first year)

2025 projection: 128th in SP+, 3.4 average wins (2.1 in the Sun Belt)

What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! Two years after a semi-promising 7-6 campaign, everything fell apart for Will Hall at Southern Miss last season as the Golden Eagles plummeted to 1-11 and 133rd in SP+. That Charles Huff so quickly fled Marshall for USM might speak to the strange relationship he had with his former employer, but that’s Southern Miss’ gain. After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, Huff has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. The only returning starters: receiver Davis Dalton, right tackle Greg Nunnery and defensive tackle Brodarius Lewis. Hell, they’re almost the only returnees from the two-deep.

Former Marshall players — especially quarterback Braylon Braxton, receivers Chuck Montgomery and Carl Chester and defensive backs Josh Moten, Ahmere Foster and Ian Foster — will be key to early success, such as it exists. Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson brought some players from his recent Utah State head coaching stint, too, most notably receiver Grant Page and guard Aloali’i Maui. SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.

After winning between six and nine games every year from 1994 to 2010, Southern Miss has been dramatically unstable for nearly 15 years. Even if Huff steadies the ship, it’s probably going to take him a bit. But if nothing else, the Eagles should enjoy a bit more upside in 2025.