Fucking amazing podcast by Stephan Godfrey and Parker Flemming (@statsofwar). The talk scheme, they talk advanced analytics, and just general narrative around offensive line.

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This summary won’t do the pod justice, you should listen yourself, but the big takeaways:

  • For the first time in the history of CFB, there is evidence that – specifically on the offensive line – raw talent matters far more than continunity. This is evidenced by the fact that there is an inverse relationship between snaps played together (amongst offensive linemen) and winning percentage. The explanation is that if you have 5 guys playing together 85% of the time, it’s likely not because those 5 guys work so well together; it’s because you don’t have any depth, and in all likelihood there is a weakness amongst those 5 guys.
  • Offensive schemes are simplifying because offensive linemen are more evenly distributed across the sport. The RPO is the easiest way to deal with this problem (along with shifts/misdirection/motion). They talk a lot about the % of protections called, etc
  • When looking for OL in the portal, you need a scheme fit for the player. As a result, coaches are dumbing down their offenses in order to make it easier for OL to quickly learn the system. We’re seeing less variety in offensive schemes/playcalls (per PFF – again, there is data backing this up). Disappointing for fans that offenses will likely continue to become more homogenous over the next five years.
  • Paradoxically, the dearth of offensive linemen means that development is more important than ever before, but due to the portal, it’s even harder to retain (and thus develop) talent than ever before. Obviously, no one has solved for this issue yet.

Really fascinating listen, highly recommend.

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