The Athletic has live coverage of Miami vs. Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl game.

For all the angst caused by the tumultuous evolution of college football into something that is not quite professional sports but definitely not what it used to be, the effects on what happens on the field have been all kinds of fun.

The new rules — or maybe the lack of rules — permitting players to be paid and leaving them free to move from team to team have produced a final four like never before.

This week’s College Football Playoff semifinals matching Ole Miss against Miami and Oregon against Indiana provide a fitting conclusion to what can comfortably be described as the most unpredictable season of the Playoff era. For the first time, the final four includes no recent national title winners and no preseason top-five teams.

The main criticism of the CFP’s four-team era was that the national title race had become too predictable. By expanding the field to 12, the hope was to bring some new blood beyond just the blue bloods into the spotlight.

Two years in, mission accomplished. In last week’s quarterfinals, Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama — combined 11 national titles since 2002 — were all eliminated.

The bigger field, though, is not so much the reason for the power shift as the vehicle for showcasing how much name, image and likeness compensation and unrestricted transfers have flattened the talent curve.

“Teams are built differently today than they were five years ago,” former Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said. “There’s no question about that. I don’t know if it’s leveled the playing field, but it’s moved talent around, following money.”

The margins between top teams have shrunk, intangibles such as fit, culture and identity are more impactful than ever and the number of teams that can aspire to win a national championship seems to have expanded, fortuitously, along with the CFP.

“Well, it is the new normal,” said former Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, who along with Bowlsby was one of the architects of the 12-team format. “Indiana, they are a new powerhouse. I would argue that some traditional powerhouses aren’t flourishing as much. You’re changing out who’s in that position but are there really more (national title contenders)? I don’t know?

“It feels like there are more teams with an opportunity to be in the top echelon.”

This newfound unpredictability comes on the heels of maybe the most predictable period in modern college football history as it relates to the national championship race: the super-team era, dominated by Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty and a small group of challengers.

From 2009 to 2022, the Crimson Tide won six national titles and lost three championship games in the Bowl Championship Series and the four-team CFP. Clemson broke up Bama’s run by winning two CFP championships. There was a streak of four consecutive seasons in which Dabo Swinney’s Tigers and Saban’s Tide played in the CFP (they split those games). Kirby Smart and Georgia finally displaced Alabama and won two straight titles in 2021 and ‘22.

Sprinkle in titles for loaded Florida State (2013), Ohio State (2014) and LSU (2019), and the only national champion that could be viewed as legitimately surprising during Saban’s 17 seasons at Alabama was Auburn in 2010. The Tigers were ranked No. 22 in the AP poll to start the season and went undefeated behind the force of nature that was Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton.

Since the CFP started in 2014, the lowest preseason ranking of any national champion is No. 6 by LSU and Joe Burrow in 2019.

Every previous CFP semifinal has had at least two preseason top-five teams. All but one CFP semifinal (2015) had at least three preseason top-10 teams. Last year, the 12-team CFP debuted with four preseason top-10 teams in the semifinals.

This year’s CFP final four has no team that was ranked better than No. 7 (Oregon) in the preseason AP poll. Miami started 10th; Indiana was No. 20 and Ole Miss was No. 21. Meanwhile, three of the preseason AP top five (Texas, Penn State and Clemson) did not even make the CFP. The Tigers and Nittany Lions will finish the season unranked.

The combined average ranking of the semifinal teams is 12.6, the second-highest of any final four — with a caveat.

TCU in 2022 was one of two teams during the four-team CFP to make the field after starting the season unranked, along with Michigan in 2021. The Horned Frogs were not even among the others receiving votes in the preseason poll, so counting their ranking as 49th (48 teams received votes) skews the number for a group that otherwise included three preseason top-eight teams.

Every previous CFP semifinal has also included at least three teams that claim at least one national title from a major poll (AP or coaches), BCS or CFP. Miami is the only program among the four still remaining that has even one of those. The Hurricanes stacked five titles from 1983 to 2001 but haven’t sniffed one since.

It has been well-established that the very best teams now are not as good as the juggernauts that typically won national titles during the four-team CFP. The difference is especially noticeable in the SEC, which could be looking at three straight seasons without a team in the title game if Ole Miss loses.

In lieu of stacked teams that overwhelm opponents with talent, and with rosters turning over quicker than ever, everything else that helps determine success is amplified.

“Vibes is probably as good a way to go about describing it as any,” ESPN analyst and former Georgia Tech running back Roddy Jones said. “What’s the motivation? What’s the culture? How well coached are you?”

Stacking highly ranked high school recruiting classes remains the best way to get good and stay good in college football, but it is no longer the only way to compete for a national championship.

All of the remaining CFP teams have a starting lineup of at least 42 percent transfers. The four CFP teams with the most homegrown starters (Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Alabama) were knocked out in the first two rounds.

An Indiana-Ole Miss national title game would match the teams in the field with the highest percentage of transfer starters. The Hoosiers check in at 65.4 percent, and the Rebels lead the pack at 66.3 percent.

“If you look at the four teams that are remaining, they all know exactly who they are,” ESPN analyst Greg McElroy said. “That’s really helpful, and they all know how to recruit exactly to what they need. So I think that it allows them to be hyper-focused on the players in the portal that can help them win.”

Players getting paid can also affect locker room chemistry and become another variable to be managed.

“I think it is all of the intangible things that become more important,” Jones said. “That’s not to say one school just because they have it one year will have it the next. I think it is so team dependent. Leadership dependent. It is circumstance dependent.”

So this is a good thing for college football, right?

Prepare for TV ratings to possibly say otherwise. The lack of traditional powers in this year’s semifinals — unlike last year, when Texas played Ohio State and Penn State played Notre Dame — might not draw in as many casual fans.

“I think it’s always helpful to have, like, the Death Star,” said McElroy, who was the quarterback of Saban’s first championship Alabama team in 2009. “It’s always helpful to have the team that everybody hates for just the sport’s consumability.”

Still, it might be a trade-off worth making in the long run.

“The engagement of fan bases and believing that they have a legitimate shot to win a championship is greater than ever,” Jones said.

Of course, Indiana’s meteoric and unprecedented rise under coach Curt Cignetti might just lead to more frustration among fans as schools unsuccessfully chase a Hoosier-esque turnaround.

“I think the trend is that there will be more schools among the willing to throw money at NIL, and in doing so, attract good players,” Bowlsby said. “And if you can more broadly distribute the best players, you will have more upsets and more of the (previously) downtrodden playing deep into the tournament.”

On the flip side, many schools are likely to get priced out as the ante to get in the game goes up. And the current administration and oversight of college football has never been more discombobulated. The current structure is tenuous, and the future is uncertain.

“It’s a little crazy right now, but you know, the college football fan that wants to watch whatever’s on and be dazzled by what happens in the end of the game, I don’t know that it could be any better than it is right now,” Bowlsby said.

The modern landscape of college football often focuses on Name, Image and Likeness valuations or immediate playing time when top prospects enter the transfer portal. Yet for the nation’s highest-ranked available quarterback, the recruitment process has taken a clinical turn, prioritizing long-term health over immediate impact. Programs chasing the most coveted arm on the market are pausing to ensure his physical durability matches his statistical production.

Recruiting visits typically revolve around photo shoots, steak dinners and campus tours designed to woo elite talent. In this specific high-stakes recruitment, however, the itinerary includes mandatory stops with team physicians and athletic trainers.

Coaching staffs are exercising caution as they attempt to secure a commitment from a player who could redefine their offense if he can stay on the field.

A new report indicates that every university hosting this prospect is conducting thorough physicals to gauge a recovery timeline. The concern centers on availability for spring practice, a crucial period for any transfer trying to learn a new playbook and build chemistry with receivers. While the talent is undeniable, the medical reality has added a layer of complexity to a frenzied race for his signature.

Medical clearance becomes primary hurdle for Sam Leavitt

Sam Leavitt, the former Arizona State standout and the top-ranked quarterback in the transfer portal according to On3, is undergoing medical evaluations at each of his campus visits. The scrutiny stems from a foot injury that ended his 2025 season prematurely.

During an appearance on the Crain & Company Podcast, Pete Nakos of On3 emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the timeline, stating that “every school that’s bringing him in on a visit is doing a medical evaluation to understand what his timeline looks like for recovery.”

The timeline for Leavitt remains murky following surgery for a Lisfranc ligament tear he suffered in October. While schools are eager to sign the talented passer, Nakos added that “it is unclear if he’d be available for spring football” after missing the back half of the season. It is currently unclear if Leavitt will be ready to take snaps when spring camps open across the country.

This medical uncertainty hovered over his recent trip to Baton Rouge. Leavitt visited LSU earlier this week and was spotted at a basketball game with head coach Lane Kiffin.

Despite the hospitality, the Tigers’ medical staff likely spent significant time assessing his surgically repaired right foot. The evaluation process is standard protocol, but carries greater weight given the severity of Lisfranc injuries.

The rigorous testing continues as Leavitt heads to Knoxville. Tennessee is the latest program to host the quarterback, hoping to add his experience to its roster. The Volunteers are in the market for a proven starter, but, like LSU, they must weigh his rehabilitation schedule against their need for immediate competition at quarterback. Kentucky also shared a visit with Leavitt.

Read more on College Football HQ

After a hectic 48 hours, quarterback Demond Williams Jr. is staying put at Washington.

Williams announced Tuesday that he intended to enter the transfer portal, but reversed course Thursday night, revealing on social media that he will remain with the Huskies.

“After thoughtful reflection with my family, I am excited to announce that I will continue my football journey at the University of Washington,” Williams wrote. “I am fully committed and focused on contributing to what we are building.”

The standout quarterback became the latest face of the debate surrounding name, image and likeness (NIL) and its enforcement when he announced that he was entering the transfer portal. Williams’ announcement came just four days after he signed an NIL deal to remain at Washington that was reportedly worth $4 million for one season. 

It was reported shortly after that Washington planned to pursue legal action against Williams for breach of contract. Williams’ agent, Doug Hendrickson, dropped him as a client on Thursday. 

“I have made the decision to end my representation of Demond Williams Jr. effective immediately due to philosophical differences,” Hendrickson wrote in a social media post. “Demond is an incredible talent and we wish him and his family the best in their future endeavors.”

Hendrickson is also the agent for Washington head coach Jedd Fisch. 

Williams just completed his sophomore season at Washington, which was his first as the Huskies’ full-time starter. He helped Washington go 9-4, completing 69.5% of his passes for 3,065 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He also proved to be one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, rushing for 611 yards and six touchdowns. 

Demond Williams Jr. finds Denzel Boston for a 23-yard TD

Following a strong first season as a starter, Williams has been viewed as a potential Heisman candidate for the 2026 season. FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt placed Williams fifth in his initial Heisman rankings for next season. 

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If you’re a sports fan, you may be unaware of a very important fact: the College Football Playoff semifinals start tonight.

There are several reasons for why the actual CFP has fallen off the radar for sports fans. Week 18 of the NFL season and the first week of the NFL playoffs always present huge storylines, let alone the coaching carousel that is already underway. Then there’s the fact that the College Football Playoff had the spotlight to itself around the New Year’s Day holiday, which has historically been dedicated to the sport. Even the NBA has snuck into the headlines with the first blockbuster trade of the season, with Trae Young being dealt from the Hawks to the Wizards.

Miami and Ole Miss square off on Thursday night at the Fiesta Bowl while Indiana will play Oregon in an all-Big Ten affair at the Peach Bowl. But unless you’ve been following each program closely, you likely haven’t heard too much in the way of actual previews or analysis about the games.

Perhaps the biggest reason as to why the College Football Playoff semifinals have gone missing from our collective consciousness? Transfer portal and NIL drama are sucking up all the oxygen in and around college football.

Much of the consternation in college football over the current calendar is related to the timing of the transfer portal opening in early January. It’s why Lane Kiffin felt the need to controversially bail on Ole Miss and move to LSU with his team still very much alive in the national championship hunt. It’s why players on playoff teams are entering the portal before their season is done. And it’s why so many headlines and social media chatter is being dedicated to what will happen next season before this season is done.

The top ranked Indiana Hoosiers are a perfect example. Perhaps after their Rose Bowl thumping of Alabama, everyone has assumed that their job is done even though they have two more games to win before they can claim a national championship. But the focus right now is at least being shared between what Indiana is doing in the transfer portal for next season and Mark Cuban stepping up to fund NIL efforts and finishing the job for this season.

“Indiana is cleaning up in the transfer portal right now, even while they’re preparing for a National Semifinal.”

More from @joelklatt on how Curt Cignetti is reloading with @IndianaFootball. pic.twitter.com/CjFz9PnSaG

— The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football on FOX Pod (@JoelKlattShow) January 6, 2026

NEW: Billionaire Indiana alumnus Mark Cuban is donating to the Hoosiers 2026 transfer portal class, @FOS reports💰

“Let’s just say they are happier this year than last year.”https://t.co/mXEX3QniMt pic.twitter.com/u5QgP3DQkC

— On3 (@On3sports) January 7, 2026

Of course, that’s nothing compared to the drama at Ole Miss, where the transfer portal isn’t just about Rebels players but coaches. The shadowy figure of Lane Kiffin is still looming large over the Ole Miss playoff run. And as Jimbo Fisher pointed out in a scathing condemnation of Kiffin’s behavior, the drama around which assistants will and won’t coach Ole Miss in the semifinals is likely because Kiffin thought his former team would lose to Georgia and be done with their season. On top of that, the future of star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was a huge question mark before he finally “agreed a new deal” with Ole Miss if he is granted eligibility to play next season.

Look around college football and so many headlines and social media conversations are geared towards what is happening in the transfer portal and not whether Oregon can avenge their loss to Indiana or whether Miami can physically dominate Ole Miss the way they did Ohio State.

Washington quarterback Demond Williams has caused a firestorm for breaking an agreement with his current school to potentially take more money from elsewhere.

Ohio State has lost several former four and five star recruits to the portal after their surprising quarterfinal exit to the Hurricanes.

Texas Tech landed top portal quarterback Brendan Sorsby with a $5 million offer.

New Penn State coach Matt Campbell has taken a huge chunk of his former Iowa State team with him to Happy Valley.

All of this transfer portal news is a boom for recruiting sites and others that make player movement part of the core of their coverage. But mainstream outlets are also forced to balance out their CFP output with daily updates, portal trackers, and headlines.

With the transfer portal only open from January 2-16, the college football world has no choice but to try to spin all the plates at once and keep track of all the news. Not only is it insane for the schools and programs to try to balance, especially those still competing for a title, but it’s insane for the health of the overall sport and keeping the focus where it should be.

The transfer portal will open and shut entirely within the College Football Playoff. Could you imagine a universe where NFL free agency kicks off the day after the Divisional Round and shuts down a few days before the Super Bowl? Could you imagine the NBA holding its draft during the middle of the NBA Finals? It would be ludicrous decision making that no sane person would ever sign off on — not just because it’s a nonsensical way to run a sport, but because it would take the attention off of its actual championship.

We are human beings. We are naturally inclined to be sucked in by drama. And the transfer portal fulfills all of our primal needs. The flips, the mysteries, the betrayals, the shocks, the surprises. It fulfills our natural thirst for intrigue and excitement in a way that breaking down Miami’s pass rush against the Ole Miss OL simply can’t. And the fact that it’s a true wild west experience with no rules, guardrails, or boundaries makes it all the more tantalizing.

College football has never been more popular as a sport across the nation in spite of so many unforced errors and own goals. Nobody in their right mind would want to divert attention away from crowning a champion during what should be the pinnacle of the sport and the entire reason for its existence. And yet, that’s exactly how college football is currently operating.

The simple fix, as suggested by Oregon coach Dan Lanning, is to move the College Football Playoff earlier so that it ends on New Year’s Day and the portal can be a true offseason activity. That way, the hearts and minds of the college football universe don’t have to be so divided and we can actually celebrate a national champion for one season before actually moving on to the next. Of course, since that seems like the right and easy thing to do, don’t hold your breath waiting on it to actually happen.

Q4 3:13 – Ole Miss 27, Miami 24

Huge mistake by Miami again. Trinidad Chambliss fires incomplete toward Harrison Wallace III but Ja’Boree Antoine had a hand full of jersey, drawing a pass interference penalty.

Three plays later, after a 19-yard scramble by Chambliss, Ole Miss finds the end zone. Chambliss calmly connects with Dae’Quan Wright for a 24-yard touchdown to put the Rebels up by a point.

The two-point conversion is good too as Chambliss finds Caleb Odom wide open.