The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Lance McCullers ($8,500) Houston Astros (-174) vs. Chicago White Sox

It’s a weird slate for pitching, as we have the highest projection in both median and ceiling on a starter with a 4.44 ERA through six starts after missing the entirety of the prior three seasons. That would be McCullers, and despite that negative framing of his situation, it’s still difficult to argue with him as the top option.

It’s largely due to the matchup with the White Sox, who, despite marginal improvement in recent weeks, still rank 29th in the majors against right-handed pitching. Their 3.4-run total is the lowest on the slate. That’s helpful for McCullers, since he’s struggled somewhat in run prevention but has a borderline-elite 28.9% strikeout rate on the season.

Beyond that, as a blanket rule, you should almost always roster an $8,500 pitcher when his opponent has the lowest total on the slate. At that price tag, we don’t need a huge day from McCullers for him to pay off. He’s also coming off back-to-back 27+ point games, so a big game is well within reach against the White Sox.

Besides his lead in median and ceiling projections, he’s just shy of the top Pts/Sal projection on the slate. That makes him a strong play in all contest types.

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MLB DFS Value Pick

Kyle Harrison ($6,600) San Francisco Giants (-235) at Colorado Rockies

There was a time that we almost always faded pitchers from both teams at Coors Field. That’s no longer, since the Rockies offense is so bad that we can overlook the boost to bats provided by their home ballpark. That goes double against lefties.

Colorado’s 71 wRC+ against righties is the worst in the league by 12 points. Against lefties, their mark drops to a hilariously bad 53. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the majors this season despite playing in the best hitter’s park while striking out at the second-highest rate.

That means playing pitchers against them is a good idea as a rule. Even if, like Harrison, they’re fairly mediocre. The 23-year-old has a 4.34 ERA and a 24.1% strikeout rate, which normally wouldn’t catch any eyes — but it’s probably enough against the Rockies.

He’s the lone pitcher with a better Pts/Sal projection than McCullers and is worth rostering in all contest types.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS GPP Pick

Mackenzie Gore ($10,000) Washington Nationals (+129) at New York Mets

The other two starters we talked about today are worth playing because of their matchups—Gore might be in spite of his.

The Nationals’ breakout ace has a 2.87 ERA on the season and leads the league with his 35.4% strikeout rate. That’s 2% higher than the pitcher in second place—defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. That’s added up to a 22.8 PPG average on DraftKings for Gore, also tops on the slate.

The challenge is the matchup, since the Mets are a top-five offense in baseball with their 116 wRC+. However, they’re on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the lefty Gore, losing six points in wRC+. It’s not a massive drop, but it certainly helps the case for Gore.

The matchup seems to be scaring the field away from Gore, since his 13% projected ownership puts him outside the top five pitchers. That’s far too low for a player with his upside, making him an excellent GPP pivot.

If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:

We still like rostering the visiting team’s hitters at Coors Field this year, since the Rockies’ offensive struggles don’t do anything to limit their opponent’s scoring.

That’s the Giants this week, who come into Tuesday night with a slate-high 7.1-run total. They’re not all that expensive given their massive implied mark, making them a relatively obvious stacking choice.

Because of that, expect massive ownership of their hitters tonight. One way to work around that is to roster them alongside Gore, but it’s important to be mindful of ownership in general if looking to this specific Giants stack.

They’re taking on lefty Carson Palmquist ($5,000) who has an 8.50 ERA through four career starts. While the Giants hit lefties at a below-average rate, they should be able to get there given the matchup and ballpark.

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!

Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections,  THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Aaron Judge OF ($6,600) New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Noah Cameron)

The forecast is for nearly 90-degree temperatures in Kansas City tonight, with winds blowing out to left field. In total, that boosts scoring 5.8% and home runs 7.7%, according to Weather Edge. That’s not great for pitchers in general, but it’s terrifying when facing the Yankees.

Especially for lefties, against whom Aaron Judge has absurd numbers. Check them out in PlateIQ:

While we could recommend Judge every day and it would make sense, the combination of matchup, conditions, and cheap pitching options makes him especially noteworthy today.

Bo Bichette SS ($4,000) Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas)

One pivot I’m interested in making from the Giants stack is Willy Adames for Bo Bichette. Not only does it save $400 in salary, but it also makes rosters a bit more unique—and you can always use that opening to roster a different Giants bat elsewhere in the lineup.

The game in St. Louis has even better hitting weather than in Kansas City, with a double-digit boost to both home runs and overall scoring. Bichette started the season slowly but has picked up in the last month or so but is still due for some regression. His xWOBA is about 50 points higher than his actual wOBA, and his HR/FB ratio is about 5% lower than his career average.

Given the situation tonight, he could realize some of that positive regression, all while saving salary and ownership from the chalky Adames.

Corbin Carroll OF ($5,700) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners (Logan Evans)

With Logan Evans ($6,500) getting called back up to the majors to make the start for Seattle, I’m interested in stacking the Diamondbacks tonight. Evans has bounced back and forth between the majors and minors, with a 2.83 ERA at the MLB level but ERA predictors in the upper fours.

Now he’s taking on a tough Arizona team away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park in Seattle, making this a tough ask. Carroll is Arizona’s best—but certainly not only—option today, with a double-digit median projection.

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Pictured: Aaron Judge

Photo Credit: Imagn

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A massive undercard bout at UFC Atlanta was scratched just days before Saturday’s event.

UFC Atlanta is headlined by a pivotal welterweight matchup between top contenders Kamaru Usman and Joaquin Buckley, taking place this Saturday at State Farm Arena. The fight marks Usman’s long-awaited return to the welterweight division, and his first Octagon appearance overall in almost two full years.

The card also marks the UFC’s long-awaited return to Atlanta after a six-year absence, dating back to UFC 236. The event featured a UFC Hall of Fame fight between Israel Adesanya and Kelvin Gastelum.

UFC Atlanta could make more MMA memories this weekend. But just days before the event, the card took a big hit.

UFC Atlanta takes a big hit as matchup between exciting bantamweights canceled

As first reported by MMA publication L’Arena MMA, bantamweight Charles Jourdain was forced to withdraw from his upcoming fight with Ricky Simon due to an eye injury. As of this writing, it’s uncertain if the UFC matchmakers will attempt to find a last-second replacement to face Simon at UFC Atlanta.

Jourdain’s withdrawal comes at an unfortunate time, after a successful bantamweight debut in November at UFC Edmonton. He defeated Victor Henry by second-round submission after making the full-time move to the 135 lb division.

Jourdain traded wins and losses in the UFC’s featherweight division, earning victories over the likes of Kron Gracie and Andre Ewell. A win over a top bantamweight like Simon would’ve moved Jourdain closer to a Top 15 spot.

Simon was set to return to the Octagon for the first time since a devastating knockout over Javid Basharat at UFC Seattle in February. The knockout win snapped a three-fight losing streak.

Charles Jourdain vs. Ricky Simon scratched due to a Jourdain eye injury

Despite the loss of Jourdain vs. Simon, UFC Atlanta remains an intriguing card with an important main event booking between Usman and Buckley. The UFC Atlanta main event winner could potentially earn a title shot for their next fight against either Jack Della Maddalena or Islam Makhachev.

Maddalena earned the UFC welterweight title by defeating Belal Muhammad at UFC 315 last month. Makhachev will vacate the lightweight title later this month for a move to welterweight.

Buckley has been on a roll since moving down to 170 lbs, earning recent wins over the likes of Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson, and Vicente Luque. He enters UFC Atlanta on a six-fight winning streak.

Monday, ESPN released the trailer for its latest 30 for 30 documentary film, Empire Skate.

“Empire Skate chronicles the colorful rise and enduring influence of New York skateboarding culture–through the global phenomenon of Supreme–while highlighting intimate portraits of the characters who breathed life into that world,” reads ESPN’s release. “From the highs of breakout film success and the creation of a brand and movement, to the lows of fractured families and the loss of close friends, it is a style-and-substance trip through a unique moment when multiple trends converged on one city to create something timeless.”

The film features Tony Hawk, Alex Corporan, Steven Cales, Chris Keeffe, Jeff Pang, Mike Hernandez, Peter Bici, and Ryan Hickey.

The film is directed by documentary filmmaker Josh Swade, who is perhaps best known to 30 for 30 audiences for his work on There’s No Place Like Home, about Kansas Jayhawks basketball, One & Done, about John Calipari’s Kentucky run, and Arthur & Johnnie, about Arthur Ashe and his younger brother.

“Skate shops have always been sacred spaces for me—places of creativity, community, and culture,” said Swade. “When I moved to New York in the mid-90s, Supreme wasn’t just a store, it was a magnet for a movement that reshaped downtown and radiated far beyond. With Empire Skate, we wanted to honor that energy and tell the story of how a small skate shop helped fuel a global cultural shift. This film is as much about identity and expression as it is about skating, and I’m proud to help bring that story to the screen.”

The film will premiere at the 2025 Tribeca Festival on June 12 and then on ESPN on June 30 at 9 p.m. ET. Following the linear premiere, the film will be available to stream on ESPN+, as well as on Disney+ and Hulu.

Here’s a full synopsis via ESPN:

“Empire Skate” tells the story of 1990’s New York City skate culture that inspired the global brand Supreme. It is the scene of a rare, energetic convergence of hip-hop, street art, dance, and culture. Kids who grew up in the 1980s as outsiders, going against the grain, bring their own element to this culture: skateboarding. Many of them fleeing hard lives of dysfunction and family desperation, they turn the forbidding landscape of the city into their own personal skate park – setting the stage for a movement that would grow to transform fashion and sports. 

While Southern California remains the mass-market capital of skateboarding, this New York City crew creates their own style. Bolstered by charismatic kids like Harold Hunter and enthusiastic entrepreneurs, fledgling skate shops begin to appear across the city. They tap into a NYC skating vibe that is faster, more dangerous, and more improvisational than its West Coast counterpart, and the style echoes that difference: SkateNYC and Zoo York set the tone for this rise, and then another brand is birthed that changes the scene forever. 

Supreme, fronted by the mysterious businessman James Jebbia, takes NYC by storm. Playing by its own rules of marketing, store design, and customer service (including refusing to serve those who don’t seem to fit its image and vibe), Supreme becomes a status symbol on the streets of Manhattan – and beyond. It becomes a global phenomenon, with buyers arriving from as far as Asia, pockets bursting with cash, eager to buy a piece of the lifestyle. 

The rise pulls the NYC skateboarding crew into other areas of pop culture. The Larry Clark and Harmony Korine indie film Kids is a surprise hit that features several NYC skateboarders including an aspiring young actor named Justin Pierce. They find themselves on a rocket ship of fame that is impossible to navigate, and Pierce commits suicide.  

Tragedy and camaraderie, changing trends in fashion and entertainment, and the constant evolution of culture continue to transform the NYC skateboarding landscape. Through it all, Supreme maintains a powerful hold, and those for whom skateboarding was an indispensable part of their lives, the bonds remain forever.

The race for the number one pick in the MLB Draft has been wide open. Since the college baseball season started, I have written about at least half a dozen names that could go with the number 1 pick in the draft. I thought I had all my bases covered, but a new contender has risen to the forefront, left handed pitcher Kade Anderson from LSU.

As a draft eligible sophomore who had one good but not great year at LSU, Anderson was under the radar heading into the season. There were bigger names with longer resumes like Jamie Arnold and Tyler Bremner. However, Anderson has out-pitched both of those guys while playing in a tougher conference. He has been the strikeout king of the SEC.

A couple years ago there was another under the radar LSU pitcher who’s dominant run made him the number one overall pick. His name was Paul Skenes, one of the best pitchers in baseball these days. Anderson could be the second LSU pitcher in 3 years to go 1-1.

However, Anderson is a very different profile to Skenes. Skenes was a massive right hander with triple-digit velocity. Anderson is none of those things. He is a lean 6’2 southpaw who’s fastball works more in the low-mid 90’s. However, he is extremely polished and has a great feel for spin.

Some scouts have compared his clean delivery and aptitude to Max Fried according to Baseball America. That is lofty praise, as Fried is a true ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, with the number one pick those are the kind of guys you want.

Despite not having an 100 MPH fastball, Anderson has been a strikeout machine in the SEC. He has 163 strikeouts in 103 innings this year. Along with all the strikeouts, Anderson has done a good job limiting walks, issuing just 2.4 free passes per nine innings. He has had a bit of a home run problem this season, but with all his strengths, teams will overlook that as home run rate tends to fluctuate a bit year over year.

Everything about his arsenal is so advanced and polished. His fastball doesn’t have elite velocity, but it plays much better than the 92-94 MPH range it sits in. This is because it has excellent carry, spin and shape. It gets on hitters very quickly.

Anderson has a great feel for spin as well. Last year he threw a big curveball, which was a signature pitch for him. However, he doesn’t throw that as much because he developed a slider that is even better. He is already showing he has aptitude for a number of breaking ball shapes, something teams like. Despite relying more on that slider, he still has his big hook in his back pocket.

If that is not enough, he also has a changeup that gets plus grades. With that mix, you see the vision for four pitches that are at least above average. Also, with his aptitude and feel to spin he could add even more clubs to his bag.

If you want a guy who can move through the Minor Leagues quickly, Anderson is your guy. He is polished, productive and a whiff generator. There are more exciting upside plays in the draft, but Anderson is one of the safest guys on the board. With the Nationals needing rotation help quickly, you would have to think they are considering the LSU lefty.