NIL
Our 2025 College Football Playoff predictions model is live. Here are 5 key takeaways
Can Ohio State defend its national championship or will Arch Manning and Texas walk into Columbus and put the college football world on notice in Week 1? Will James Franklin and Penn State follow the blueprint of their Big Ten rivals and give the conference its third national championship in a row behind a plethora of experience? These are among the most pressing questions as we head into the 2025 college football season, ones that my College Football Playoff predictor can help answer.
Just like last season, our College Football Playoff predictor, which launched Thursday and will be updated throughout the 2025 season, uses my College Football Projection Model to simulate the season 100,000 times to find out how likely each team is to win the national championship, win its conference championship and make the College Football Playoff, in addition to how many games it can be expected to win. My ratings are based on an offensive and defensive projection for every college football team using various metrics, such as Expected Points Added and Success Rate, and I also created an algorithm to predict which 12 teams the Playoff committee will choose based on more than a decade of committee decisions. (A full explanation of the methodology can be found at the bottom of our predictor.)
Using these projections, let’s take a look at some surprising outputs as well as some storylines about why the model’s outputs are what they are.
Ohio State favored to go back-to-back
I’m not going to sit here and say Ohio State doesn’t have question marks heading into the season. The Buckeyes replace both coordinators — offensive coordinator Chip Kelly joined the Las Vegas Raiders, and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles left for Big Ten rival Penn State — in addition to 14 NFL Draft picks. The turnover includes a new quarterback (Julian Sayin) and a new defensive line. But although Ohio State will have a drop-off at the coordinator positions, this is still one of the most talented teams in college football, and the model sends the Buckeyes to the Playoff 80.33 percent of the time (just barely ahead of Clemson by 0.04 percentage points) with a 14.3 percent chance to win the national title (edging Penn State).
Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs might be the best offensive and defensive players in the country, respectively, and players of that caliber can make your life easier when it comes to overcoming inexperience. Having a player like Smith leading a deep group of receivers and tight ends will help Sayin adjust.
All in all, Ohio State has had the highest floor in college football over the past few decades, so reloading shouldn’t be much of a problem. Factor in that its two toughest games — Texas and Penn State — will be played in Columbus, and Ohio State is well-positioned to return to the Playoff. After all, the Buckeyes have won at least 10 games in the regular season in 17 of their past 18 full seasons (excluding 2020).
Our bracket features the teams with the best chance to make the Playoff and to win it all, and Ohio State remains atop in both categories.
Best national championship odds
Is Clemson back?
Clemson hasn’t felt like a true national title contender in several years, one could argue in the NIL era (post-2021). Sure, the Tigers won the ACC last season and got into the Playoff, but they went 0-3 against the SEC and were never seen as a true championship threat.
I think this year is different.
Clemson has the second-highest odds to make the Playoff at 80.29 percent, per my projections, and is sixth in my team ratings. Cade Klubnik ranks No. 1 in The Athletic’s preseason QB Tiers and is firmly in the Heisman race to kick off the season, and our NFL Draft expert Dane Brugler has four Tigers defensive players in his preseason top 50 prospects. That seems like the build of a team that is ready to get back to contending on the national stage.
The Tigers will benefit from a weaker ACC, as they’re projected to win the conference and secure an automatic bid just over 50 percent of the time — easily the highest Power 4 conference champion odds — but they also have a chance to make an early statement against LSU from the SEC in Week 1.
Best conference championship odds
| Team | Conf | Conf title |
|---|---|---|
|
MWC |
70% |
|
|
CUSA |
65% |
|
|
ACC |
51% |
|
|
MAC |
35% |
|
|
Big Ten |
32% |
|
|
Sun Belt |
32% |
|
|
American |
31% |
|
|
Big Ten |
28% |
|
|
SEC |
24% |
Could the SEC really not get a bye?
The top five conference champions still get automatic bids, but the bracket is moving to a straight seeding format in which byes aren’t reserved for league winners. SEC fans may notice that in my model’s projected bracket that no team from the SEC is one of the top four teams in the country, which means no first-round bye in the Playoff. Some additional context here is needed.
The SEC has four teams in the projected Playoff, all seeded No. 5 through No. 9, as well as two teams on the bubble. It’s ranked as the toughest conference in my model. Why doesn’t it have a bye here? The issue is that the conference is too good, and the selection process really values records. The gripes from the SEC about strength of schedule not being valued enough are fair. If there is any indication through the committee’s rankings in November that they’re starting to value strength of schedule more — one day this will happen, maybe as soon as this season based on announced changes — then I will tweak my Playoff algorithm to reflect that.
But for now, the SEC’s depth, with nine teams boasting at least a 10 percent chance of a Playoff bid, makes it a greater challenge for any one team to get a bye, especially in the model’s preseason projections.
SEC preseason Playoff odds
| Team | CFP | SEC title | National title |
|---|---|---|---|
|
69% |
21% |
10% |
|
|
69% |
21% |
12% |
|
|
64% |
24% |
10% |
|
|
39% |
12% |
4% |
|
|
31% |
9% |
2% |
|
|
28% |
4% |
<1% |
|
|
16% |
3% |
<1% |
|
|
13% |
2% |
<1% |
|
|
10% |
2% |
<1% |
|
|
5% |
1% |
<1% |
College football is top-heavy
There are eight teams in my projections that have a greater than 64 percent chance of making the Playoff. The next team is Boise State at 50 percent, followed by a drop to 39 percent with LSU. Those 10 teams are followed by 20 teams with anywhere from a 10 to 38 percent chance to make the Playoff. So while I’m not entirely convinced that Michigan (34 percent) is truly the first team out on the bubble, just below last-team-in Miami, it has a favorable enough schedule (no Penn State, no Oregon, plus Ohio State at home) to give it a chance.
I do believe that the transfer portal and NIL/revenue sharing have given us more parity in college football, but that might show up more in how the 12-team bracket is filled out — see Indiana making the Playoff last year — rather than who wins the championship. I agree with my model that 85 percent of the time the national champion is coming from the top seven teams.
Boise State owns the Group of 5
Just about every Group of 5 conversation starts with Boise State. The Broncos have been the most recognizable brand outside of the power conferences for two decades now. Last year, they played their way to the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff, but losing Heisman runner-up running back Ashton Jeanty is a major blow. So can Boise State hold onto the top spot and get another automatic bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions?
My model believes the Broncos will do it, as they have a 50 percent chance to make the Playoff heading into the season. The next highest-ranked Group of 5 team is Tulane at 12 percent, and I’m not sure I want to back the Green Wave after needing to go into the portal for quarterbacks post-spring. In fact, my model projects Boise State to be about four points better than Tulane.
The fact of the matter is that the Group of 5 has become weaker since the transfer portal era began. And yet Boise State has bucked that trend (just look at the fact that it held onto Jeanty last season). Though an Oct. 4 road trip to Notre Dame will be difficult, Boise State is projected to be a double-digit favorite in every Mountain West game this season before joining the revamped Pac-12 in 2026. Maybe the Broncos wouldn’t be as fortunate in The American, as my model projects that to be the best G5 conference, but Boise State remains the standard outside the Power 4.
Keep checking the College Football Playoff predictor page for regular updates throughout the season, all the way through the national championship game.
(Photo of Jeremiah Smith: Harry How / Getty Images)
NIL
Wisconsin’s new $104.5 million Under Armour deal could help launch athletics into NIL-era
The University of Wisconsin-Madison and Under Armour agreed to a 10-year, $104.5 million apparel relations extension on Nov. 24, retaining UA as the Badgers’ exclusive outfitter and injecting new funding into NIL.
The partnership with Under Armour first started in 2015 with the Badgers men’s basketball run to the Final Four. In the decade since, Athletic Director Chris McIntosh considers Under Armour one of the university’s “most valued partners.”
In the recent history of Wisconsin football, the Badgers have struggled to compete with other Big Ten foes during the NIL era of college athletics. Since NIL was implemented into college sports in 2021, Wisconsin Football has experienced difficulties with gathering the funds necessary to recruit high-end talent.
Under Armour’s sponsorship aims to help the Badgers further adapt to the NIL era of college football, including the transfer portal by giving the Badgers the ability to acquire great talent throughout the rest of the country. The contract contains a “starting sum of $175,000 annually”, that will continue to rise, to reward NIL contracts to Badger athletes. Under Armour is not only providing the Badgers with NIL, but they are also providing brand and business opportunities for UW athletes.
In order to achieve success in the modern college football landscape, programs have to devote more monetary rewards than just scholarships to athletes. For example, the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes spent around $20 million in NIL on their program.
In comparison to the Buckeyes, Wisconsin’s football budget is significantly less. After another abysmal football season and ranking towards the bottom of the Big Ten in NIL funds, this renewed contract with Under Armour will help catapult Wisconsin into the top half of the conference in NIL funds.
Under Armour sponsors other notable football programs like Notre Dame and Texas Tech. These two football powerhouses — who finished the regular season in the mix for the College Football Playoff — have seen direct benefits, such as new apparel, more flexibility, and better morale within their respective programs from their sponsorships with Under Armour.
In a new era of collegiate athletics, the Badgers have found themselves trailing not just the Big Ten, but most Power-4 programs throughout the country as well. While their sponsorship with Under Armour doesn’t fix everything, it is definitely a step in the right direction for the future of Wisconsin Athletics.
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NIL
No. 1 transfer portal quarterback predicted to join major college football program
The NCAA transfer portal will feature hundreds of players across all levels of college football in the 2026 offseason.
Prominent quarterbacks have begun to declare their intent to enter the transfer portal in the weeks before it opens. DJ Lagway, Josh Hoover, Rocco Becht and Dylan Raiola are among the Power Four quarterbacks who will be at a new school in 2026.
One of the first Power Four quarterbacks that decided to enter the transfer portal was Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt. He will have two seasons of eligibility at his next school.
One program linked to Leavitt when he enters the portal is Oregon. Leavitt is from West Linn, Oregon, just south of Portland and an hour and a half drive from Eugene by interstate highway.
Oregon has not started a quarterback that it recruited from high school for an entire season since Justin Herbert in 2019. Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore (transferred back) all came to the Ducks via the transfer portal.
The 6-foot-2, 205-pounder began his college football career at Michigan State in 2023. He played in a maximum of four games to keep his redshirt for the Spartans, passing for 139 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions on 15-of-23 passing.

Leavitt transferred to Arizona State in the 2024 offseason. He started every game for the Sun Devils while accumulating 2,885 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 443 yards and five touchdowns en route to their Big 12 Championship victory and subsequent College Football Playoff appearance.
The Big 12 named Leavitt its Freshman of the Year and Second-Team All-Big 12 for his heroics. The conference also named him as its Newcomer of the Week on multiple occasions. He finished 2024 with the most passing yards by a freshman in a season in Arizona State history.
Leavitt’s 2025 season was cut to just seven games due to injuries. He passed for 1,626 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions while rushing for 306 yards and five touchdowns.
The Sun Devils will not start Leavitt in their bowl as he has declared his intent to leave. Arizona State (8-4, 6-3) will face ACC champion Duke (8-5, 6-2) in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas on Dec. 31 (3 p.m. EST, CBS).
The NCAA transfer portal will officially open for all college football players looking for new destinations on Jan. 2, 2026. The portal will stay open until Jan. 16, 2026.
NIL
This college football team is creatively approaching NIL like NFL free agency
The way college football operates in the NIL/revenue-sharing era has moved a lot closer to the NFL model, and one high-profile program is acknowledging that in a very public way.
USC has been announcing on social media that players have “re-signed” with the program, essentially acknowledging that all college football players are free agents each year now, thanks to the transfer portal and the ability to chase better compensation elsewhere.
A big one for the Trojans this week was quarterback Jayden Maiava’s decision to return to USC rather than pursue the NFL draft this year or a bigger payday from another school, but USC has publicized the return of more than two dozen players in this way — from starters to little-used freshmen and even its kicker.
Jayden Maiava has re-signed with the USC Trojans. pic.twitter.com/jLI0S6hPKh
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) December 16, 2025
Coach Lincoln Riley was asked about this new approach for his program.
“I think that’s something that should be celebrated. In this day and age, it’s almost more like an NFL team. Like, it’s an accomplishment to be welcomed back, and then on top of that, when you do have that option, it’s something that should be celebrated by a school or a program that somebody wants to continue on what’s being built or what they’ve already started at that place,” Riley said.
“… It’s changed so much on all accounts. It’s changed a lot for the players. It’s obviously changed a lot for us.”
USC overhauled its player personnel/recruiting department a year ago by hiring general manager Chad Bowden away from Notre Dame and building a new staff for him. Bowden has a reputation for thinking outside the box, so this was likely an idea that he and his staff came up with for the Trojans.
College football analyst Adam Breneman chimed in with his thoughts on USC’s “creative” approach to roster management.
“To me, USC has always been known for creativity. They’re in Los Angeles, the creative capital of the world, that’s where great things happen, and a great job here by USC’s creative department, having this idea. I think we’ll see teams around the country copy this, announcing the re-signing of players to new contracts for the upcoming season with NIL and rev-share deals,” Breneman said.
“Chad Bowden, the USC general manager, is ahead of his time. He’s innovative, he thinks forward, he’s proactive, and his staff clearly has something here, really great with announcing the re-signing of the roster at USC. What a great idea.”
USC may have indeed started something with this, as Missouri announced the return of star running back Ahmad Hardy in the same way.
More schools are following USC’s lead with re-signings https://t.co/ri5GnwgqjJ
— Ryan Kartje (@RyanKartje) December 20, 2025
NIL
College Football Playoff is here, but sport’s soul is gone
Amid the spectacle of the College Football Playoff’s opening weekend — and the nagging sense that we’re watching a sport we no longer love — here’s the uncomfortable question no one in power seems eager to answer:
Is college football slowly turning off the very fans who built it?
The other day on our radio show, we asked a simple poll question: “What’s your excitement level for this year’s College Football Playoff?” The result wasn’t close. The runaway winner was: “Mild at best.”
No, it wasn’t a scientific poll by any means. But it was taken in a college-football-crazed state, in a city that hosts three bowl games, from listeners who have spent decades scheduling fall Saturdays around kickoff times. These are not casuals. These are the lifers.
And they sound tired.
College football has always thrived on passion — irrational, inherited passion. We fell in love with this sport because we were loyal to our hometown or home-state schools. Because our dads and moms went there. Because our grandparents wore the colors. Because even when our teams were bad, they were ours. We believed players loved our schools the way we did. We believed coaches were stewards of something bigger than themselves.
That belief is gone.
What we’re left with now is a sport that feels increasingly transactional, untethered from its own history, and openly hostile to the idea of loyalty. The transfer portal and NIL didn’t just change college football — they rebranded it. Players are no longer student-athletes growing into men within a program; they’re year-to-year contractors shopping their services to the highest bidder. And coaches are no longer culture builders; they’re free agents with obscene contracts and super-agents who are already negotiating new deals with new teams by midseason.
Lane Kiffin didn’t even wait for the College Football Playoff selection committee to put his Ole Miss team in the 12-team field before bolting for his next big job. Think about it: the head coaches from three CFP teams will be elsewhere next season, meaning in the most important tournament in the sport that a quarter of its leaders already had one foot out the door before the playoff even started.
That’s not continuity. That’s chaos.
And the collateral damage is everywhere. Bowl games — once the measuring stick of success — are now disposable. This year alone, Notre Dame opted out because it got snubbed by the CFP committee while Kansas State and Iowa State opted out because they lost their coaches. Bowls used to mean something. They were a reward, a destination, a final chapter. Now they’re an inconvenience.
Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz didn’t mince words when he said earlier this week: “College football is sick.” He warned that the sport is “cracking” — not metaphorically, but structurally. Rules without consequences. Participation agreements nobody honors. Tampering without punishment. Freedom without guardrails.
UCF coach Scott Frost went even further. He said the quiet part out loud: “It’s broken.” And for that honesty, he was attacked. Not because he was wrong — but because he threatened those who benefit from the disorder. Frost described a world where participation agreements are ceremonial, salary caps are fiction and booster money determines competitive balance more than coaching or development ever could.
That’s not college football. That’s the NFL without contracts, unions or rules.
Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck summed it up best: “College football does not have any of what the NFL has in place. … I don’t think the general public actually knows what it looks like when you peel back the onion.”
And that’s the point. Fans (and coaches) are finally peeling it back — and they don’t like what they see.
Conferences now stretch from coast to coast, stripping the sport of its regional soul. Rivalries that once defined generations are disappearing in favor of television windows. Which brings us to a fair question for UCF fans: With USF no longer on your schedule, who’s your big rival? Answer: You don’t have one.
A sense of place used to matter in college football. Geography mattered. Identity mattered. Tradition mattered. Now everything is optimized for TV inventory and gambling markets.
Don’t get me wrong, college football is still idiot-proof. It will march on. ESPN needs the programming. Sportsbooks need the content. Saturdays will still be filled with games, spreads and parlays. The machine will not stop.
But what happens when the true fans — the ones who stayed and cheered through the losing seasons, NCAA sanctions and decades of irrelevance — start checking out emotionally? When excitement becomes obligation? When loyalty feels foolish?
We’re already seeing the signs. Fans less invested in bowls. Fans less connected to rosters that turn over annually. Fans who no longer recognize their own conferences. Fans who watch out of habit, not hope.
This isn’t about opposing player compensation. Players deserve to be paid. It’s not about nostalgia for unpaid labor or closed systems. It’s about structure, fairness and meaning. A sport without rules isn’t freedom — it’s anarchy. And anarchy is exhausting.
College football was never supposed to be perfect. It was supposed to be personal. It was supposed to mean something beyond the scoreboard. It was supposed to connect campuses, communities and generations.
Right now, it feels like a sport in disarray where even coaches and administrators are just hopeless spectators to its unraveling. It’s so bad that they are begging the federal government to get involved. Can you name another multi-billion-dollar business that actively seeks governmental regulation?
The scariest part isn’t that coaches like Frost and Drinkwitz are speaking up.
It’s that we longtime fans are starting to quietly nod along and wonder why we’re still watching.
Yes, the College Football Playoff arrived this weekend and it’s never been bigger.
But, sadly, the sport itself has never felt emptier.
Email me at mbianchi@orlandosentinel.com. Hit me up on social media @BianchiWrites and listen to my new radio show “Game On” every weekday from 3 to 6 p.m. on FM 96.9, AM 740 and 969TheGame.com/listen
NIL
$2.1 million transfer portal QB predicted to join College Football Playoff team
Aftter helping propel Arizona State to its first College Football Playoff run in 2024, quarterback Sam Leavitt is officially preparing to test the transfer market.
Multiple outlets report Leavitt intends to enter the portal when the window opens in January, and early lists of suitors already include Oregon, Indiana, LSU, and Miami.
Leavitt’s 2025 season was cut short by a persistent foot injury that required surgery and ended his year after seven appearances.
Despite limited time, he finished the campaign with 1,628 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, and leaves Tempe with a two-year body of work that includes a 2024 breakout season (2,885 passing yards, 443 rushing yards, 29 total TDs).
ASU closed 2025 at 8–4 under coach Kenny Dillingham, going 6-3 in Big 12 play.
On Wednesday, Mike Golic Jr. weighed in on potential transfer portal destinations, explicitly linking Leavitt to Miami as a natural schematic fit.
“Sam Leavitt, to me, would be a fascinating fit at the University of Miami. We reckon Carson Beck is going to be out after this playoff run, and when I look at Sam Leavitt’s game, I think about the Miami offense they ran with Cam Ward, an offense predicated on the quarterback’s ability to drop back, create, and make plays with both his arm and his legs. That feels like a very easy comparison.”

The Hurricanes went 10-2 this season and enter the postseason with a quarterback (Beck) who posted 3,072 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns with a 74.7% completion rate.
However, despite Beck’s productive year as the starter and Miami’s CFP berth, the senior quarterback is widely expected to move on after the season, opening a potential vacancy at one of college football’s biggest brands.
Leavitt combines a CFP start, redshirt-sophomore eligibility, mobility, and a nationally ranked NIL valuation (estimated at $2.1 million), positioning him as one of the portal’s most attractive quarterbacks.
Read More at College Football HQ
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NIL
ESPN’s Pete Thamel: ‘Tip-top’ of transfer portal quarterback market could reach $5 million
Although the transfer portal doesn’t open until Jan. 2, the quarterback market is starting to take shape. Multiple high-profile signal-callers announced their plans to hit the portal, and ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported how much the top QBs could make.
Thamel reported the “tip-top” of the quarterback market could reach $5 million. For comparison, Duke quarterback Darian Mensah was one of the highest-paid players in the country this past season at $4 million, On3’s Pete Nakos previously reported.
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Multiple big-name schools are expected to be looking for a quarterback in the portal this year, and names such as Brendan Sorsby, Dylan Raiola and Josh Hoover are already front-and-center. As a result, the market could surge, Thamel said.
“This market looks robust already, guys. … I made some calls today. Sources told me the tip-top of this quarterback market, financially, could reach $5 million for one season,” Thamel said Friday on ESPN College GameDay. “Look, it’s supply and demand. You have all those guys. Sorsby’s been linked early to Texas Tech. Dylan Raiola, there’s some smoke to Louisville, although maybe a playoff team jumps in late there. There’s been early links between Indiana and Hoover, assuming that [Fernando] Mendoza goes pro.
“Look, this is what’s going to drive the market. Oregon may lose Dante Moore, Miami’ll be in the quarterback market, so will LSU. So when you really take a look at what’s going to drive this quarterback market, it’s going to be the most expensive in the history of college football.”
Quarterback remains one of the biggest positions in the transfer portal, especially considering the recent success. Seven of the last nine Heisman Trophy winners have been transfers, including Mendoza this year. DeVonta Smith and Bryce Young are the only ones to stay with their own program at Alabama and win the award during that time.
Last year’s transfer quarterbacks were also among the highest-paid players in college football, On3 previously reported. Mensah’s $4 million payday was part of a two-year, $8 million deal at Duke. At Miami, Carson Beck inked a deal worth between $3 and $3.2 million, but up to $6 million with incentives.
The NCAA transfer portal window officially opens Jan. 2, meaning that’s when players’ names will start to appear. It will stay open for two weeks, closing Jan. 16.
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