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Our 2025 College Football Playoff predictions model is live. Here are 5 key takeaways

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Can Ohio State defend its national championship or will Arch Manning and Texas walk into Columbus and put the college football world on notice in Week 1? Will James Franklin and Penn State follow the blueprint of their Big Ten rivals and give the conference its third national championship in a row behind a plethora of experience? These are among the most pressing questions as we head into the 2025 college football season, ones that my College Football Playoff predictor can help answer.

Just like last season, our College Football Playoff predictor, which launched Thursday and will be updated throughout the 2025 season, uses my College Football Projection Model to simulate the season 100,000 times to find out how likely each team is to win the national championship, win its conference championship and make the College Football Playoff, in addition to how many games it can be expected to win. My ratings are based on an offensive and defensive projection for every college football team using various metrics, such as Expected Points Added and Success Rate, and I also created an algorithm to predict which 12 teams the Playoff committee will choose based on more than a decade of committee decisions. (A full explanation of the methodology can be found at the bottom of our predictor.)

Using these projections, let’s take a look at some surprising outputs as well as some storylines about why the model’s outputs are what they are.

Ohio State favored to go back-to-back

I’m not going to sit here and say Ohio State doesn’t have question marks heading into the season. The Buckeyes replace both coordinators — offensive coordinator Chip Kelly joined the Las Vegas Raiders, and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles left for Big Ten rival Penn State — in addition to 14 NFL Draft picks. The turnover includes a new quarterback (Julian Sayin) and a new defensive line. But although Ohio State will have a drop-off at the coordinator positions, this is still one of the most talented teams in college football, and the model sends the Buckeyes to the Playoff 80.33 percent of the time (just barely ahead of Clemson by 0.04 percentage points) with a 14.3 percent chance to win the national title (edging Penn State).

Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs might be the best offensive and defensive players in the country, respectively, and players of that caliber can make your life easier when it comes to overcoming inexperience. Having a player like Smith leading a deep group of receivers and tight ends will help Sayin adjust.

All in all, Ohio State has had the highest floor in college football over the past few decades, so reloading shouldn’t be much of a problem. Factor in that its two toughest games — Texas and Penn State — will be played in Columbus, and Ohio State is well-positioned to return to the Playoff. After all, the Buckeyes have won at least 10 games in the regular season in 17 of their past 18 full seasons (excluding 2020).

Our bracket features the teams with the best chance to make the Playoff and to win it all, and Ohio State remains atop in both categories.

Best national championship odds

Is Clemson back?

Clemson hasn’t felt like a true national title contender in several years, one could argue in the NIL era (post-2021). Sure, the Tigers won the ACC last season and got into the Playoff, but they went 0-3 against the SEC and were never seen as a true championship threat.

I think this year is different.

Clemson has the second-highest odds to make the Playoff at 80.29 percent, per my projections, and is sixth in my team ratings. Cade Klubnik ranks No. 1 in The Athletic’s preseason QB Tiers and is firmly in the Heisman race to kick off the season, and our NFL Draft expert Dane Brugler has four Tigers defensive players in his preseason top 50 prospects. That seems like the build of a team that is ready to get back to contending on the national stage.

The Tigers will benefit from a weaker ACC, as they’re projected to win the conference and secure an automatic bid just over 50 percent of the time — easily the highest Power 4 conference champion odds — but they also have a chance to make an early statement against LSU from the SEC in Week 1.

Best conference championship odds

Team Conf Conf title

MWC

70%

CUSA

65%

ACC

51%

MAC

35%

Big Ten

32%

Sun Belt

32%

American

31%

Big Ten

28%

SEC

24%

Could the SEC really not get a bye?

The top five conference champions still get automatic bids, but the bracket is moving to a straight seeding format in which byes aren’t reserved for league winners. SEC fans may notice that in my model’s projected bracket that no team from the SEC is one of the top four teams in the country, which means no first-round bye in the Playoff. Some additional context here is needed.

The SEC has four teams in the projected Playoff, all seeded No. 5 through No. 9, as well as two teams on the bubble. It’s ranked as the toughest conference in my model. Why doesn’t it have a bye here? The issue is that the conference is too good, and the selection process really values records. The gripes from the SEC about strength of schedule not being valued enough are fair. If there is any indication through the committee’s rankings in November that they’re starting to value strength of schedule more — one day this will happen, maybe as soon as this season based on announced changes — then I will tweak my Playoff algorithm to reflect that.

But for now, the SEC’s depth, with nine teams boasting at least a 10 percent chance of a Playoff bid, makes it a greater challenge for any one team to get a bye, especially in the model’s preseason projections.

SEC preseason Playoff odds

Team CFP SEC title National title

69%

21%

10%

69%

21%

12%

64%

24%

10%

39%

12%

4%

31%

9%

2%

28%

4%

<1%

16%

3%

<1%

13%

2%

<1%

10%

2%

<1%

5%

1%

<1%

College football is top-heavy

There are eight teams in my projections that have a greater than 64 percent chance of making the Playoff. The next team is Boise State at 50 percent, followed by a drop to 39 percent with LSU. Those 10 teams are followed by 20 teams with anywhere from a 10 to 38 percent chance to make the Playoff. So while I’m not entirely convinced that Michigan (34 percent) is truly the first team out on the bubble, just below last-team-in Miami, it has a favorable enough schedule (no Penn State, no Oregon, plus Ohio State at home) to give it a chance.

I do believe that the transfer portal and NIL/revenue sharing have given us more parity in college football, but that might show up more in how the 12-team bracket is filled out — see Indiana making the Playoff last year — rather than who wins the championship. I agree with my model that 85 percent of the time the national champion is coming from the top seven teams.

Boise State owns the Group of 5

Just about every Group of 5 conversation starts with Boise State. The Broncos have been the most recognizable brand outside of the power conferences for two decades now. Last year, they played their way to the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff, but losing Heisman runner-up running back Ashton Jeanty is a major blow. So can Boise State hold onto the top spot and get another automatic bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions?

My model believes the Broncos will do it, as they have a 50 percent chance to make the Playoff heading into the season. The next highest-ranked Group of 5 team is Tulane at 12 percent, and I’m not sure I want to back the Green Wave after needing to go into the portal for quarterbacks post-spring. In fact, my model projects Boise State to be about four points better than Tulane.

The fact of the matter is that the Group of 5 has become weaker since the transfer portal era began. And yet Boise State has bucked that trend (just look at the fact that it held onto Jeanty last season). Though an Oct. 4 road trip to Notre Dame will be difficult, Boise State is projected to be a double-digit favorite in every Mountain West game this season before joining the revamped Pac-12 in 2026. Maybe the Broncos wouldn’t be as fortunate in The American, as my model projects that to be the best G5 conference, but Boise State remains the standard outside the Power 4.

Keep checking the College Football Playoff predictor page for regular updates throughout the season, all the way through the national championship game.

(Photo of Jeremiah Smith: Harry How / Getty Images)



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Calls mount for College Football Playoff to make drastic changes after Saturday’s games

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ESPN analyst and former head coach Nick Saban ruffled a few feathers earlier in the week, but could not hand out some “I told you so” takes.

Saban is one of many advocates of some significant change in the College Football Playoff system who saw Saturday’s results validate a point he was making all week. The system, fairly obviously, is broken.

Two Group of Five teams reached the CFP after the ACC stumbled, fumbled, and tumbled to 8-5 Duke winning the league. After Saturday’s results for Tulane and James Madison, it’s fair to wonder: what on Earth were they doing in the Playoff?

Ole Miss waxed Tulane 41-10 in a game that wasn’t even as close as its lop-sided score. Oregon likewise easily controlled JMU, rolling up a 34-6 halftime edge before taking the easy victory. After an fairly electric Oklahoma/Alabama showdown on Friday and a defensive battle between Miami and Texas A&M on Saturday morning, the CFP suddenly fell very, very flat.

Enter Saban having built a solid base for his “I told you so” platform. Back on Thursday, on The Pat McAfee Show, Saban rebuked the entire idea of G5 teams in the Playoff. “Would we allow ther winner of the AAA baseball league… in the World Series playoffs?” asked Saban. “That’s the equivalent of what we do when JMU gets into the College Football Playoff and Notre Dame doesn’t.”

Oregon wide receiver Malik Benson celebrates with tight end Jamari Johnson

Oregon Ducks wide receiver Malik Benson (4) celebrates with Oregon tight end Jamari Johnson (9) | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Likewise, Urban Meyer made similar arguments last week. On The Triple Option podcast, he advocated for a qualification test for G5 teams– they should play three teams in the top 50 to qualify. “You’re telling the [Notre Dame] Fighting Irish to sit home and James Madison’s going?” asked Meyer. “The better team is supposed to be in the game.”

It was certainly clear on Saturday that the better team was not actually in the game. Joe Tessitore and Jesse Palmer actually made that point clearly in broadcasting the Ole Miss/Tulane blowout.

“This has been a completely non-competitive game,” Tessitore said. “If this were Notre Dame, what kind of game would we have had?”

Jesse Palmer stated, “Imagine how big this environment already is… and what that would have looked like if Notre Dame had that opportunity…. I think this is something that the committee needs to continue working out as they press forward.”

Palmer and Tessitore made a more moderate case, essentially adovicating allowing one team to make a Playoff appearance, but not a second.

That said, considering the trouble that both G5 teams had, a separate bracket might be the only way to make the Playoff experience tenable for Group of Five schools.

With power conferences going to nine-game schedules, it’s also less and less likely that big schools will want to play top Group of Five foes.



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Grimsley’s Faizon Brandon cemented his legacy in the best way possible: on the field

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Faizon Brandon’s decision to return to the field late in his senior senior was eerily similar to the decision made by another Grimsley player just five seasons earlier.

“I’m very glad to end it the right way,” he said.

Travis Shaw, who at the time was ranked as high as the No. 4 defensive lineman in his senior class class, was — like Brandon — coming off a state championship the year before. Also like Brandon, Shaw was injured early in the year — Shaw missed all eight of the first games to start the 2021 season, returning to the field just in time for senior night and a playoff run.

But Brandon, the nation’s top-ranked quarterback and 2024 N.C. Gatorade Player of the Year, had to have had more on his mind than Shaw did.

After all, a lot has changed in five years.

Shaw had to weigh the possibility of returning to the field and getting re-injured and how that might affect his ability to play right away as a freshman.

The birth of the “NIL era” in college football means players have a real financial risk.

Brandon’s injury — a ligament on his right thumb — was in an area where you can’t be too careful.

“Faizon,” who has earned the first-name-only recognition statewide that few players reach in four years in any sport, was also the athlete who challenged the state’s NIL rules and won.

If anyone understood what was at stake, he did.

But sports are not made with the spirit of accounting.

They were made for competitors.

“When he goes out and everybody that thinks they know says ‘You shouldn’t come back.’ I got phone calls saying he had already moved to Tennessee. I thought that was funny because he was in my office when I got that call,” Grimsley coach Darryl Brown said. “And everything else, you know, like he’s done, he’s not playing at Grimsley High School anymore. And he does everything within his power to get himself back to be a part of this run with his teammates. He could have said, I’m good, I already won a state championship.”

In his final year, he returned to the playoffs after missing all but the season opener, wasn’t quite himself. Yet, while playing a total of just six games, and throwing 11 touchdowns, he also walked away as a two-time N.C. High School Athletic Association champion and a two-time MVP.

“Playing high school football in anywhere, playing varsity high school football, for anybody listening, it means something,” Brown said. “It matters. It’s important. A lot of times everybody wants to speed stuff up. But that school you’re at and the teammates you’re with, and the coaches you play for, that matters. And you can see that it means something to our kids.”

He had all the reasons, probably millions if you count every potential dollar, to not play again for the Whirlies. He would have still walked away as one of the best North Carolina high school quarterbacks since the turn of the century.

But he didn’t go out as a healthy scratch.

He went out as a two-time champion, two-time MVP, and his legacy at Grimsley — like Shaw’s — was cemented where it should have always been: on the field.

“I was just trying to give it everything I got, you know, go out there and lay it on the line,” Brandon said. “That was the biggest thing that I felt whenever I came to realization that it would be in my last high school game is just giving it everything I got.”

Faizon Brandon. Grimsley defeated Clayton in the NCHSAA 7A football state championship on December 12, 2025. (Photo: Joshua Chayer/HighSchoolOT)
Faizon Brandon. Grimsley defeated Clayton in the NCHSAA 7A football state championship on December 12, 2025. (Photo: Joshua Chayer/HighSchoolOT)

Copyright 2025 by Capitol Broadcasting Company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.



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Michigan urged to hire veteran college football coach amid coaching search

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The search is on for Michigan to not just find a quality replacement for Sherrone Moore as its next head football coach, but more importantly to scout a figurehead who will bring stability to a program that badly needs it.

And despite the Wolverines arriving late to the college football coaching carousel, with seemingly all the best options already accounted for, a recent resignation at a major program could actually help the school at this crucial moment.

The departure of coaching veteran Kyle Whittingham from Utah could spell a blessing in disguise for Michigan, ESPN broadcaster Matt Barrie said on his eponymous show.

What Michigan needs right now

Michigan urged to hire college football veteran HC amid coaching search

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

“What they need is Kyle Whittingham. They need Kyle Whittingham,” Barrie said on his college football program of Michigan’s ongoing search.

Not only is Whittingham a coaching figure who has been a proven winner and fielded consistently-competitive teams. He also has a very good reputation.

“They need Whittingham, who ran a good, clean program at Utah,” Barrie said. 

“I get it. He’s older. He’s not the sexiest hire in terms of name recognition and youth. But you need a guy to steady that ship.”

Michigan needs to be steadied

The ship has most certainly not been steady these last couple years.

Whether it was the Covid-era recruiting scandal under Jim Harbaugh, the sign-stealing affair connected to former assistant Connor Stalions, or the shocking removal of Sherrone Moore following an alleged relationship with a staffer that resulted in him facing criminal charges, it’s clear Michigan needs a reboot.

And yet, despite everything, it’s also been quite a run for the Wolverines for one very good reason, as the program won its first national championship of the century under Harbaugh’s direction in 2023.

But given everything that happened during and since then, change is in order.

Michigan urged to hire veteran college football head coach amid coaching search

Jeff Swinger-Imagn Images

So, is Whittingham the answer?

Judging by his own recent remarks, he very well could be.

Following his own departure from Utah, the veteran coach very much gave the impression that he is still interested in patroling a sideline somewhere.

“Who knows? We’ll see, I guess, stepping down, stepping away, and re-evaluate things and see where we’re at. I’m a free agent. I’m in the transfer portal,” Whittingham told reporters.

“Like I said, I’m at peace and I did not want to be that guy that overstayed his welcome with people just saying, ‘Hey, when’s this guy gonna leave?’ That was not my intention, ever. I hope I didn’t do that. I’m sure with some people, I did do that, but the timing to me, the timing is right.”

He is a proven winner

Whittingham is the all-time winningest coach in Utah football history, going 177-88 during his 21 seasons with the program.

Michigan is looking for known commodity, although at 66 he may be on the older end of the spectrum as the school considers what it hopes will be a long-term solution.

But having an experienced head coach suddenly come on the market at this exact moment must have Michigan wondering if he could be the answer, as most of the other high-profile names are already taken or staying put where they are, getting lucrative extensions to prevent their fleeing.

Known as someone who has recruited and fielded some punishing defenses over the years, and whose teams have traditionally dominated at home, Whittingham could be the man for the job.

What the markets are saying

Whittingham remains the favorite to become the next head coach at Michigan, sitting out in front with 22 percent odds to take the job, according to the prediction market Kalshi.

Washington head coach Jedd Fisch sits in second with 16 percent likelihood, and Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm places third at 14 percent.

(Barrie)

Read more from College Football HQ



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2025 CFP Odds: Lines, Spreads for Each Quarterfinal Game

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We’re on to the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. 

Let’s look at the odds for the second round at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Dec. 21.

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 31

No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Cotton Bowl

Spread: Ohio State -10
Moneyline: Ohio State -360, Miami +285
O/U: 41.5

What to know: Miami won a defensive slugfest in the first round at Texas A&M, and now it gets the defending champion Buckeyes, with a spot in the semifinals on the line. What has to worry Hurricanes fans is that Miami scored just 10 points against the Aggies on Saturday, a middle-of-the-pack defensive team. Ohio State has the best defense in the country, only allowing more than 10 points twice this season. No team has scored over 16 on the Buckeyes.   

THURSDAY, JAN. 1

No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana
Rose Bowl

Spread: Indiana -7
Moneyline: Indiana -258, Alabama +210
O/U: 48.5 

What to know: Would you believe that the Hoosiers are a 7-point favorite over mighty Alabama? It’s a new era in college football. The Tide went to Oklahoma and knocked off the Sooners in the first round of the CFP, and now they get a date with undefeated Indiana, the top team in the country. Indiana will trot out Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback, and the Hoosiers have scored 55 points or more six times this season. 

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Sugar Bowl

Spread: Georgia -7
Moneyline: Georgia -270, Ole Miss +220
O/U: 56.5

What to know: Ole Miss dominated Tulane in the first round of the Playoff, jumping out to a 41-3 lead before winning 41-10. Now, the Rebels get another shot at the Bulldogs, who they lost to back on Oct. 18 in Georgia, 43-35. It won’t be a cakewalk for the Bulldogs, who trailed 35-26 in the third quarter of that game before scoring the final 17 points to eke out an 8-point win. 

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Orange Bowl

Spread: Oregon -1.5
Moneyline: Oregon -120, Texas Tech +100
O/U: 52.5

What to know: Oregon did what many thought it would do in the first round, and that’s rout James Madison. The Ducks led 34-3 before cruising to a 51-24 victory, setting up a date with Texas Tech on New Year’s Day. OU still has a single loss to its name this season, a 30-20 defeat at the hands of No. 1 Indiana on Oct. 11. The Red Raiders also have only one loss on the year, falling at Arizona State back on Oct. 18. 

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Oregon Ducks Playoff Uniforms Instantly Steal the Show

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EUGENE – The Oregon Ducks’ uniforms stole the spotlight in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Long celebrated for their innovative Nike designs, the Ducks may have unveiled their most striking combination yet, paying homage to their classic colors while adding fresh, bold details.

As Oregon takes the field against James Madison in Autzen Stadium’s first-ever playoff game, fans and analysts alike struck by the uniform combination and how they add to the pageantry. From the gleaming helmet to the eye-catching cleats, every element of the look was designed to make a statement. In this historic debut, it did just that, reinforcing Oregon’s reputation as the gold standard in college football style.

oregon ducks uniforms nike phil knight dan lanning college football playoff james madison dante moore NIL autzen stadium

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore | Jake Bunn

oregon ducks uniforms nike phil knight dan lanning college football playoff james madison dante moore NIL autzen stadium

Oregon Ducks safety Dillon Thieneman | Bri Amaranthus

oregon ducks uniforms nike phil knight dan lanning college football playoff james madison dante moore NIL autzen stadium

Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq | Jake Bunn

oregon ducks uniforms nike phil knight dan lanning college football playoff james madison dante moore NIL autzen stadium

Oregon Ducks linebacker Bryce Boettcher | Jake Bunn

oregon ducks uniforms nike phil knight dan lanning college football playoff james madison dante moore NIL autzen stadium

Oregon Ducks safety Dillon Thieneman | Bri Amaranthus

Oregon’s Uniforms Make Big Statement

The team is wearing a green “Gang Green” Generation O jersey, paired with a glossy green helmet featuring a yellow wing, yellow pants, green undergarments with yellow accents, and yellow-and-green ombre cleats. A College Football Playoff patch sits on the right side of the jersey, just above Oregon’s Nike Swoosh, complete with the logo and “Playoff First Round Presented by Allstate.”

The uniforms also made history – the first time that solid yellow wings were featured on an Oregon helmet in program history. The green helmet, green jersey, yellow pant is a combination that has been worn only six times in program history in the modern era.

Oregon Ducks Football unveils their uniforms for their 2025-2026 College Football Playoff first round game against James Madi

Oregon Ducks Football unveils their uniforms for their 2025-2026 College Football Playoff first round game against James Madison. | @goducks on X

Oregon’s uniforms aren’t just cool designs that go viral on social media, they’re a representation of the Ducks’ national brand. Not only do the new uniforms reflect the program’s innovative culture and performance identity – the impact on recruiting is undeniable. It’s not just fashion; it’s strategy and branding.

The electricity in Autzen Stadium is palpable for the postseason game. A true home field advantage, the fans in Eugene know how to turn up the decibel levels. Ducks fans have turned Autzen into a house of doom for opponents who make their way west. The Ducks have an impressive 25-2 record in Autzen Stadium under coach Dan Lanning. The Ducks are 54-4 at home since the start of the 2017 season. 

If the Ducks beat James Madison, they will play the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the quarterfinals at the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1 in Miami. Oregon is making its third College Football Playoff appearance overall and is one of just four teams (Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State) to make the field each of the last two years.

A win would hive Oregon its first playoff win since since beating Florida State in the CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1, 2015. It also would send Oregon to its first-ever Orange Bowl appearance.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning spoke to how the senior leaders are stepping up before the playoff.

“Guys are excited about the opportunity, but I think it’d be wrong to say that the preparation is different this week than any other week, right? Yes, the game’s different. We all feel that. We recognize that, that it’s different. But it’s not like guys are like, okay, let’s work hard now. They’ve been working hard, right? You work hard to get into this moment, and then it’s about maintaining that level, that standard as you approach games like this,” Lanning said.

Oregon Ducks Washington Huskies dan lanning rivalry college football playoff dante moore jeremiah mcclellan jamari johnson

Oregon Ducks Washington Huskies dan lanning rivalry college football playoff dante moore jeremiah mcclellan jamari johnson | oregon ducks on si darby winter

MORE: Oregon Ducks Lose Receiver To Transfer Portal Amid Injury Updates

MORE: Oregon Ducks Uniforms Flex The Power Of A National Brand In Playoff Spotlight

MORE: Oregon Ducks Intriguing Injury Report vs. James Madison

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JMU Quarterback Alonza Barnett III Talks Oregon’s Uniform

JMU’s starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III gave an unexpected shoutout to the Ducks, further highlighting Oregon’s national brand not only through their play throughout the years, but also in their iconic uniform designs.

“They had the flashy jerseys, Marcus Mariota, Darren Thomas, Darren Carrington, Kenjon Barner, a bunch of people. I was one of those kids who grew up watching Oregon. And so, this is an environment you dream of playing in. If you are who you say you are, you can’t shy down when the lights are bright,” Barnett added.

The Ducks look to slow Barnett III, who has thrown for 2,533 yards and 21 touchdowns this season.





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Iowa football lineman highlights importance of opting into bowl games

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Dec. 21, 2025, 7:45 a.m. CT

As No. 23 Iowa football (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten) prepares for its ReliaQuest Bowl matchup against No. 14 Vanderbilt (10-2, 6-2 SEC), Hawkeyes’ sophomore offensive lineman Trevor Lauck discussed why Iowa’s roster is committed to playing in its upcoming bowl game.

In a college football climate where the influence of NIL opportunities and the transfer portal steer many away from playing in bowl games, Lauck commented on how the Hawkeyes view the ReliaQuest Bowl as a chance to finish the season the right way.

“I feel like the point of college football is to go out there and win games with your team,” Lauck said.

“I feel like people kind of lose track of that when it comes to the bowl season. It kind of turns into people thinking about themselves, and that’s why I’m super fortunate to be here at a school like this. It’s still a team. No one’s really thinking about themselves right now. This is still the 2025 season, and we want to finish it strong.”



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