NIL
The Women's Basketball Boom

The Women’s Basketball Boom
An influx of gifted, charismatic, politically active stars have willed the WNBA into a genuine sporting attraction. Can they leverage the sport’s growing popularity into a better deal for players?

We’ve largely done away with the Great Man Theory in historiography, but I remain intrigued by the Great Player Theory of basketball history. The NBA isn’t the NBA without Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain’s midcentury rivalry, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s on-court dominance and off-court eloquence, or Magic Johnson and Larry Bird’s cross-coastal clashes. (The last helped shift the racialized discourse around what was, in the early 1980s, disparaged as a cocaine-addicted league airing tape-delayed finals games after M.A.S.H., Dallas, and the local news.) Basketball doesn’t become a cultural and economic colossus without Michael Jordan’s branded silhouette, Charles Barkley’s affable irreverence, or LeBron James’s hyper-publicized rise from scrawny Akron teen to billionaire mogul. Unlike in football, we see the players’ faces. Unlike in baseball, our favorite stars participate in almost every play. Unlike in hockey, there’s no barrier between the fans and the action. We know that Steph Curry chews his mouth guard at the free throw line, that Luka Dončić contorts his face in exasperation upon each whistle, and that, by halftime, Nikola Jokić’s arms are decorated with vivid red scratches. We don’t know these men, yet we feel like we do.
And the list above is exclusively composed of men. This is by no means to discredit the many dominant female hoopers who’ve graced the court over the years—Tamika Catchings, Maya Moore, Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie—but it does speak to the gendered reality of sports. In 2019, just 5.7 percent of ESPN’s Sportscenter coverage was dedicated to women. Data collected between 2018 and 2020 found that men’s NCAA basketball teams received 60 percent more funding than their female counterparts. Women’s sports have been undermarketed, underfunded, and woefully underappreciated.
The facts and figures are alarming, but in women’s basketball they are improving. This is due foremost to an influx of gifted, charismatic, politically active stars who have willed the WNBA into a genuine sporting attraction, even during the dog days of baseball-dominated summer. A’ja Wilson is breaking scoring records and skewering intersectional oppression. Angel Reese’s relentless motor on the glass—and infectious charisma on the mic—has brought attention to the game’s inequities. Players Association President Nneka Ogwumike has been advocating for athletes and racking up All-Star selections since the Obama administration. Kelsey Plum will drop thirty and school you up on WNBA economics. The league has never been so profuse with talent.
The W’s ascension has been further aided by the munificence of billionaires. These include Joe Tsai, cofounder of Alibaba, who has largely sportswashed away scrutiny over his ties to companies with horrific human rights records. Since buying the New York Liberty, Tsai has financed an $80 million practice facility in Greenpoint, Brooklyn; invested in a media company dedicated to promoting women’s sports; and moved Liberty home games from the Westchester County Center, where in 2019 they averaged about 2,000 fans, to downtown Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, where they averaged close to 13,000 fans during the 2024 season. Billionaire owner Mark Davis has made similar moves with the Las Vegas Aces: in 2023, they became the first WNBA team with their own practice facility. The Indiana Fever are set to join their ranks in 2027 with a $78 million facility in downtown Indianapolis, a basketball-crazed town at the center of a women’s basketball boom.
The sport’s rapid growth has also been spearheaded by Caitlin Clark, the Fever’s dime-dropping, logo three-draining megastar point guard. Prior to her arrival in Indiana, Clark eviscerated her Big Ten competition at Iowa on her way to becoming the all-time NCAA scoring leader—men’s and women’s—and one of the most famous and bankable athletes in the United States. Three of the six most-watched basketball games in 2024 featured Clark’s Iowa Hawkeyes, including an average viewership of 18.9 million in the national championship against South Carolina. (The men’s NCAA championship averaged 14.8 million in 2024, while the 2024 NBA finals averaged just 11.3 million.)
Clark largely met lofty expectations during her 2024 rookie season in the WNBA. She led the perennially cellar-dwelling Fever to their first playoff appearance in eight years, earning rookie of the year and first-team All-WNBA honors along the way, and she propelled the most successful, lucrative season in the history of the W—her $76,000 salary be damned. TV viewership reached an all-time high, attendance rose 48 percent, and merchandise sales skyrocketed by 601 percent (Fever jersey sales went up a cool 1,193 percent). Overall revenue surged to somewhere in the vicinity of $200 million, and the league signed a new media rights deal that, according to estimates, will more than quadruple broadcast dollars.
Despite record numbers across the board, the players themselves only received 9.3 percent of league revenue last season. Their counterparts in the NBA, meanwhile, receive about 50 percent of basketball-related income (BRI), which makes up the vast majority of the league’s overall revenue. The W’s lopsided deal is a product of the last collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the league and the Women’s National Basketball Players Association (WNBPA) in 2020. The players may have made headway in pay, family and maternity benefits, travel, and free agency, but their negotiated 50/50 split on incremental revenue can be misleading. NBA players earn their negotiated share on all BRI—to which their salary cap is directly tied—whereas WNBA salaries are not formally linked to BRI, and players only get an equal split on the money earned beyond the league’s yearly revenue target. That target has never been hit, thanks in no small part to its being determined by cumulative revenue, which took a monumental hit during the pandemic; hence the putrid split.
The WNBPA has opted out of its current CBA—a rarity in most unionized sectors, CBAs in pro sports league often include opt-out clauses—which is now set to expire following the 2025 season. So while the W continues to enjoy record ratings and surging jersey sales, and while the on-court product continues to be some of the best basketball in the world, the future of the sport will be determined off the court, in boardroom meetings and late-night negotiations aimed at avoiding what both the league and the union would deem catastrophic in the middle of an unprecedented boom: a 2026 labor stoppage.
In my view, even more disastrous would be an inequitable deal that continues to deny players their fair share. (To be crystal clear: W players are not asking for the same salaries as the men, but for a similar percentage of their own league’s revenue, as Kelsey Plum has explained.) If a just agreement can’t be reached—and even if it can—this inflection point in women’s basketball is also an opportunity to consider larger questions surrounding the marriage of sports and capital: Can we imagine a pro-labor sporting world beyond the reach of antitrust-exempt cartels and the whims of billionaires?
I used to think visions of a more equitable sports landscape were the stuff of fiction, like the prescient 2019 film High Flying Bird. Penned by playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney and directed by Steven Soderbergh, High Flying Bird takes place amid a labor dispute and looming work stoppage in the NBA. The film centers on an entrepreneurial basketball agent, Ray (played by André Holland), and his efforts to buck the system when a video of his star client’s impromptu pickup game goes viral. Ray tries to circumvent traditional league channels and develop a network of player-run, direct-to-consumer games. The owners quickly come to the bargaining table when they learn of the “lockout street ball” events popping up around the country, but not before admitting to the players’ ingenuity. “You know what I hate about this?” says one owner. “It’s exactly what I’d do.”
After the dust settles, Ray’s mutiny is revealed to be, at least in part, a power play: he leverages his shrewd maneuvering into a (strongly implied) promotion. Ray may be looking out for his bottom line as much as the owners are, though he does wonder what would happen if the superstar pawn in his scheme was able to think bigger: “He ain’t a game changer,” laments Ray. “He’s just happy to be playing the game.” In today’s NBA, the stars are brands unto themselves with more market power than ever before; owners are surely praying they maintain a similar level of complacency.
The latent power of the NBA’s top draws was glimpsed during the (nonfictional) 2011 lockout. While an ongoing labor dispute was putting the season in jeopardy, the league’s biggest names played in viral exhibition games at the Goodman League in D.C., the Melo League in Baltimore, and the Drew League in LA. The status quo was largely preserved in the eventual CBA, but the players’ visibility outside traditional league channels boosted their bargaining power, and the lockout provided a fleeting glimpse of a labor-driven basketball world.
Caitlin Clark perhaps excepted, WNBA players are not the same economic behemoths as their male peers; they don’t have the bargaining power of a LeBron, Steph, or Kevin Durant. This is due to a confluence of factors, ranging from a lack of funding on the youth level to comparatively minuscule marketing and promotional machines for the pros. But the women are now having a moment, and as the league’s CBA nears expiration, the W’s biggest stars are getting creative.
Unrivaled, the fledgling women’s basketball league taking place during the W’s offseason, is at the center of these creative, alternative visions for the future of the sport. Based in Miami, the six-team league wrapped up its first season in March. It boasts some of the W’s top talent—twenty-two of its thirty-six players have been league All-Stars—and it’s experimenting in drastic ways: games are three-on-three instead of five-on-five; the court is twenty-two feet shorter than the W’s; shot clocks are eighteen seconds instead of twenty-four; and the final quarter ends not with a buzzer, but with a team reaching a set final score (known colloquially as an Elam Ending). The shrunken court, swift possessions, and increased spacing resulted in relentlessly paced, high-scoring games. The fans tuning in—present company included—were treated to a delightful barrage of fast breaks.
Like its devoted (if still modest) fan base, participating players were pleased with Unrivaled. Its $220,000 average salary is just shy of the WNBA max, despite the season being less than half as long, and the league’s amenities received rave reviews. Team-specific practice facilities are anomalous in the W—the Connecticut Sun have had to adjust practice plans for, among other things, Pilates classes and a toddler’s birthday party. There are no such issues at Unrivaled’s private, 130,000-square-foot facility in Miami, which includes weight rooms and practice gyms, onsite day care, chef-prepared meals, and massages. “They have everything you possibly need,” said star forward Alyssa Thomas.
WNBA athletes often supplement their salaries by playing overseas. (Women’s GOAT Diana Taurasi skipped the entire 2015 season to take a lucrative contract with a Russian club, which paid fourteen times her W salary.) One of Unrivaled’s stated goals is to make these international moves less necessary. The budding league was initially devised as a means of helping players bypass the WNBA’s draconian prioritization rule, a 2020 CBA clause designed to penalize players who head to Europe during the offseason (some players are even rewarded with “time-off” bonuses for not joining another club). Historically, more than half the league plays internationally over the winter, and if they’re not back by training camp they face fines and suspensions. Unrivaled’s schedule allows the athletes to avoid W penalties, stay close to family, and still get paid.
It’s perhaps no surprise that Unrivaled is doing right by the players, because Unrivaled is owned by the players. Founded by superstars Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier, the league is something of a capitalist unicorn in that it’s been created for athletes by athletes (at least partially). Every player who participated in the inaugural season shared in a 15 percent equity pool, divvied up according to tenure and career accolades. The only similar model I’m aware of in US sports is Premier League Lacrosse (PLL), founded in 2018, which offers stock options to all its players. (Believe it or not, Joe Tsai has his hand in this as well.)
There’s plenty to like about Unrivaled’s financial and institutional makeup, but it isn’t building a socialist sporting utopia. Morgan Stanley has joined the Unrivaled party, as has ex-Milwaukee Bucks owner and private equity kingpin Marc Lasry, currently embroiled in a $100 million lawsuit over alleged sexual misconduct. Unrivaled is certainly a trailblazer in the world of upstart sports leagues. It is not, however, immune to the harsh realities of the market, and one might even argue their limited player equity pools are more symbolic gestures meant to appease players than actual breaks with the profit-driven norm. In Unrivaled—and the PLL, for that matter—capital is still queen.
Unrivaled also isn’t immune to the need for eyeballs, and its first season’s ratings can be generously described as “middling.” Though the league was able to secure an impressive multiyear deal with TNT, they averaged just 221,000 viewers over the course of the season, a far cry from the WNBA’s 2024 average of 657,000 (W games on ESPN averaged 1.2 million). To be fair, Unrivaled is competing with NBA broadcasts, and lacks the W’s brand recognition. And it is promising that Unrivaled almost broke even; almost every upstart sports league hemorrhages money, the WNBA included.
Now in its twenty-ninth year, the W has never turned a profit. The NBA, whose Board of Governors founded the WNBA in 1996, has historically helped to keep the league afloat. Almost three decades later, the W still functionally operates as a subsidiary. This may seem like an advantage, as the NBA can provide hefty cash infusions and lend out its robust operational infrastructure. But there’s a fine line between stability and stagnation, and the W’s lack of organizational autonomy, coupled with a perpetual branding as its parent company’s plucky, underachieving offspring, has seriously constrained its growth potential. The WNBA doesn’t even negotiate its own media rights—those are packaged together with the NBA—so it’s unclear what it would be worth on the open market.
Given recent trends, the W’s financial fortunes should change soon. And though its unprofitability is ammunition for naysayers to reject a more equitable revenue split, the W is still young compared to established men’s leagues, and, I’d argue, remains in something of a startup stage due to its historical lack of press coverage. The league exploded upon receiving more media attention. Keep covering it and it’ll keep growing. And as individual teams rapidly become more valuable, an emphasis on the league’s unprofitability is increasingly reductive: this year the New York Liberty were valued at $450 million, thirty times their 2019 valuation. Mark Davis bought the Aces for $2 million in 2021; they’re now worth a reported $310 million. Even the Connecticut Sun, one of the least valuable franchises in the league according to Forbes, just sold for a record $325 million (the sale is pending final approval by the WNBA Board of Governors). All this to say: the profits will come, and the athletes who built the league’s skyrocketing value deserve a larger piece of the pie.
While the W continues to defy even the most optimistic growth projections, Unrivaled is coming off a turbulent first year. Much of this can be chalked up to a jam-packed sports calendar and to the league’s relative industry anonymity, but Unrivaled is further restricted by geography: its entire operation is confined to a small suburb of Miami. Even in an era of increased player popularity, civic and regional pride play a considerable role in sports fandom. This isn’t a uniformly positive feature of sports, as city tax coffers are raided by billionaires for unwieldy stadium complexes with dubious economic benefits. Nevertheless, from a fan engagement and retention standpoint, Unrivaled’s relative lack of local fervor is an issue.
In year two, however, they might roll out a touring model, which would reportedly take the action to college towns and non-WNBA cities. They could go a step further and directly tie teams to tour stops: Phantom Basketball Club becomes the Wisconsin Phantom; Mist Basketball Club becomes the Georgia Mist. This is a concept lifted from the PLL, which already has a touring model and began assigning each team to a specific market last year. Host cities were decided by, among other things, fan voting. When the tour stops in a team’s “home,” they play two games over the course of the weekend instead of the usual one. After switching to its new format, the PLL saw huge growth.
There are many other ways of expanding Unrivaled’s cultural footprint: community engagement, sponsorship deals, fan activation. But none will be a bigger boon to its near-term success than a commitment from Caitlin Clark. Seven times more people tuned into watch Clark get drafted than to watch the Unrivaled championship; a Fever preseason contest featuring Clark received six times more viewers than the average Unrivaled game. The league is more than aware of her trajectory-altering potential, which is why it offered her an equity stake along with over $1 million to participate in their inaugural season—more than ten times her W salary. Yet Clark turned them down, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. Thanks to her many lucrative brand deals, she doesn’t need the cash, and after playing in the 2024 NCAA championship on April 7 and reporting to Fever training camp three weeks later, you can hardly blame her for wanting a full offseason of rest and recovery, out of the spotlight.
Whether or not Clark deserves that spotlight—especially compared to other trailblazing female hoopers, most of them Black—dominates the discourse. Clark herself has acknowledged her privilege as a white player. “Black women [made] this league what it is,” she said. Two things can be true: Clark is one of the most talented rookies in W history, and institutionalized racism plays a role in her marketability compared to her Black peers. So while the intersectional dimensions of her popularity deserve scrutiny, the indisputable fact remains that everyone is riding a wave set off by the earth-quaking gravity of Caitlin Clark. According to one estimate, she generated over a quarter of WNBA economic activity last season.
If Clark does suit up for Unrivaled in year two, she could secure the immediate future of the league, and her profile could establish its player equity structure as a viable industry model. That might sound trivial, but the implications could be profound. For better or worse, sports have a vice grip on American culture, and right now they’re in a mutually beneficial relationship with the market, reinforcing a capitalist reality so deep-seated that we can hardly imagine anything else. But what if, instead of aspiring to high wages in corporate sports cartels, young athletes dreamed of securing equity in a worker-owned league? What if, instead of reflecting the market’s cutthroat competition and exploitation, the sporting world manifested labor solidarity, civic responsibility, and community?
I’m not making a one-track argument for 100 percent player equity. Leagues like the PLL and Unrivaled, where the teams are all owned by the league, mix player equity pools and stock options with private investment. There are also beloved, publicly owned franchises like the Green Bay Packers, a nonprofit with over 500,000 shareholders and one of the richest histories, and smallest hometowns, in American sports. And there’s plenty to like about the 50+1 rule in the German Bundesliga, where football clubs like Bayern Munich must ensure that their members—usually fans—maintain majority control. These are all rare exceptions to the industry norm, and they represent painfully incremental progress, but they’re still steps in the right direction.
Even Caitlin Clark’s paradigm-shattering market power can’t overcome our political-economic reality. And while the American sports model, replete with sportswashed robber barons holding cities hostage for tax dollars, is in desperate need of transformation, it’s hardly fair to ask female athletes to forgo newfound riches in order to develop a utopian sports commune while their male peers receive nine-figure contracts. Upon ratification of the new CBA, I expect the status quo to mostly remain in place. Players are advocating to improve the system, not to upend it.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the new deal. Record ratings and attendance numbers have bolstered player leverage, as has the modest success of Unrivaled. A more equitable revenue split seems likely to be negotiated, where the players earn money on all basketball related income and not just on incremental revenue. Pay will likely at least double, and the salary cap will soften. Dedicated practice facilities will become more norm than anomaly, and family and retirement benefits will drastically improve. Perhaps the prioritization rule will be loosened, if not outright abolished. And the WNBPA will make major headway in training, nutrition, and healthcare for both current and former players.
These wins, assuming they happen, should be lauded: they’ll help to standardize and professionalize a league that, for far too long, has compelled its workforce to make do with subpar resources. Yet such wins will also entrench the industry’s status quo. The WNBA’s recent surge in popularity is one of the best things to happen in sports this decade, and it has emboldened players to demand more from their league and its owners. But the reigning top-down labor structure remains beyond scrutiny. “Pay Us What You Owe Us,” read the players’ warm-ups at last month’s All-Star Game. They’re bargaining for higher wages—a larger chunk of the revenue they themselves produce. They are not, so far, imagining anything fundamentally new.
Michael Knapp’s writing has appeared or is forthcoming in the Los Angeles Review of Books, Public Books, Electric Literature, the Cleveland Review of Books, and elsewhere. He teaches at Irvine Valley College.
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College Football Playoff team loses running back to transfer portal
A running back with proven production is set to enter the college football transfer portal with just one year of NCAA eligibility remaining in his career.
James Madison running back Ayo Adeyi is preparing to enter the transfer portal in search of what will be a third school to play for in 2026, according to ESPN.
What he’s done on the field
Adeyi was limited to just 120 rushing yards on 24 carries for the Dukes as they made their first College Football Playoff appearance this past season, but the tailback has a history of solid output when he was initially at North Texas.
In total, Adeyi has 2,480 career rushing yards and 17 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry over the last five collegiate seasons, mostly with the Mean Green.
He ran for 6 touchdowns on 496 yards in his initial season there before improving his per yard average to 7.2 yards the following season with 4 touchdowns and 807 total yards.
Adeyi had his best season to date in 2023, when he carried 143 times for 1,017 yards and scored 6 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 yards per attempt.
How the college football transfer portal works
College football’s transfer portal officially opens on Jan. 2, but that hasn’t stopped a flurry of players from entering their names for consideration at a new school right now.
The new 15-day transfer portal window from Jan. 2-16 and the elimination of the spring transfer period has condensed the timeline for players and programs to make their moves.
The NCAA Transfer Portal is a private database that includes the names of student-athletes in every sport at the Division I, II, and III levels. The full list of names is not available to the public.
A player can enter their name into the transfer portal through their school’s compliance office.
Once a player gives written notification of their intent to transfer, the office puts the player’s name into the database, and they officially become a transfer.
The compliance office has 48 hours to comply with the player’s request and NCAA rules forbid anyone from refusing that request.
The database includes the player’s name, contact information, info on whether the player was on scholarship, and if he is a graduate student.
Once a player’s name appears in the transfer portal database, other schools are free to contact the player, who can change his mind at any point in the process and withdraw from the transfer portal.
Notably, once a player enters the portal, his school no longer has to honor the athletic scholarship it gave him.
And if that player decides to leave the portal and return to his original school, the school doesn’t have to give him another scholarship.
(ESPN)
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CFB Betting Report: Action on Standalone Playoff Games Reaching NFL Heights
NFL betting usually rules the roost on the American sports wagering landscape.
But College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds are giving the mighty shield a run for its money at the moment — particularly in the Miami vs. Ohio State Cotton Bowl matchup, which kicks off the quarterfinals on Dec. 31, and the Alabama vs. Indiana Rose Bowl showdown on Jan. 1.
“These standalone College Football Playoff games really rival the NFL games,” Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said.
Mucklow serves up his insights on College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds for all four matchups.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
Bettors Backing Buckeyes
Ohio State is 12-1 straight up (SU), though that lone loss came in its last outing. The Buckeyes were 3.5-point favorites vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and fell short 13-10.
Still, with a 10-2-1 mark against the spread (ATS), Ohio State has been one of the best bets all season in college football. Only Texas Tech (11-2 ATS) is better at covering the number.
So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the public betting masses are all over No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS) in the Cotton Bowl, for a 7:30 p.m. ET New Year’s Eve kickoff.
“Ohio State is a bigger loser for us on the spread than any of the NFL Week 17 games. And there’s still [five days] of betting to come,” Mucklow said.
After Miami’s 10-3 first-round win at No. 7 Texas A&M, Caesars Sports opened the Buckeyes as 7.5-point favorites. That number sprinted to Buckeyes -10, with early bettors eager to pile on Ohio State.
The Hurricanes actually saw sharp action at +10, so Caesars adjusted Monday to Ohio State -9.5.
Backing Off ‘Bama
No. 9 Alabama (11-3 SU/8-5-1 ATS) has the SEC pedigree, which is usually attractive to the betting masses. But No. 1 Indiana (13-0 SU/8-5 ATS) has been an offensive juggernaut much of the season, and bettors like to back a good offense.
And even though the Hoosiers didn’t put up points in their last outing, they did beat defending national champion Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. That carries some weight, as well, for a 4 p.m. ET Rose Bowl clash on New Year’s Day.
Indiana opened as a 6-point favorite and moved out to -7 in short order. Mucklow said sharp action on Alabama +7 led Caesars to lower Indiana to -6.5. But a continuing flood of Indiana action from the masses moved the Hoosiers up to -7 again.
“Bettors are all over Indiana big time. That’s bigger than our Ohio State decision,” Mucklow said. “I hate to say it, but we’re Alabama fans by a good distance.”
That said, Mucklow noted Caesars has one angle working in its favor.
“Indiana has not really been in this position before. Alabama has been there, done that,” he said.
Short Spread
Oddsmakers believe No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech is the most competitive matchup in CFP quarterfinal odds. The Ducks opened as 1.5-point favorites and are up to -2 vs. the Red Raiders, for a noon ET New Year’s Day start in the Orange Bowl.
Oregon (12-1 SU/9-4 ATS) already has a CFP game under its belt, coasting past No. 12 James Madison 51-34. But the Ducks fell short of covering as huge 20.5-point home favorites.
As noted above, Texas Tech (12-1 SU/11-2 ATS) is the best spread-covering team in the nation this season. The Red Raiders have been resting since a 34-7 rout of BYU as 12.5-point favorites in the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 6.
Bettors are leaning toward the Ducks, as of Friday afternoon.
“Oregon is a small loser for us, nothing drastic. There’s not much of a difference between these two teams,” Mucklow said. “I think this game will see two-way action. It’s only a 2-point spread.”
Sweet Rematch
One matchup in College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds is actually a rematch from the regular season. In Week 8, Ole Miss and Georgia played a thriller in Athens, Ga.
Ole Miss — then under Lane Kiffin, who has since left for LSU — led 35-26 late in the third quarter. But Georgia did the rest of the scoring in a 43-35 victory, barely covering as a 7-point home favorite.
Now, No. 3 Georgia (12-1 SU/6-7 ATS) and No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1 SU/8-5 ATS) meet on a neutral field at the Sugar Bowl. The spread is similar to the first meeting, with the Bulldogs opening -6 and now up to -6.5 for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff on New Year’s Day.
“All the money is for Georgia, which doesn’t surprise me,” Mucklow said. “You’ve given Kirby Smart three weeks to prepare for this game.”
Money Talks
Mucklow also ran through ranking the four CFP quarterfinals based on the amount of money each game is seeing so far.
“Alabama-Indiana is No. 1 by a distance. Then it’s Miami-Ohio State,” Mucklow said. “Then there’s a pretty significant gap to Ole Miss-Georgia, and another big gap to Oregon-Texas Tech. That’s the least popular of the four, by a distance.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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Previewing the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff
Dec. 27, 2025, 3:06 p.m. CT
The College Football Playoff has reached the quarterfinal round, after a mixed bag of first round matchups have landed us with eight teams remaining that can still win the national title. With less than a week left in the non-CFP bowl season, and the playoff ramping up, it’s time to take a look at all four second round matchups.
New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day will be the showcase for each of the quarterfinal games, and four iconic bowl games will be in the spotlight, determining who makes it to the semifinal round the following week. While our primary focus will be on the roster churn for the Oklahoma Sooners in the transfer portal and the players heading off to the pros, there’s no denying that there should be some great football to watch as the calendar turns to 2026.
Here are previews for each CFP quarterfinal game, as we’ll know college football’s final four teams by the end of Thursday night.
Cotton Bowl: Miami vs. Ohio State, Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. CT

Miami and Ohio State will kick off the quarterfinals in the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas on Wednesday night, with the winner heading to the Fiesta Bowl to take on the Ole Miss-Georgia winner. The Hurricanes went on the road in the first round and defeated Texas A&M, notching the program’s first-ever CFP win. Mario Cristobal campaigned hard for his team to make the playoff, and now they have a chance to pull off another upset in the second round.
Ryan Day and the Buckeyes last played in a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game, but they’re as dangerous as anyone in the field, and are one of the favorites to win it all again. With just one loss all season, they’re a talented and deep team that knows better than anyone how to navigate the 12-team CFP. Two high-powered offenses, led by productive quarterbacks in Carson Beck and Julian Sayin, should make this one a high-scoring affair.
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas Tech, Thursday at 11:00 a.m. CT

The Ducks and the Red Raiders will face off in the Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens, Florida on Thursday. The winner between two programs that have become a force in the NIL era of college football will face the Alabama-Indiana winner in the Peach Bowl. Oregon handled James Madison in the first round at home, but they weren’t satisfied with just getting that one win. Dan Lanning, quarterback Dante Moore, and the Ducks have as much firepower as any team in the country, and their talent may very well carry them far in this field.
Texas Tech is a program that suddenly has the talent to compete with the big boys in college football, and they were clearly the Big 12’s best team in 2025. Joey McGuire’s team earned a bye in their first-ever CFP appearance, and it could be how quarterback Behren Morton and the Tech offense handle one of the best defenses in the country on the other side. The start of a triple-header of CFP quarterfinals on Thursday has plenty of intrigue baked into it.
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Indiana, Thursday at 3:00 p.m. CT

The Rose Bowl features a great matchup between Alabama and Indiana on Thursday in Pasadena, California. Whoever can find a way to win this game will head to the Peach Bowl, and will play the Oregon-Texas Tech winner. The Crimson Tide won on the road in the first round, defeating Oklahoma. Kalen DeBoer’s squad looked like the ‘Bama team from earlier this season for the final 2 and 1/2 quarters in that game, and quarterback Ty Simpson and the Tide offense played excellent football after falling behind.
On the other side, Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers are the No. 1 team in the country, the only unbeaten FBS team to this point in 2025, and they boast the Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Despite all of that, it’s Alabama that boasts more overall team talent, and their stingy defense should be a great matchup against an explosive and dynamic offense from Indiana. One of the great settings in all of college football gets a doozy again in 2025.
Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Georgia, Thursday at 7:00 p.m. CT

The Sugar Bowl gives us a rematch from one of the best games of the regular season between Ole Miss and Georgia. Whoever wins this clash in New Orleans, Louisiana on Thursday night will play the Miami-Ohio State winner in the Fiesta Bowl. The Rebels are still in the aftermath of the Lane Kiffin departure, but Pete Golding’s team dominated Tulane in the first round at home. Led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and a wide-open offense, the Rebs are playing with a lot of confidence right now.
Their only loss all season came that the hands of Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs. That game was an instant classic in Athens, with the ‘Dawgs coming back to win, despite trailing in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Gunner Stockton and the offense have gotten better and better as the season has gone on, and this team appears to be in a better position than they were in 2024. Can Ole Miss’ high-octane offense avenge the October loss, or will Georgia’s stifling defense stand tall and advance to the semifinals?

Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Aaron on X@Aaron_Gelvin.
NIL
‘Dumbest Thing in the World,’ CFB Agent Reacts to Transfer Portal Changes amid NIL
The new changes to the transfer portal window were put in place with the intention of making things easier for both coaches and athletes, but some haven’t viewed the changes as a positive.
Per The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel, one agent said, “nothing has changed, except kids aren’t able to take visits.” The agent added that “it’s the dumbest thing in the world.”
Previously, there were two transfer portal windows: one being a 20-day window in December and the other being a 10-day window in April. As of October, there is now just one transfer portal window, which is Jan. 2-16 this year.
Athletes playing on a team that undergoes a coaching change are given a 15-day transfer portal window that begins five days after a new coach is hired. Players who are participating in the College Football Playoff but choose to transfer during the January window are allowed to stay with their teams through the end of the season.
On the surface, the change would seemingly be a net positive for all parties, but apparently it still needs some tweaking.
NIL
4,000-yard QB heavily linked to major college football program in transfer portal
A shuffling of quarterbacks is coming to college football in 2026.
In the Power Four ranks, quarterbacks such as Rocco Becht, Josh Hoover, Dylan Raiola and Brendan Sorsby are looking for new schools to play for next season.
While the Power Four quarterbacks are dominating the spotlight, there are a number of Group of Five starters looking to increase their exposure at Power Four programs in 2026.
One quarterback who will depart from a Group of Five school when the transfer portal opens is UNLV starter Anthony Colandrea. He will have one season of eligibility remaining at his third school.
One school of interest that has emerged for Colandrea since he decided to leave UNLV is Florida State.
Pete Nakos of On3 reported that Florida State is interested in Colandrea as its starter in 2026.
Should Colandrea transfer to Florida State for the 2026 football season, he would join a growing number of quarterbacks who have transferred to the Seminoles in the last five seasons.
James Blackman was the last quarterback recruited out of high school to start at the beginning of a season for Florida State all the way back in 2020. Since Blackman, Mike Norvell has added Jordan Travis (Louisville), DJ Uiagelelei (Clemson and Oregon State), and Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) from the transfer portal to the Seminoles.

The 6-foot, 205-pounder began his college football journey with Tony Elliott at Virginia in 2023. Tony Muskett started that season at quarterback, but a combination of injuries and inconsistency gave Colandrea the opportunity to play in seven games. He threw for 1,958 yards, 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions while rushing for 225 yards.
Colandrea played in 11 of the Cavaliers’ 12 games in the 2024 season. He passed for 2,125 yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while rushing for 277 yards and two touchdowns. He transferred to UNLV the following offseason.
The Rebels gave Colandrea the starting role over Michigan transfer Alex Orji after the first game. Colandrea passed for 3,459 yards, 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions while accumulating 649 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He guided UNLV to a 10-win season, a Mountain West Championship appearance and an appearance in the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl.
Colandrea received Mountain West Player of the Year and All-Mountain West First Team distinction for his heroics in 2025.
NIL
$2.5 million QB dealt reality check after decision to enter transfer portal
Fox Sports college football analyst RJ Young delivered a harsh assessment of a high-profile quarterback who holds a $2.5 million NIL valuation from On3. This signal-caller recently decided to enter the transfer portal, a move that sparked significant conversation regarding loyalty and team building in the modern era. Young suggests the decision transforms the player from a program cornerstone into a temporary asset.
The analyst noted that the athlete’s next destination will likely view him as a transient piece rather than a long-term solution. This contrasts sharply with the fanbase he is leaving behind because they believed he would play a central role in restoring their program to national title contention.
The quarterback had originally arrived with immense expectations and family ties that carried unique prestige at his former school.
Young argued that the player had everything he requested at his previous stop, including a relative on the coaching staff. By exiting the program now, the standout leaves behind an unfinished job regarding a College Football Playoff invitation despite helping the team reach its first bowl game in eight years.
Analyst details financial, competitive implications of transfer decision
The subject of this scrutiny is Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola. He famously flipped his commitment from the Georgia Bulldogs and the Ohio State Buckeyes before landing in Lincoln. Young’s critique centered on the shift in how Raiola will be perceived moving forward.
“Wherever he lands next will greet him as a rental, unlike Huskers fans who believed he would play a large role in their return to national title contention,” Young said.
The analyst emphasized the unique situation Raiola abandoned.

“Raiola had everything he asked for at Nebraska,” Young said. “As a legacy with an uncle coaching the offensive line, his name carries a prestige in Lincoln that it does not anywhere else in the country.”
Fox Sports college football analyst Laken Litman also weighed in on the situation. She noted the massive expectations placed on the young passer when he arrived on campus.
“The 6-foot-3, 230-pound quarterback was supposed to be the star that would lead Nebraska’s resurgence alongside head coach Matt Rhule,” Litman said.
Raiola started as a freshman and threw for 2,819 yards in 2024. However, his second season did not go exactly as planned after he broke his leg against the USC Trojans. Litman pointed out that external factors likely influenced the departure.
“However, this year didn’t go as planned,” Litman said. “He broke his leg in a loss to USC that sidelined him for the rest of the season, and then couple that with Nebraska firing its offensive line coach, who is his uncle, and his brother de-committing from the 2026 recruiting class, and the decision starts making sense.”

Young added that the initial excitement blinded many to the quarterback’s history of movement.
“The admiration Cornhuskers fans laid on Raiola allowed many Nebraska fans to forget he transferred programs twice in high school and flipped his commitment three times as a prep player,” Young said. “Because his decision to play for the Huskers felt like the one that would stick.”
The Cornhuskers will face the Utah Utes in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 31 at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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