NIL
There's hope! Ten SEC teams' percent chance to chase College Football Playoff

The stat nerd has spoken.ESPN’s Bill Connelly sets the industry standard for analytical preview content. His latest batch of metrics includes a look at SEC teams’ percentage chance of finishing the regular season 10-2 or better.
Why 10-2? Well, because of the theory that any SEC team that finishes 10-2 or better is a strong candidate to make the 12-team playoff.
A 9-3 record would give some SEC teams a chance at playoff qualification, but 10-2 is a golden ticket.
Connelly’s latest formula gives 10 SEC teams a 5% chance or better of finishing at least 10-2.
Strictly speaking, these percentages do not represent the chance that a team will make the playoff — only its chance of finishing 10-2 or better.
With that in mind, let’s review the percentage chance of SEC teams to finish 10-2 or better:
My take: Per Connelly’s metric, Alabama has the best chance of any SEC team to go 10-2 or better. My gut, which isn’t beholden to analytics, disagrees. The Crimson Tide’s schedule includes road games at Georgia and Auburn. My bigger reason to dial down this percentage, though, is the unproven starting quarterback.
Texas (61%)
My take: With a loaded roster led by quarterback Arch Manning, I’d be tempted to make Texas my preseason No. 1 team. Nevertheless, this percentage seems spot-on. A schedule that includes road land mines at Ohio State, Georgia and Florida creates the possibility of Texas losing three or more games.
Georgia (61%)
My take: This percentage seems a touch high. Why? Like Alabama, I’m not sold on Georgia’s quarterback situation. Gunner Stockton looked the part of sufficient backup last season. Is he ready for a star turn? I’m unconvinced. The Bulldogs enjoy the benefit of playing at home against their toughest opponents: Texas, Alabama and Mississippi.
[ This column first published in our SEC Unfiltered newsletter, emailed free to your inbox five days a week. Want more commentary like this? Sign up here for our newsletter on SEC sports. It’s free. ]
My take: Count Ole Miss among my playoff sleepers. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels received oodles of playoff hype last summer and came up a victory short. In an overcorrection, the hype machine produced crickets for this Ole Miss squad. Quarterback Austin Simmons headlines my list of potential breakout performers, and although the roster experienced plenty of turnover, there’s enough talent and a favorable schedule to chase 10-2, making this a spot-on percentage.
Tennessee (33%)
My take: Connelly’s metric meter must like transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar a lot to give the Vols this much of a chance. Manageable though the schedule is, Tennessee lost a lot of production from its 2024 playoff team. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava added another hurdle in mid-April by speeding off to UCLA.
LSU (30%)
My take: I’d rank LSU inside the top 10 of my national championship contenders list. The Tigers boast a proven quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, plus talented receivers, and the nation’s No. 1-ranked transfer class, including newcomers who should elevate the defense. So, why do I say this percentage seems about right? Because LSU’s schedule includes Clemson, Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Mercy.
Florida (18%)
My take: Too high. Florida rivals Oklahoma in the toughest-schedule debate. The Gators are one of three SEC teams that will play 10 games against Power Four opponents. They’ll play seven games against teams that will be ranked in the preseason Top 25. And they weren’t particularly active in the transfer portal. I like quarterback DJ Lagway. Don’t like the chance of 10-2, though, with this schedule.
Auburn (13%)
My take: I’ll buy this one. Auburn’s two toughest opponents, Georgia and Alabama, will come to the Plains. Beat one, and there’s a lane to 10-2. The Tigers underachieved last season. They should improve on a 5-7 record. All the way to 10 wins? That’s a long shot, but there’s a chance. Say, about a 13% chance.
Oklahoma (9%)
My take: I agree with this percentage. This is what Florida’s ought to be, considering these two face the nation’s toughest schedules. Transfer quarterback John Mateer offers hope of improvement in Norman, but the schedule tamps down the odds of that improvement reaching 10-2.
Missouri (5%)
My take: Missouri lost a lot of offensive production. Former Penn State backup Beau Pribula stands first in line for the quarterback reins. How he fares will influence Missouri’s fate. Including bowl results, it won at least 10 games each of the past two seasons, so I’ll buy this 1-in-20 shot of going 10-2.
Notable by omission
Connelly did not list South Carolina or Texas A&M among his teams with at least a 5% chance of going 10-2 or better. Their percentages were not listed, along with Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. No objection on that final quartet, but I struggle to understand the Gamecocks and Aggies not checking in with at least a 5% chance of 10 wins. They combined for 17 victories last season.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
NIL
College Football TV Ratings: Army-Navy Game averages 7.84 million viewers
Once again in its standalone window, America’s Game came down to the wire last week. Ultimately, Navy got a second straight victory over Army, and it became CBS’ most-watched college football game of the season.
An average of 7.84 million people watched as Navy came away with the victory at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. While it’s a 17% decrease from last year’s 9.4 million viewers – the best since at least 1990 – it’s still the second-best viewership for the game since 2018, according to Sports Business Journal’s Austin Karp.
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Last year’s Army-Navy game topped the previous high mark of 8.45 million viewers in 1992. In addition, it tops CBS’ slate of games this year, beating out the 5.6 million viewers who watched Indiana at Oregon in Week 7, according to data compiled by On3.
This year’s Army-Navy game also marked the last for CBS analyst Gary Danielson in the booth. He has worked 17 matchups between the two programs and will get ready for retirement following the Sun Bowl later this month. Charles Davis is set to join Brad Nessler in CBS’ lead booth starting next season.
With the victory, Navy extended its advantage in the all-time series against Army, which dates back to 1890. The Midshipmen have an all-time 64-55-7 record against the Black Knights.
How it happened: Navy defeats Army
Navy struck first in the first quarter of last week’s game, taking a 7-0 lead on a Blake Horvath touchdown. But Army responded with 13 points in the second quarter, including a rushing touchdown from Cale Hellums, to take the lead into halftime.
The two teams traded field goals in the third quarter as Army took a 16-10 lead into the final 15 minutes. That’s when Navy completed the comeback as Eli Heidenreich caught the 8-yard touchdown pass from Horvath, putting the Midshipmen back on top, 17-16. That held as the final, giving Navy a second straight win over Army in the historic game.
Horvath led the charge for Navy, rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on the ground while adding 82 passing yards to go with the touchdown pass to Heidenrich. On the Army side, Hellums had 100 rush yards and a touchdown to go with 82 passing yards.
Both Army and Navy are now getting ready for their respective bowl games. The Midshipmen will head to the Liberty Bowl on Jan. 2, 2026 against Cincinnati while the Black Knights will square off against UConn in the Fenway Bowl on Dec. 27.
NIL
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin Announces NIL News Before College Football Playoff
Julian Sayin is looking to lead the Ohio State Buckeyes to the national title alongside several other stars like wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
Ohio State heads into the College Football Playoff with one of the best rosters in the country, starring Sayin and Smith along with wide receiver Carnell Tate, safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Arvell Reese.
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They’re heading into the playoffs as the No. 2 seed after losing to Indiana in the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes will have a bye week to begin the CFP.
Other teams that will benefit from the bye week include Indiana, Texas Tech and Georgia.
During his time off, Sayin shared some exciting news off the field. The Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback has partnered with Wingstop and Dr Pepper in his latest NIL deal.
“Postseason calls for big plays with @drpepper and @wingstop, had to get the play card out,” Sayin posted.
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Sayin committed to Ohio State after spending some time with the Alabama Crimson Tide.
While he was planning his college football career at Alabama, he made the move to the Big Ten and finished his first season as the starting quarterback as a Heisman Trophy finalist.
Sayin was ranked as the No. 1 quarterback and the No. 6 overall player in the 2024 recruiting class, per 247Sports.
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Before signing his latest NIL deal and sharing the news with fans online, Julian Sayin had inked deals with The Foundation, Dick’s Sporting Goods and JLab Audio.
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Related: Alabama Reacts to Ty Simpson News Before College Football Playoff
Related: SEC Program Fires Coach After College Football Season
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 16, 2025, where it first appeared in the College section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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Stars Stay, Others Head to Portal
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Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion has ‘not made a decision’ regarding future
Dec. 16, 2025, 5:06 a.m. CT
Texas A&M’s 2025 offense finished the regular season ranked 19th nationally, while starting quarterback Marcel Reed threw for a career high 2,932 yards and 25 touchdowns, with 13 going to star wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, who completely rejuvenated a passing attack that failed to move the needle in key games down the stretch last season.
While Craver is expected to return next season for his all-important junior year, Concepcion has a choice to make regarding his future, choosing between a final year in College Station or declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft, where he is expected to be a first or second-round selection.
Whatever choice he makes is entirely up to him and his family, and while those of us in the media have written numerous articles about his draft standing, returning for his senior season could benefit his NFL future. Still, Concepcion is as mature as they come and is entirely focused on facing the Miami Hurricanes this Saturday during the first round of the College Football Playoff.
On Monday, Concepcion took questions from the media ahead of the game and was asked about his potential return or a draft declaration.
“I have not made a decision yet.”
“Talking with my coaches, talking with my parents. We’re going to put our trust in God. Whatever He has in store for my future, we’re going to go like that.”
In today’s college football landscape, NIL deals have made returning for a final season much more appealing than the old structure, so a return in 2026 is not out of the question. However, Concepcion is viewed as one of the top prospects for his elite versatility as an NFL slot receiver and as a Day 1 punt return specialist.
This decision will be saved for the offseason, because defeating Miami and making it to the CFP Quarterfinals is all that matters right now.
Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty.
NIL
Josh Pate defends Joel Klatt amid G5 backlash, proposes second tier to College Football Playoff
FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt found himself in a social media firestorm after comments he made about the Group of Five on a podcast appearance on Next Round Live. Clips of that interview quickly went viral with short snippets of some of the quotes.
The gist of those snippets suggested that Klatt was anti-G5, to the point of wanting the G5 kicked out of the College Football Playoff. Klatt intimated that the only thing keeping the G5 in the playoff currently is the threat of litigation.
College football analyst Josh Pate had his own thoughts on Joel Klatt’s take. He mostly came to the defense of the suddenly targeted analyst.
Pate first played a couple clips from Klatt’s appearance in their entirety. That offered more full context.
“Some of that was insane, I’m going to grant you that,” Pate said of Klatt’s points. “I just want to say the foundation of it I at least understand. The foundation of it is sound. Not all the parts of it. The foundation of it is sound.
“Couple of quotes there. No. 1, the G5 is in the College Football Playoff to avoid litigation is basically true.”
Pate lambasted the use of quote edits in condensing Joel Klatt’s much larger point into a few soundbites. He tried to explain how that’s misleading to his viewers.
“You know sometimes how you see a snapshot or a small soundbite of something and you get outraged by it and then you go on to learn the context of it two weeks later and you’re like, ‘Wow, I probably shouldn’t have gotten as outraged as I did over that,’ Pate said. “That is what is happening to Klatt. Admittedly he brought a lot of this on himself. …
“Now, what you probably saw was you probably saw quote edits like this or quote graphics like this. And if you’re listening on podcast just imagine scrolling through your social feed and there’s a picture of Klatt, looks like he’s somewhere sunny and happy and there’s a quote at the top, and it says, quote, ‘We don’t want Cinderellas. We want the best teams playing each other at the end. It’s the dumbest tournament and the least fair tournament in all of sports.’”
That part from Joel Klatt, obviously, was what many detractors latched onto. But it doesn’t take away from Klatt’s overall point about the G5, Pate pointed out.
So all the moaning over James Madison being in the playoffs is for naught. That’s just the way the current structure is set up.
“They are present in the playoff, they’re granted an auto bid in the playoff because if they are not then lawsuits will be filed immediately,” Pate said. “So that part’s accurate.
“Now whether or not you think it’s morally sound that they’re included in the playoff, that’s your own opinion. He’s got his, I’ve got mine, you’ve got yours. But he is right. Because in no other merit-based world where we just judged these teams on a static scale of quality, of resources and therefore what you do with the resources, and the results on the field and strength of schedule, in no world would James Madison be in the playoff. But the parameters of the playoff right now are that we take the five highest-ranked conference champs. So by every current rule James Madison is in the playoff and should be in the playoff. I don’t disagree with that. Tulane is in the playoff and should be in the playoff. I don’t disagree with the structure. I don’t disagree with the body of the playoff this year based on the current rules.”
So what’s the solution? Well, Joel Klatt also offered an answer for that. It just didn’t happen to go viral with the other stuff.
Klatt believes the G5 should effectively break off from the power conferences and host its own playoff. It would be a playoff tier between the FCS and the FBS.
“That’s been the same point that’s been made on my show,” Pate said. “So you notice if you really hated the G5 you’d just say, ‘Piss on the G5.’ That’s not what he did, despite the fact that that part didn’t get shared widely and it’s not what I’ve ever done on this show.
“Any time you have a problem with something, you ought to have a solution for it. So if your problem is, ‘Man, it makes little sense that we’ve got 136 teams pretending to play the same caliber of the sport’ you need to have a solution. That solution he just presented is the same one we’ve shared on this show, and that is a G5 playoff.”
NIL
How NIL has transformed Ohio State’s recruiting from star-chasing to strategic roster building
COLUMBUS, Ohio — The days of simply collecting as many five-star talents as possible in college football recruiting are over.
In a revealing Buckeye Talk podcast episode, Ohio State analysts Stephen Means and Andrew Gillis detailed how the program has shifted to a more sophisticated “roster construction” approach that mirrors NFL team building more than traditional college recruiting.
“I think that because the financial aspect has come into this but also just logical roster building that has become more of a focal point than star, star, star, star, stars,” explained Stephen Means. “Because for a long time, college football was like, get as much talent as you humanly can, develop it, cuz you were living in a world where the top 1% of college football had all the talent. And that’s not true anymore.”
This fundamental shift in philosophy is perhaps most evident in how Gillis described Ohio State’s running back recruiting needs for the 2027 class. While five-star David Gabriel Georgees tops their board, the approach is more nuanced than just stacking elite talent.
“If they got three five stars running backs, the odds that we got on this podcast and said that’s actually probably not that good is higher than it might seem because we were saying why is your asset management this? Like because hey, look at your your receiver recruiting was down. You couldn’t have spent some of that money on a receiver,” Gillis explained.
The financial component of recruiting has transformed how Ohio State approaches each position group and recruiting class. It’s no longer just about who’s the best player available, but whether investing heavily in one position might shortchange another.
“It is a math equation. It is a money equation at this point. You’re not going to go get three five stars at running back in a single class,” Gillis emphasized.
Means further elaborated on how NIL money has forced this change: “You can’t pay a fivestar recruit, fivestar recruit money and then have the guy sitting on the bench because there’s another guy with there’s only so much money to go around.”
This strategic approach has Ohio State looking at players through different lenses: “ready to go” immediate contributors (typically five-stars and top-100 recruits), “developmental” prospects (usually ranked 200-350 nationally), and “depth” pieces who might be ranked lower but fill specific roles.
The analysts identified several instances where this approach is evident in Ohio State’s 2027 planning. At quarterback, they’re content with a developmental prospect in Brady Edmonds rather than chasing another five-star. At wide receiver, despite already having five-star Jir Brown committed, they believe Ohio State needs another elite receiver plus two depth pieces to properly structure the room.
“Now we are talking about roster construction,” Means said. “And the reason why we structured it this way is okay, they went and got a devel they have a developmental quarterback in 2027. They probably need a ready to go quarterback in 2028 and they probably need a depth quarterback in 2029. And the cycle continues, right?”
This staggered approach ensures Ohio State will have players at different stages of development at every position, creating a sustainable pipeline of talent ready to contribute when needed.
“Everybody everybody’s running the same race, but they can’t be running it at the same pace or you’re not going to have a team to field every single year,” Means added.
The conversation revealed how Ohio State’s recruiting approach now more closely resembles NFL roster management, with considerations for “salary cap” (NIL budget), positional value, and development timelines all factoring into decisions that previously might have been simply about collecting the highest-ranked players available.
As college football continues to evolve in the NIL era, this strategic roster construction philosophy may become the new standard for elite programs looking to maintain sustainable success.
Here’s the podcast for this week:
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