The San Diego Padres are 26-31 since April 14. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 25-30 since April 17. We’re cherry-picking dates, sure, but the point is that both teams sputtered after hot starts. And that’s not the only thing they have common.
Both clubs feature two quality starting pitchers who are eligible for free agency, one of whom is an underperforming ace. And both are run by general managers who are more inclined to buy than sell, and ultimately could end up doing both.
The deadline is still six weeks away. The fortunes of many teams might change, for better or worse. But both the Padres and Diamondbacks are dealing with significant pitching injuries, making it all the more difficult to gain traction in a division that includes the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Devers – er, Giants.
Padres manager Mike Shildt acknowledged Wednesday that right-hander Michael King is expected to be out through at least the All-Star break with a pinched nerve in his throwing shoulder. Righty Yu Darvish has yet to pitch this season because of recurring elbow inflammation. And righty Joe Musgrove is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October.
The Diamondbacks’ staff also is in bad shape. Staff ace Corbin Burnes and top reliever Justin Martinez recently underwent season-ending elbow surgeries. Another top reliever, A.J. Puk, has been out since April with a flexor strain. And lefty Jordan Montgomery underwent Tommy John surgery at the start of the season.
Undaunted, Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen recently told MLB Network, “Look, as long as we’re playing well, and I believe that this team has the gas in the tank to go get it, we’re going to try to add to this team.”
Padres GM A.J. Preller has not made the same kind of public declaration, but the entire industry knows his intentions. And they almost certainly do not include the word “sell.”
For all their mediocrity the past two months, the Padres currently hold the third NL wild-card spot, and the Diamondbacks are only three games back. Imagine where the Padres might be if ace right-hander Dylan Cease’s ERA wasn’t 4.69. Imagine where the D-Backs might be if ace right-hander Zac Gallen’s ERA wasn’t 5.19. Both of their expected ERAs are lower. But neither has resembled the top-five NL Cy Young finisher each was in two of the past three years.
The Diamondbacks’ need is obvious – pitching, both starting and relief. The Padres, in addition to a starter, also could use a left fielder, a bench bat and possibly another reliever for their overworked bullpen.
Before the season, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Arizona’s system fourth in the majors, citing its strong young pipeline of young hitters, and placed San Diego only 25th. Hazen also can trade Eugenio Suárez, a potential free agent, to open third base for top prospect Jordan Lawlar. Suárez has 22 homers and an .846 OPS. His upbeat personality elevates the clubhouse. But subtracting from their top-five offense might be necessary for the Diamondbacks to improve the pitching.
Preller’s creativity, meanwhile, will face a new test. Perhaps he could deal from the deepest part of his roster and trade closer Robert Suarez, but such a move would further tax the bullpen. Any discussions also would be muddied by Suarez’s contract, which includes $8 million player options for 2026 and ‘27 that he must exercise or decline simultaneously after the World Series. Oh, and another thing: Since May 11, Suarez has a 7.45 ERA.
The potential losses of Suarez, Cease and King in free agency raise concerns for the Padres beyond 2025. But Preller, as always, will concern himself with the future later.
Barring collapses, both he and Hazen will go for it. The question is how.
Giants focusing within
No baseball transaction is made in a vacuum. But the Giants’ trade for Rafael Devers wasn’t predicated on a belief that the Padres and Diamondbacks soon might decline. Nor was it a reaction to the Dodgers’ never-ending buildup, which should enable L.A. to remain a powerhouse for the foreseeable future.
As Giants GM Zack Minasian can attest, trying to forecast a rival’s fate often is futile. Minasian was with the Milwaukee Brewers when the Chicago Cubs won the 2016 World Series and seemed to be on the verge of a dynasty. It didn’t turn out that way.
Rafael Devers is 3 for 11 with one RBI in his first three games with the Giants. (Bob Kupbens-Imagn Images)
With the Devers move, the Giants simply acted like any team wanting to win, trying to make their roster as strong as possible. Their long-term lineup will feature a nucleus of Devers, center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and first-base prospect Bryce Eldridge from the left side, shortstop Willy Adames, third baseman Matt Chapman and left fielder Heliot Ramos from the right. And, of course, catcher Patrick Bailey, infielder Casey Schmitt and others also figure to contribute.
The Giants still need one more bat, ideally at second base, where they entered Thursday with the fourth-worst OPS in the majors. The closest thing to a second baseman in the first installment of The Athletic’s Top 30 trade candidates was the infielder at No. 29, Baltimore’s Ramon Urías, who has played mostly third in his career. But perhaps opportunities will arise as the deadline gets closer.
The Devers deal easily could end up the biggest of the 2025 trading season. And a week ago, the idea of the Giants acquiring him was unimaginable.
White Sox willing to negotiate
Devers was valuable enough for the Boston Red Sox to insist upon the Giants taking the approximately $255 million remaining on his contract while absorbing only the approximately $32 million remaining on right-hander Jordan Hicks’ deal.
The Chicago White Sox recognize they are in no position to impose the same conditions on teams that express interest in their two most expensive players, outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Luis Robert Jr. In both cases, according to sources briefed on the team’s plans, the White Sox are open to including cash in trades.
Benintendi, 31, might be all but impossible to move. He is owed the balance of his $16.5 million salary this season, $16.5 next season and $14.5 million in 2027. No longer a quality defender, he derives almost all of his value from his left-handed bat, which is right around league average.
Robert, who turns 28 on Aug. 3, is somewhat more attractive, a plus defender in center who has stolen 21 bases in 26 attempts. But while batting .192 with six homers and a .581 OPS, he, too, holds only so much appeal. The White Sox would pay down his salaries to enhance their return.
The terms of Robert’s contract, which includes the balance of his $15 million salary this season, plus separate $20 million options for 2026 and ‘27, would complicate any negotiations. An acquiring team might want to include contingencies under which the White Sox pay part of Robert’s salaries if they exercise his option years.
The White Sox actually might find it easier to move their two rental starting pitchers, right-hander Adrian Houser, who is on a $1.35 million deal, and righty Aaron Civale, who is earning $8 million.
Neither is anything close to an ace. Houser, though, has a 2.15 ERA in five starts. And the White Sox acquired Civale in part because they projected he would have more value at the deadline than the player they traded for him, first baseman/outfielder Andrew Vaughn.
Another option for the White Sox is to keep one or both pitchers, helping reduce the burden on their younger starters in the second half.
Mets could deal from strength
Look for the New York Mets to again leverage their pitching-rich farm system.
After trading multiple minor-league pitchers last year, the Mets possess enough attractive arms in their farm system to supplement their roster without dealing their top pitching prospects, rival evaluators familiar with the organization said.
The Mets traded four minor-league pitchers last year: Tyler Stuart (for Jesse Winker), Kade Morris (Paul Blackburn), Paul Gervase (Tyler Zuber) at the deadline and Eric Orze (Jose Siri) over the offseason.
While all teams rank prospects from other clubs differently, four evaluators from separate organizations agreed that only Stuart and Orze belonged on a list of the top 15 pitching prospects in the Mets’ farm system last year. If all four pitchers remained in the system this year, only Stuart would crack the backend of the ranking, the evaluators said.
“Such depth, especially with arms that other clubs like, makes them all the more dangerous when you add that they can probably take on money because of their owner and they’re led by David Stearns in a good front office,” one National League GM said.
The Mets are monitoring the market for help in center field and the bullpen, league sources said. Speculatively, other possible and more expensive targets such as a frontline starter may emerge.
The Mets’ consensus top pitching prospects are Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Jonathan Santucci, Blade Tidwell and Nate Dohm.
Last summer, the Mets addressed modest needs such as middle relievers, rotation depth and a designated hitter through the depth of their farm system. This year, other clubs like a bunch of their pitchers beyond any public top-25 list. Zach Thornton, Douglas Orellana and others stir intrigue.
Why Royals are reluctant to move a starter
Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. last season finished with an OPS+ 73 percent above league average, a performance that might have earned him American League MVP if not for the exploits of Aaron Judge.
Different story this season. Witt entered Thursday with an OPS+ a mere 28 percent above league average. Still good, but not great. And one reason the Royals ranked 29th in runs per game, ahead of only the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Bobby Witt Jr. is finally starting to recapture the form that made him the runner-up in AL MVP voting in 2024. (Jerome Miron-Imagn Images)
The good news is that Witt, according to a club official, recently found something in his work with the team’s hitting coaches and biomechanical experts. He made an adjustment that put him in better position to hit, and in the past four games is 7-for-15 with a home run and three doubles.
The Royals, though, need more than just Witt to get hot. While they are only 1 1/2 games back in the race for the final AL wild-card spot, they’re wasting a rotation that entered Thursday ranked fourth in ERA. So it’s reasonable to ask, would they trade a starting pitcher to get the slugging outfielder they need?
At the moment, with left-hander Cole Ragans out until at least July with a rotator cuff strain, the question is premature. And even if Ragans returns by the deadline, any trade of a starter would risk compromising the Royals’ biggest strength – a rotation that, like all rotations, is inherently fragile.
The Royals at last year’s deadline acquired righty Michael Lorenzen to provide insurance in the event one of their starters was injured. It turned out Lorenzen himself got hurt, but the Royals re-signed him, in part to preserve their depth. Yet even now, they’re thin.
An injury to another starter might force the Royals to move Daniel Lynch IV or Angel Zerpa to the rotation, weakening their bullpen. Before doing that, though, they probably would try left-hander Rich Hill, 45, who produced a 4.50 ERA over eight innings in his first two starts for them at Triple A.
A dramatic improvement for Angels
Through May 17, the Los Angeles Angels’ 7.04 bullpen ERA was the worst in the majors. But from May 18 through Wednesday, their bullpen ERA was 2.79, ranking fifth overall. And that was without right-hander Ben Joyce, who went on the injured list April 11 and underwent season-ending shoulder surgery.
Journeyman righty Hunter Strickland has played a key role in the bullpen’s resurgence, pitching 14 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings. Ryan Zeferjahn’s overall ERA is 4.61 ERA overall, but 2.18 in wins. And perhaps the biggest difference is left-hander Reid Detmers, who has emerged as a late-inning force.
Detmers, who had a 6.70 ERA in 17 starts last season and a 10.05 ERA after his first 12 relief appearances, has since worked 13 consecutive scoreless innings, earning two saves in the process. The Angels still see him as a future starter. But if he ends up a dominant late-inning reliever, they won’t complain.
As for the deadline, the Angels’ roster includes a number of trade candidates on expiring contracts (infielder Luis Rengifo, lefty Tyler Anderson, closer Kenley Jansen), as well as outfielder Taylor Ward, who is under club control for one additional season. But even after Thursday’s 7-3 loss to the New York Yankees, the Angels are only two games out in the race for the final AL wild-card spot.
If they stay even reasonably close, selling is the last thing owner Arte Moreno will do.
Buying? And then, if the team falters, dumping before the Aug. 31 deadline for players to be eligible for postseason rosters?
It could be 2023 all over again!
And finally…
As bad as some teams are, the rule that every club must be represented at the All-Star Game borders on ridiculous. The White Sox, though, could produce an intriguing All-Star story.
The team leader in fWAR, right-hander Shane Smith, is a Rule 5 pick from the Milwaukee Brewers. Per STATS Perform, the last Rule 5 pick to make an All-Star team in the first year after he was selected in that draft was second baseman Dan Uggla with the Florida Marlins in 2006. Uggla also finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting that season.
White Sox third baseman Miguel Vargas, acquired at last year’s deadline in the three-team deal that cost the Sox right-hander Erick Fedde and reliever Michael Kopech, is the team’s other leading All-Star contender.
(Top photo of Luis Robert Jr.: Jeff Dean/Getty Images)
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