This marks the last week of the 2024-25 athletic season for the Nevada Wolf Pack as track and field star Lilly Urban will compete at the NCAA Championship in javelin on Thursday in the last competition of the year for the school. We start this week’s Monday Mailbag looking further into the future with a question about where the Pac-12 and Mountain West are headed. Let’s dive into that. Thanks, as always, for the inquiries.

That’s a good question to ask and impossible one to answer. If you go back seven years ago and look at conference affiliations, there were 64 schools at the power-conference level. For the 2025 football season, there are 66 schools in those conferences. Of those 67, 17 are in different conferences than they were seven years ago. That’s more than a quarter of the schools, with the Pac-12 falling out of the power-conference column. Not many would have predicted that seven years before it happened. So, there’s no certainty when it comes to conference affiliations. But there is a trend of massive realignment every decade. And seven years from now will be roughly the decade mark from Texas and Oklahoma giving its notice it was leaving the Big 12 for the SEC, which triggered all of the most recent changes.

My best guess is the ACC ceases to exist as currently constructed by 2032, your seven-year figure. So, let’s say North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, Duke, Virginia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina State, Virginia and Pitt find new spots in the Big Ten, SEC or Big 12. That might be a touch high. Maybe it’s more like the top six on that list. But my point being the ACC destabilizes, which could be a good thing for the Pac-12, which could reclaim Stanford and Cal plus perhaps SMU, which might be in the mix for a power-conference spot at that point.

Here’s my best guess for the 2032-33 membership in the Pac-12 and MW:

Pac-12: Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Utah State, Stanford, Cal, Texas State, Gonzaga (non-football)

Mountain West: Air Force, Grand Canyon, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, Sac State, San Jose State, UC Davis, UNLV, UTEP, Wyoming, Northern Illinois (football only), North Dakota State (football only)

So, I have Texas State in the Pac-12 as a near-term addition with Stanford and Cal re-joining the league after the ACC destabilizes and falls from Power 4 status to Group of 5 status. In the MW, I have Sac State added as a full member and North Dakota State in football only. Other schools to watch for membership changes include Memphis, Tulane, UTSA and USF, from the American Athletic Conference, plus UNLV, which is trying to get a Big 12 invitation, and Air Force, which has shown its dissatisfaction with the MW from time to time. But I think the Big 12 holds out for ACC schools once that league starts to fracture rather than poaching UNLV. Ultimately, I think we’re headed to a Power 3 situation, and I think the Big 12 outlasts the ACC in that battle for the third spot at the table with the Big Ten and SEC.

More financial investment, more facility improvements, more good coaching. That’s the key to successful programs. It takes money. It takes a good infrastructure of facilities and amenities. And it takes good coaching. If I had to rank programs by odds of winning a Mountain West title next season, I’d go:

Not happening (0 percent): Women’s cross country; men’s cross country; women’s indoor track and field; women’s outdoor track and field (four)

Lloyd Christmas landing Mary Swanson (one in a million): Football; women’s soccer; volleyball; men’s golf (four)

Odds the San Francisco Giants win the World Series (2.5 percent, per FanGraphs): Women’s swim and dive; women’s basketball (two)

Odds the New York Mets win the World Series (10.0 percent per FanGraphs): Women’s golf (one)

Odds the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series (20.7 percent, per FanGraphs): Men’s tennis; men’s basketball (two)

Coin flip (50 percent of better): Baseball; softball; women’s tennis (three)

Fox Sports offered betting odds on that hypothetical bout from Rocky IV and had Rocky Balboa at +800 odds, so a roughly 11 percent likelihood of defeating Ivan Drago, which is in line with Mets winning the World Series this season. So, Nevada football has a better chance of making a bowl this season than Rocky had of beating Drago, and Rocky famously won that bout, so you’re telling me there’s a chance. My way-too-early Mountain West win totals had Nevada at 6-6 overall and 4-4 in conference. So, I have the Wolf Pack in a bowl.

No, I don’t think so. The Mountain West has nine football schools now, which is the ideal number for a traditional eight-game league schedule. I don’t see the MW adding any more football-only members in the short term, and Northern Illinois was more attractive than Toledo because (a) its football history is slightly better and (b) it’s closer to a major city, Chicago.

The issue with putting UNLV’s quarterback in my Mountain West QB rankings was the fact we don’t know who that person will be. That position will go to Michigan transfer Alex Orji or Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea. Orji is an unknown given his relatively sparse amount of playing time. He’s a former three-star recruit (No. 992 in the nation, 71st among quarterbacks) who has a career passer rating of 93.6 while completing just 54.2 percent of his passes for 3.2 yards per attempt. Those are atrocious numbers. But there seems to be untapped potential there, which is why I picked him to win the job over Colandrea, who is more proven with 4,083 passing yards and 26 touchdowns in two seasons at Virginia, albeit with 20 interceptions and a passer rating last year of 124.2 (which is not good). It is fair to point out Chubba Purdy’s career numbers are underwhelming, too, as he’s completed just 54.8 percent of his passes with more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (seven) and a career passer rating of 107 (also not good). My ranking him fifth in the MW was based on his running ability and Nevada’s proof-of-concept in coaching up Brendon Lewis last year. Certainly, Purdy could get hurt again or remain ineffective. But the same is true for Orji and Colandrea.

Here were my MW quarterback rankings, as posted with more detail last week.

1. Maddux Madsen, Boise State

2. E.J. Warner, Fresno State

3. Micah Alejado, Hawaii

4. Walker Eget, San Jose State

5. Chubba Purdy, Nevada

6. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, Colorado State

7. Alex Orji, UNLV

8. Kaden Anderson, Wyoming

9. Bryson Barnes, Utah State

10. Jack Layne, New Mexico

11. Quentin Hayes, Air Force

12. Jayden Denegal, San Diego State

There not much in the way of sure things here. The MW is not strong at quarterback this season, not it has not been the last couple of years.

Nevada ranked 129th out of 134 FBS teams in special teams efficiency last year, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. ESPN’s Bill Connelly projected Nevada for a SP+ special teams ranking of 129th out of 136 FBS schools this year. That’s an area that must improve. The Wolf Pack doesn’t have a kicker or punter on its roster who has played a game at the FBS level and also will break in a new long snapper. That’s not ideal. Punter returner Marcus Bellon could be All-MW good, and there are some kick-returning options (Ky Woods, Marquis Ashley, Charles Brown, Ashton Hayes). But the special teams must be better this year than it was last season when it cost the team big in losses to Colorado State and SMU.

Mountain West schools owe roughly $500,000 in back pay to athletes annually for each of the next 10 years. Is that fair? I guess. It seems like the power-conference schools should have been on the hook for a larger share of that back pay, but that’s not how things shook out since they’re in charge. I did have one former Nevada star ask me over the weekend if he was in line for money from this deal. Alas, he graduated in 2014, and the back pay only extends to athletes who competed from 2016-17 to 2024-25.

None of them?

Look, the House vs. NCAA settlement is not good for non-Power 4 schools. It’s increasing expenses exponentially while not creating new revenue sources to pay for those expenses. Nevada has basically run deficits annually for the last 15 to 20 years. It barely makes ends meet despite getting an additional $10 million in university money each of the last four years. I have no idea how the Wolf Pack is going to find the revenue-sharing numbers with its athletes, which could cost around $5 million per year if Nevada uses the NCAA formula of sharing 22 percent of its revenue plus the back pay that will be taken out of its NCAA distribution. The House case provides some clarity moving forward for Division I schools, but the revenue sharing is going to create staffing issues; increase internal arguments on which teams get how much; and hurt Olympic sports, not to mention create Title IX issues. I imagine most D-I athletics directors would prefer not to share revenue if given the option because they’ll be forced to cut costs elsewhere and try and raise revenue in the process. It’s a tough deal.

If you want one area where this settlement could potentially help mid-major schools like Nevada, it is the new roster limits. Some sports are getting reduced roster spots (like baseball), which could push more talent to lower-level schools. I guess that’s a potential plus.

There will not be contracted athletes as part of the House vs. NCAA settlement. Some schools have multi-year NIL deals with athletes that tie them to the school for multiple years. But, at this stage, college athletes are not employees of the school.

The Nevada-Fresno State semifinal of the Mountain West baseball tournament last month was exactly that. It was the championship game one round early.

If you want to go back a few years prior, I tweeted the Nevada-San Diego State men’s basketball semifinal in the 2018 Mountain West Tournament was the championship game, and then-New Mexico coach Paul Weir didn’t like that. The exact tweet read, “The MW title game is tomorrow at 6 p.m. Nevada versus SDSU. Should be fun.” After New Mexico beat Utah State in its semifinal, Weir said in his postgame presser, “Chris Murray might not think there’s a game tomorrow night, but we do. We’re excited to be here. We’re going to give it everything we’ve got. We’ve battled back from a lot, and that’s America. And if Chris Murray doesn’t want to believe in that, that’s fine. But we’re really looking forward to just giving it everything we’ve got tomorrow night. We’ve come a long way, and we’ll keep fighting.”

So, yes, the semifinal is the oftentimes the real championship game. That’s America.

Fun Fact: The Minnesota Timberwolves’ first season in 1989-90 had a three-person coaching staff in head coach Bill Musselman and assistants Tom Thibodeau and Bob Zuffelato. The second-year staff in 1990-91 included Bill Musselman as head coach and assistants Thibodeau and Eric Musselman. That was the former Nevada head coach’s first year in the NBA. So, Musselman and Thibodeau go back to the mullet days where that picture if probably from. Still, Thibodeau would have been fired either way because Knicks owner James Dolan is a bozo.

I haven’t heard anything since the day the Reno Redevelopment Agency board approved the public-money portion of the funding. At that point, GSR owner Alex Meruelo said ground would be broken in June — “Hell, yes, we’re breaking ground in June,” were his exact words. There are 21 days left in June, so this should be coming soon. We also should have some more news to report this week on Nevada’s indoor facility.

There’s no reason to get in the kitchen when playing pickleball, so I stayed out of there. I’m not dinking it into the kitchen every shot. That’s boring. It was a fun time. I met my boss, Anthony Resnick, at our community courts at 8 a.m. and other neighborhood folks showed up in mass around 8:45 a.m., so we weaved into their games and finished 4-2 overall, including 1-2 against the top-dog team. I then played with this nice grizzly bear of a man with a thick Eastern European accent named Ya Ya and went 1-1 with him against the big dogs on the court. I still prefer tennis, but I don’t really have anybody to play with, so pickleball was a nice way to get in three hours of Sunday morning exercise.

Thanks for reading!

See y’all next week!

Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. He writes a weekly Monday Mailbag despite it giving him a headache and it taking several hours to write. But people seem to like it, so he does it anyway. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.