This week’s NASCAR Cup Series race isn’t just another race: It’s the first leg of the league’s inaugural “In-Season Challenge,” a bracket-style competition with five rounds of eliminations, ending with the championship at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 27. It’s NASCAR’s take on the in-season tournament model long leveraged by international soccer and recently introduced to the NBA.
Starting this weekend at Atlanta, the next five Cup Series races make up the entire challenge: Atlanta, Chicago, Sonoma, Dover and Indianapolis.
Our motorsports experts Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi are here to explain how it works, who they think could win it and why it’s likely to be wildly unpredictable — nay, chaotic! Plus, they’ll run down their favorites and long shots for Saturday’s race in Atlanta.
Before we get to the Q&A and full explanation of how this all works, here’s a breakdown of the seeding and head-to-head matchups for the Challenge. Scroll to the end for how-to-watch info and odds.
NASCAR In-Season Challenge bracket, matchups
Top half of draw
- No. 1 Denny Hamlin vs. No. 32 Ty Dillon
- No. 16 Kyle Busch vs. No. 17 Brad Keselowski
- No. 8 Alex Bowman vs. No. 25 Joey Logano
- No. 9 Bubba Wallace vs. No. 24 Daniel Suárez
- No. 12 John Hunter Nemechek vs. No. 21 Josh Berry
- No. 5 Chase Elliott vs. No. 28 Austin Dillon
- No. 13 Ross Chastain vs. No. 20 Erik Jones
- No. 4 Christopher Bell vs. No. 29 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Bottom half of draw
- No. 2 Chase Briscoe vs. No. 31 Noah Gragson
- No. 15 Ryan Preece vs. No. 18 William Byron
- No. 7 Ryan Blaney vs. No. 26 Carson Hocevar
- No. 10 Kyle Larson vs. No. 23 Tyler Reddick
- No. 11 Michael McDowell vs. No. 22 AJ Allmendinger
- No. 6 Ty Gibbs vs. No. 27 Justin Haley
- No. 14 Zane Smith vs. No. 19 Austin Cindric
- No. 3 Chris Buescher vs. No. 30 Todd Gilliland
Q&A for the Challenge and Atlanta race
The time has finally arrived for the inaugural NASCAR In-Season Challenge. Remind us: What exactly is this thing?
Jeff: On his “Actions Detrimental” podcast two years ago, three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin proposed an idea: Why doesn’t NASCAR have some sort of head-to-head, in-season tournament that could be overlaid on the regular season races? NASCAR typically has a summer lull before the final push to the playoffs begins, and with few other sports on TV except for baseball after the NBA and NHL championships are decided, NASCAR should have a chance to draw a lot more eyeballs — especially from sports gamblers. So for two years, the driver hosted his “Denny Hamlin Bracket Challenge,” where fans could play along with picks over a stretch of races. It was unofficial, of course, but still made for good fun and conversation. Now, with new TV partner TNT, NASCAR has decided to officially do the bracket challenge as an in-season tournament. Drivers will compete in a March Madness-style bracket for the next five weeks, with the winner receiving a $1 million prize.
How do you think this is going to play out?
Jordan: There is genuine optimism that fans will buy in, creating excitement at a time of the season when NASCAR can hit a lull. And with the uniqueness of the five tracks that make up the challenge, there should be enough unexpected twists and turns to produce upsets and keep things interesting.
As for whether this enhances the on-track competition, there is doubt. Drivers and teams are already doing everything they can each week to run and finish as well as they can, so it’s hard to imagine that this challenge somehow pushes them even further. Nor is it likely that a team would potentially sacrifice a good finish by employing an out-of-the-box strategy in an attempt to advance to the next round, fearing that the call could backfire and potentially cost them valuable points.
When The Athletic has asked teams in recent weeks about how they’ll approach these races, every team said they were giving it no consideration and their focus was simply on running as well as they can each week. That said, let’s see if this changes at all in the later rounds, where winning the $1 million prize becomes more attainable.
The first round is being held at Atlanta, which is now a superspeedway. Considering the head-to-head matchups and the chaos that Atlanta usually brings, who are your favorites to make it to the next round, and who are a few long shots who might beat their rival?
Jeff: If you’re new to NASCAR — hi, first of all. Good news and bad news here. The good news is it’s going to be a wild race. A few years ago, Atlanta was reconfigured to be a “drafting” track like Daytona (if you’ve ever watched the Daytona 500) and Talladega. Big packs of cars and big crashes.
But the bad news is that those big crashes could easily take out some of the huge contenders. This is basically a wild-card round where a lot of top seeds will immediately be gone — and probably not even because they did anything incorrectly, other than be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
That said, some drivers are better than others at positioning themselves toward the front (where they have a better chance of avoiding crashes). I really like Austin Cindric (19 seed) in his matchup over Zane Smith (14) and Ross Chastain (13) over Erik Jones (20). Both of them should be in contention for the win, but the sportsbooks are onto them — both have terrible value and are -200 favorites or longer. In terms of upsets in the actual odds, my picks include John Hunter Nemechek (+150) over Josh Berry, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+150) over Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick (+120) over Kyle Larson and Justin Haley (+145) over Ty Gibbs.
Jordan: Any time NASCAR heads to a drafting track, Joey Logano is automatically considered one of the favorites to win. However, based on seeding alone, the No. 25-ranked Logano is an underdog against No. 8 Alex Bowman. But it would not be a surprise at all if Logano knocks Bowman off and advances. In fact, there is a strong possibility this will happen.
Another matchup to watch for is No. 28 Austin Dillon against No. 5 Chase Elliott. Although Elliott is strong on drafting tracks — he’s won at both Atlanta and Talladega — so too is Dillon. And with Dillon buried in points and needing a win to make the playoffs, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he’s more willing to take chances than Elliott, who’s in the hunt to win the regular season points championship.
What do you think is the most glaring mismatch in the seeding for Round 1? And which matchup is the toughest to call?
Jeff: If you haven’t followed this concept so far, the seeding is totally wacky. Instead of basing the seeding on the point standings (first through 32nd), NASCAR decided to seed the drivers based on their best finish over the last three races. The result is some frankly stupid matchups: Regular-season points leader William Byron is the No. 18 seed against No. 15 seed Ryan Preece — and yet Byron is a -220 favorite. Cindric is a -250 favorite over Smith, despite being a worse seed. Same with Joey Logano (-175), a No. 25 seed matched up against No. 8 seed Alex Bowman. I agree with the oddsmakers on all of those. But in terms of the toughest to call? Dang, that Bubba Wallace vs. Daniel Suárez matchup is a total tossup. Wallace is a great superspeedway racer, and Suárez has been great at Atlanta (including a win last year). Good luck figuring this one out.
Jordan: Sure, the Logano vs. Bowman noted above jumps out, but the fact that this is a drafting track means there are no glaring mismatches because of how unpredictable these types of races usually are. Many, many of the drivers seeded towards the bottom of the bracket are quite capable of winning at Atlanta, and it wouldn’t be at all shocking. It’s going to be fascinating to see what the bracket looks like and who’s left standing after the race.
OK, it’s prediction time: Who are your final four for the in-season tournament and who do you have winning it all?
Jeff: The way this bracket stacks up is absolutely, laughably, bonkers insane. A superspeedway chaos bomb to open it, followed by two road courses before we get to two “normal” tracks to end. By that time, a lot of the favorites (or big names at least) could easily have been eliminated. Picking these three tracks for the first three rounds was certainly a choice.
That said, my picks are probably a bit surprising. I’ve got one semifinal between Trackhouse Racing teammates Suárez (24) and Chastain (13) and the other between Tyler Reddick (23) and Michael McDowell (11). Then I’ve got Chastain and Reddick moving on from Dover into the final at Indianapolis, and Reddick winning it all. Which feels … not great! Reddick isn’t even running very well, and 23XI Racing doesn’t seem to have the same speed or momentum lately. Picking him is a strange choice, except I think the matchups favor him with the road courses, and then he’ll have enough speed on the ovals. I am worried about him immediately getting eliminated by Kyle Larson in Round 1 at Atlanta, of course.
Jordan: The Team Chaos committee welcomes NASCAR scheduling the challenge as it did with three “wildcard” tracks among the five. Bring on the chaos. The only quibble is that Talladega wasn’t included in place of Indianapolis or Dover to really amp up the chaos factor. As for what my bracket looks like: I have Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher and Kyle Larson in my final four. These four drivers are strong on just about every type of track, particularly road courses, which will go a long way to determining who makes the final four.
Now back to business as usual: Who is your favorite to win outright at Atlanta?
Jeff: As mentioned earlier about Cindric, he’s become known as maybe the best superspeedway racer of late. The three Team Penske drivers are the top three in odds, which makes sense, and Cindric is tied for second. But since superspeedways are so random, he’s still +1000. Could be a nice value there if he pulls through.
Jordan: Any one of Team Penske’s three drivers should be on anyone’s short list of favorites, with Cindric, Logano and Ryan Blaney so strong on these types of tracks. But Blaney has to be the pick. In the seven races at Atlanta since it was reconfigured, Blaney has finished outside the top 10 just once and has finished second, third and fourth in the past three races here.
Who is a long shot you like to win it?
Jeff: “Long shot” is a pretty tough definition this week since the odds are so long for almost everyone. Instead of going extreme, I’ll go somewhat realistic and say Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at +4000. Stenhouse is aggressive, he’s great at superspeedways and he’s in a must-win situation for the playoffs. Pull those belts tight if you’re around the No. 47 car, because he’s going to be going all out.
Jordan: With so many long-shot possibilities this week that could realistically cash in, here’s a few that pop out: Carson Hocevar (+2500), Bubba Wallace (+2800), Daniel Suárez (+2800), Michael McDowell (+4500), Ryan Preece (+5000) and Noah Gragson (+6500). All of these drivers have a reasonable chance of winning Saturday night.
How to watch the Quaker State 400
- Track: EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta Motor Speedway) — Hampton, Ga.
- Time: Saturday, June 28, 7 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
Race winner odds for Quaker State 400
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(Photo of Kyle Larson: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
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